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国际金融市场早知道:7月18日
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-18 00:34
Group 1 - The U.S. Senate passed a bill to cut $9 billion in foreign aid and public broadcasting funding, escalating bipartisan conflicts [1] - The U.S. House of Representatives approved the "Genius Act," aimed at significant legislative reform for cryptocurrency regulation, which will be submitted to President Trump for signing [1] - The House also passed the "Clarity Act," which seeks to establish a broader regulatory framework for digital assets, now awaiting Senate review [1] Group 2 - President Trump is preparing to open cryptocurrency, gold, and private equity investments to the $9 trillion U.S. retirement market, potentially transforming savings management for Americans [2] - An executive order is expected to be signed soon, allowing alternative investments in 401k plans, including digital assets and private equity funds [2] - The Federal Reserve Chairman emphasized the importance of transparency regarding the renovation of the Federal Reserve building, indicating ongoing reviews since 2017 [2] Group 3 - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. decreased by 7,000 to 221,000, marking the lowest level since mid-April and the fifth consecutive week of decline [3] - U.S. retail sales in June increased by 0.6%, surpassing market expectations of 0.1%, with a rebound across 10 out of 13 retail categories, primarily driven by automotive sales [3] - The U.S. housing market index for July was reported at 33, slightly above June's 32, aligning with market expectations [3] Group 4 - Japan's automobile exports to the U.S. fell by 26.7% year-on-year in June, contributing to an 11.4% decline in total exports to the U.S. for the month [4] Group 5 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 229.71 points to 44,484.49, a gain of 0.52%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also saw increases of 0.54% and 0.75%, respectively [6] - COMEX gold futures decreased by 0.41% to $3,345.40 per ounce, while silver futures increased by 0.83% to $38.44 per ounce [6] - Crude oil prices rose, with light crude futures up by $1.16 to $67.54 per barrel, reflecting a 1.75% increase [6]
对话野村全球宏观研究主管苏博文:特朗普加征关税不只为减少贸易逆差,美国经济滞胀压力将很快显现
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-07-11 07:22
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around President Trump's new round of tariffs and the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill, which raises concerns about inflation, economic direction, and global trade dynamics [1][2][10] - Trump's plan to impose a 15% or 20% uniform tariff on nearly all trade partners is expected to create significant uncertainty in the global economy [2][8] - The "Big and Beautiful" bill is projected to increase the U.S. budget deficit by over $3 trillion in the next decade, averaging an increase of $340 billion per year [10][11] Group 2 - The recent tariff increases are not solely aimed at reducing trade deficits but also involve broader geopolitical considerations, as seen in the case of Brazil where a 50% tariff is imposed despite a trade surplus [3][4][5] - The tariffs are primarily directed at smaller emerging market economies, many of which do not have significant trade surpluses with the U.S. [5] - The potential for retaliatory tariffs from other countries could harm U.S. export businesses, leading to a decline in exports and further impacting economic growth and employment [8][9] Group 3 - The inflationary pressures in the U.S. are expected to rise, with the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) predicted to increase from 2.8% to 3.3% by mid-2025 [9] - The U.S. GDP growth rate is forecasted to slow to 1.3% this year, influenced by reduced consumer spending due to inflation [9][10] - The Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts until December, with anticipated cuts being smaller than market expectations due to ongoing inflation concerns [10][12]
关税升级刺激避险!黄金反弹能否延续?订单流给出什么进场信号?顺姐正在实时分析中,点击观看
news flash· 2025-07-11 07:13
Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of tariff escalations on gold prices, highlighting a rebound in gold as a safe-haven asset due to increased market uncertainty [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Tariff upgrades are stimulating demand for gold as a hedge against economic instability [1] - The article suggests that the current order flow analysis may provide entry signals for investors looking to capitalize on gold's price movements [1] Group 2: Investment Signals - Real-time analysis of gold order flows is being conducted to identify potential investment opportunities [1] - The article encourages subscribers to engage with ongoing market trend analyses related to commodities [1]
招银国际每日投资策略-20250708
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-07-08 01:51
