Core Viewpoint - The report suggests that the liquidity crisis is intensifying market volatility, which will accelerate the repricing of major asset classes. Global equities and commodities may still present performance opportunities, recommending an overweight in AH shares, US stocks, crude oil, and industrial commodities for February [1]. Group 1: Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA) and Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA) - The "all-weather" asset allocation framework consists of SAA, TAA, and adjustments based on significant events, providing a comprehensive guide for investment decisions. SAA diversifies macro risks and sets long-term allocation benchmarks for portfolio stability, while TAA identifies short-term risk-return characteristics to adjust portfolio weights for enhanced returns [1]. - The report emphasizes that the liquidity crisis will lead to accelerated repricing of major asset classes, with global equities and commodities likely to perform well despite unchanged fundamental pricing factors [1]. Group 2: Equity Allocation Recommendations - For February 2026, the recommended equity allocation weight is 47.50%, with overweight positions in A-shares (10.00%), Hong Kong stocks (10.00%), and US stocks (17.50%). European and Japanese stocks are set at standard weights of 5.00% each [2]. - Multiple factors support the performance of Chinese equities, suggesting an overweight in A/H shares due to an expected expansion of the fiscal deficit and more aggressive economic policies. The anticipated interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and the stable appreciation of the RMB provide favorable conditions for monetary easing in China [2]. - The report indicates that the "Goldilocks" scenario is emerging, which is beneficial for US stock performance, as the US economy shows resilience despite marginal cooling, with corporate earnings expectations likely to support upward movement in US stock indices [2]. Group 3: Bond Allocation Recommendations - The recommended bond allocation weight for February 2026 is 35.00%, with allocations to long-term (7.50%) and short-term (10.00%) government bonds, as well as long-term (7.50%) and short-term (10.00%) US Treasury bonds [3]. - Structural monetary policies are expected to strengthen the allocation towards government bonds, as the imbalance between financing demand and credit supply remains a reality. The trend of rising risk appetite may lead to a rebalancing of asset allocations by households and enterprises [3]. - The report notes that while the US economy is converging, it is not in a downturn, with a moderate cooling labor market and declining energy prices contributing to lower inflationary pressures. However, geopolitical tensions and the US government's actions may weaken the creditworthiness of US Treasuries [3]. Group 4: Commodity Allocation Recommendations - The recommended commodity allocation weight for February 2026 is 12.50%, with standard allocations to gold (5.00%) and overweight positions in crude oil (3.75%) and industrial commodities (3.75%) [4]. - The report suggests an overweight in crude oil due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which may provide temporary support for oil prices despite weak global demand [4]. - Industrial commodities are expected to benefit from revised demand forecasts and sustained trading momentum, with copper experiencing supply-demand imbalances driven by construction, electric grid modernization, and electric vehicle demand [4].

Group 1: China Equity Market - Multiple factors support the performance of Chinese equities, maintaining a tactical overweight view on A/H shares [1] - The release of micro trading risks due to significant asset volatility and panic selling has occurred, with expectations for new market forecasts as the economy's growth rate becomes important [1] - The regulatory authority shows strong determination and action plans to stabilize the capital market, with factors causing stock market valuation discounts having dissipated [1] Group 2: US Equity Market - Risk appetite has not yet stabilized, and the market may continue to speculate on AI industry trends, maintaining a tactical benchmark view on US stocks [2] - The US September employment report was mediocre, and Federal Reserve officials are cautious in their monetary policy guidance, leading to a downward adjustment in future rate cut probabilities [2] - Despite Nvidia's satisfactory earnings report, market risk appetite remains significantly down, indicating ongoing speculative behavior regarding AI [2] Group 3: US Treasury Market - The decline in endogenous inflationary stickiness broadens the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustment space, maintaining a tactical benchmark view on US Treasuries [3] - The US labor market is cooling, and lower energy prices along with slow wage growth contribute to the decrease in inflationary stickiness [3] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is expected to closely follow the US economic conditions, with a low probability of further tightening [3] Group 4: Gold Market - Global capital market volatility and trading fund dynamics may amplify gold price fluctuations, maintaining a tactical benchmark view on gold [4] - Previous uncertainties from Trump’s policies, worsening geopolitical situations, and ongoing central bank gold purchases have supported gold prices, attracting speculative trading funds [4] - Recent changes in Eastern European geopolitical conditions may lead to increased volatility in gold prices due to cross-asset fund flows [4] Group 5: Renminbi Exchange Rate - The resilience of the Chinese economy and the decrease in extreme geopolitical conflict risks support the stability of the Renminbi exchange rate, maintaining a tactical benchmark view on the Renminbi [5] - The Chinese economy is performing steadily, with stronger growth momentum compared to other major economies, which is expected to support the Renminbi's appreciation [5] - The overall trend for the Renminbi exchange rate is anticipated to show two-way fluctuations with a central tendency towards appreciation in a complex global macro environment [5]