1. Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: February 10, 2026 [3] 2. BR (Butadiene Rubber) Data Summary Futures Data - On February 9, the closing price of the BR main contract was 12,810, up 20 from the previous day and down 375 week - on - week [4] - The position was 27,608, up 331 from the previous day and down 9,713 week - on - week [4] - The trading volume was 174,314, down 30,875 from the previous day and down 103,781 week - on - week [4] - The number of warehouse receipts was 32,270, up 100 from the previous day and up 4,380 week - on - week [4] - The long - short ratio was 4.28, unchanged from the previous day and down 2 week - on - week [4] Basis and Spread Data - The butadiene - styrene basis was 190, down 70 from the previous day and up 175 week - on - week [4] - The 02 - 03 spread was - 255, down 270 from the previous day and down 60 week - on - week [4] - The 03 - 04 spread was - 15, up 40 from the previous day and up 45 week - on - week [4] - The RU - BR spread was 3435, up 145 from the previous day and up 440 week - on - week [4] - The NR - BR spread was 340, up 80 from the previous day and up 430 week - on - week [4] Spot and Price Data - The Shandong market price was 12,500, down 200 from the previous day and down 300 week - on - week [4] - The Chuanhua market price was 12,600, down 100 from the previous day and down 100 week - on - week [4] - The Qilu ex - factory price was 12,800, unchanged from the previous day and down 200 week - on - week [4] - CFR Northeast Asia was 1700, up 75 from the previous day and up 75 week - on - week [4] - CFR Southeast Asia was 1850, up 25 from the previous day and up 25 week - on - week [4] Profit Data - The spot processing profit was - 382, down 328 from the previous day and down 224 week - on - week [4] - The import profit was - 1294, down 756 from the previous day and down 842 week - on - week [4] - The export profit was 1297, up 318 from the previous day and up 392 week - on - week [4] 3. BD (Butadiene) Data Summary Spot and Price Data - The Shandong market price was 10,475, up 125 from the previous day and down 75 week - on - week [4] - The Jiangsu market price was 10,300, up 50 from the previous day and down 200 week - on - week [4] - The Yangzi ex - factory price was 10,300, unchanged from the previous day and down 200 week - on - week [4] - CFR China was 1270, unchanged from the previous day and unchanged week - on - week [4] Profit Data - The ethylene cracking profit data on February 9 was N/A [4] - The C4 extraction profit data on February 9 was N/A [4] - The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 1780, up 100 from the previous day and down 130 week - on - week [4] - The import profit was 215, up 74 from the previous day and down 166 week - on - week [4] - The export profit was - 804, down 63 from the previous day and up 2090 week - on - week [4] Production Profit Data - The styrene - butadiene production profit was 900, up 38 from the previous day and up 188 week - on - week [4] - The ABS production profit data after February 5 was N/A [4] - The SBS production profit was - 860, up 45 from the previous day and up 185 week - on - week [4]

消息面 本周PTA工厂库存在3.74天，较上周+0.16天，较去年同期+0.08天。 聚酯供需来看，目前PX与PTA加工利润均处于相对高位，但PX与PTA短期开工预期变化不大，对PX利 润高位形成支撑，PX基本面短期带来的驱动不强；而下游聚酯及终端处于需求淡季，相关装置开工率 持续走低，需求的减弱可能会导致PTA进一步累库，PTA加工利润偏压缩看待，PTA短期价格承压。 东海期货： 聚酯板块受负反馈影响回落，PTA仓位基本稳定，前期主力对前高进行突破测试过程中，资金持仓逐渐 减量，向上驱动减弱。下游开工进一步减少，除去年前正常降负荷外，减产存续也进一步降低对PTA采 购需求，基差近期持续缓慢走低，近期价格将进一步有回调驱动。 数据显示，PTA装置暂无明显变化，PTA负荷维持在76.6%。西南一套100万吨PTA装置重启准备中，预 计近日恢复正常，该装置11月上旬停车检修。 机构观点 迈科期货： 数据显示，2月4日华东地区精对苯二甲酸（PTA）现货价格报5150元/吨，较上一日上涨65元/吨，当日 涨幅为1.28%。最近一周，华东地区精对苯二甲酸（PTA）价格累计下跌100元/吨，下跌幅度为1.90%； 最近一 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content Summary by Relevant Catalogs BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Futures**: The closing price of the BR main contract on January 28th was 13,265, with a daily change of 220 and a weekly change not fully legible; the holding volume was 76,340, a daily decrease of 3,155 and a weekly decrease of 20,342; the trading volume was 514,932, a daily decrease of 234,887 and a weekly increase of 332,175; the warrant quantity was 28,220, a daily increase of 100 and a weekly increase of 1,300; the virtual - real ratio was 13.53, a daily decrease of 1 and a weekly decrease of 4; the butadiene rubber basis was -315, a daily decrease of 70 and a weekly increase of 105; the styrene - butadiene basis was -72 (illegible in original data), a daily decrease of 220 and a weekly increase of 5; the 02 - 03 spread was -75, a daily decrease of 35 and a weekly increase of 5; the 03 - 04 spread was 10, a daily decrease of 5 and a weekly increase of 30; the RU - BR spread was 3,095, a daily decrease of 65 and a weekly decrease of 485; the NR - BR spread was -75, a daily decrease of 115 and a weekly decrease of 540 [4] - **Spot**: The Shandong market price was 12,950, a daily increase of 150 and a weekly increase of 1,100; the Transfar market price was 12,900, a daily increase of 150 and a weekly increase of 1,050; the Qilu ex - factory price was 