Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Option: Sell wide straddle [3] Core View - The processing fee at the mine end remains stable. The operating rates of primary lead and recycled lead first decline and then rise but the resumption is slow, and the recycled lead remains deeply in a loss pattern. The terminal consumption gradually recovers after a seasonal decline, but the willingness to replenish inventory is weak. Both domestic and foreign inventories have reached new highs, suppressing the upward space of lead prices [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Spot - On March 4, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$49.27/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price changed by -50 yuan/ton to 16,575 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 0 yuan/ton to -15 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot changed by -50 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot changed by -50 yuan/ton to 16,575 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by -50 yuan/ton to 16,650 yuan/ton. The lead refined-scrap price difference changed by 0 yuan/ton to -50 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries changed by 0 yuan/ton to 9,925 yuan/ton. The price of waste white shells changed by 0 yuan/ton to 10,075 yuan/ton. The price of waste black shells changed by 0 yuan/ton to 10,275 yuan/ton [1] Market News and Important Data - Futures - On March 4, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,780 yuan/ton and closed at 16,840 yuan/ton, with no change compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume throughout the trading day was 46,772 lots, a change of -6,889 lots compared with the previous trading day. The position throughout the trading day was 59,776 lots, a change of -439 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, reaching a maximum of 16,860 yuan/ton and a minimum of 16,740 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,775 yuan/ton and closed at 16,860 yuan/ton, a 0.45% increase compared with the afternoon close of the previous day [2] Market News and Important Data - Inventory - On March 4, 2026, the total inventory of SMM lead ingots was 67,000 tons, a change of -20 tons compared with the same period last week. As of March 4, the LME lead inventory was 286,100 tons, with no change compared with the previous trading day [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Be neutral. Pay attention to the inventory inflection point in mid-to-late March and the resumption progress of recycled lead production. It is recommended that smelting enterprises hedge at high prices to lock in profits, downstream enterprises replenish inventory on demand at low prices, and investors be cautiously bullish. Pay attention to the breakthrough of the 16,300 - 17,200 yuan/ton range. Enterprises with different needs for buying or selling hedges can conduct buying or selling hedge operations at the upper and lower limits of the range [3] - Option: Sell wide straddle [3]

Group 1 - As of August 1, 2025, the main contract for Shanghai lead futures closed at 16,735 CNY/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.03% [1] - The opening price for the week was 16,960 CNY/ton, reaching a high of 17,085 CNY/ton and a low of 16,615 CNY/ton, with an increase in open interest by 3,011 contracts compared to the previous week [1] - The London Metal Exchange reported lead registered warrants at 204,150 tons and canceled warrants at 72,350 tons, with total lead inventory increasing by 125 tons to 276,500 tons [2] Group 2 - A lead recycling plant in Northwest China plans to suspend production due to water resource scarcity, market downturn, and raw material shortages, which is expected to reduce national lead output by 5,000 to 10,000 tons in August [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported lead warehouse receipts at 62,360 tons, an increase of 426 tons from the previous trading day [3] - Jinrui Futures noted that domestic lead prices are following a general decline in non-ferrous metals, with limited recovery in recycled lead production and an expectation of increased consumption as the seasonal peak approaches [4] - Ruida Futures observed that despite price increases, downstream demand remains cautious, with slow inventory depletion in the lead-acid battery sector, indicating a potential for short-term price fluctuations [4]