二 〇 二 六 年 度 2026 年 2 月 3 日 困境与破局：透视宏观纹理，重塑商品 Beta 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 shaowanyi@gtht.com 李翔云（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03149627 lixiangyun@gtht.com 报告导读： 本文旨在解决商品投资领域"资金配置意愿强"与"工具端区分度弱"的矛盾。面对现有指数高度共 性化的特征，我们将视角转向商品期货未被充分挖掘的宏观风格 Beta，试图为市场提供超越传统贝塔的 差异化配置路径。 我们成功开发了两条风格鲜明的商品期货多头被动指数： 商品宏观·锐意进取指数：基于有色、黑色及贵金属板块构建，具备周期进攻属性； 商品宏观·稳健韧性指数：基于能化、农产品及贵金属板块构建，具备周期防守属性。 ——大类资产配置系列（一） 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 ⚫ 困境：大类资产配置中的"工具断层"。当前国内商品基金市场呈现总量微薄、品种集中的特 征，与海外成熟市场全谱系、功能化的工具体系形成鲜明反差。我们认为正是战略资产配置层面 商品配置工具的结构性失衡，使得战术资产配置层面投资组合优化的潜力尚未得到充分释放。 ...

Group 1 - The conference on November 28, 2025, gathered experts and analysts to explore investment strategies through economic cycles [1] - Morgan Stanley's Chief Economist for China, Xing Ziqiang, highlighted China's significant achievements in technological innovation and its critical role in the new technological revolution [3] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims for high-quality and sustainable growth driven by technological innovation and domestic demand [3] Group 2 - Xing emphasized that technological innovation is the core engine of economic development, showcasing China's breakthroughs in sectors like semiconductors, green energy, artificial intelligence, and 6G during the "13th" and "14th Five-Year Plans" [3] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" also focuses on improving people's livelihoods and boosting consumption, with a target to increase the share of household consumption in GDP [4] - The plan includes a proposal to provide monthly subsidies of approximately 1,000 RMB to farmers and migrant workers, aiming to enhance consumption confidence and push household consumption beyond 10 trillion USD by 2030 [4] Group 3 - Xing proposed a "source and save" approach for fiscal sustainability, suggesting the activation of state-owned assets and optimizing fiscal expenditure to better allocate resources towards social welfare [4] - The long-term positive fundamentals of the Chinese economy remain unchanged, with technological self-reliance and domestic demand expansion expected to create new growth momentum [4] - Continuous policy consensus and deepening reforms will provide significant opportunities for global investors in the Chinese financial market [4]