甲信期货 ITIC Futures EIA周度数据:原油及油品累库为主 | 2025年12月30日 | 能源化工组 李云旭 | | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格: | 从业资格号 | | 技资合同业务员报： F03141405 F03141405 E监许可【2012】669号 投资咨询号 Z0021671 | | 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点 和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会 因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场 有风险,投资需谨慎。 美国12月19日当周商业原油库存增加40.5万桶,周度产量预估小幅下降1.8万桶/日,原油净出 口减少60.9万桶/日,炼厂开工率自高点小幅回落至94.6%,炼厂加工量减少21.2万桶/日。由于炼 厂开工率仍处相对高位,汽油、柴油、航煤、燃料油库存均延续累积,原油与石油产品总库存高位 逆季节性上探,单周数据略显利空。 风险因素:关税政策调整,地缘局势,OPEC+产量政策。 | 单位:万桶 | 公布值 | 前值 | 单位:万桶/日 | 公布值 | 前值 | | --- | --- | --- | - ...

EIA周度数据:炼厂高开工,汽柴再累库 | 2025年12月18日 | 能源化工组 李云旭 | | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格: | 从业资格号 | | 发类可【2012】669号 投资咨询号 Z0021671 | F03141405 | 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点 和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会 因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场 有风险, 投资需谨慎。 美国12月12日当周商业原油库存减少127.4万桶,虽原油加工量增加12.8万桶/日,原油净出口 增加71.9万桶/日均利于加速去库,但实际去库幅度与上期数据相差不大。炼厂开工率继续攀升至 94.8%,为同期绝对高位,汽柴油库存延续累积,原油与石油产品总库存处同期高位。总体来看, 单周数据对价格指向有限,持续利空汽柴油裂解价差。 风险因素:关税政策调整,地缘局势,OPEC+产量政策。 | 单位:万桶 | 公布值 | 前值 | 单位:万桶/日 | 公布值 | 前值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美国商业原油库存变动 ...

原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/11 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2025/12/04 | 59.67 | 63.26 | 63.89 | 0.56 | 0.40 | -3.59 | 0.04 | 182.71 | 13.48 | 230.37 | 33.50 | | 2025/12/05 | 60.08 | 63.75 | 64.26 | 0.41 | 0.36 | -3.67 | 0.05 | 183.41 | 13.28 | 236.29 | 35.49 | | 2025/12/ ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The refinery utilization rate in the US accelerated its recovery. Although the refinery utilization rate continued to rise from the bottom to 92.3%, the processing volume increased by 211,000 barrels per day, and the crude oil production decreased by 20,000 barrels per day to 1,381.4 million barrels per day, the net import of crude oil increased by 1.046 million barrels per day, leading to an accumulation of commercial crude oil inventories by 2.774 million barrels in the week ending November 21. After the refinery utilization rate rebounded, both gasoline and diesel inventories accumulated, the apparent demand for gasoline rebounded, and the apparent demand for diesel declined. The total inventory of crude oil and petroleum products increased slightly, but the single - week data has limited indication [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog US Crude Oil and Petroleum Product Inventory Data - **Commercial Crude Oil Inventory**: Increased by 2.774 million barrels, compared with a decrease of 3.426 million barrels in the previous period [4][6]. - **Cushing Crude Oil Inventory**: Decreased by 68,000 barrels, compared with a decrease of 698,000 barrels in the previous period [6]. - **Strategic Petroleum Inventory**: Increased by 498,000 barrels, compared with an increase of 533,000 barrels in the previous period [6]. - **Gasoline Inventory**: Increased by 2.513 million barrels, compared with an increase of 2.327 million barrels in the previous period [6]. - **Diesel Inventory**: Increased by 1.147 million barrels, compared with an increase of 171,000 barrels in the previous period [6]. - **Jet Fuel Inventory**: Increased by 370,000 barrels, compared with an increase of 146,000 barrels in the previous period [6]. - **Fuel Oil Inventory**: Decreased by 531,000 barrels, compared with an increase of 287,000 barrels in the previous period [6]. - **Total Inventory of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products (excluding SPR)**: Increased by 1.562 million barrels, compared with a decrease of 2.715 million barrels in the previous period [6]. US Crude Oil Production, Demand and Trade Data - **Crude Oil Production**: Decreased by 20,000 barrels per day to 1,381.4 million barrels per day [4][6]. - **Refinery Crude Oil Processing Volume**: Increased by 211,000 barrels per day to 16.443 million barrels per day [4][6]. - **Apparent Demand for Refined Oil Products**: Increased to 20.24 million barrels per day from 20.157 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. - **Apparent Demand for Gasoline**: Increased to 8.726 million barrels per day from 8.528 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. - **Apparent Demand for Diesel**: Decreased to 3.362 million barrels per day from 3.882 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. - **Crude Oil Import**: Increased to 6.436 million barrels per day from 5.95 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. - **Crude Oil Export**: Decreased to 3.598 million barrels per day from 4.158 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. - **Refinery Utilization Rate**: Increased to 92.3% from 90% in the previous period [4][6]

Group 1: Report Core View - The EIA weekly data shows that the refinery utilization rate rebounded, while the apparent demand for gasoline and diesel remained weak [2] - In the week ending October 17, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 961,000 barrels, with an increase in net crude oil imports of 656,000 barrels per day and an increase in crude oil processing volume of 600,000 barrels per day. Domestic focus is on production resilience and refinery utilization rate. The estimated single - week crude oil production decreased by 700 barrels per day to 13.629 million barrels per day, and the refinery utilization rate rose from 85.7% to 88.6%, likely due to the restart of refineries after early - month accidents [4] - Gasoline and diesel showed seasonal inventory declines, but their apparent demands were at low levels compared to the same period. The total inventory of crude oil and petroleum products declined from a high, and single - week data has limited indication [4] Group 2: Data Summary Inventory Data (in barrels) - US commercial crude oil inventory change: decreased by 961,000 barrels (previous value increased by 3.524 million barrels) [5] - US Cushing crude oil