2025年，邻二甲苯行业迎来盈利能力的根本性修复与重构，全年利润呈现鲜明的"前高后低"走势，摆脱 连续亏损局面。相较于2024年仅为89元(吨价，下同)的微薄平均利润，2025年邻二甲苯行业利润水平升 至296元。从二季度超越千元的历史性高点，到年末再度滑入亏损的阴影……邻二甲苯行业利润波动原 因都指向上游成本红利、出口引擎拉动与产能增长。 纵观2025年全年，邻二甲苯行业利润修复的本质是"成本坍塌"与"出口红利"共同作用下的阶段性成果， 具有一定的外部性和偶然性。而利润的收缩与转亏，反映出在产能扩张大周期下，邻二甲苯行业最终仍 将回归由自身供需基本面定价的残酷现实。出口市场扮演了至关重要的"缓冲阀"角色，延缓了供过于求 的现象，但未能改变国内供需结构转向宽松的长期趋势。展望未来，邻二甲苯行业利润能否维持正值区 间，将不再仅仅取决于一时的成本波动或出口机遇，更考验企业在供过于求常态下，如何通过技术升 级、成本控制与全球市场深度布局来构建持续的竞争力。 然而，邻二甲苯行业高利润局面难以持续。进入年中，尤其是6月之后，行业利润从高位逐步回落，这 一拐点的出现源于两股关键力量的叠加。首先是成本红利的消退，异构二甲苯 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese PS industry has experienced a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 13% since 2019, driven by profit motives, downstream demand growth, and integrated project extensions, but is now facing an oversupply situation due to demand growth lagging behind supply growth [1][3][5] - The industry is expected to continue expanding, with total PS capacity projected to exceed 8 million tons by the end of 2025 [1] Production Capacity and Utilization - From 2020 to 2024, domestic PS capacity is steadily increasing, with a CAGR of 13.36% since 2019, although the pace of new project launches is slowing down due to mismatched supply and demand growth [1][3] - The annual capacity utilization rate for the PS industry is projected to decline to 63.87% in 2024 and below 60% by the end of 2025 [5] Profitability Trends - The profitability of the PS industry has fluctuated, with a peak in 2020 due to export benefits, where GPPS and HIPS gross profit margins reached 1722 CNY/ton and 3200 CNY/ton respectively [3] - Since 2021, the industry has faced declining profitability, with average losses for GPPS and HIPS due to supply-demand imbalances, although a slight recovery is expected in 2024-2025 [3][5] Import and Export Dynamics - The import dependency of the Chinese PS market has decreased, with the import volume declining to a low of 10.65% as domestic production has increased [7] - The export volume of Chinese PS has seen a compound growth rate of 40.52% since 2019, with exports expected to reach 215,900 tons in 2024, nearly six times the volume in 2020 [7][9] Regional Export Insights - Southeast Asia remains the primary export market for Chinese PS, with Vietnam consistently accounting for 21-28% of exports from 2020 to 2025 [9] - The share of exports to Europe has increased from 4% in 2021 to 22% in 2024, driven by high costs in Europe and a demand gap [10] Future Outlook - The competition in the PS market is expected to intensify, leading to further price advantages and a stable increase in export proportions, particularly for ordinary grades of PS [12][14] - The supply of high-end PS resources remains limited, with the majority of future demand likely to be met domestically rather than through exports [14]