13,000, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 1,000; the CFR Northeast Asia price was 1,520, with no daily change and no weekly change; the CFR Southeast Asia price was 1,785, a daily increase of 35 and a weekly increase of 35 [4] - **Profit**: The spot processing profit was 15, a daily increase of 380 and a weekly increase of 616; the import profit was 271, a daily increase of 149 and a weekly increase of 1,117; the export profit was 511, a daily increase of 113 and a weekly decrease of 729 [4] BD (Butadiene) - **Spot**: The Shandong market price was 10,525, a daily decrease of 225 and a weekly increase of 475; the Jiangsu market price was 10,450, a daily decrease of 250 and a weekly increase of 600; the Yangzi ex - factory price was 10,600, a daily decrease of 200 and a weekly increase of 700; the CFR China price was 1,270, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 90 [4] - **Profit**: The carbon four extraction profit was not fully available in the data; the import profit was 319, a daily decrease of 250 and a weekly decrease of 95; the export profit was -1,035, a daily increase of 774 and a weekly change not fully legible; the styrene - butadiene production profit was 180 (illegible in original data), a daily increase of 350 and a weekly increase of 438; the ABS production profit data was not fully available; the SBS production profit was -1,130, a daily increase of 140 and a weekly decrease of 135 [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views PTA - PTA supply is under planned maintenance, demand is seasonally weakening, and the balance is gradually entering a seasonal inventory accumulation phase. The supply - demand drive is average with a processing fee of around 300+. Short - term expectations are not bad, and attention should be paid to capital changes [5][57]. PX - PX supply - demand changes are minimal. Near - term imports are rising while demand is weakening, leading to a slight inventory build - up. Long - term expectations are favorable, and short - term valuations are not low. Attention should be paid to capital preferences [6]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - The cost of ethylene glycol has corrected, the expected import arrivals are not low, polyester is in a seasonal production cut, and the near - term faces seasonal inventory accumulation. After a short - term correction, the valuation is in a low - level range, and it is expected to trade in a range in the short term [7][137]. Summary by Related Catalogs Polyester - Polyester maintenance is gradually increasing, and the load is seasonally declining. As of January 16, the polyester load was around 88.3%, and the estimated loads for January and February are 88% and 83% respectively. Polyester cash flow has improved significantly, and the average inventory is around 12.9 days, with overall inventory pressure being low [8][14][38]. - Terminal new orders are average. Domestic demand has entered the pre - holiday off - season, while foreign demand is reported to have improved. As of January 15, the operating rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing have slightly decreased to 70% (- 2%), 55% (- 1%), and 70% (+ 1%) respectively [9]. PTA - PTA device changes: New materials are under planned maintenance, Ineos' 1.25 - million - ton device is shut down until the end of March, Dushan No.3 has restarted, Dushan No.2 is planned to shut down at the end of the month, and YS's three sets of devices and Sichuan Energy Investment are under maintenance. The planned maintenance volume from January to February is not low [45]. - PTA inventory: As of January 16, the social inventory of PTA (excluding credit warehouse receipts) has increased by 40,000 tons to 2.045 million tons. The inventory in warehouses and ports has slightly decreased, while the inventory in PTA and polyester factories has increased. Currently, the PTA inventory pressure is not high [46]. - PTA balance sheet: From January to February, there is a slight seasonal inventory accumulation. The PTA processing fee remains stable, and the short - term drive is average. Attention should be paid to capital changes, and after a correction, it is advisable to be cautiously bullish at low levels [57]. PX - PX device changes: The domestic PX load is 89.4%, and the Asian load is 80.6%. Jinling in China has slightly increased its load, Zhejiang Petrochemical has reduced its load as planned, and Fuhua has plans for maintenance and capacity expansion. In Asia, Thailand's PTTG has restarted and increased its load, and a 190,000 - ton device in Israel has restarted [85]. - PX balance sheet: The near - term changes are minimal, and the PX supply - demand is in a loose balance. The PXN is around 330+ and the valuation has slightly weakened, with an unclear drive [89]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - MEG device changes: The domestic MEG load is 74%, and the coal - based load is 80%. Fude, Sinochem Quanzhou, and one line of Shenghong are under maintenance, Zhejiang Petrochemical has reduced its load, and Sanjiang plans to reduce its load in February. The restart of Henan Energy has