inventory change: decreased by 770,000 barrels (previous value decreased by 703,000 barrels) [5] - US strategic petroleum inventory change: increased by 819,000 barrels (previous value increased by 760,000 barrels) [5] - US gasoline inventory change: decreased by 2.147 million barrels (previous value decreased by 267,000 barrels) [5] - US diesel inventory change: decreased by 1.479 million barrels (previous value decreased by 4.529 million barrels) [5] - US jet fuel inventory change: decreased by 1.485 million barrels (previous value increased by 146,000 barrels) [5] - US fuel oil inventory change: increased by 505,000 barrels (previous value increased by 255,000 barrels) [5] - US crude oil and petroleum product inventory change (excluding SPR): decreased by 4.172 million barrels (previous value increased by 1.663 million barrels) [5] Production and Demand Data (in barrels per day) - US crude oil production: 13.629 million barrels per day (previous value 13.636 million barrels per day) [5] - US refined oil apparent demand: 20.014 million barrels per day (previous value 19.726 million barrels per day) [5] - US gasoline apparent demand: 8.454 million barrels per day (previous value 8.455 million barrels per day) [5] - US diesel apparent demand: 3.847 million barrels per day (previous value 4.233 million barrels per day) [5] - US crude oil imports: 5.918 million barrels per day (previous value 5.525 million barrels per day) [5] - US crude oil exports: 4.203 million barrels per day (previous value 4.466 million barrels per day) [5] - US refinery crude oil processing volume: 15.73 million barrels per day (previous value 15.13 million barrels per day) [5] - US refinery utilization rate: 88.6% (previous value 85.7%) [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The EIA weekly data shows that the refinery utilization rate rebounded, while the apparent demand for gasoline and diesel remained weak. The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 961,000 barrels in the week ending October 17, 2025, with an increase in net imports and crude oil processing volume. The refinery utilization rate rose from 85.7% to 88.6%, likely due to the restart of refineries after early - month accidents. Gasoline and diesel showed seasonal inventory declines, but their apparent demands were at low levels for the same period, and the total inventory of crude oil and petroleum products decreased from a high level [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Data Crude Oil - **Inventory**: The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 961,000 barrels, and the Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 770,000 barrels. The strategic petroleum inventory increased by 819,000 barrels [4][5]. - **Production**: The estimated single - week U.S. crude oil production decreased by 7,000 barrels per day to 13.629 million barrels per day [4]. - **Imports and Exports**: Crude oil net imports increased by 656,000 barrels per day. Imports were 5.918 million barrels per day, and exports were 4.203 million barrels per day [4][5]. Petroleum Products - **Inventory**: Gasoline inventory decreased by 2.147 million barrels, diesel inventory decreased by 1.479 million barrels, jet fuel inventory decreased by 1.485 million barrels, and fuel oil inventory increased by 505,000 barrels. The total inventory of crude oil and petroleum products (excluding SPR) decreased by 4.172 million barrels [5]. - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand for refined oil products was 20.014 million barrels per day, with gasoline at 8.454 million barrels per day and diesel at 3.847 million barrels per day. Both gasoline and diesel apparent demands were at low levels for the same period [4][5]. Refinery - **Processing Volume**: The U.S. refinery crude oil processing volume increased by 600,000 barrels per day to 15.73 million barrels per day [4]. - **Utilization Rate**: The refinery utilization rate rebounded from 85.7% to 88.6%, likely due to the restart of refineries after accidental shutdowns at the beginning of the month [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil continued to decline and reached the lowest point of the year. For high - sulfur fuel oil, the impact of the decline in Russian exports still exists, but most refineries plan to end maintenance at the end of October. If the operating rate of Russian refineries recovers, the high - sulfur market may face negative factors. Meanwhile, the crude oil import quotas of domestic local refineries are gradually being consumed, and some small and medium - sized refineries may increase fuel oil imports in the future, which needs continuous attention. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the external market has shown little fluctuation recently. Although the number of domestic LU warehouse receipts is gradually decreasing, the opening of the internal - external price difference will continue to attract foreign spot goods for delivery, which will significantly suppress the near - month valuation, and the monthly spread will remain weak in the near future [4]. - Valuation: FU is valued at 2650 - 2800, and LU is valued at 3050 - 3350 [4]. - Strategies: 1) Unilateral: FU and LU have entered a low - price range, and the short - term downward space is relatively limited. 2) Inter - period: There is a probability that the LU monthly spread will continue to decline. 