Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybean market is expected to remain strong, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [1]. - The corn market is strong but faces resistance. A low - buying strategy is advisable, and one can consider replenishing stocks or buying when there is a pullback [1]. - The egg market is expected to be stable and slightly stronger later, and a low - buying approach is recommended [2]. - The pig market is in a key game period between short - term price pressure and long - term capacity clearance. The near - term is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - Domestic soybean trading has fully recovered, farmers are reluctant to sell, and the price is rising. The market is expected to remain strong [1]. Corn - After the Spring Festival, the corn market is bullish, but there are obvious resistances. A low - buying strategy is recommended [1]. Egg - In February, the inventory of laying hens increased, with an aging structure. The supply is currently loose, but the market is expected to be stable and slightly stronger later [2]. Pig - In early February, the pig - grain ratio met the conditions for frozen meat storage. The market is currently oversupplied, but the government's storage policy may ease the contradiction. The near - term is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall trend of soybean prices is expected to continue an upward oscillation, with short - term adjustments possibly caused by the release of imported soybeans from storage [1]. - Corn prices are on a slow upward trend, and the recommended strategy is to go long at low prices and consider replenishing stocks or buying on dips [2]. - Egg prices are expected to be stable with a slight upward trend, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [3]. - The pig market is in a stage of short - term price pressure and long - term capacity clearance. Near - term prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom, and the follow - up policy regulation and the culling of sows from March to May will be decisive for the market trend [3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans - Domestic soybean spot prices have generally risen steadily, with tight supply of high - protein soybeans and post - holiday restocking demand from downstream, but purchases are mainly for rigid needs. The price low point has passed [1]. - The 39.5 - protein tower grain in the Heilongjiang main production area is priced around 2.08 - 2.2 yuan per catty, 40 - 41 protein tower grain is around 2.25 - 2.3 yuan per catty, and high - protein soybeans (such as 42 - protein and above) can reach 2.35 - 2.45 yuan per catty in some areas [1]. Corn - After the holiday, grain depot purchasing has resumed, and the purchase base prices have increased. For example, the base price of Hohhot Direct - affiliated Depot of China Grain Reserves Inner Mongolia Branch is 2340 yuan per ton, up 30 yuan per ton from before the holiday [2]. - Affected by post - holiday restocking demand and the resonance of the futures and spot markets, corn prices are rising slowly, but downstream enterprises are cautious in purchasing due to poor profit margins. The sharp rise in crude oil is beneficial to ethanol enterprises and indirectly drives up corn prices [2]. Eggs - Based on the previous chick sales, the supply of newly - opened laying hens from February to March may decrease, and the inventory of laying hens in production is expected to decline slightly from the high level, alleviating the supply pressure [3]. - From January to June 2026, the monthly average inventory of laying hens in production nationwide is 1.134 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.02 billion (0.18%) compared with 2025, and an increase of 0.078 billion (7.39%) compared with the average of the previous six years [3]. Pigs - In early February, the pig - grain ratio in China was below 5:1 for three consecutive weeks, meeting the conditions for frozen meat procurement. After the Spring Festival, the market is in a state of strong supply and weak demand, and pig prices are at a seasonal low [3]. - As of the end of December 2025, the national inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million (101.6% of the normal level), and it slightly decreased to 39.58 million in January 2026, still above the regulatory red line. The inventory of breeding sows indicates large pressure on pig production in the first half of 2026 [3][4]. - Huachuwang announced the procurement of 10,000 tons of pork tomorrow, indicating an oversupply in the spot market. It is expected that subsequent procurements will continue to ease the oversupply pressure [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The low point of soybean prices has passed, and the subsequent trend will be an oscillating upward movement [1]. - Corn should be considered from a low - buying perspective, and if there is a pull - back adjustment, it is advisable to actively replenish stocks or buy [2]. - Eggs are expected to be stable with a slight upward trend later, and a low - buying approach is recommended [2]. - The contradiction of oversupply in the pig market may be alleviated, and the decline in pig prices is expected to slow down and reach the bottom. However, there is still significant pressure on pig slaughter in the first half of 2026 [3]. - The industry is in a critical game period between short - term price pressure and long - term capacity clearance. The near - term is expected to oscillate at the bottom [4]. Summary by Related Products Soybean - The domestic soybean spot market price shows a stable - to - strong trend. Northeast产区 traders' selling prices have increased after the Spring Festival, but