been postponed, and Yankuang has restarted. Overseas, two sets of devices of Taiwan Nan Ya are shut down, three sets of devices in Saudi Arabia are under maintenance, the Kuwaiti device is under maintenance for one month, an Iranian device is under maintenance, and a 360,000 - ton device of US Nan Ya is under maintenance [104][108][124]. - MEG inventory: As of January 19, the port inventory in the main port area of East China is about 795,000 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons month - on - month. The overall inventory is moderately high. The expected arrival volume from January 19 - 25 is 205,000 tons, and the port inventory is expected to slightly increase. The raw material stocking days of polyester factories for ethylene glycol are 15.2 days (+ 0.6), and downstream stocking has steadily increased [132]. - MEG balance sheet: The near - term port arrival expectations are high, and it is in a seasonal inventory accumulation phase. The drive is average, and it is expected to trade in a range [137].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints No information provided. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Futures Indicators**: The closing price of the BR main contract on 1/15 was 12,190, a daily decrease of 60 and a weekly decrease of 5. The open interest was 99,183, a daily decrease of 1,393. The trading volume was 150,035, a daily decrease of 26,996 and a weekly decrease of 17,602. The warehouse receipt quantity remained at 26,330, with a weekly increase of 2,000. The long - short ratio was 18.83, with a weekly increase of 13 [4]. - **Basis/Spread/Inter - Variety**: The butadiene rubber basis was - 190, a daily increase of 60 and a weekly increase of 5. The styrene - butadiene basis was 110, a daily increase of 110. The 02 - 03 spread was - 60, a daily decrease of 30 and a weekly decrease of 25. The 03 - 04 spread was - 35, a daily decrease of 10 and a weekly decrease of 20. The RU - BR spread was 3,805, a daily decrease of 105 and a weekly decrease of 120. The NR - BR spread was 660, a daily decrease of 105 and a weekly decrease of 210 [4]. - **Spot (Domestic/External)**: The Shandong market price, Chuanhua market price remained unchanged at 12,000 and 11,950 respectively. The Qilu ex - factory price remained at 12,100, with a weekly increase of 200. The CFR Northeast Asia price remained at 1,450, with a weekly increase of 35. The CFR Southeast Asia price remained at 1,675, with a weekly increase of 40 [4]. - **Profit**: The spot processing profit was - 273, a daily decrease of 77 and a weekly decrease of 383. The import profit was 75, a daily increase of 7 and a weekly decrease of 237. The export profit was 603, a daily decrease of 7 and a weekly increase of 242 [4]. BD (Butadiene) - **Spot (Domestic/External)**: The Shandong market price on 1/15 was 9,875, a daily increase of 75 and a weekly increase of 375. The Jiangsu market price remained at 9,650, with a weekly increase of 350. The Yangzi ex - factory price remained at 9,550, with a weekly increase of 450. The CFR China price remained at 1,140 [4]. - **Profit**: The ethylene cracking profit data on 1/15 was N/A. The carbon - four extraction profit data on 1/15 was N/A. The import profit was 516, a daily increase of 5 and a weekly decrease of 687. The export profit was - 1,432, a daily increase of 694 and a weekly increase of 1,281. The styrene - butadiene production profit was 663, a daily decrease of 25 and a weekly decrease of 225. The ABS production profit remained at - 871, with a weekly decrease of 58. The SBS production profit was - 615, a daily decrease of 30 and a weekly decrease of 220 [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PTA: Core view - Neutral; Spot - Cautiously bullish; Cost - Neutral; Device change - Neutral; Downstream demand - Neutral; Supply - demand balance - Cautiously bullish; Processing profit - Neutral [5] - PX: Core view - Neutral; Spot - Neutral; Device change - Cautiously bearish; Import - Neutral; Downstream demand - Neutral; Supply - demand balance - Neutral; Processing profit - Cautiously bearish [6] - Ethylene glycol: Core view - Neutral; Spot - Cautiously bearish; Device change - Cautiously bullish; Import - Neutral; Downstream demand - Neutral; Supply - demand balance - Neutral; Processing profit - Cautiously bullish [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: December shows balanced de - stocking. Considering some long - stopped devices won't restart, the inventory build - up pressure in January and February is not high. Demand seasonally weakens slightly, and costs have corrected significantly. With an expected good pattern, focus on low - buying opportunities after crude oil stabilizes [5]. - PX: The overall pattern is expected to be good. Short - term supply and demand change little, and PXN maintains a relatively high valuation. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities [6]. - Ethylene glycol: The supply side has marginal improvements with increased oil and coal device maintenance. December's balance improves, with limited short - term downside space. However, it still faces inventory build - up pressure and will fluctuate at low levels in the short term [7]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Terminal Demand - Weaving orders are weakening. Domestic terminal orders are winding down, and foreign demand samples haven't been ordered in bulk. The operating rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing have slightly decreased to 83% (- 2%), 67% (- 2%), and 70% (- 4%) respectively. Finished product inventories are rising slightly, and new order volume is weakening. There may be a pre - holiday stock - up wave before the Spring Festival in 2026, around mid - January [9] - As of December 12, polyester load is around 91.2%, with low cash flow. Polyester average inventory is about 16 days, with low inventory pressure and a slight increase. Polyester开工率 remains high, and the overall cash flow is average. Polyester as a whole has average profitability, with compressed profits for filament POY and FDY, and fair profitability for staple fiber [14][15] - As of December 11, polyester load is 91.2%. Forecasts for November and December are 91% and 91% (+1%). In the future, with low inventory pressure and a relatively late Spring Festival in 2026, the loads of filament and staple fiber are expected to remain high [41] PTA - PTA device maintenance changes little. Devices are under planned maintenance with a high volume. YS Ningbo, Dahua, and Hainan are under maintenance, as well as Ineos, Sichuan Energy Investment, and Dushan No.1. The planned maintenance in January 2026 is not high. After Ineos' 1.1 million - ton restart, 1.25 million tons may be under maintenance. Watch for new material plans [47] - As of December 11, PTA social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) is 2.15 million tons, showing a slight decline. Before the end of the year, PTA inventory pressure is low [48] - PTA's short - term supply is tight, with little change in supply and demand. The overall pattern is expected to be good. Consider low - buying on corrections. The supply side has devices under planned maintenance with little change and high maintenance volume. The demand side has polyester load maintaining at a high of 91.2% as of December 12, but downstream orders are weakening [59] - The net short - position of foreign - controlled futures company seats in PTA changes little [60] PX - US gasoline inventories are rising from the bottom, and gasoline cracking spreads are falling from highs [71] - Asian short - process profitability has slightly improved [73] - The aromatics price spread between the US and Asia has slightly narrowed. The toluene price spread is 189 yuan, and the xylene price spread is $155.9. Xylene tariffs have been waived. Exports of aromatics from South Korea to the US increased slightly in October - November, and there are plans to export pure benzene to North America in December. North American aromatics inventory is expected to increase slightly at the end of the year [81] - PX device operation: Domestic load remains stable at 88.1%, and Asian load is 79.3%. Shanghai Petrochemical has slightly reduced its load, and Zhejiang Petrochemical plans to reduce its load in January. Overseas, GS disproportionation is shut down, Idemitsu's one line has restarted, and Saudi Satorp has restarted [83] - The overall PX pattern is expected to be good, with little short - term change in supply and demand. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities. The PX supply - demand is in a loose balance, with a relatively high PXN valuation around $280. It will fluctuate in the short term, and low - buying is recommended [88] - The price spread between PX's outer and inner markets has stabilized, the 3 - 5 month spread of PX has remained firm, and the TA05 processing fee is at the bottom [89] - The industrial chain profit has slightly recovered from a low level, with the valuation mainly concentrated in PXN, which has recently risen to a high level. PTA processing fees remain low. Currently, the PTA - crude oil price spread has recovered, reflecting some positive expectations. PXN is relatively high overall. Look for opportunities to expand PTA processing fees after the demand off - season correction [98] Ethylene Glycol - As of December 12, the overall ethylene glycol load is 69.93%, and the coal - based load is 72%. Oil - based process maintenance/load reduction has increased [100] - Many ethylene glycol devices have maintenance plans. Domestic maintenance has slightly increased, and the overall load has decreased to 69.9%. The syngas - based load is 72.17%. New device Ningxia Changyi's 200,000 - ton production is ramping up [105][107] - Overseas device maintenance has increased. Shipments to China in November - December are high, estimated at 650,000 tons each month. Shipments may decline in January - February [123] - As of December 17, the ethylene glycol inventory in East China's main ports is about 844,000 tons, a 25,000 - ton increase from last week. Forecasts for arrivals in late December are moderately high, and port inventories are expected to rise slightly. Polyester factories' ethylene glycol raw material inventory days are 13.9 days (+0.1), and downstream inventory has slightly increased [130] - Ethylene glycol's supply side has marginal improvements, with increased oil and coal device maintenance. December's balance has improved, with limited short - term downside space. However, it still faces inventory build - up pressure and will fluctuate at low levels in the short term [135]

