Core Viewpoint - The recent slight rebound in zinc prices is attributed to the interplay between U.S. inflation data and market sentiment, while poor domestic physical trading further constrains the market, indicating that short-term zinc prices will primarily experience high-level fluctuations and adjustments [3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai zinc futures market showed volatility today, with the main contract (2602) opening at 22,985 CNY/ton, reaching a high of 23,090 CNY/ton, and closing at 23,075 CNY/ton, up 40 CNY, or 0.17% [1]. - The trading volume for the Shanghai zinc 2602 contract was 88,361 lots, an increase of 2,041 lots, while the open interest rose by 2,640 lots to 86,365 [1]. - The latest price for London zinc was reported at 3,072.5 USD, an increase of 14.5 USD [1]. Group 2: Price Statistics - The ccmn comprehensive zinc price for 0 zinc was reported between 23,110-23,210 CNY/ton, with an average of 23,160 CNY, up 40 CNY; 1 zinc was between 23,030-23,130 CNY/ton, averaging 23,080 CNY, up 50 CNY [1]. - In Guangdong, the 0 zinc price ranged from 22,770-23,070 CNY/ton, averaging 22,920 CNY, also up 50 CNY, while 1 zinc was between 22,700-23,070 CNY/ton, averaging 22,850 CNY, up 50 CNY [1]. - The current spot zinc market quotes 0 zinc between 23,100-23,210 CNY/ton and 1 zinc between 23,030-23,130 CNY/ton [1]. Group 3: Macro and Fundamental Analysis - The U.S. Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November increased by 2.7% year-on-year, lower than market expectations and down from 3.0% in September, indicating a potential underestimation of actual inflation levels [2]. - Domestic smelters are experiencing increased maintenance, while downstream consumption shows resilience, leading to a continuous decline in social inventory [2]. - The import volume of zinc ore has decreased due to unfavorable price differentials, resulting in expanded losses for Chinese imports of zinc concentrate [2]. - Domestic smelters are beginning winter raw material reserves, favoring domestic zinc concentrate procurement, but competition among smelters is intensifying, leading to a significant drop in processing fees and reduced profits [2]. - The demand side is weakening, particularly in the real estate sector, with only the automotive sector showing some support due to policy backing [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the production cycle and future supply potential of Moutai liquor, emphasizing the unique production process and the expected market release of capacity over the next five years [2][6][17]. Production Process and Capacity - Moutai liquor is produced using a complex process involving specific ingredients and a lengthy production cycle, which includes a minimum of five years before the product can be sold [3][5]. - The design capacity reported in annual reports reflects the base liquor capacity that will only be marketable five years later, with the 2024 design capacity reported at 44,595 tons and actual capacity at 56,271.99 tons [6][9]. Capacity Conversion and Sales - The conversion coefficient for Moutai's production capacity typically ranges from 1.2x to 1.3x, influenced by annual climatic conditions [7][11]. - Actual sales figures reported in annual reports accurately reflect the sales for that year, but the production output does not directly correlate with the base liquor output from five years prior due to blending ratios and losses [8][10]. Future Sales Projections - Based on historical conversion coefficients and production data, Moutai's sales are projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 6.12%, reaching an estimated 64,613 tons by 2030 [15][17]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" for Moutai includes significant capacity expansion, with expectations for new production facilities to contribute to output starting in 2025 [12][14]. Social Inventory Analysis - Moutai's social inventory is complex and consists of both channel inventory and social inventory, with the latter further divided into speculative and collectible stocks [19][20]. - It is estimated that 30-40% of Moutai's annual sales flow into social inventory, amounting to approximately 90,000 to 95,000 tons, with a wealth retention value of around 400 billion yuan [21].

