Core Insights - The domestic grain market showed a downward trend this week, with early indica rice futures remaining stable at 2500.00 yuan/ton as of the report time [1] Market Information - According to foreign media forecasts, U.S. corn export net sales for the 2025/26 marketing year are expected to be between 1.1 million to 2.1 million tons by the week ending October 23, 2025 [1] - The Mexican Agriculture Minister reported that corn prices in Mexico are declining due to oversupply, impacting local farmers [1] - Rabobank predicts that Brazil's corn export volume for the 2025/26 season will be approximately 37 million tons, a decrease of 5% year-on-year [1] - Data indicates that the total corn processing volume nationwide for the week of October 23-29, 2025, was 597,300 tons, an increase of 23,300 tons from the previous week [1]

Group 1: Market Trends - The market is experiencing a surge in sales of traditional items like zongzi and related products as the Dragon Boat Festival approaches, with significant increases in the availability and sales of ingredients such as bamboo leaves and glutinous rice [1] - The sales volume of bamboo leaves has doubled compared to previous periods, with strong demand noted from regions like Hubei, Hunan, Jiangsu, and Anhui [1] - The average daily sales of glutinous rice have increased from approximately 8-9 tons to nearly 20 tons in the lead-up to the festival [1] Group 2: Pricing and Supply - On May 25, the vegetable supply at the market was 20,000 tons, with an average price of 2.5 yuan per kilogram, indicating stable pricing overall [2] - The market saw an increase in the supply of pork, with 1,800 pigs listed on May 26 at an average price of 17.5 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a well-supplied market [2] - The current supply of live pigs is sufficient, and slaughterhouses are prepared to maintain market supply, leading to minor fluctuations in pork prices [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is "cautiously bearish" [3][5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soybean meal, the supply of Brazilian new - season soybeans is increasing, and the domestic soybean supply is expected to be sufficient in the future. With the recovery of oil mill operations, the soybean meal inventory will gradually rise. The supply pressure is emerging, and the support from import costs will weaken, so the soybean meal price will face significant pressure. Also, the positive outcome of the China - US talks may reduce the impact of the trade war on US soybeans and domestic soybean meal [2] - For corn, the supply of domestic corn is abundant as the remaining grain at the grassroots level is almost exhausted, but the port inventory is still high. The demand side is weak as deep - processing enterprises are facing losses, and feed enterprises are increasing the proportion of wheat substitution [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 2923 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton (+0.31%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2537 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton (+1.12%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 2980 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2960 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 3000 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was 2500 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton [1] - Brazilian soybean exports: In May 2025, Brazil's soybean exports are expected to reach 14.268 million tons, 13% higher than last week's forecast. From January to April, Brazil exported 40.42 million tons of soybeans, accounting for 41.5% of last year's total exports [1] Market Analysis - Supply: Brazilian new - season soybeans are arriving at Chinese ports, and the arrival volume will exceed 10 million tons from April to July. The supply pressure is emerging, and the import cost support will weaken [2] - Demand: Not specifically mentioned, but the overall supply - side situation indicates potential downward pressure on prices [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] 3.2 Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2507 contract was 2342 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton (-0.59%); the corn starch 2507 contract was 2689 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (-0.48%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2750 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - French corn: In the 2024/25 season, France's corn production is expected to be 13.973 million tons, 15.9% higher than the previous season. Exports are expected to be 4.702 million tons, up 11.5%, and the ending inventory is estimated to be 3.472 million tons, 2.5% higher than last month's forecast [3] Market Analysis - Supply: The remaining grain at the grassroots level is almost exhausted, but the port inventory is still high [4] - Demand: Deep - processing enterprises are facing losses, and feed enterprises are increasing the proportion of wheat substitution. The downstream提货 speed is slow [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [5]