Market Overview - Global markets experienced a mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 23,888, down 0.76% for the day but up 40.13% year-to-date [1] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq also saw declines of 0.79% and 0.92% respectively, while the DAX in Germany rose by 0.58% [1] - The report highlights a rise in risk aversion due to escalating trade tensions, particularly with new tariffs imposed by the U.S. on several countries [3] Industry Insights - The Chinese pharmaceutical sector has shown strong performance, with the MSCI China Healthcare Index up 41.4% year-to-date, outperforming the MSCI China Index by 16.2% [4] - The report emphasizes the need for a rational perspective on the valuation of innovative drugs, as the market anticipates higher transaction frequencies and scales for overseas deals [4] - Recent policy measures from the National Healthcare Security Administration are expected to enhance the long-term payment landscape for innovative drugs, with commercial health insurance projected to reach 977.3 billion yuan in 2024, a growth of 8.2% [5] Investment Recommendations - The report identifies several companies within the healthcare sector as attractive investment opportunities, including: - **Giant Bio**: Expected sales recovery driven by product and brand expansion [6] - **Guo Shengtang**: Rapid expansion of stores and strong cash flow [6] - **Angelalign**: Improving profitability in overseas markets [6] - Other recommended stocks include: - **Sangfor Technologies (1530 HK)**, **Giant Bio (2367 HK)**, **Guo Shengtang (2273 HK)**, **Angelalign (6699 HK)**, **BeiGene (ONC US)**, and **Innovent Biologics (1801 HK)** [6] Focus Stocks - The report lists several focus stocks with potential upside, including: - **Geely Automobile (175 HK)**: Target price of 24.00, representing a 47% upside [7] - **Xpeng Motors (XPEV US)**: Target price of 28.00, representing a 56% upside [7] - **Sany International (631 HK)**: Target price of 8.70, representing a 32% upside [7] - Other notable mentions include **Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US)**, **Polaire (603605 CH)**, and **Tencent (700 HK)**, all rated as "Buy" with significant upside potential [7]
海外高频 | 关税豁免即将到期,警惕关税升级风险(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
申万宏源宏观· 2025-07-06 14:35
Group 1: Major Asset & Overseas Events & Data - The three major US stock indices rose collectively, with the S&P 500 up 1.6% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 2.3% [2][3] - The 10-year US Treasury yield increased by 6.0 basis points to 4.4% [2][3] - The US dollar index fell by 0.3% to 96.99, while the offshore RMB appreciated to 7.1701 [2][3] - WTI crude oil rose by 1.5% to $66.5 per barrel, and COMEX gold increased by 1.9% to $3332.5 per ounce [2][3][31] Group 2: Employment Data - The US non-farm payrolls for June exceeded market expectations, with an increase of 147,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% [51][52] - The primary driver of job growth was an increase in state and local government employment [51] - The average hourly wage increased by 0.2%, below the market expectation of 0.3% [51] Group 3: Tariff and Trade Risks - The 90-day "tariff suspension" on US imports is set to expire on July 9, raising concerns about potential tariff increases [41][42] - Approximately 20 countries with slow negotiation progress may see the restoration of initial tariff rates unless recognized as "good faith negotiators" [41] - Vietnam is facing a potential 20% tariff on its goods, with a 40% tariff on third-country goods transshipped through Vietnam [41][42] Group 4: Treasury Auction Demand - The demand for US Treasury auctions remained robust, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.26 for the 4-week bill, indicating strong interest [44][45] - Indirect bids accounted for 78.6% of the total, marking a recent high [44][45] Group 5: Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chair Powell indicated that the impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to manifest in the summer, suggesting that the Fed would have lowered rates sooner without the tariff policies [47][49] - Some Fed officials expressed a cautious stance on interest rate cuts, focusing on short-term inflation impacts [47][49]
关税风暴、中东危局交织下 股市盼“拨云见日”?当心真相更刺眼
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-06-23 06:54
Group 1 - The current global uncertainty is at a decades-high level, driven by events such as Trump's tariff announcements and the Israel-Iran conflict [1][8] - The U.S. is facing a potential doubling of import tariffs if no trade agreements are reached by the end of the 90-day grace period [8] - The U.S. Commerce Department is expected to impose new tariffs or import restrictions on various goods, including semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, following ongoing investigations [8] Group 2 - The existing tariffs could raise U.S. inflation by 0.9 percentage points over the next 12 months, with further increases if tariffs are restored to higher levels [11] - The impact of the proposed budget plan on inflation is minimal compared to the immediate effects of tariff increases [11] - If oil prices rise significantly due to geopolitical tensions, the inflation rate could increase by up to 2 percentage points, surpassing the effects seen in the UK and Eurozone [11] Group 3 - Despite rising risk indicators, U.S. stock investors remain optimistic, with the market currently overvalued by 15% compared to fundamental economic levels [13] - Historical data suggests that such overvaluation often leads to an average 7% correction in the S&P 500 index over the following three months [14] - The resilience of the U.S. stock market may be tested if uncertainties lead to high inflation or economic slowdown [16]