铝价重心持续走高，下游接货谨慎 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价21730元/吨，较上一交易日变化280元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-50元/吨， 较上一交易日变化-10元/吨；中原A00铝价21600元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-20元/吨至-180元/吨； 佛山A00铝价录21640元/吨，较上一交易日变化280元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-10元/吨至-135元/ 吨。 铝期货方面：2025-12-01日沪铝主力合约开于21615元/吨，收于21865元/吨，较上一交易日变化355元/吨，最 高价达21915元/吨，最低价达到21575元/吨。全天交易日成交255931手，全天交易日持仓265623手。 库存方面，截止2025-12-01，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存59.6万吨，较上一期变化0.0万吨，仓单库存66833 吨，较上一交易日变化-102吨，LME铝库存537900吨，较上一交易日变化-1150吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-12-01SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2835元/吨，山东价格录得2770元/吨，河南价格录得 2860元/吨，广西价格录得2885元/吨，贵 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral strategy is cautiously bullish, and the arbitrage strategy is inter - period positive spread [5] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The domestic spot premium has been rising, mainly due to a decrease in supply. The overseas premium has remained high, and the export window has been open. The TC prices at home and abroad have declined, causing smelting costs to face losses. Social inventory has been decreasing while supply pressure has not significantly eased. The fundamentals have turned from bearish to bullish, and zinc is currently undervalued. Despite fluctuations in the expectation of a US interest rate cut in December, the outlook for future consumption is optimistic [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Data - The LME zinc spot premium is $120.77 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,400 yuan per ton with a premium of 55 yuan per ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,340 yuan per ton with a discount of 20 yuan per ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,340 yuan per ton with a discount of 5 yuan per ton [1] Futures Data - On November 26, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,340 yuan per ton, closed at 22,355 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 96,212 lots, and the open interest was 100,730 lots. The highest price was 22,425 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 22,280 yuan per ton [2] Inventory Data - As of November 26, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 151,000 tons, a decrease of 1,700 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 49,925 tons, an increase of 1,925 tons from the previous trading day [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Inter - period positive spread [6] 2. Report's Core View - The domestic spot premium is showing a stable and improving trend, with the spread between different months narrowing, while the overseas premium remains high for a long time, and the export window remains open. The TC at home and abroad continues to decline, and the smelting comprehensive cost begins to face losses. The social inventory center continues to decline. The fundamental data has turned from bearish to bullish, and the current zinc valuation is low. Although there are fluctuations in the expectation of a US interest rate cut in December, the future consumption is optimistic, and the expectation of an interest rate cut remains unchanged, with re - inflation not yet reflected [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is $140.20 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,400 yuan per ton, with a change of 20 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is 40 yuan per ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,350 yuan per ton, with a change of 30 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is - 20 yuan per ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,350 yuan per ton, with a change of 10 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is - 10 yuan per ton [2] - **Futures**: On November 25, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,335 yuan per ton, closed at 22,360 yuan per ton, with a change of 10 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 84,904 lots, and the position was 99,591 lots. The highest intraday price reached 22,420 yuan per ton, and the lowest reached 22,275 yuan per ton [3] - **Inventory**: As of November 25, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 151,000 tons, with a change of - 17,000 tons from the previous period. As of November 25, 2025, the LME zinc inventory was 48,000 tons, with a change of 575 tons from the previous trading day [4]

社会库存持续震荡 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价21570元/吨，较上一交易日变化20元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-10元/吨， 较上一交易日变化10元/吨；中原A00铝价21480元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化20元/吨至-100元/吨；佛 山A00铝价录21450元/吨，较上一交易日变化30元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化20元/吨至-125元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-11-20日沪铝主力合约开于21620元/吨，收于21530元/吨，较上一交易日变化-10元/吨，最 高价达21640元/吨，最低价达到21515元/吨。全天交易日成交169843手，全天交易日持仓338582手。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-21 库存方面，截止2025-11-20，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存62.1万吨，较上一期变化-2.5万吨，仓单库存69408 吨，较上一交易日变化-76吨，LME铝库存544075吨，较上一交易日变化-2000吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-11-20SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2840元/吨，山东价格录得2770元/吨，河南价格录得 2860元/吨，广西价格录得291 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, Qilu Petrochemical's 360,000 - ton unit restarted, while LG Chemical's 400,000 - ton and Henan Lianchuang's 400,000 - ton units were under maintenance, leading to a decline in PVC capacity utilization rate. The start - up rate of pipes increased slightly, while that of profiles continued to decline, and the downstream start - up rate of PVC decreased slightly. Social inventory decreased slightly, but the inventory pressure remained high. The prices of raw materials such as calcium carbide, ethane, and vinyl chloride dropped, driving down the costs of calcium carbide and ethylene processes. Due to the weak spot price of PVC, the losses of both processes deepened. This week, LG Chemical's 400,000 - ton unit will restart, and the impact of previously restarted units will expand, so the PVC capacity utilization rate is expected to increase. In winter, it is the off - season for chlor - alkali plant maintenance, and PVC generally maintains a high - start state. As the temperature drops, the terminal demand of infrastructure and real estate weakens, and the downstream start - up rate of PVC is expected to decline seasonally. There is no specific implementation time for India's anti - dumping duty, and overseas demand remains uncertain. The domestic supply - demand contradiction is significant, and it is difficult to reduce PVC inventory, with high inventory pressure likely to continue. The price support of calcium carbide and ethylene at the cost end is limited. In the short term, V2601 is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 4,490 - 4,620 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 81 yuan. The trading volume was 904,897 lots, an increase of 104,133 lots. The open interest was 1,462,731 lots, an increase of 107,190 lots. The long position of the top 20 futures holders was 1,060,264 lots, an increase of 63,708 lots; the short position was 1,318,874 lots, an increase of 98,864 lots; the net long position was - 258,610 lots, a decrease of 35,156 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,531.92 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.54 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,692.