new transactions are limited. Traders in Shandong, Jiangsu, Anhui, and Henan indicate slow local bean transactions, and prices are mostly stable. The selling price of Northeast beans in the sales area has increased following the production area, but the increase is smaller [1]. Corn - Northeast deep - processing enterprises have gradually resumed full - scale purchases. Driven by the futures market, the price of deep - processing acquisitions has risen significantly compared to before the Spring Festival. The fuel ethanol enterprise acquisition price has increased by 20 - 30 yuan/ton, and the dry - grain acquisition price in Songyuan is 2230 yuan/ton (+50 yuan). The port in Jinzhou is gradually resuming operations, and the shipping demand is still low, with full recovery expected after the Lantern Festival [1]. - The sharp rise in crude oil is beneficial to ethanol enterprises, indirectly driving up the price of corn. A low - buying strategy is recommended [2]. Eggs - Based on the previous chicken - chick sales volume, the supply of newly - laid hens from February to March may decrease, and the inventory of laying hens is expected to slightly decline from the high level. The supply pressure of eggs is expected to be alleviated to some extent. The average monthly inventory of laying hens from January to June 2026 is 1.134 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.02 billion (0.18%) compared to 2025, and an increase of 0.078 billion (7.39%) compared to the average of the previous six years [2]. Pigs - In early February, the domestic pig - to - grain ratio was below 5:1 for three consecutive weeks, meeting the conditions for frozen - meat purchase and storage. After the Spring Festival, the market demand is weak, and the supply is relatively normal, resulting in a situation of oversupply. With the implementation of the purchase - and - storage policy, the contradiction of oversupply may be alleviated. As of the end of December 2025, the national inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million, 101.6% of the normal reserve. In January 2026, it slightly decreased to 39.58 million, still above the regulatory red line. There is still significant pressure on pig slaughter in the first half of 2026 [3].

Group 1 - The average price of external three-yuan pigs in China on June 13 was 14.02 yuan/kg, a week-on-week decrease of 0.21%. The average price of 15 kg piglets was 32.89 yuan/kg, down 4.69% week-on-week [1] - The average weight of market pigs this week was 128.82 kg, a decrease of 0.35 kg week-on-week. The national frozen product storage capacity rate was 13.89%, an increase of 0.09 percentage points [1] - After a short-term decline in pig prices, the breeding sector's resistance to price drops has increased, leading to a gradual easing of large-scale slaughtering. However, terminal demand remains weak due to high temperatures, resulting in low slaughter volumes and insufficient terminal consumption [1] Group 2 - The future pig prices are expected to return to the cyclical logic based on the number of breeding sows, influenced by the clearance of backlog fat pigs and reduced secondary fattening [1] - Policy factors are crucial in regulating pig production capacity and influencing industry development trends, with a focus on the potential impact of industrial policies on industry behavior [1] - Investors without stock accounts may consider the Guotai Zhongzheng Livestock Breeding ETF Link A (012724) and Guotai Zhongzheng Livestock Breeding ETF Link C (012725) [1]

Group 1: Pig Prices - The average price of external three yuan pigs in China decreased to 14.02 yuan/kg, a week-on-week decline of 0.21% [3] - The average price of 15 kg piglets fell to 32.89 yuan/kg, down 4.69% week-on-week [3] - The average weight of market pigs at slaughter was 128.82 kg, a decrease of 0.35 kg week-on-week, while the national frozen meat storage rate increased to 13.89%, up 0.09 percentage points [3] Group 2: Chicken Prices - The price of white feather broiler chickens was 7.27 yuan/kg, down 0.68% week-on-week, and the price of chicks was 2.74 yuan/chick, down 3.52% week-on-week [4] - Slaughter enterprises are experiencing slow sales of frozen chicken products, leading to increased inventory and reduced slaughter rates [4] - The current season is characterized by low profits for farmers, which is suppressing chick prices [4] Group 3: Grain Prices - The average spot price of corn was 2405.69 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.75% week-on-week, while soybean meal averaged 2968 yuan/ton, up 0.94% week-on-week [5] - The average price of wheat decreased to 2430.39 yuan/ton, down 0.13% week-on-week [5] - The increase in corn prices is attributed to reduced circulation due to wheat harvesting and traders holding onto their stocks [5] Group 4: Natural Rubber Prices - The domestic natural rubber futures price rose to 13815 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.88% [6] - Supply is tightening due to seasonal harvesting and adverse weather conditions affecting production [6] - Demand from tire manufacturers is recovering, leading to an increase in production capacity utilization [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the domestic supply of live pigs and pork is relatively abundant, and pig prices will maintain a weak and volatile pattern. Short - term frozen meat purchases can help stabilize market confidence and curb the decline of pig prices. Measures such as regulating sow production capacity, banning secondary fattening speculation, and restricting slaughter weight mostly take a long time to show effects, especially regulating sow production capacity which may take about a year [4][48]. - Current