Report Overview - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Report Date: November 20, 2025 [3] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] Key Data Summary BR (Cis - Polybutadiene Rubber) - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the BR main contract (12) on November 19 was 10,705, up 200 from the previous day and 225 from the previous week. The open interest was 71,378, down 643 from the previous day and 4,987 from the previous week. The trading volume was 120,480, down 20,666 from the previous day but up 20,847 from the previous week. The warrant quantity was 12,030, down 220 from the previous day and 480 from the previous week. The long - short ratio was 29.67, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 1. [4] - **Basis/Spread Data**: The cis - polybutadiene basis was - 100 on November 19 compared to the previous day and - 75 compared to the previous week. The styrene - butadiene basis was - 200 on November 19 compared to the previous day and - 75 compared to the previous week. The 12 - 01 spread was - 40 on November 19, down 45 from the previous day and 40 from the previous week. The 01 - 02 spread was 15 on November 19, down 5 from the previous day but up 10 from the previous week. The RU - BR spread was 4,735 on November 19, down 55 from the previous day and 175 from the previous week. The NR - BR spread was 1,775 on November 19, down 65 from the previous day and 145 from the previous week. [4] - **Spot Data**: The Shandong market price was 10,650 on November 19, up 100 from the previous day and 150 from the previous week. The Transfar market price was 10,450 on November 19, up 50 from the previous day and 30 from the previous week. The Qilu ex - factory price was 10,500 on November 19, with no daily change but up 200 from the previous week. The CFR Northeast Asia price was 1,350 on November 19, with no daily change but down 50 from the previous week. The CFR Southeast Asia price was 1,640 on November 19, with no daily change but down 45 from the previous week. [4] - **Profit Data**: The spot processing profit was 800 on November 19, down 104 from the previous day and 207 from the previous week. The import profit was - 699 on November 19, up 102 from the previous day and 532 from the previous week. The export profit was 1,744 on November 19, down 89 from the previous day and 431 from the previous week. [4] BD (Butadiene) - **Spot Data**: The Shandong market price was 7,500 on November 19, up 200 from the previous day and 350 from the previous week. The Jiangsu market price was 7,225 on November 19, up 175 from the previous day and 275 from the previous week. The Yangzi ex - factory price was 7,200 on November 19, up 200 from the previous day and 200 from the previous week. The CFR China price was 770 on November 19, with no daily change but down 20 from the previous week. [4] - **Profit Data**: The ethylene cracking profit was N/A on November 19. The carbon - four extraction profit was N/A on November 19. The butadiene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was - 1,589 on November 19, up 175 from the previous day and 135 from the previous week. The import profit was 890 on November 19, up 176 from the previous day and 425 from the previous week. The export profit was - 1,460 on November 19, down 295 from the previous day. The styrene - butadiene production profit was 1,400 on November 19, down 50 from the previous day but up 200 from the previous week. The ABS production profit was N/A on November 19. The SBS production profit was - 360 on November 19, down 140 from the previous day and 200 from the previous week. [4] Data Sources - The data in the report is sourced from Mysteel and Wind [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report provides trend analyses and viewpoints on various energy - chemical futures on November 12, 2025. Different futures have different trends, including high - level oscillations, weakening trends, and short - term support. For example, PX is relatively strong in the short - term due to overseas blending oil demand; MEG has a weakening price trend due to supply pressure; and rubber is in an oscillating state [11][13]. Summaries by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **Market Dynamics**: On November 11, PX prices fell, and the weakness in the PX spot market became more obvious. The floating spread of PX turned from a premium to a discount. MEG had a high planned arrival volume at major ports from November 10 - 16, and a large - scale MEG device was restarting. Polyester sales were weak on November 11 [6][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: PX and PTA have a trend intensity of 0, while MEG has a trend intensity