国泰君安期货·能源化工 天然橡胶周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 日期：2025年9月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情走势 02 基本面数据 03 本周观点总结 04 行业资讯 期货价格 基差与月差 其他价差 替代品价格 资金动向 供给 需求 库存 本周观点总结 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 1.【泰国前8个月天胶、混合胶合计出口量同比增6.3%】最新数据显示，2025年前8个月，泰国出口天然橡胶（不含复合橡胶）合计为178.9万吨，同比降8%。 其中，标胶合计出口101.7万吨，同比降19%；烟片胶出口26.5万吨，同比增21%；乳胶出口49.6万吨，同比增9%。1-8月，出口到中国天然橡胶合计为69.6 万吨，同比增6%。其中，标胶出口到中国合计为43.3万吨，同比降18%；烟片胶出口到中国合计为8万吨，同比大增300%；乳胶出口到中国合计为18.1 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The overall performance of domestic rubber products has been flat, with the RU2601 contract facing resistance from previous high levels, and the market's ability to replicate last September's strong rally remains to be observed [1] - Supply from major producing regions is affected by weather conditions, leading to a decrease in Thai rubber prices to 54.2 THB/kg, down 15% from 64.4 THB/kg a year ago, while Yunnan rubber prices slightly increased by 0.7% to 14,500 CNY/ton [2] - Cumulative imports of natural rubber from January to July reached 1.6534 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 35.01%, while mixed rubber imports totaled 1.9067 million tons, up 12.47% year-on-year, indicating a total import growth of 21.92% [2] Group 2: Demand Dynamics - In July, there were signs of improvement in the market, with the capacity utilization rate of all-steel tires significantly increasing both month-on-month and year-on-year, and heavy truck sales showing a strong year-on-year growth [3] - Tire exports reached a record high in July, with 812,600 tons exported, representing an 8.87% month-on-month increase and an 11.48% year-on-year increase, while cumulative exports from January to July totaled 4.9339 million tons, up 7.18% year-on-year [3] - The inventory of sample enterprises for all-steel tires remains low, with available days of inventory at 39.22 days, down 0.23 days from the previous month and 4.12 days from the same period last year, indicating potential supply constraints [3] Group 3: Seasonal Trends and Future Outlook - Historically, there is a high probability of price increases for all-steel tire products before and after the Mid-Autumn Festival, as this period typically sees significant restocking by channels and end stores [4] - Continuous rainfall has disrupted natural rubber production in major producing areas, leading to supply increases falling significantly below expectations, while demand remains resilient with strong heavy truck sales [4] - The price trend of raw materials will be a key variable affecting future market conditions, with the recommendation for investors to maintain a low-position long strategy supported by both fundamental and macroeconomic factors [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The natural rubber market is expected to continue its weak consolidation in the short - term. The supply from the producing areas is increasing, raw material prices are falling, cost support is weakening, terminal demand is weak, and the market's bearish sentiment is rising [81][82]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - ANRPC predicts that global natural rubber production in 2025 will increase by 0.5% year - on - year to 1.4892 billion tons, and consumption will increase by 1.3% to 1.5565 billion tons. In June, production was expected to fall by 1.5% to 1.191 million tons, and consumption to rise by 0.7% to 1.271 million tons. The price showed a bearish trend due to supply improvement, rising port inventories, and trade tariff uncertainties [5]. - In the second quarter of 2025, the European replacement tire market sales decreased by 3.5% year - on - year to 57.044 million pieces. Except for motorcycle and scooter tires, the sales of other types of tires were lower than those in the first half of 2019 [6]. - In the first half of 2025, Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber increased by 13.2% year - on - year to 2.257 million tons, and exports to China increased by 35% to 1.423 million tons [7]. 3.2 Market Trends - This week, both domestic and foreign markets had a significant correction. On August 1, 2025, the closing prices of RU2509, NR2509, Singapore TSR20:2509, and Tokyo RSS3:2509 decreased by 8.18%, 8.60%, 8.11%, and 4.57% respectively compared with the previous period [10][11]. - The spreads of RU - NR, RU - BR, NR - SGX TSR20, and RU - JPX RSS3 narrowed. The spreads of whole milk - Thai mixed decreased, while the spreads of 3L - Thai mixed increased [21][30]. - The prices of substitute rubbers such as BR and SBR decreased, and the spreads between synthetic rubbers and RU narrowed [33]. - The virtual - to - physical ratio of RU was at a relatively low level, and the settled funds were at a low level year - on - year. The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR decreased rapidly, and the settled funds also decreased rapidly [36]. 