中信期货 IIC Futures EIA周度数据:炼厂开工下行,原油大幅累库 美国原油产量(万桶/日) -- 2022 -2023 - 2025 -2026 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 | 2026年2月26日 | 能源化工组 李云旭 | | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格: | 从业资格号 F03141405 | | 证监许可【2012】669号 投资咨询号 Z0021671 | | 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和 信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会因为 关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风 险,投资需谨慎。 美国2月20日当周商业原油库存增加1598.9万桶,近期单周库存波动较大,年初以来美国原油以季节 性累库为主。美国炼厂开工率由91%回落至88.6%,原油加工量下降41.6万桶/日,仍处同期偏高水平,美 国单周原油净进口增加41.2万桶/日,亦对国内库存形成边际压力。炼厂开工率下行后成品 ...

"信期货 -2024 2022 -2023 2025 -2026 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 -2024 2022 -2023 2025 -2026 2400 2300 2200 2100 2000 1900 1800 1700 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 美国汽油表观需求(万桶/日) -2022 -2023 -2024 2025 -2026 1000 950 900 850 800 750 700 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 EIA周度数据:炼厂开工率延续回落 | 2026年2月12日 | 能源化工组 李云旭 | | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格: | 从业资格号 F03141405 | | 证监许可【2012】669号 | 投资咨询号 Z0021671 | 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中 ...

中信期货 36 33 1300 30 1250 27 24 1200 21 1150 18 1100 15 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 美国原油产量(万桶/日) 2023 2024 2022 2025 =2026 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 EIA周度数据:炼厂加速降负,汽柴累库放缓 | 2026年1月29日 | 能源化工组 李云旭 | 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格: | 从业资格号 | 和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会 因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场 | | 证监许可【2012】669号 | F03141405 | 有风险,投资需谨慎。 | | | 投资咨询号 ...

Group 1 - The report does not provide an industry investment rating Group 2 - The EIA data shows that the inventory pressure in the US energy market continues, and the weekly data is bearish [4] Group 3 EIA Weekly Data Overview - US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.602 million barrels in the week ending January 16, 2026 [4] - The refinery utilization rate dropped seasonally from 95.3% to 93.3% but remained at a high level for the same period [4] - Crude oil processing volume decreased by 354,000 barrels per day, which was the main driver of crude oil inventory accumulation [4] - Net crude oil exports increased by 27,000 barrels per day, with both imports and exports declining [4] - The estimated weekly crude oil production was revised down by 21,000 barrels per day [4] Inventory and Demand Data Details | Category | Unit | Current Value | Previous Value | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US commercial crude oil inventory change | 10,000 barrels | - 360.2 | △ 339.1 | | US Cushing crude oil inventory change | 10,000 barrels | △ 147.8 | - 74.5 | | US strategic petroleum reserve change | 10,000 barrels | ▲ 80.6 | △ 21.4 | | US gasoline inventory change | 10,000 barrels | △ 597.7 | ▲ 897.7 | | US diesel inventory change | 10,000 barrels | ▲ 334.8 | - 2.9 | | US jet fuel inventory change | 10,000 barrels | ▼ - 78.8 | ▼ - 89.2 | | US fuel oil inventory change | 10,000 barrels | ▼ - 58.5 | ▲ 173.5 | | US crude oil and petroleum product inventory change (excluding SPR) | 10,000 barrels | ▲ 753.8 | 4 621 | | US crude oil production | 10,000 barrels per day | 1373.2 | 1375.3 | | US refined oil apparent demand | 10,000 barrels per day | 2017.2 | 2100.9 | | US gasoline apparent demand | 10,000 barrels per day | 783.4 | 830.4 | | US diesel apparent demand | 10,000 barrels per day | 352.4 | 409.6 | | US crude oil imports | 10,000 barrels per day | 644.7 | 709.2 | | US crude oil exports | 10,000 barrels per day | 368.8 | 430.6 | | US refinery crude oil processing volume | 10,000 barrels per day | 1660.4 | 1695.8 | | US refinery utilization rate | % | 93.3 | 95.3 | [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil have recently shown large fluctuations, with the price trend reversing frequently. For high - sulfur fuel oil, Saudi Arabia and Iraq's exports remain high, Venezuelan heavy oil is gradually resuming supply to the US Gulf, and the geopolitical conflict in Iran has subsided. However, Russian high - sulfur exports are showing a downward trend, providing some support to the downside. For low - sulfur fuel oil, although the Al Zour refinery will gradually resume production and Japan's exports are increasing, there are still positive factors. Some Brazilian exports are decreasing, the Dangote refinery's maintenance will end in January, and European refineries are expected to process more heavy components, limiting low - sulfur exports. In the short term, the low - sulfur market has a bottom support and is unlikely to weaken significantly [4]. - The valuation range for FU is 2400 - 2590, and for LU is 2900 - 3150 [4]. - Strategies include: 1) For single - side trading, fuel oil prices are in a high - volatility environment in the short term, and the price direction is unclear. 2) For inter - period trading, the month - spread structures of FU and LU have returned to backwardation, and may return to contango after the geopolitical issues cool down. 3) For inter - variety trading, the crack spreads of FU and LU have reached short - term lows, and the LU - FU spread will enter a short - term oscillation [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Supply - The report presents data on the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (including overall, independent, and major refineries), global refinery maintenance (including hydrocracking, FCC, coking, and CDU units), and domestic refinery fuel oil production and commercial volume [6][10][17]. 