of - 1 [11]. - **Views and Suggestions**: PX is relatively strong in the short - term due to overseas blending oil demand supporting the aromatics valuation. PTA is in a high - level oscillating state, and it is advisable to short the processing fee at high levels. MEG has a weakening price trend, and it is advisable to short the spread at high levels [11]. Rubber - **Fundamental Tracking**: The rubber futures market had small price fluctuations, and the spot market prices of some varieties changed slightly. The domestic production area is entering the reduction period, and the Qingdao inventory is in the seasonal accumulation period [13][15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rubber is 0 [13]. - **Industry News**: The prices of raw materials in Thailand and domestic production areas are stable, and the domestic raw material prices are firm, but the inventory pressure suppresses the rubber price [14][15]. Synthetic Rubber - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures prices of synthetic rubber decreased slightly, and the spot prices of some varieties increased slightly. The inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber decreased, and the raw material butadiene price was stable [16][17]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of synthetic rubber is 0 [18]. - **Industry News**: The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber decreased, and the spot transaction improved, forming a short - term oscillating support pattern. In the medium - term, butadiene is in a weak state, driving the dynamic downward movement of cis - butadiene rubber [19]. Asphalt - **Fundamental Tracking**: The asphalt futures prices increased slightly, and the spot prices in some areas decreased slightly. The domestic asphalt production decreased slightly this week, the factory inventory increased, and the social inventory decreased [20][35]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of asphalt is 1 [28]. - **Market News**: The domestic asphalt production decreased slightly this week, the factory inventory in Shandong increased significantly, and the social inventory in Shandong decreased significantly [35]. LLDPE - **Fundamental Tracking**: The LLDPE futures price decreased, and the spot prices in some areas decreased slightly. The raw material oil price oscillated, and the monomer profit was compressed [36][37]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of LLDPE is 0 [38]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: The raw material oil price oscillated, the monomer profit was compressed, and the downstream demand had rigid support, but the mid - and downstream inventory - holding willingness weakened after the price decline last week [37]. PP - **Fundamental Tracking**: The PP futures price decreased, and the spot market was slightly weak. The trade war, oil price, high supply, and low downstream profits jointly pressured the PP price [40][41]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of PP is - 1 [42]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: Multiple factors jointly pressured the PP price, and the weak demand and high supply will continue to suppress the price in the long - term [41]. Caustic Soda - **Fundamental Tracking**: The caustic soda futures price and the spot price in Shandong decreased. The high - production and high - inventory pattern of caustic soda continued, and the market continued to short the chlor - alkali profit [44][45][46]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0 [47]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: The high - production and high - inventory pattern of caustic soda continued, and the demand and cost factors limited the rebound space of caustic soda [46]. Pulp - **Fundamental Tracking**: The pulp futures price oscillated, and the spot price increased slightly. The futures market was driven by funds and arbitrage behavior, and the actual demand did not increase significantly [51][52]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of pulp is 0 [51]. - **Industry News**: The pulp futures market was high - level oscillating, and the spot price increased, but the actual demand did not increase significantly. The supply pressure remained, and the downstream demand was weak [52][53]. Glass - **Fundamental Tracking**: The glass futures price decreased, and the spot price was stable. The domestic float glass market price was weakly sorted, and the downstream procurement was based on low - price selection [54]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of glass is 0 [54]. - **Spot News**: The domestic float glass market price was weakly sorted, and the downstream procurement was cautious [54]. Methanol - **Fundamental Tracking**: The methanol futures price decreased, and the spot price in some areas increased. The methanol market was regionally adjusted, and the supply was high while the demand was under pressure [56][58]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of methanol is - 1 [59]. - **Spot News**: The methanol spot price index increased slightly, and the market was regionally adjusted. The