Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The report discusses the deep impact of stablecoins on the financial system, including effects on the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, commercial banks, and financial infrastructure [4][6] - It highlights the potential for stablecoins to disrupt traditional banking and payment systems while also presenting new opportunities for financial IT service providers and blockchain companies [6] Summary by Sections 1. Impact of Stablecoins on the Financial System - Stablecoins act as a stable digital representation of value, potentially influencing monetary control systems without directly affecting them [13] - The Federal Reserve may face indirect impacts on its balance sheet due to changes in demand for government bonds and bank deposits caused by stablecoin transactions [14] - Stablecoins can challenge existing monetary policy tools by increasing liquidity fluctuations and affecting short-term interest rates [22][23] 2. Comparison of Stablecoin Development in China and the U.S. - The report contrasts the motivations behind stablecoin development in the U.S. and China, emphasizing the need for regulatory frameworks to adapt to the evolving landscape [10] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that while stablecoin trading is illegal in mainland China, there are growth opportunities for financial IT service providers and payment solution companies [6] - It recommends focusing on banks and investment banks that are exploring virtual asset trading and innovative business models [6] 4. Effects on Commercial Banks - Stablecoins may lead to a disintermediation effect, impacting the balance sheets of commercial banks by shifting deposits to custodial accounts [36] - The report notes that banks may need to adjust their liquidity and interest rate risk management strategies in response to the rise of stablecoins [40] 5. Impact on Financial Infrastructure - Stablecoins can enhance payment efficiency by enabling real-time transactions and reducing costs, particularly in cross-border payments [42] - The competition from stablecoins may drive traditional payment systems to adopt distributed ledger technology to improve their services [42]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the U.S. stock market, trade policies, and the development of stablecoins in the context of the U.S. economy and financial system [1][3][13]. Core Points and Arguments 1. **U.S. Stock Market Performance**: The U.S. stock market continues to reach new highs, with the Nasdaq index rising due to Nvidia's influence, and the S&P 500 index surpassing 6,300 points, reflecting optimistic expectations for economic recovery [1][3]. 2. **Tariff Concerns**: There are indications that the Trump administration may escalate tariffs affecting various sectors, including copper, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals, with potential impacts on Canada, Mexico, the EU, Japan, and South Korea [1][4]. 3. **Tariff Revenue**: In June, U.S. tariff revenue reached $26.6 billion, the highest in decades, suggesting that the tariff policy significantly contributes to fiscal revenue, which may encourage further tariff implementations [1][6]. 4. **Corporate Preparedness**: U.S. companies have stockpiled inventory in anticipation of potential tariff increases, which may mitigate the direct economic impact of new tariffs [1][7]. 5. **Federal Reserve Leadership**: The likelihood of Trump successfully firing Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is low, and even if a new chairman is appointed, it would not singularly alter monetary policy, which is primarily determined by the FOMC [1][10][11]. 6. **Stablecoin Development**: The U.S. is actively promoting the development of stablecoins to maintain its technological and financial innovation edge, increase demand for U.S. Treasury bonds, and re-establish the dollar's dominance in the global financial system [1][13]. 7. **Impact of Tariffs on Inflation**: The economic impact of tariffs appears moderate, with inflation data consistently below expectations, which may encourage the continuation of tariff policies [1][6]. 8. **Market Stability**: The overall market is stabilizing, with both stock and bond volatility indices (VIX and MOVE) declining to their lowest levels since 2025, indicating recovery from previous tariff shocks [3]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Legal Framework for Stablecoins**: The U.S. relies on several acts, such as the Clarity Act and Genius Act, to regulate stablecoins, which face challenges like cross-jurisdictional issues and financial stability concerns [18]. 2. **Global Debt Holdings**: Tether and Circle, two major stablecoin issuers, hold approximately $120 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds, making them the 18th largest holders globally, with potential to become major players in the future [2][16]. 3. **Public Sentiment on Dollar Assets**: Many residents in various countries prefer holding dollar assets due to their stability, and stablecoins provide a convenient means for these individuals to access dollar-denominated assets without traditional banking barriers [14]. 4. **Trump's Relationship with the Fed**: Trump's ongoing criticism of Powell and the Fed is driven by personal interests in lower interest rates to alleviate government debt pressures, despite market skepticism regarding the effectiveness of such measures [12][15].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the U.S. government's push for stablecoins as a strategic move to enhance innovation in digital finance, increase demand for U.S. Treasury bonds, and maintain the dollar's dominance in the global economy, particularly in the context of rising geopolitical risks and competition from other countries' digital currencies [1][6][12]. Group 1: Encouraging Innovation - The U.S. aims to solidify its leadership in technology and finance by establishing regulatory frameworks for stablecoins, which are seen as essential for the development of a new financial ecosystem [4][5]. - The introduction of stablecoin legislation is intended to foster innovation while protecting consumers and ensuring the U.S. remains competitive in the Web3 space [4][5]. Group 2: Increasing Demand for U.S. Treasury Bonds - There has been a significant decline in foreign ownership of U.S. Treasury bonds, dropping from 14.6% in 2011 to 4.9% by the end of 2024, raising concerns about "de-dollarization" [8][9]. - The U.S. government plans to link stablecoins with Treasury bonds to boost demand, with stablecoin issuers like Tether and Circle already holding substantial amounts of U.S. debt [10][11]. Group 3: Rebuilding Dollar Dominance - Emerging economies are seeking alternatives to the dollar, prompting U.S. officials to advocate for stablecoins as a means to counteract "de-dollarization" and promote "re-dollarization" [12][13]. - Stablecoins are viewed as a way to maintain the dollar's status as the global reserve currency, especially in high-inflation countries where residents are increasingly turning to dollar-pegged stablecoins for savings [13][14]. Group 4: Trump Family Interests and the Crypto Industry - The Trump family has significant financial ties to the crypto industry, with investments leading to substantial wealth increases, which influences the push for favorable policies towards stablecoins [15][16]. Group 5: Legislative Pathways - The U.S. Congress is advancing several key pieces of legislation aimed at establishing a regulatory framework for stablecoins, including the GENIUS Act, CLARITY Act, and Anti-CBDC Monitoring Act [18][20][21]. - These laws are designed to create a transparent and compliant environment for stablecoin issuance, ensuring that they are fully backed by high-quality liquid assets [19][22]. Group 6: Challenges and Global Implications - The article highlights the potential for stablecoins to become a "new offshore dollar," but also notes the risks associated with their cross-border use and the regulatory challenges posed by different jurisdictions [26][30]. - Concerns are raised about the financial vulnerabilities of stablecoins, particularly in the context of their connections to traditional banking systems and the potential for systemic risks during market downturns [31][32].