3.2 Demand It shows domestic and international fuel oil demand data, such as the sales volume of fuel oil for ship supply in Singapore, the apparent consumption of fuel oil in China, and the actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China [23][24][26]. 3.3 Inventory The report provides data on global fuel oil spot inventories, including heavy oil inventories in Singapore, heavy distillate inventories in Fujairah, fuel oil inventories in European ARA, and residual fuel oil inventories in the US [28]. 3.4 Price and Spread - **Regional Spot FOB Prices**: It includes spot FOB prices in the Asia - Pacific region (Singapore and Fujairah for 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil), European region (North - West Europe for 3.5% and 1% fuel oil), and the US (US Gulf and New York Harbor for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil) [32][35][36]. - **Paper and Derivative Prices**: It shows prices of various fuel oil swaps, such as Singapore 380 bunker swaps, North - West Europe high - sulfur and low - sulfur swaps, and Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil swaps [37][38]. - **Fuel Oil Spot Spreads**: It presents the high - low sulfur spread and viscosity spread in Singapore [44]. - **Global Fuel Oil Crack Spreads**: It includes crack spreads in Singapore (high - sulfur and low - sulfur) and North - West Europe (3.5% and 1%) [47][49][51]. - **Global Fuel Oil Paper Month Spreads**: It shows month spreads in Singapore and North - West Europe for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil [57][58][59]. 3.5 Import and Export - **Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the import and export quantities of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China [62][64]. - **Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It presents the weekly changes in global high - sulfur fuel oil import and export quantities by region [65]. - **Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the weekly changes in global low - sulfur fuel oil import and export quantities by region [67]. 3.6 Futures Market Indicators and Internal - External Spreads - The prices of fuel oil in the Asia - Pacific region have fluctuated greatly this week, and the Zhoushan market has followed the same trend. The impact of geopolitical issues on the spot price of the outer market has gradually diminished, and the spread between domestic futures prices and overseas spot prices has gradually been repaired as the number of warehouse receipts decreases. In the short term, as the geopolitical events cool down and the number of warehouse receipts of FU and LU decreases, the spreads between FU, LU and the Singapore market are expected to increase [70]. - The report also provides data on spot and futures internal - external spreads, including 380 spot, 0.5% spot, FU main contract, FU continuous - one, LU continuous, LU continuous - one, and LU continuous - two against the Singapore market [71]. 3.7 FU and LU Position and Volume Changes The report shows the trading volume and open interest data of fuel oil main contract, low - sulfur fuel oil continuous, and their corresponding first - month contracts [84][91][95]. 3.8 FU and LU Warehouse Receipt Quantity Changes The report presents the quantity change data of FU and LU warehouse receipts [97][98].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The EIA weekly data shows that crude oil and oil products are mainly in a state of inventory accumulation. The single - week data is slightly bearish as the total inventory of crude oil and petroleum products has increased seasonally at a high level [2][4] 3. Summary According to Related Data Inventory Data - US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 405,000 barrels in the week ending December 19, 2025, compared with a decrease of 1.274 million barrels in the previous period [4][6] - US Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 707,000 barrels, compared with a decrease of 742,000 barrels in the previous period [6] - US strategic petroleum inventory increased by 800,000 barrels, compared with an increase of 249,000 barrels in the previous period [6] - US gasoline inventory increased by 2.862 million barrels, compared with an increase of 4.808 million barrels in the previous period [6] - US diesel inventory increased by 202,000 barrels, compared with an increase of 1.712 million barrels in the previous period [6] - US jet fuel inventory increased by 1.316 million barrels, compared with an increase of 1.007 million barrels in the previous period [6] - US fuel oil inventory increased by 853,000 barrels, compared with an increase of 450,000 barrels in the previous period [6] - The inventory of US crude oil and petroleum products (excluding SPR) increased by 2.139 million barrels [6] Production and Consumption Data - US crude oil production was estimated to be 13.825 million barrels per day, a slight decrease of 18,000 barrels per day from the previous period [4][6] - US refined oil apparent demand was 20.31 million barrels per day, compared with 20.573 million barrels