3) Inter - variety: The FU crack spread fluctuates at a high level; the LU - FU price difference may still shrink slightly in the short term [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Supply - Multiple charts show the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (including overall, independent, and major refineries), the maintenance volume of global CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units, as well as the production and commercial volume of domestic refinery fuel oil over different years [6][10][20]. Demand - Charts present the demand data of fuel oil at home and abroad, including the actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China, the sales volume of fuel oil in Singapore, and the apparent consumption of fuel oil in China over different years [23]. Inventory - Charts show the global fuel oil spot inventory, including the heavy oil inventory in Singapore, the fuel oil inventory in European ARA, the heavy distillate inventory in Fujairah, and the residual fuel oil inventory in the US over different years [26][28][29]. Price and Spread - **Regional Spot FOB Prices**: Include the FOB prices of fuel oil in the Asia - Pacific region (such as in Singapore and Fujairah), the European region (such as in Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean), and the US region (such as in the US Gulf and New York Harbor) over different years [34][36][43]. - **Paper and Derivative Prices**: Show the prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur swaps in Northwest Europe and Singapore, as well as the prices of fuel oil futures contracts such as FU and LU over different years [46][47]. - **Fuel Oil Spot Spread**: Include the high - low sulfur spread and viscosity spread in Singapore [56][57]. - **Global Fuel Oil Crack Spread**: Present the crack spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe [60][62]. - **Global Fuel Oil Paper Monthly Spread**: Show the monthly spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe [64]. Import and Export - **Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Charts show the import and export quantities of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China over different years [69][71]. - **Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Present the weekly changes in the import and export quantities of global high - sulfur fuel oil in different regions [73]. - **Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Show the weekly changes in the import and export quantities of global low - sulfur fuel oil in different regions [75]. Futures Market Indicators and Internal - External Price Difference - **Internal - External Price Difference in the Spot Market**: Include the internal - external price differences of 380 - grade and 0.5% fuel oil, as well as the internal - external price differences between LU and Singapore [82][83][85]. - **Internal - External Price Difference in the Futures Market**: Include the internal - external price differences between FU and Singapore (such as FU main contract, FU continuous contract 1) and between LU and Singapore (such as LU continuous contract, LU continuous contract 1, LU continuous contract 2) [86][87]. - **Changes in the Positions and Trading Volumes of FU and LU**: Show the trading volumes and positions of fuel oil main contract, continuous contract 1, low - sulfur fuel oil continuous contract, and continuous contract 1 over different years [90][92][95]. - **Changes in the Warehouse Receipt Quantities of FU and LU**: Present the changes in the warehouse receipt quantities of fu and lu over different years [102][103].

Group 1: Core View - The weekly EIA data shows that refinery operations declined, and the total inventory pressure remains high. The increase in commercial crude oil inventory, net crude oil exports, and the decrease in crude oil processing volume all had a significant impact on inventory. The domestic focus is on production resilience and the decline in refinery operating rates. The single - week crude oil production estimate increased by 0.7 million barrels per day to 13.636 million barrels per day, and the refinery operating rate dropped from 92.4% to 85.7%, likely due to seasonal maintenance and a refinery accident in California. Gasoline and diesel showed seasonal inventory declines, while the total inventory of crude oil and petroleum products continued to rise, with the single - week data being bearish [2][4]. Group 2: Data Summary Inventory Data - US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 3.524 million barrels, and the previous value was an increase of 3.715 million barrels [4][5]. - US Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 0.703 million barrels, and the previous value was a decrease of 0.763 million barrels [5]. - US strategic petroleum inventory increased by 0.76 million barrels, and the previous value was an increase of 0.285 million barrels [5]. - US gasoline inventory decreased by 0.267 million barrels, and the previous value was a decrease of 1.601 million barrels [5]. - US diesel inventory decreased by 4.529 million barrels, and the previous value was a decrease of 2.018 million barrels [5]. - US jet fuel inventory increased by 0.146 million barrels, and the previous value was a decrease of 0.071 million barrels [5]. - US fuel oil inventory increased by 0.255 million barrels, and the previous value was an increase of 0.541 million barrels [5]. - The inventory change of US crude oil and petroleum products (excluding SPR) increased by 1.663 million barrels, and the previous value was a decrease of 1.23 million barrels [5]. Production and Demand Data - US crude oil production was 13.636 million barrels per day, and the previous value was 13.629 million barrels per day [5]. - US refined oil apparent demand was 19.726 million barrels per day, and the previous value was 21.99 million barrels per day [5]. - US gasoline apparent demand was 8.455 million barrels per day, and the previous value was 8.919 million barrels per day [5]. - US diesel apparent demand was 4.233 million barrels per day, and the previous value was 4.346 million barrels per day [5]. Trade and Processing Data - US crude oil imports were 5.525 million barrels per day, and the previous value was 6.403 million barrels per day [5]. - US crude oil exports were 4.466 million barrels per day, and the previous value was 3.59 million barrels per day [5]. - US refinery crude oil processing volume was 15.13 million barrels per day, and the previous value was 16.297 million barrels per day [5]. - US refinery operating rate was 85.7%, and the previous value was 92.4% [5].