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,596.88 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.38 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 690 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 650 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 670 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 30 yuan/ton, an increase of 61 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; in North China, it was 2,631.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; in Northwest China, it was 2,484 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 24.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR Far East intermediate price of VCM was 488 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 538 US dollars/ton, an increase of 20 US dollars. The CFR Far East intermediate price of EDC was 179 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 184 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The operating rate of PVC was 78.51%, a decrease of 2.24 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 80.79%, a decrease of 0.42 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 73.25%, a decrease of 6.44 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC was 532,300 tons, a decrease of 13,400 tons; the inventory in the East China region was 484,900 tons, a decrease of 12,600 tons; the inventory in the South China region was 47,400 tons, a decrease of 800 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 92.78, a decrease of 0.27. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 45.399 million square meters, an increase of 5.59799 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area was 6.4858 billion square meters, an increase of 5.47106 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment was 358.6387 billion yuan, an increase of 41.6993 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 9.49%, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 10.12%, unchanged. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 14.42%, an increase of 0.36 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 14.42%, an increase of 0.36 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - From November 8th to 14th, the capacity utilization rate of PVC producers was 78.51%, a decrease of 2.24% compared with the previous period. The downstream start - up rate of PVC decreased by 0.06% to 49.54%, among which the start - up rate of pipes increased by 1.2% to 40.6%, and the start - up rate of profiles decreased by 0.65% to 36.96%. As of November 13th, the social inventory of PVC decreased by 1.27% to 1.0283 million tons compared with the previous week. As of November 13th, the average cost of calcium carbide - based PVC decreased to 5,152 yuan/ton, and the average cost of ethylene - based PVC nationwide decreased to 5,239 yuan/ton; the profit of calcium carbide - based PVC decreased to - 823 yuan/ton, and the profit of ethylene - based PVC decreased to - 495 yuan/ton [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the PVC market has significant domestic supply - demand contradictions. With high inventory pressure likely to persist, short - term V2601 is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 4500 - 4630 yuan/ton. The decrease in raw material prices has led to a decline in production costs, but due to weak spot prices, losses in both calcium carbide and ethylene methods have deepened. As the temperature drops, downstream demand in infrastructure and real estate is expected to weaken seasonally, and overseas demand remains uncertain [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4601 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton; trading volume was 800,764 lots, a decrease of 175,156 lots; open interest was 1,355,541 lots, an increase of 7,172 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 219,361 lots, an increase of 8,824 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the ethylene - based PVC price was 4620 yuan/ton, unchanged; the calcium carbide - based PVC price was 4548.46 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.62 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the ethylene - based PVC price was 4692.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; the calcium carbide - based PVC price was 4606.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.38 yuan/ton. The CIF price of PVC in China was 690 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2681.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.33 yuan/ton; in Northwest China, it was 2494 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 24.5 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC was 78.51%, a decrease of 2.24%. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 80.79%, a decrease of 0.42%; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 73.25%, a decrease of 6.44%. The total social inventory of PVC was 532,300 tons, a decrease of 13,400 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index was 92.78, a decrease of 0.27. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 45,3990,000 square meters, an increase of 55,979,900 square meters; the cumulative value of real - estate construction area was 6,485,800,000 square meters, an increase of 54,710,600 square meters; the cumulative value of real - estate development investment was 358.6387 billion yuan, an increase of 416.993 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 9.49%, a decrease of 0.11%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 10.12%, unchanged. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 14.06%, an increase of 0.13%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 14.06%, an increase of 0.14% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - From November 8th to 14th, the capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises was 78.51%, a decrease of 2.24% compared to the previous period. The downstream operating rate of PVC decreased by 0.06% to 49.54%, among which the operating rate of pipes increased by 1.2% to 40.6%, and the operating rate of profiles decreased by 0.65% to 36.96% [3]. - As of November 13th, the social inventory of PVC decreased by 1.27% to 1.0283 million tons compared to the previous week. The average cost of calcium carbide - based PVC decreased to 5152 yuan/ton, and the average cost of ethylene - based PVC decreased to 5239 yuan/ton; the profit of calcium carbide - based PVC decreased to - 823 yuan/ton, and the profit of ethylene - based PVC decreased to - 495 yuan/ton [3].