per day in the previous period [6] - US gasoline apparent demand was 8.942 million barrels per day, compared with 9.078 million barrels per day in the previous period [6] - US diesel apparent demand was 4.156 million barrels per day, compared with 3.786 million barrels per day in the previous period [6] Trade and Processing Data - US crude oil imports were 6.086 million barrels per day, compared with 6.525 million barrels per day in the previous period [6] - US crude oil exports were 3.616 million barrels per day, compared with 4.664 million barrels per day in the previous period. The net export of crude oil decreased by 609,000 barrels per day [4][6] - US refinery crude oil processing volume was 16.776 million barrels per day, a decrease of 2.12 million barrels per day from the previous period [4][6] - The US refinery utilization rate fell slightly from the high point to 94.6%, compared with 94.8% in the previous period [4][6]

EIA周度数据:炼厂高开工,汽柴再累库 | 2025年12月18日 | 能源化工组 李云旭 | | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格: | 从业资格号 | | 发类可【2012】669号 投资咨询号 Z0021671 | F03141405 | 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点 和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会 因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场 有风险, 投资需谨慎。 美国12月12日当周商业原油库存减少127.4万桶,虽原油加工量增加12.8万桶/日,原油净出口 增加71.9万桶/日均利于加速去库,但实际去库幅度与上期数据相差不大。炼厂开工率继续攀升至 94.8%,为同期绝对高位,汽柴油库存延续累积,原油与石油产品总库存处同期高位。总体来看, 单周数据对价格指向有限,持续利空汽柴油裂解价差。 风险因素:关税政策调整,地缘局势,OPEC+产量政策。 | 单位:万桶 | 公布值 | 前值 | 单位:万桶/日 | 公布值 | 前值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美国商业原油库存变动 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, oil prices fluctuated and closed higher. The G7 and the EU considered banning Russian export shipping services instead of the oil price cap. Ukraine attacked a refinery and a small port of Rosneft. The CPC export was disrupted and Kazakhstan's daily oil production declined, leading to a rebound in absolute prices. Fundamentally, global oil inventories increased, Saudi Aramco lowered the January selling price of Arab Light crude oil to Asia, and US EIA crude oil and refined product inventories also rose. Recently, the US refinery operating rate recovered above 94%, and the crack spreads of gasoline and diesel in Europe and the US declined. In the short term, the diesel fundamentals are stronger. Attention should be paid to the seasonal regression of the gasoline - diesel price spread. The Brent price range in the fourth quarter is $55 - 65 per barrel, maintaining a high - short strategy, and it is advisable to wait and see in the short term as the valuation deviation is not high [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily News - The Trump administration is considering more tanker - related operations in relation to Venezuela and Iran [3] - Venezuelan President Maduro said Venezuela is ready to "knock out the teeth of the North American empire" if necessary. Trump confirmed that the US seized an oil tanker near Venezuela on December 10 [3][4] 3.2 Inventory - US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending December 5 was - 1.812 million barrels, expected - 2.31 million barrels, and the previous value was 0.574 million barrels [4] - US EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory for the week ending December 5 was 0.248 million barrels, and the previous value was 0.25 million barrels [4] - US EIA gasoline inventory for the week ending December 5 was 6.397 million barrels, expected 2.764 million barrels, and the previous value was 4.518 million barrels [4] - US EIA refined oil inventory for the week ending December 5 was 2.502 million barrels, expected 1.943 million barrels, and the previous value was 2.059 million barrels [4] - US EIA Cushing crude oil inventory in Oklahoma for the week ending December 5 was 0.308 million barrels, and the previous value was - 0.457 million barrels [4] - US EIA refinery utilization rate for the week ending December 5 was 94.5%, expected 94.4%, and the previous value was 94.1% [4] 3.3 Weekly View - Oil prices fluctuated and closed higher this week. The G7 and EU's consideration of banning Russian shipping services, Ukraine's attacks, and CPC export disruptions led to a price rebound. Fundamentally, inventories are rising, refinery operating rates are recovering, and crack spreads are falling. The short - term diesel fundamentals are stronger. The fourth - quarter Brent price range is $55 - 65 per barrel, with a high - short strategy and short - term waiting and seeing advised [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The refinery utilization rate in the US accelerated its recovery. Although the refinery utilization rate continued to rise from the bottom to 92.3%, the processing volume increased by 211,000 barrels per day, and the crude oil production decreased by 20,000 barrels per day to 1,381.4 million barrels per day, the net import of crude oil increased by 1.046 million barrels per day, leading to an accumulation of commercial crude oil inventories by 2.774 million barrels in the week ending November 21. After the refinery utilization rate rebounded, both gasoline and diesel inventories accumulated, the apparent demand for gasoline rebounded, and the apparent demand for diesel declined. The total inventory of crude oil and petroleum products increased slightly, but