3.3 Fundamental Data Supply - In Thailand, the temperature and rainfall in the southern region increased significantly. In China, the rainfall in Hainan and Yunnan was at a high level compared with the same period in previous years [40][42]. - The prices of raw materials decreased. The prices of Thai cup rubber, glue, smoked sheets, and raw sheets decreased, while the raw materials in Yunnan were still relatively firm due to more rainfall [44][45]. - The spread between Thai glue and cup rubber widened, and the spread of Hainan glue between concentrated latex factories and whole - milk factories first rose and then fell [53]. - The overall processing profit decreased as the decline of raw materials was smaller than that of finished products [57]. - In June 2025, China's imports of natural rubber (including mixed and composite rubber) increased by 2.21% month - on - month and 33.95% year - on - year. The imports of Thai mixed rubber, Vietnamese mixed rubber, and Vietnamese standard rubber increased significantly month - on - month, while the imports of Thai standard rubber decreased significantly [61][62]. Demand - Some tire enterprises arranged maintenance at the end of the cycle, which dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate. The finished product inventory decreased as the overall shipment of enterprises was concentrated at the end of the month [65]. - In June 2025, the exports of all - steel and semi - steel tires decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The sales of passenger cars maintained high growth, and the sales of heavy - duty trucks improved significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year [69][70]. Inventory - This week, China's natural rubber inventory increased slightly, with a decrease in light - colored rubber and an increase in dark - colored rubber. There is a high possibility of inventory reduction in Qingdao next period, while there may still be a slight increase in inventory in Yunnan [72]. 3.4 This Week's View Summary - Supply: The supply from the main producing areas increased this week, and raw material prices continued to fall, weakening the bottom support of rubber prices [82]. - Demand: The capacity utilization rates of semi - steel and all - steel tire sample enterprises were 69.98% and 59.26% respectively, showing a weak demand [82]. - View: It is expected that the rubber price will continue its weak consolidation in the short - term due to the increasing supply, falling raw material prices, weak terminal demand, and the digestion and adjustment of macro - sentiment [82]. - Valuation: The basis between whole milk and RU main contract was stable, and the spread between mixed standard rubber and RU main contract narrowed [82]. - Strategy: Unilateral trading is expected to be range - bound and weak; the inter - period spread trading should shift from reverse arbitrage to positive arbitrage; for cross - variety trading, just observe for now [82].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of raw materials in the production areas is prone to rise and difficult to fall, with strong cost support. The downstream demand is average, and the acceptance of high prices is limited, resulting in light overall trading. The conflict between Thailand and Cambodia has a potential impact on the supply of natural rubber. Coupled with the continuous fermentation of anti - involution, the market sentiment was bullish last week. However, considering the impact of regulatory control measures on leading varieties and the overall market sentiment, it is expected that rubber may follow the overall market atmosphere and may have a narrow - range correction [76]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Industry News - In the first half of 2025, Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber increased by 13.2% year - on - year to 2.257 million tons, and exports to China increased by 35% to 1.423 million tons [5]. - In the first half of 2025, EU passenger car sales decreased by 1.9% to 5.58 million vehicles, with a 7.3% year - on - year decline in June to 1.01 million vehicles. The market share of pure electric vehicles rose to 15.6%, and hybrid electric vehicles accounted for 34.8%, while the total market share of gasoline and diesel vehicles dropped to 37.8% [6]. - Thailand and Cambodia had a border conflict on July 24, with both sides accusing the other of opening fire first [7]. - In June 2025, global light - vehicle sales increased by 2.1% year - on - year to 7.73 million vehicles. The annualized sales volume after seasonal adjustment rose to 93 million vehicles/year. Trade frictions