研究所晨会观点精萃-20250603
Dong Hai Qi Huo· 2025-06-03 07:51
Overall Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Global trade tensions are escalating, leading to increased short - term volatility in global markets. The market has a mixed attitude towards the trade situation, with optimism about trade dialogues but also concerns about tariff hikes. In China, the May PMI data shows economic expansion, yet US trade restrictions pose a short - term dampening effect on domestic risk appetite [2][3]. - Different asset classes have different outlooks. For example, stocks are expected to be volatile in the short - term, with a cautious approach to long - positions; bonds are at a high level and should be observed carefully; various commodity sectors also have their own short - term trends and trading suggestions [2]. Summary by Categories Macro - Overseas: US "steel tariffs" and EU's potential counter - measures, along with intensified Russia - Ukraine conflict, have increased geopolitical risks and global risk aversion. However, the market remains optimistic about US trade dialogues, and the US dollar index is generally weak. - Domestic: China's May PMI data indicates economic expansion, but US restrictions in semiconductor and other fields, as well as tariff hikes, pose short - term pressure on domestic risk appetite. Asset suggestions include short - term cautious long - positions for stocks, high - level observation for bonds, and different trading stances for various commodity sectors [2]. Stocks - Affected by sectors such as controllable nuclear fusion, domestic stocks have declined slightly. The May PMI data is positive, but US trade restrictions and tariff hikes suppress domestic risk appetite. The market is focused on US trade policies and domestic incremental policies. Short - term cautious long - positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Last week, precious metals showed a volatile pattern, with COMEX gold down 1.33% to $3313.1 per ounce and silver down 1.68%. Fed's cautious stance, Trump's tariff policies, and geopolitical risks have affected the market. In the short - term, precious metals are expected to be strong, and in the long - term, the upward logic remains solid. Attention should be paid to long - term layout opportunities after corrections [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Before the holiday, the spot market was stable, but the futures price declined. During the holiday, trade conflicts increased risk aversion. In the short - term, the steel market is expected to be weak as supply remains high while demand is affected by trade tensions [6]. - **Iron Ore**: Before the holiday, prices were weak. Although iron - water production has declined, the market is divided on its future path. Supply may increase in the second quarter, and the price is expected to be bearish in the short - term [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: Before the holiday, prices were flat. Demand is fair, but silicon manganese is in an industry - wide loss, and silicon iron has weak downstream procurement. In the short - term, the market is expected to fluctuate within a range [7]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ production increase is in line with expectations, and geopolitical risks in Ukraine and Iran, along with Canadian wildfires, have pushed up oil prices [8]. - **Asphalt**: As oil prices rise, asphalt prices are expected to follow. Demand is currently average, and inventory depletion has stagnated. It will continue to fluctuate at a high level following crude oil [8]. - **PX**: The price is high, and it is expected to be strong in the short - term, but there is a risk of a slight decline later due to potential demand reduction [9]. - **PTA**: Downstream production has decreased, and supply is expected to increase, leading to a weakening structure in the future [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply has contracted, but downstream production cuts limit inventory depletion. The price will slightly increase [9]. - **Short - fiber**: It remains in a weak and volatile pattern, with concerns about downstream production and order release [9]. - **Methanol**: Import and port inventory are increasing, and prices are expected to decline in the medium - to - long - term [10]. - **PP**: Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is in a seasonal low. The price is likely to move downward [10]. - **LLDPE**: The supply - demand situation is expected to worsen, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The market expects a 50% tariff on copper, driving up prices. The copper ore supply is tight, but demand may decline in the short - term, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation [11]. - **Aluminum**: The 50% tariff on aluminum has led to a