the single - week data has limited indication [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog US Crude Oil and Petroleum Product Inventory Data - **Commercial Crude Oil Inventory**: Increased by 2.774 million barrels, compared with a decrease of 3.426 million barrels in the previous period [4][6]. - **Cushing Crude Oil Inventory**: Decreased by 68,000 barrels, compared with a decrease of 698,000 barrels in the previous period [6]. - **Strategic Petroleum Inventory**: Increased by 498,000 barrels, compared with an increase of 533,000 barrels in the previous period [6]. - **Gasoline Inventory**: Increased by 2.513 million barrels, compared with an increase of 2.327 million barrels in the previous period [6]. - **Diesel Inventory**: Increased by 1.147 million barrels, compared with an increase of 171,000 barrels in the previous period [6]. - **Jet Fuel Inventory**: Increased by 370,000 barrels, compared with an increase of 146,000 barrels in the previous period [6]. - **Fuel Oil Inventory**: Decreased by 531,000 barrels, compared with an increase of 287,000 barrels in the previous period [6]. - **Total Inventory of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products (excluding SPR)**: Increased by 1.562 million barrels, compared with a decrease of 2.715 million barrels in the previous period [6]. US Crude Oil Production, Demand and Trade Data - **Crude Oil Production**: Decreased by 20,000 barrels per day to 1,381.4 million barrels per day [4][6]. - **Refinery Crude Oil Processing Volume**: Increased by 211,000 barrels per day to 16.443 million barrels per day [4][6]. - **Apparent Demand for Refined Oil Products**: Increased to 20.24 million barrels per day from 20.157 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. - **Apparent Demand for Gasoline**: Increased to 8.726 million barrels per day from 8.528 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. - **Apparent Demand for Diesel**: Decreased to 3.362 million barrels per day from 3.882 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. - **Crude Oil Import**: Increased to 6.436 million barrels per day from 5.95 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. - **Crude Oil Export**: Decreased to 3.598 million barrels per day from 4.158 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. - **Refinery Utilization Rate**: Increased to 92.3% from 90% in the previous period [4][6]

Group 1: Report Core View - The EIA weekly data shows that the refinery utilization rate rebounded, while the apparent demand for gasoline and diesel remained weak [2] - In the week ending October 17, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 961,000 barrels, with an increase in net crude oil imports of 656,000 barrels per day and an increase in crude oil processing volume of 600,000 barrels per day. Domestic focus is on production resilience and refinery utilization rate. The estimated single - week crude oil production decreased by 700 barrels per day to 13.629 million barrels per day, and the refinery utilization rate rose from 85.7% to 88.6%, likely due to the restart of refineries after early - month accidents [4] - Gasoline and diesel showed seasonal inventory declines, but their apparent demands were at low levels compared to the same period. The total inventory of crude oil and petroleum products declined from a high, and single - week data has limited indication [4] Group 2: Data Summary Inventory Data (in barrels) - US commercial crude oil inventory change: decreased by 961,000 barrels (previous value increased by 3.524 million barrels) [5] - US Cushing crude oil inventory change: decreased by 770,000 barrels (previous value decreased by 703,000 barrels) [5] - US strategic petroleum inventory change: increased by 819,000 barrels (previous value increased by 760,000 barrels) [5] - US gasoline inventory change: decreased by 2.147 million barrels (previous value decreased by 267,000 barrels) [5] - US diesel inventory change: decreased by 1.479 million barrels (previous value decreased by 4.529 million barrels) [5] - US jet fuel inventory change: decreased by 1.485 million barrels (previous value increased by 146,000 barrels) [5] - US fuel oil inventory change: increased by 505,000 barrels (previous value increased by 255,000 barrels) [5] - US crude oil and petroleum product inventory change (excluding SPR): decreased by 4.172 million barrels (previous value increased by 1.663 million barrels) [5] Production and Demand Data (in barrels per day) - US crude oil production: 13.629 million barrels per day (previous value 13.636 million barrels per day) [5] - US refined oil apparent demand: 20.014 million barrels per day (previous value 19.726 million barrels per day) [5] - US gasoline apparent demand: 8.454 million barrels per day (previous value 8.455 million barrels per day) [5] - US diesel apparent demand: 3.847 million barrels per day (previous value 4.233 million barrels per day) [5] - US crude oil imports: 5.918 million barrels per day (previous value 5.525 million barrels per day) [5] - US crude oil exports: 4.203 million barrels per day (previous value 4.466 million barrels per day) [5] - US refinery crude oil processing volume: 15.73 million barrels per day (previous value 15.13 million barrels per day) [5] - US refinery utilization rate: 88.6% (previous value 85.7%) [5]