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【农林牧渔】收储提振情绪,猪价跌势趋缓——光大证券农林牧渔行业周报(20250609-20250615)(李晓渊)
光大证券研究· 2025-06-16 13:39
Group 1: Pig Prices - The average price of external three yuan pigs in China decreased to 14.02 yuan/kg, a week-on-week decline of 0.21% [3] - The average price of 15 kg piglets fell to 32.89 yuan/kg, down 4.69% week-on-week [3] - The average weight of market pigs at slaughter was 128.82 kg, a decrease of 0.35 kg week-on-week, while the national frozen meat storage rate increased to 13.89%, up 0.09 percentage points [3] Group 2: Chicken Prices - The price of white feather broiler chickens was 7.27 yuan/kg, down 0.68% week-on-week, and the price of chicks was 2.74 yuan/chick, down 3.52% week-on-week [4] - Slaughter enterprises are experiencing slow sales of frozen chicken products, leading to increased inventory and reduced slaughter rates [4] - The current season is characterized by low profits for farmers, which is suppressing chick prices [4] Group 3: Grain Prices - The average spot price of corn was 2405.69 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.75% week-on-week, while soybean meal averaged 2968 yuan/ton, up 0.94% week-on-week [5] - The average price of wheat decreased to 2430.39 yuan/ton, down 0.13% week-on-week [5] - The increase in corn prices is attributed to reduced circulation due to wheat harvesting and traders holding onto their stocks [5] Group 4: Natural Rubber Prices - The domestic natural rubber futures price rose to 13815 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.88% [6] - Supply is tightening due to seasonal harvesting and adverse weather conditions affecting production [6] - Demand from tire manufacturers is recovering, leading to an increase in production capacity utilization [6]
生猪日内观点:稳中偏弱-20250429
Guang Jin Qi Huo· 2025-04-29 04:07
Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The current supply - demand situation of the main varieties in the market shows different characteristics. For the livestock and soft commodities sectors, the supply of pigs is strong and demand is weak in the short - term, while the sugar market is in a state of weak oscillation. In the energy - chemical sector, the oil price has a complex supply - demand relationship and is expected to be under pressure in the medium - term, and the PVC market has marginal improvement in fundamentals but lacks a strong upward drive [1][2][4][5]. 3. Summary by Variety Livestock and Soft Commodities Sector - **Pig**: The short - term supply pressure is large, and the demand is not significantly boosted. The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged. The pig price center is moving down, and the 07 and 09 contracts on the futures market are still bearish. It presents a volatile pattern with limited upside and a bottom for downside. It is recommended that the breeding side sell out - of - the - money put options or participate in the cumulative sales option products [1][2]. - **Sugar**: Both the short - term and medium - term trends are weakly oscillating. International factors such as Brazil's new - season sugar supply increase and India's production reduction co - exist. Domestically, the production increase expectation has been fulfilled, and there may be additional imports. It is recommended to wait and see [3][4]. Energy - Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: In the short - term, pay attention to the phased rebound, and in the medium - term, it will run under pressure. The supply side has certain supporting factors, and the demand side has some positive signals, but the inventory situation is complex. It is recommended to buy futures contracts and buy put options for protection [4][5]. - **PVC**: It shows a range - bound oscillation in the short - term, and lacks an upward drive in the medium - term. The cost has rebounded, supply has increased slightly, demand has some speculative factors, and inventory has decreased. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options on PVC at an appropriate time [6][7].