slight increase in prices. Supply is high, and demand is expected to decline, but there is still an export rush effect. It is recommended to observe [12]. - **Tin**: High tariffs, potential supply increases from Myanmar, and seasonal demand decline pose pressure on prices, but it has stabilized after a significant drop [13]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The CBOT soybean market is supported by a weak US dollar but faces challenges such as good planting conditions in the US, high Brazilian inventory, and slow sales due to trade tensions. It may maintain a weak range - bound trend [13]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: Oil mills' inventory is expected to recover, and the lack of upward momentum in US soybeans affects soybean meal. Rapeseed meal has supply uncertainties. The spread between soybean and rapeseed meal may shrink [14]. - **Oils and Fats**: During the holiday, oils and fats were under pressure. The energy market is expected to decline in the medium - to - long - term, and domestic oils may continue to decline after the holiday, with the soybean - palm oil spread likely to remain inverted [14]. - **Hogs**: After the Dragon Boat Festival, the supply - demand situation is weak, and pig prices may continue to decline, but there may be a short - term correction in near - month contracts [15]. - **Corn**: New wheat listing may replace some corn demand, but in the long - run, corn is likely to rise, and it will maintain a range - bound trend [15].
研究所晨会观点精萃-20250527
Dong Hai Qi Huo· 2025-05-27 02:55
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the EU plans to accelerate tariff negotiations with the US after the US threatens to impose tariffs on the EU, reducing global risk aversion. The US dollar index rebounds in the short - term, and global risk appetite rises. Domestically, although domestic demand in April slowed down and was lower than expected, industrial production and exports far exceeded expectations, and the economic growth remained stable. The central bank's interest - rate cut and the reduced risk of tariff escalation between the US and the EU help boost domestic risk appetite in the short term [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends: the stock index oscillates in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; treasury bonds oscillate at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; among commodity sectors, black metals oscillate at a low level in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; non - ferrous metals oscillate strongly in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; energy and chemicals oscillate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; precious metals oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long [2]. Summary by Directory Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Affected by sectors such as biomedicine, automobiles, and banks, the domestic stock market continued to decline slightly. The short - term risk appetite may be boosted, but there is no obvious macro - drive for trading currently. It is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term [2][3]. - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical risks and trade policy disturbances increase, and the short - term support for gold is strengthened. In the long - term, the uncertainty of the US economy and the marginal weakening of US debt credit will support the upward movement of the valuation center of precious metals [3][4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel market is in a dilemma, with weakening real demand and increasing supply. It is advisable to treat the short - term steel market with an interval - oscillation mindset [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The price decline of iron ore has widened. Although the iron - water output has decreased, there are differences in the market's view of its decline path. The supply may increase in the second quarter, and it is advisable to take a bearish view in the short term [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron have decreased. The demand for ferroalloys is okay, but the downstream procurement sentiment is not good. The market will oscillate in the short term [6][7]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trump delays imposing a 50% tariff on the EU, boosting market sentiment. The short - term oil price may fluctuate significantly due to event - based factors and macro - impacts [8]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price oscillates weakly following crude oil. The demand is average, and the inventory de - stocking has stagnated. It will continue to fluctuate at a high level following crude oil in the short term [8]. - **PX**: The polyester sector has corrected, and PX has declined slightly. It maintains a strong oscillation in the short term but may decline slightly later [8]. - **PTA**: The downstream start - up rate has decreased, and PTA is affected by negative feedback from the downstream. The de - stocking rate will slow down, and the upward space is limited [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The de - stocking is mainly due to