另外，该行预期友邦保险(01299)多数关键指标在去年第四季将呈现持续改善的趋势，并维持对新业务 价值健康增长的预期。 智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利发布研报称，预期2026年将是内险股再次跑赢大市的一年，主要驱动因 素包括强劲的销售增长、更佳的业务质量以及有利的投资环境，预期监管政策、利率走势及市场投资情 绪将是追踪行业整体表现的主要催化剂，相信行业估值有上升空间。 另外，内险股将于下月发布业绩预告，3月底及4月底分别发布去年度及今年首季业绩，大摩认为均是追 踪该板块上行周期的重要催化剂，预测中国平安(02318) 今年首季新业务价值增长将非常强劲，去年全 年业绩则预计符合市场预期。大摩又相信，中国人寿(02628)将于本月底发布年度业绩预告，为市场带 来轻微的惊喜。 ...

内险股集体走高，截至发稿，新华保险（601336）(01336)涨4.45%，报58.7港元；中国太保（601601） (02601)涨3.04%，报37.3港元；中国平安（601318）(02318)涨2.17%，报68.25港元；中国人寿 （601628）(02628)涨1.8%，报29.36港元。 开源证券发布研报称，负债端看，受分红险转型、个险报行合一等多重因素影响，2025年个险渠道整体 承压，2026年开门红备战充分，个险渠道有望边际改善；在居民存款搬家的趋势下，银保渠道有望延续 较高增长，健康险有望在政策导向下迎来改善，看好险企2026年负债端增速。 资产端看，长端利率企稳、权益市场向好利于净资产和险企盈利表现，叠加负债成本边际改善，中长期 看险企利差有望逐步向好，带动估值回升，随着长端利率企稳回升，险企估值有望向1倍PEV靠拢，推 荐中国太保、中国平安和中国人寿H。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The insurance stocks continue to rise, with significant gains observed in major companies, indicating a positive market sentiment and potential for growth in the sector [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Xinhua Insurance (01336) increased by 4.65%, reaching HKD 51.05 - China Pacific Insurance (601601) (02601) rose by 4.34%, reaching HKD 36.1 - Ping An Insurance (601318) (02318) saw a 3.37% increase, reaching HKD 65.9 - China Life Insurance (601628) (02628) grew by 2.4%, reaching HKD 28.98 [1] Group 2: Research Insights - Guojin Securities released a report indicating an upward trend in the "opening red" season, maintaining a positive recommendation for the sector - The report anticipates a significant number of fixed deposits maturing next year, making dividend insurance attractive for low-risk investors seeking long-term wealth preservation and growth - It is expected that the new single premium and NBV for the "opening red" will achieve double-digit growth, with large companies increasing their market share [1][1] Group 3: Regulatory Changes - Shenwan Hongyuan Securities published a report noting that regulatory authorities have recently lowered the risk factors for insurance companies holding long-term equity assets - This change is expected to release a substantial amount of incremental capital, estimated in the hundreds of billions, in the short term - The report highlights that with the replenishment of insurance capital and increased willingness to allocate, high-dividend stocks with stable returns and defensive attributes will become a key focus for investment [1][1]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced fluctuations, with the Hang Seng Index closing up 0.65% at 26,027.55 points and a total turnover of HKD 2,646.57 million [1] - Short-term volatility is expected, but long-term growth is anticipated due to developments in the AI industry, improved US-China relations, and policy implementations [1] Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - China Life (02628) led blue-chip stocks, rising 6.04% to HKD 24.94, contributing 16.55 points to the Hang Seng Index [2] - The company projected a net profit of RMB 156.79 billion to RMB 177.69 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 50% to 70% [2] - Other notable blue-chip performances included BYD Electronics (00285) up 3.77%, Techtronic Industries (00669) up 3.7%, while China Telecom (00728) and China Resources Mixc Lifestyle (01209) saw declines [2] Sector Highlights - Major technology stocks saw gains, with Alibaba and Kuaishou both rising nearly 2%, and Tencent up 0.48% [3] - The Apple concept stocks performed well, driven by strong demand for the iPhone 17 series, with several companies in the supply chain seeing significant increases in stock prices [4] - Insurance stocks generally rose, with China Life and New China Life both reporting substantial profit increases for the first three quarters of 2025 [5] Automotive Sector - The automotive sector continued its upward trend, with Xpeng Motors (09868) up 3.75% and Geely Automobile (00175) up 3.23% [5] - The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers reported record production and sales for new energy vehicles in September, with year-on-year growth of 23.7% and 24.6% respectively [6] Oil and Gas Sector - Some oil and gas stocks strengthened, notably Sinopec Oilfield Service (01033) which surged 12% [7] - The "Deep Earth Economy" is gaining attention as a strategic emerging industry, focusing on resource exploration and underground space utilization [7] Notable Stock Movements - Jushuitan (06687) debuted with a 23.86% increase, closing at HKD 37.9, focusing on e-commerce SaaS solutions [8] - Tsugami Machine Tool (01651) reached a new high with a 9.63% rise, forecasting a 48% increase in net profit for the first half of the 2026 fiscal year [9] - Bosideng (03998) rose 9.11% as colder weather is expected to boost winter clothing sales [10] - Bilibili-W (09626) gained 8.88% following successful game releases [11] - Aux Electric (02580) increased by 7.59% after announcing a dividend payout plan [12]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that domestic insurance stocks have underperformed since the end of July, with average declines of 2% in H-shares and 6% in A-shares, while the Hang Seng Index and CSI 300 Index rose by 8% and 14% respectively. This is attributed to high valuation levels following a rebound in early April and a weak profit