supply was high, and the demand was under pressure [58]. Urea - **Fundamental Tracking**: The urea futures price decreased, and the spot price was stable. The urea enterprise inventory increased slightly, and the production and sales were in a weak balance [60][61]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of urea is 0 [62]. - **Industry News**: The urea enterprise inventory increased slightly, and the short - term urea is expected to oscillate. The domestic fundamental pressure is large, but the downward driving force is weakened by policies [61][62]. Styrene - **Fundamental Tracking**: The styrene futures price decreased, and the profit margin improved slightly. The contradiction in the styrene market is not significant, and the pure benzene is in a weak pattern [63][64]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of styrene is 0 [63]. - **Spot News**: The contradiction in the styrene market is not significant, and the pure benzene is in a weak pattern. It is advisable to wait and see in the short - term [64]. Soda Ash - **Fundamental Tracking**: The soda ash futures price increased slightly, and the spot price was stable. The comprehensive supply of soda ash decreased slightly, and the downstream demand was general [66]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of soda ash is 0 [67]. - **Spot News**: The domestic soda ash market oscillated, and it is expected to be stable and oscillating in the short - term [66]. LPG, Propylene - **Fundamental Tracking**: The LPG and propylene futures prices had small fluctuations, and the spot prices of some varieties changed slightly. The PDH and MTBE operating rates increased [71]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of LPG and propylene are 0 [75]. - **Market News**: The CP paper prices of propane and butane changed slightly, and there are many PDH and LPG device maintenance plans [76][77]. PVC - **Fundamental Tracking**: The PVC futures price decreased, and the spot price continued to decline. The PVC market has a high - production and high - inventory structure, and the export may slow down [79]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of PVC is - 1 [80]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: The PVC market has a high - production and high - inventory structure, and the export may slow down. The trend still has pressure [79]. Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fundamental Tracking**: The fuel oil futures price decreased, and the low - sulfur fuel oil futures price increased slightly at night. The high - and low - sulfur spread of the outer - market spot rebounded slightly [82]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil are 1 [82]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil in different regions changed slightly [82]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Fundamental Tracking**: The container shipping index (European line) futures prices had different trends, and the freight rates of different routes changed. The SCFIS of the European and US - West routes increased, while the SCFI decreased [84]. - **Trend Intensity**: No trend intensity is provided for the container shipping index (European line). - **Freight Index**: The freight rates of different routes changed, and the future shipping schedules may be dynamically adjusted [84][87].

Industry Investment Ratings - PTA: Neutral [5] - PX: Neutral [6] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Neutral for overall view, with cautious bias in some aspects [7] Core Views - PTA has fair supply - demand, with a slight reduction in supply - side load. It faces seasonal inventory accumulation pressure from November to December, is highly affected by cost, and has limited improvement in supply - demand [5][44]. - PX has a high domestic supply, fair demand, and a favorable expected pattern. Its floating price remains strong, PXN valuation is reasonable, and it fluctuates with cost in the short - term [6]. - Ethylene glycol has some increased maintenance, fair demand, but lacks driving force in the seasonal inventory accumulation period. High supply causes pressure, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [7][112]. Summary by Related Catalogs Demand and Polyester Situation - Domestic demand is fair, with terminal fabric sales improving, finished - product inventory decreasing, and the operating rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing rising to 86%, 76%, and 82% respectively. Polyester load reached 91.7% by October 31st, with inventory pressure easing and expected high - level operation in November [9][14]. - Polyester profit is slightly compressed due to the rebound of raw materials. Long - filament profitability is reduced, while bottle - grade and staple - fiber cash flows are fair [15]. PTA Situation - PTA maintenance plans in November are not few. YS Dahua and Shandong Weilian slightly reduced their loads, and Ineos, Sichuan Energy Investment, Dushan 1, and Honggang have maintenance plans. Dushan Energy's new device has started production [36][44]. - As of October 31st, PTA