出口转移

Search documents
台湾出口重心变化,对美出口额接近大陆
日经中文网· 2025-07-10 07:10
Core Viewpoint - Taiwan's export destination is shifting towards the United States, with the gap between exports to the US and exports to mainland China narrowing significantly from 3-4 times to just 0.1 percentage points [1][3]. Group 1: Export Growth - Taiwan's total export value from January to June increased by 25.9% year-on-year, reaching $283.2 billion [2]. - Exports to the US during the same period surged by 51.4%, amounting to $78.9 billion, accounting for 27.9% of total exports [1][2]. - In June alone, exports to the US saw a remarkable year-on-year growth of 90.9%, reaching $17.2 billion [3]. Group 2: Comparison with Mainland China - Exports to mainland China (including Hong Kong) grew by 12.7% year-on-year, totaling $79.1 billion [2]. - Despite the growth, the performance of certain sectors, such as plastics and rubber products, remained weak [2]. - The share of exports to the US in Taiwan's total exports has exceeded that to mainland China for two consecutive months, with the US accounting for 32.4% and mainland China for 27.3% [3]. Group 3: Structural Changes - Historically, mainland China was Taiwan's largest export destination, with exports to China accounting for around 40% of Taiwan's total exports from 2004 to 2022 [3]. - The current shift is attributed to high-tech companies relocating some production bases back to Taiwan and increasing direct exports to the US [3].
2025年3月外贸数据点评:3月出口:从已知看未知
Minsheng Securities· 2025-04-14 09:19
Export Data Overview - In March 2025, China's exports increased by 12.4% year-on-year, significantly exceeding the expected 3.5% and reversing the previous month's decline of -3%[3] - Imports in March 2025 decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, aligning with expectations and contrasting with a 1.5% increase in the previous month[3] Factors Influencing Export Performance - The primary driver for the March export surge was seasonal effects, as early Spring and a low base from the previous year contributed to higher year-on-year figures[3] - "Rush exports" occurred ahead of tariff increases, with significant contributions from ASEAN, Latin America, and Africa, collectively boosting exports by 4.8 percentage points[3] Future Export Trends - Export growth is expected to decline in Q2 2025, potentially falling between -5% to -10% year-on-year due to the impact of tariff escalations and weakening external demand[4] - Recent logistics data indicates a significant drop in port cargo volumes, suggesting a slowdown in export activity[4] Potential Upside Factors - Signals of tariff exemptions may provide some relief, with an estimated $100 billion worth of products eligible for exemptions, potentially easing export pressures[5] - Continued "rush exports" and shifts in trade patterns towards ASEAN and other regions may sustain some export momentum[5] Risks and Policy Responses - The government is likely to implement policies aimed at mitigating employment risks due to external shocks, focusing on high-tech manufacturing sectors with significant export exposure to the U.S.[7] - If tariffs are enforced as planned, the direct impact on foreign trade revenues could exceed 1.2 trillion yuan for affected industries[7]