growth outlook due to high base effects in the second half of 2024 [1] Group 1 - Goldman Sachs believes that the risk-reward profile for domestic insurance stocks is improving ahead of the upcoming third-quarter earnings, with expectations that stock investment returns may lead to better-than-expected profits for the third quarter [1] - The new business value for next year is anticipated to achieve double-digit growth, and the profit margin for contract services is expected to reach a growth inflection point [1] Group 2 - Among domestic insurance stocks, China Life is expected to benefit the most from market and yield changes in the third quarter, followed by China Pacific Insurance. New China Life is projected to show the strongest profit growth, although its book value and solvency ratio may lag behind peers [1] - Goldman Sachs has raised its 2025 profit forecast for domestic insurance stocks by 2% to 20%, with the largest upward adjustments for China Life and New China Life at 20% and 19% respectively [1] - The rating for China Pacific Insurance has been upgraded from "Neutral" to "Buy," while the rating for China Taiping has been upgraded from "Sell" to "Neutral" [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that domestic insurance stocks have underperformed since the end of July, with average declines of 2% in H-shares and 6% in A-shares, while the Hang Seng Index and CSI 300 Index rose by 8% and 14% respectively. This underperformance is attributed to high valuation levels following a rebound in early April and a weak profit growth outlook due to high base effects in the second half of 2024 [1] Group 1: Performance Analysis - Domestic insurance stocks have seen a decline in stock prices, with H-shares down 2% and A-shares down 6% since late July [1] - The Hang Seng Index and CSI 300 Index have increased by 8% and 14% respectively during the same period [1] - The decline in domestic insurance stocks is linked to high valuation levels and a weak profit growth outlook due to high base effects expected in 2024 [1] Group 2: Earnings Outlook - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the risk-reward profile for domestic insurance stocks is improving, with expectations that third-quarter earnings may exceed forecasts due to stock investment returns [1] - The new business value for next year is expected to achieve double-digit growth, and the profit margin for contract services is projected to reach a growth inflection point [1] Group 3: Company-Specific Projections - Among domestic insurance stocks, China Life is expected to benefit the most from market and yield changes in the third quarter, followed by China Pacific Insurance [1] - New China Life is projected to show the strongest earnings growth, although its book value and solvency ratio may lag behind peers [1] - Goldman Sachs has raised its 2025 earnings forecast for domestic insurance stocks by 2% to 20%, with China Life and New China Life seeing the largest increases of 20% and 19% respectively [1] Group 4: Rating Changes - The rating for China Pacific Insurance has been upgraded from "Neutral" to "Buy" [1] - The rating for China Taiping has been upgraded from "Sell" to "Neutral" [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's research report indicates that the recent performance of domestic insurance stocks reflects positive signals such as a shift in reserve liabilities, improved asset-liability management, increased mid-term dividends, enhanced capital repayment, and strong operational conditions in both life and non-life insurance sectors [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Domestic insurance stocks have shown a rebound this year, with current price levels corresponding to a projected price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 7 times for 2026 [1] - The expected dividend yield for these stocks is around 4%, indicating an improved risk-return profile [1] Group 2: Company Outlook - Morgan Stanley is optimistic about China Life and Ping An, anticipating continued strong performance in the third quarter [1] - The firm maintains an "overweight" rating for both companies, with target prices set at HKD 31 for China Life and HKD 80 for Ping An [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant rally in Hong Kong's insurance stocks, with China People's Insurance Group and China Pacific Insurance reaching historical highs [1] - China People's Insurance Group reported a mid-year revenue of 324.12 billion yuan, up from 292.34 billion yuan in the same period last year, and a net profit of 26.7 billion yuan, compared to 23.4 billion yuan previously [1] - China Pacific Insurance's net profit for the first half of the year was 24.455 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 32.3% [1] Group 2 - Prudential reported a shareholder profit of 1.284 billion USD for the mid-year period, marking a year-on-year increase of 9.7 times [1] - China Ping An's operating profit attributable to shareholders grew by 3.7% in the first half of the year, with a strong increase of 39.8% in new business value for life insurance [1] - Analysts suggest that the Chinese insurance industry is emerging from a low point, driven by multiple favorable factors, indicating a shift towards a higher quality and more sustainable development phase [1]