Core Viewpoint - The tin market is experiencing fluctuations with the main contract rising by 1.04% to 286,560 yuan/ton, influenced by tight domestic ore supply despite long-term easing expectations from Myanmar's Wa State resumption of production [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic mining sources remain tight, impacting the overall supply of tin [1] - The operating rate of tin smelting plants in Yunnan and Jiangxi stabilized at a high of 69.13%, but further increases are limited due to ongoing tightness in tin ore supply [1] - The seasonal maintenance of large smelting plants in Yunnan has concluded, leading to production recovery, but the supply of tin ore remains constrained [1] Market Conditions - Despite the approval of mining licenses in Myanmar's Wa State, actual export volumes are significantly below normal levels due to the rainy season and slow resumption of production, failing to fill the supply gap [1] - Recent declines in tin prices have spurred some downstream replenishment demand, but limited warehouse arrivals have resulted in a reduction of social tin inventory [1] Future Outlook - Jinrui Futures comments that recent price fluctuations are primarily driven by macroeconomic disturbances, with a slight accumulation expected under domestic baseline conditions, while overseas markets continue to experience low inventory levels [1] - Overall, the divergence between macroeconomic factors and fundamentals suggests that tin prices are likely to maintain a high-level oscillation [1]

Report Title - Nickel and Stainless Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report, dated October 31, 2025 [1] Report's Core Views Bullish Factors - Strong demand in the new energy sector, with increased production of ternary precursors, is driving up the price of nickel sulfate [3]. - High prices of nickel ore, and with the rainy season approaching in the Philippines, mines are more inclined to hold prices [3]. Bearish Factors - Weak fundamentals of refined nickel, with continuous accumulation of social inventory, suppressing the rebound of nickel prices [3]. - Insufficient demand in the stainless - steel sector, and the "Golden October" peak season was lackluster, with high social inventory [3]. Trading Advisory View - The macro sentiment and the current situation of fundamental oversupply counterbalance each other, limiting the upside potential of prices [3] Market Data Summary Nickel Futures - The closing prices of SHFE nickel contracts (main, continuous 1, 2, 3) decreased by -1.16%, -0.96%, -0.98%, -0.98% respectively, and LME nickel 3M decreased by -0.90%. The trading volume decreased by -23.48%, and the open interest decreased by -1.0%. The warehouse receipt quantity increased by 17.61%, and the basis of the main contract decreased by -77.14% [4] Stainless Steel Futures - The closing prices of stainless - steel contracts (main, continuous 1, 2, 3) decreased by -1%, -0.66%, -0.35%, -0.23% respectively. The trading volume decreased by -33.67%, and the open interest decreased by -22.61%. The warehouse receipt quantity decreased by -0.56%, and the basis of the main contract increased by 15.18% [5] Spot Prices - The prices of金川 nickel, imported nickel, 1 electrolytic nickel, nickel beans, and electrowon nickel increased by 0.24%, 0.21%, 0.25%, 0.20%, 0.29% respectively [5] Inventory Data - Domestic social nickel inventory increased by 1094 tons, LME nickel inventory decreased by 66 tons, stainless - steel social inventory increased by 0.4 thousand tons, and nickel pig iron inventory decreased by 174 tons [7] Data Charts - The report includes multiple data charts showing the historical trends of stainless - steel futures closing prices, nickel spot average prices, nickel and stainless - steel inventory, upstream nickel ore prices and inventory, downstream nickel sulfate prices and profit margins, and stainless - steel production and profit margins [8][9][14]