the decrease in start - up, and the price will oscillate [10]. - **Short - fiber**: It maintains a high - level and weak - oscillation pattern and will continue to oscillate in the short term [11]. - **Methanol**: The price in the Taicang market has declined, and the basis has strengthened. The price will likely remain stagnant in the short term but may decline in the long - term [11]. - **PP**: The domestic PP market has declined. The downstream demand is expected to weaken, and the price is expected to decline under pressure [12]. - **LLDPE**: The polyethylene market price has decreased. The short - term demand has been slightly repaired, but the supply pressure is expected to increase in the future, and the price may decline in the long - term [12]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper concentrate TC continues to decline, and the supply is increasing. The demand is about to enter the off - season, and the inventory is accumulating. The copper price will oscillate in the short term, and it is advisable to look for short - selling opportunities in the medium - term [14]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum inventory is decreasing significantly, but the demand growth rate cannot be sustained. It is advisable to be cautious about short - selling in the short term and wait for a better short - selling point [14]. - **Tin**: The supply is gradually recovering, but there is still a raw - material gap in China. The demand is about to enter the off - season, and the market is under pressure [15]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: There is no weather premium for US soybeans currently. The market is in a range - bound situation without a continuous upward drive [16][17]. - **Soybean Meal**: The basis of soybean meal is weakening, and it lacks a stable upward support [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The soybean oil inventory is increasing, and the demand is weak. The rapeseed oil inventory is high, but the price is supported by the low - level inventory of rapeseeds and the strong price - support intention of oil mills [17]. - **Palm Oil**: The palm oil in Southeast Asia is in the production - increasing cycle, and the domestic market generally fluctuates with the BMD market but has stronger support when falling [18]. - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs has decreased slightly before the Dragon Boat Festival, but the price is still under pressure in the future. The futures may rise in June due to the high basis [19]. - **Corn**: With the harvest of new - season wheat, the corn price is under pressure, and there is no upward drive currently [19].
整理:每日全球大宗商品市场要闻速递(5月26日)
news flash· 2025-05-26 06:47
Energy - Vietnam has signed a nuclear energy cooperation agreement with France [1] - Russia is in deep discussions with Bahrain regarding a liquefied natural gas supply agreement [1] - The US has invited officials from Japan and South Korea to Alaska to discuss cooperation, including a large natural gas pipeline project [1] - HSBC expects OPEC+ to announce an acceleration in supply increases in July, similar to May and June, with a pause in production increases expected in Q1 2026. The forecast for Brent crude oil prices is $68.5 per barrel in 2025 and $65 per barrel in 2026, with increasing downside risks [1] - Egypt's Ministry of Petroleum announced the arrival of a floating storage and regasification unit, ENERGOS POWER, from Germany with a capacity of 174,000 cubic meters, and plans to lease two additional units [1] Precious Metals and Mining - The Democratic Republic of the Congo aims to reach a mineral agreement with the US regarding eastern rebellion by the end of June [2] - The Turkish Finance Minister stated that the country has over $400 billion in unregistered gold reserves, which are not reflected in the banking system and reserves [2] - Citigroup has raised its 0-3 month target price for gold to $3,500 per ounce due to new tariff escalations, expecting gold prices to consolidate between $3,100 and $3,500 per ounce. The target prices for platinum and palladium remain unchanged at $1,050 and $900 per ounce, respectively [2] Agriculture - Japan's Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries announced a new government rice reserve release plan, moving away from bidding to direct contracts with large retailers, with a pre-tax price of 10,700 yen for 60 kilograms of brown rice, which is 47% cheaper than the most recent bid price [2]
冯德莱恩:若有具体的贸易协议 可能会访问美国
news flash· 2025-05-09 11:13
Core Points - European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen indicated a willingness to visit the U.S. for trade discussions if a concrete trade proposal is presented [1] - Von der Leyen emphasized the need for a specific and mutually agreeable solution before any meeting with President Trump [1] - The European Commission announced potential additional tariffs on U.S. exports worth €95 billion if trade negotiations do not yield satisfactory results [1] - Von der Leyen expressed a preference for resolving issues through negotiations to avoid tariff escalation, while also preparing countermeasures if necessary [1]