affected major markets such as the US and Western Europe, while the Chinese market maintained strong sales [8]. Market Trends - This week, both domestic and foreign markets continued to rise. On July 25, 2025, the closing price of RU2509 was 15,585 yuan/ton, up 5.23% this week; the closing price of NR2509 was 13,320 yuan/ton, up 5.09%; the closing price of Singapore TSR20:2509 was 178.90 cents/kg, up 5.30%; and the closing price of Tokyo RSS3:2509 was 332.70 yen/kg, up 2.56% [10][11]. Basis and Monthly Spread - As of July 25, 2025, the basis of whole - milk rubber to RU was - 35 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 250.00% and a year - on - year increase of 88.33%. The 09 - 01 monthly spread was - 765 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 3.16% and a year - on - year increase of 35.17% [14]. Other Spreads - Cross - variety/cross - market spreads such as RU - NR, RU - BR, NR - SGX TSR20, and RU - JPX RSS3 increased. On July 25, 2025, the RU09 - NR09 spread was 2,265 yuan/ton, up 6.09% month - on - month and down 2.58% year - on - year [22][23]. - Non - standard basis spreads: The spreads of Thai mixed rubber to RU, Malaysian mixed rubber to RU, 3L rubber to RU, and African No. 10 rubber to RU changed. For example, the Thai mixed rubber to RU spread was - 485 yuan/ton on July 25, 2025, with a large month - on - month change [24][26]. - Light - dark color spreads: The spread between whole - milk rubber and Thai mixed rubber widened, while the spread between 3L rubber and Thai mixed rubber narrowed [31]. Substitute Prices - Due to policy factors and the border conflict, the price of synthetic rubber rose, but RU rose more, widening the spread between synthetic rubber and RU. On July 25, 2025, the price of China's mainstream butadiene rubber was 12,200 yuan/ton, and the price of styrene - butadiene rubber was 12,450 yuan/ton [34]. Capital Movements - The long - short position ratio of RU was relatively low, and the funds settled were neutral year - on - year. The long - short position ratio of NR rose rapidly, and the funds settled increased rapidly. On July 25, 2025, the long - short position ratio of RU was 6.98, and that of NR was 16.72 [36][37]. Supply - Weather in Thai production areas: The temperature in southern Thailand rose, and rainfall continued to ease. In domestic production areas, recent rainfall in Hainan and Yunnan was high year - on - year, and rainfall in Hainan increased significantly month - on - month [40][41]. - Raw material prices: The raw material procurement prices continued to rise, strengthening the upstream cost support. On July 25, 2025, the price of Thai cup rubber was 50 baht/kg, and the price of Thai glue was 55.3 baht/kg [44][45]. - Raw material spreads: The spread between Thai glue and cup rubber decreased, while the spread between Hainan glue for concentrated latex plants and that for whole - milk rubber plants increased [53][54]. - Upstream processing profits: This week, the rubber processing profits recovered. On July 25, 2025, the production profit of Thai standard rubber was 108 yuan/ton [56][57]. - Rubber imports: In June 2025, China's imports of natural rubber (including mixed and composite rubber) increased by 2.21% month - on - month and 33.95% year - on - year. The imports of Thai mixed rubber, Vietnamese mixed rubber, and Vietnamese standard rubber increased significantly month - on - month, while the imports of Thai standard rubber decreased significantly [60][61]. Demand - Tire capacity utilization and inventory: This week, the overall tire capacity utilization increased slightly. The inventory of some sample tire enterprises increased slightly. On July 25, 2025, the capacity utilization of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.06%, and that of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.23% [64]. - Tire exports and heavy - truck sales: In June 2025, the exports of full - steel and semi - steel tires decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. Passenger car sales maintained high growth, and heavy - truck sales improved significantly year - on - year and month - on - month [67][68]. Inventory - Spot inventory: As of July 18, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.2891 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.47%. The inventory of dark - colored rubber was 795,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23%, and the inventory of light - colored rubber was 493,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.85% [69]. - Futures inventory: On July 25, 2025, the futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 182,000 tons, and the futures - spot inventory was 210,800 tons [72].