出海机会

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基建投资延续高增,关注顺周期及出海机会
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-04-16 15:20
Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained as "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Viewpoints - Infrastructure investment continues to show high growth, with significant increases in municipal and water conservancy investments, which grew by 26.0% and 36.8% year-on-year respectively in the first quarter of 2025 [1][2] - New signed orders for construction companies indicate a recovery in infrastructure sentiment, with notable increases in orders for major companies such as China Construction and Sichuan Road and Bridge [1] - The report suggests focusing on the conversion rhythm of physical workload in infrastructure and investment opportunities in high-sentiment provinces like Sichuan [1] - The report highlights the potential for cyclical recovery driven by warming physical volumes in infrastructure and real estate, alongside expectations for policy support amid tariff impacts [1] - The report recommends monitoring the recovery of international engineering projects along the Belt and Road, particularly in Europe and ASEAN [1] Summary by Sections Infrastructure Investment - In the first three months of 2025, infrastructure investment showed a year-on-year increase of 11.5%, with a monthly increase of 12.6% in March [1] - New special bonds issued in Q1 amounted to 960.2 billion, an increase of 326.1 billion year-on-year, providing strong support for infrastructure investment [1] Real Estate Market - Real estate sales area decreased by 3% year-on-year in the first quarter, with a monthly decline of 1.6% in March [2] - New construction area saw a significant drop of 24.4% year-on-year, while the completion area decreased by 14.3% [2] Cement and Glass Industry - Cement production in the first quarter was 331 million tons, a decline of 1.4% year-on-year, but March saw a recovery with a 2.5% increase [3] - The average cement price remained stable at 402 yuan per ton as of April 13, with expectations for price increases in early April [3] - Flat glass production fell by 6.4% year-on-year in the first quarter, but market trading conditions are gradually improving [4] Key Stock Recommendations - The report recommends several stocks for investment, including Sichuan Road and Bridge, China Construction, and China Electric Power, all rated as "Buy" [15]