Core Viewpoint - Oil futures are experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract reported at 433.6 yuan per barrel, a significant drop of 2.17% [1] News Summary - Egypt has raised gasoline prices, with 80-octane gasoline now at 17.75 Egyptian pounds per liter, 92-octane at 19.25 pounds, 95-octane at 21 pounds, and diesel at 17.5 pounds [2] - Indian refiners have purchased their first batch of Guyanese crude oil from ExxonMobil for delivery between December and January [2] - U.S. officials indicated productive discussions with India, which has reduced its oil imports from Russia by 50% [2] Institutional Perspectives - Dongwu Futures notes that oil prices are declining due to a potential breakthrough in Russia-Ukraine negotiations, with Trump indicating a summit with Putin to discuss ending the conflict. If Russian energy sanctions are lifted, it could significantly impact Western energy markets, particularly the currently tight diesel market. The latest EIA report showed a much larger-than-expected increase in U.S. crude oil inventories, with refinery utilization rates indicating deepening autumn maintenance. The firm maintains a bearish long-term outlook but acknowledges the possibility of a return of geopolitical risk premiums in the short term [3] - Yide Futures attributes the drop in oil prices to easing geopolitical tensions, with Trump planning a summit with Putin to discuss the end of the Russia-Ukraine war, which introduces uncertainty into global energy supply. The recent EIA inventory report revealed a substantial increase in U.S. crude oil inventories, primarily due to a significant decline in refinery utilization rates as they enter the autumn maintenance season. U.S. production has reached a record high of 13.636 million barrels per day. The potential cessation of Russian oil imports by India is expected to reshape oil flows and increase supply demand in other regions. Data shows a continued decline in monthly spreads, with mixed movements in crack spreads, and the market remains undervalued [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EIA report is a mixed bag. Real - time indicators are relatively positive, with inventories of crude oil and refined products all decreasing and the decline in refinery operating rate being limited. However, leading indicators are persistently weak, with terminal demand remaining poor. The lackluster performance of distillates during the peak season may speed up autumn maintenance, offsetting the positive impact of inventory data. Despite the short - term upward trend in oil prices after the report release, the upward potential of oil prices is limited due to weak forward - looking indicators [12] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Inventory Data - As of September 19, U.S. commercial crude oil inventory was 414.754 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 607,000 barrels, contrary to the expected increase of 235,000 barrels. Cushing inventory increased by 177,000 barrels, and strategic reserve inventory increased by 230,000 barrels. Gasoline inventory decreased by 1.081 million barrels, contrary to the expected increase of 200,000 barrels, and distillate inventory decreased by 1.685 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 500,000 barrels. The total inventory of the U.S. crude oil chain decreased by 244,000 barrels [2][3] Production, Import, and Processing Data - U.S. crude oil production increased by 19,000 barrels per day to 13.501 million barrels per day. Crude oil net imports increased by 1.596 million barrels per day to 2.011 million barrels per day. Crude oil processing volume increased by 52,000 barrels per day to 16.476 million barrels per day. The refinery operating rate decreased by 0.3% week - on - week to 93.0% [3] Terminal Demand Data - The four - week smoothed terminal apparent demand for U.S. crude oil decreased by 205,250 barrels per day to 20.46575 million barrels per day. The four - week smoothed apparent demand for gasoline decreased by 70,250 barrels per day to 8.8485 million barrels per day. The four - week smoothed apparent demand for distillates decreased by 100,750 barrels per day to 3.626 million barrels per day. The four - week smoothed apparent demand for jet fuel decreased by 57,500 barrels per day to 1.64525 million barrels per day. Terminal demand for refined products remains poor [3][8]