policy regulation is a combination of "short - term emergency + long - term root - solving". The emergency measures are purchases and weight - limit orders to hedge the current excess pressure; the root - solving measures are production - limit orders and banning secondary fattening to promote production capacity clearance. The key to success lies in the implementation strength of leading enterprises and the speed of production capacity reduction. If the policies are implemented effectively, a turning point may come at the end of the third quarter [4][48]. - From June to August, the policy combination (especially purchases + weight - limit) may prevent a sharp decline in pig prices, but it is difficult to see a significant increase due to the off - season of consumption and abundant supply. If overweight pigs are sold in a concentrated manner, there is still a risk of losses. In the long - term, if the production - limit order is strictly enforced, the supply pressure in 2025 will ease. From the end of the third quarter, the supply will gradually tighten, and pig prices are expected to bottom out and rebound from the middle and late third quarter to the fourth quarter [4][48]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Current Core Issues in the Live Pig Market 1.1 Overcapacity - As of the end of April, the national sow inventory was still 3.6% higher than the national regulatory benchmark level, and the process of reducing production capacity was slow. The root cause of overcapacity was the ineffective control of early - stage capacity expansion by leading enterprises and speculative replenishment by small and medium - sized farmers. High piglet prices in the first half of the year also delayed the culling of sows. Seasonal weakness in demand exacerbated the supply - demand contradiction [8]. 1.2 Intensified Supply Pressure - As of early June, the slaughter weight of domestic live pigs soared to over 140 kg, indicating a strong willingness to sell large - weight pigs. The supply of pork was abundant, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening was low. Macro - control policies led to an oversupply of pork. Secondary fattening was banned in some provinces, and leading enterprises stopped selling fattening pigs for secondary fattening [18]. 1.3 Persistently Low Pig Prices - As of early June, the average domestic live pig slaughter price had fallen below 14 yuan/kg, hitting a new low for the same period in the past five years. Only leading enterprises were profitable in the self - breeding and self - fattening model, while small and medium - sized farmers and the model of purchasing piglets for fattening generally suffered losses [25]. 2. Policy Regulation Measures 2.1 Limiting Capacity Expansion - Current policies focus on source control, process supervision, and demand adjustment. Leading enterprises are required to suspend expanding sow production capacity, and the sow inventory should be controlled to a reasonable level. Inefficient sow farms will be forced to exit, and small and medium - sized farmers who actively cull sows will be subsidized. This will directly reduce the future supply of live pigs, but there is a lag in the effect of capacity reduction [33]. 2.2 Controlling Slaughter Weight - A maximum slaughter weight standard of 120 kg is set nationwide. Slaughterhouses and local animal husbandry supervision departments are responsible for joint supervision, and slaughterhouses are required to reject overweight pigs. Resource occupation fees will be levied in pilot provinces [35]. 2.3 Banning Secondary Fattening - The circulation of overweight pigs is cut off by banning secondary fattening. Leading enterprises are prohibited from selling fattening pigs for secondary fattening, and the business licenses of secondary fattening farms in some provinces are revoked. Illegal reselling is strictly investigated to accelerate the slaughter of large - weight pigs [36]. 2.4 Initiating Frozen Pork Purchases - Since the second quarter, the domestic pig - grain ratio has continued to decline and has fallen back to the second - level warning range. On June 11, the first round of frozen meat purchase and bidding work was launched, with a purchase volume of 10,000 tons [37]. 3. Policy Effect Evaluation and Impact 3.1 Short - Term Policy Effects - Secondary fattening has been effectively curbed. On June 11, 10,000 tons of frozen pork were purchased, and pig prices stopped falling and stabilized in the short term. However, the slaughter weight is still high, and the progress of capacity reduction is slow. The core contradiction of 140 - kg pig sales and the off - season of consumption has not been resolved [42][43]. 3.2 Analysis of Policy Tool Limitations - The policy of suspending new sows only stops the expansion of leading enterprises, but the existing sows are not culled. The weight - limit order has loopholes in implementation, and it takes 1 - 2 months to digest existing 140 - kg pigs. Banning secondary fattening may lead to the concentrated early slaughter of pressure - barred pigs. Frozen meat purchases only account for 0.2% of monthly consumption, which is a drop in the bucket [44]. 4. Summary - In the short term, pig prices will maintain a weak and volatile pattern. The current policy is a combination of short - term emergency and long - term root - solving. From June to August, the policy combination may prevent a sharp decline in pig prices but is difficult to lead to a significant increase. In the long - term, if the production - limit order is strictly enforced, the supply pressure will ease, and pig prices are expected to bottom out and rebound from the middle and late third quarter to the fourth quarter [48].