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of natural rubber raw materials in Thailand remained strong this week. The social inventory of natural rubber in China decreased, with both dark and light rubber inventories declining. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel and all - steel tire sample enterprises in China increased slightly. The downstream demand was average, and the overall transaction was light. Affected by the potential impact of the border conflict between Thailand and Cambodia on supply and the "anti - involution" policy, the market sentiment was bullish last week. However, considering the regulatory measures, rubber may follow the market and experience a narrow - range correction. [77] - The recommended investment strategies are: 1) Unilateral: oscillatory correction; 2) Inter - period: NR reverse spread; 3) Inter - variety: not provided. [77] 3. Summary According to the Directory Industry News - In the first half of 2025, Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber increased by 13.2% year - on - year, with exports to China increasing by 35%. Among them, the exports of mixed rubber increased significantly, while the exports of some types of natural rubber showed different trends. [5] - In the first half of 2025, EU passenger car sales decreased by 1.9% to 5.58 million vehicles. The market share of pure electric vehicles increased, while the market share of gasoline and diesel vehicles decreased. [6] - On July 24, 2025, there was a border conflict between Thailand and Cambodia. Both sides accused each other of opening fire first. [7] - In June 2025, global light - vehicle sales increased by 2.1% year - on - year to 7.73 million vehicles. The Chinese market performed strongly, while the US and Western European markets faced challenges. [8] Market Trends - This week, both domestic and foreign markets continued to rise. On July 25, 2025, the closing price of RU2509.SHF was 15,585 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 5.23%; the closing price of NR2509.SHF was 13,320 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 5.09%; the closing price of Singapore TSR20:2509 was 178.90 cents/kg, with a weekly increase of 5.30%; the closing price of Tokyo RSS3:2509 was 332.70 yen/kg, with a weekly increase of 2.56%. [11][12] Fundamental Data Supply - Weather: In the Thai southern region, the temperature rose and rainfall continued to ease. In Hainan and Yunnan of China, the recent rainfall was at a relatively high level compared to the same period, and the rainfall in Hainan increased significantly month - on - month. [40][41] - Raw material prices: The raw material procurement prices continued to rise, strengthening the upstream cost support. On July 25, 2025, the price of Thai cup rubber was 50.00 baht/kg, the price of Thai glue was 55.30 baht/kg, etc. [44][45] - Raw material price differences: The price difference between Thai glue and cup rubber decreased, while the price difference between Hainan glue entering the concentrated latex factory and the whole - milk factory increased. [53][54] - Upstream processing profits: This week, the rubber processing profits rebounded. On July 25, 2025, the production profit of Thai standard rubber was 108.00 yuan/ton, and the production profit of Thai smoked sheet was 1,891.00 yuan/ton. [57][58] - Rubber imports: In June 2025, China's imports of natural rubber (including mixed and composite rubber) increased by 2.21% month - on - month and 33.95% year - on - year. The imports of Thai mixed rubber, Vietnamese mixed rubber, and Vietnamese standard rubber increased significantly month - on - month, while the imports of Thai standard rubber decreased significantly month - on - month. [61][62] Demand - Tire capacity utilization and inventory: This week, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises increased slightly, and the inventory increased slightly. On July 25, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires was 62.23%, and the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tires was 70.06%. [65] - Tire exports and heavy - truck sales: In June 2025, the exports of all - steel and semi - steel tires decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The sales volume of passenger cars maintained high growth, and the sales volume of heavy - trucks improved significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year. [67][68] Inventory - Spot inventory: This week, the natural rubber inventory in China decreased, with both dark and light rubber inventories decreasing. As of July 18, 2025, the dark rubber inventory was 79.56 tons, and the light rubber inventory was 49.35 tons. [70][71] - Futures inventory: On July 25, 2025, the futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 18.20 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.48%. [73][74]