social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) increased to 220.7 tons, up 0.6 tons. In - port and in - warehouse goods slightly decreased, and credit warehouse receipts increased [40]. - PTA supply - side maintenance volume is high, demand is fair, and the inventory accumulation pressure from November to December is slightly reduced. Processing fees are still low, and it is mainly affected by cost in the short - term [44]. PX Situation - The US gasoline inventory continues to decline, and the octane number is stable and strong. The economics of gasoline blending has improved, while the Asian disproportionation profit has been compressed [56][59]. - The PX domestic load is at a high level of 87%. Wushi Petrochemical has restarted after maintenance, and Fujia plans to restart a production line. Asian load is 78%, with some devices having maintenance or restart plans [6][65]. - The PX balance sheet is expected to be tight, the floating price has improved, and PXN is around $240, with a reasonable valuation. It is affected by cost in the short - term [70]. Ethylene Glycol Situation - As of October 31st, the overall load of ethylene glycol is at a high level of 76%, and the coal - based load is 83%. Some devices have restarted, some are under maintenance, and there are maintenance and load - reduction plans in November and December [78][82]. - Overseas, Maoming Petrochemical is shut down, Taiwan Nanya is under maintenance, and some US and Canadian devices have restarted or are under maintenance. Imports may increase in November [97]. - As of November 3rd, the port inventory of MEG in East China is about 56.2 tons, up 3.9 tons. The expected arrival volume is high, and short - term port inventory is expected to accumulate [107]. - From November to December, ethylene glycol maintains seasonal inventory accumulation, with high supply pressure and general driving force, and is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short - term [112].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report No explicit core view is presented in the provided content. The report mainly offers data on the market situation of synthetic rubber, including price, volume, basis, and profit information for BR and BD. 3. Summary by Related Catalog BR (Cis - 1,4 - polybutadiene rubber) - **Futures Information**: On November 3, the BR主力合约(12) price was 10360, down 225 from the previous day and 445 from the previous week. The open interest was 37796, down 3692 from the previous day and 10822 from the previous week. The trading volume was 149850, up 31566 from the previous day and 37414 from the previous week. The warrant quantity remained at 8580, with no daily or weekly change. The long - short ratio was 22.03, down 2 from the previous day and 6 from the previous week [3]. - **Basis/Spread/Inter - Variety Spread**: The cis - butadiene basis was 140, down 25 from the previous day and 5 from the previous week. The styrene - butadiene basis was 740, up 125 from the previous day. The 12 - 01 spread was 30, up 45 from the previous week. The 01 - 02 spread was 5, up 15 from the previous day and 15 from the previous week. The RU - BR spread was 4735, up 235 from the previous day and 180 from the previous week. The NR - BR spread was 1840, up 195 from the previous day and 115 from the previous week [3]. - **Spot Price**: The Shandong market price was 10500, down 250 from the previous day and 450 from the previous week. The Transfar market price was 10350, down 250 from the previous day and 550 from the previous week. The Qilu ex - factory price was 10500, down 500 from the previous day and 500 from the previous week. The CFR Northeast Asia price was 1450, with no daily change and down 25 from the previous week. The CFR Southeast Asia price was 1700, with no daily or weekly change [3]. - **Profit**: The spot processing profit was 961, up 10 from the previous day and 320 from the previous week. The import profit was - 1666, down 260 from the previous day and 277 from the previous week. The export profit was 2315, up 227 from the previous day and 419 from the previous week [3]. BD (Butadiene) - **Spot Price**: The Shandong market price was 7195, down 255 from the previous day and 755 from the previous week. The Jiangsu market price was 7200, down 200 from the previous day and 700 from the previous week. The Yangzi ex - factory price was 7200, down 300 from the previous day and 1000 from the previous week. The CFR China price was 850, down 60 from the previous day and 110 from the previous week [3]. - **Profit**: The carbon - four extraction profit was not available for calculation on November 3. The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was - 1376, down 312 from the previous day and 742 from the previous week. The import profit was 215, up 276 from the previous day and 167 from the previous week. The export profit was - 294, up 37 from the previous day and - 193 from the previous week. The Japanese production profit was 1238, down 275 from the previous day and 275 from the previous week. The ABS production profit and SBS production profit data were partially unavailable [3].