钼精矿创近 29 个月新高，钨精矿价格续创 2011 年以来新高水平 2025 年 8 月 25 日 行业研究 要点 流动性：7 月 M1 和 M2 增速差收窄至-3.2 个百分点，创近 49 个月新高。 （1）BCI 中小企业融资环境指数 2025 年 7 月值为 46.09，环比上月 -6.16%；（2）M1 和 M2 增速差与上证指数存在较强的正向相关性：M1 和 M2 增速差在 2025 年 7 月为-3.2 个百分点，环比+0.5 个百分点。 基建和地产链条：8 月上旬重点企业粗钢旬度日均产量环比+4.64%。（1） 本周价格变动：螺纹-0.91%、水泥价格指数+1.70%、橡胶+0.00%、焦炭 +3.52%、焦煤+0.47%、铁矿-0.65%；（2）本周全国高炉产能利用率、水 泥 、 沥 青 、 全 钢 胎 开 工 率 环 比 分 别 +0.03pct 、 -18.25pct 、 +1.3pct 、 +1.67pct；（3）8 月上旬重点企业粗钢旬度日均产量环比+4.64%。 地产竣工链条：钛白粉、平板玻璃毛利润处于低位水平。本周钛白粉、玻璃 的价格环比分别+0.00%、+0.00%，玻璃毛利润 ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial performance of Sanxia New Materials in the first half of 2025 shows significant declines in revenue and profit margins, attributed to pressures from both product pricing and sales volume in a competitive market environment [2][3][6]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Sanxia New Materials reported operating revenue of 625 million CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 28.01% [6]. - The company recorded a net loss attributable to shareholders of 26.99 million CNY, a decline of 182.33% compared to the previous year [6]. - The gross margin was -0.65%, down 11.06 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was -4.01%, down 8.15 percentage points [2][3]. - Operating costs were 630 million CNY, a decrease of 19.13% year-on-year [1][2]. Expense Breakdown - Sales expenses amounted to 2.22 million CNY, down 29.06% year-on-year [1][2]. - Management expenses increased to 25.08 million CNY, up 28.22% year-on-year [1][2]. - Financial expenses rose to 9.03 million CNY, an increase of 9.75% year-on-year [1][2]. - Research and development expenses surged to 49.05 million CNY, a significant increase of 66.08% year-on-year [1][2]. Market Context - The primary application of Sanxia New Materials' products is in the downstream real estate and construction glass sectors [3]. - The flat glass market in China is experiencing overcapacity, with the country accounting for approximately 50% of the world's total glass production [3]. - The ongoing downturn in the real estate sector has led to further declines in glass prices, intensifying competition in the flat glass market [3]. Production and Sales Data - In the first half of 2025, the company produced 12.29 million heavy boxes of flat glass, with a product quality rate of 91.37% [3]. - Sales of flat glass reached 10.85 million heavy boxes, resulting in a sales rate of 88.28% [3]. - The production of LOW-E coated glass was 750,000 square meters, with sales of 684,000 square meters, achieving a sales rate of 97.44% [3]. - The company also produced 16.55 million tons of fine sand, generating sales revenue of 2.7 million CNY from tailings [3]. Legal Matters - Sanxia New Materials is pursuing a legal claim for 163 million CNY in compensation related to a loan guarantee for Shenzhen Hengbo Commercial Chain Co., which resulted in a default [3][4]. - A court ruling on March 31, 2025, dismissed all of Sanxia New Materials' claims, requiring the company to bear legal costs of 902,400 CNY [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [6] Core Insights - The liquidity indicators show that the M1 and M2 growth rate difference narrowed to -3.2 percentage points in July, marking a 49-month high [1][11] - The construction and real estate sectors are experiencing a decline, with key enterprises' average daily crude steel output hitting a year-to-date low in late July [2][20] - The profitability of titanium dioxide and flat glass remains low, with significant negative margins reported [70] Summary by Sections Liquidity - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -3.2 percentage points in July, a month-on-month increase of 0.5 percentage points [1][17] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for July was 46.09, down 6.16% month-on-month [1][17] - The London gold spot price decreased by 1.86% compared to the previous week [1] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Key enterprises' average daily crude steel output reached a year-to-date low in late July [2][38] - The national real estate new construction area from January to July 2025 showed a year-on-year decline of 19.40% [20] - The national cement price index decreased by 0.37% this week, with a cement profit of 29 yuan/ton [56] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate of semi-steel tires is at a five-year high, with a current rate of 72.07%, down 2.28 percentage points [2] - Major commodity prices showed mixed results, with cold-rolled steel, copper, and aluminum prices increasing by 1.24%, 0.69%, and 0.24% respectively [2] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in July was 47.10%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points [4] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates was 1193.34 points, down 0.62% [4] Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 2.37%, with the industrial metals sector performing best at +5.31% [4] - The PB ratio of the ordinary steel sector relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is currently at 0.54, with a historical high of 0.82 [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the profitability of the steel sector is expected to recover to historical average levels, following regulatory support for the industry [5]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The domestic soda ash production primarily utilizes the following methods: - **Soda-Lime Process** (49%) - **Ammonia-Soda Process** (34%) - **Natural Soda Process** (16%) - The natural soda process is favored for its cost and environmental advantages, but it is limited by resource availability [1][4][5] Core Insights and Arguments - **Cost Pressures**: The ammonia-soda and soda-lime processes have production costs around **1,300 RMB/ton**, exceeding the market price of **1,200 RMB/ton**, leading to losses for many companies [1][5] - **Capacity and Supply**: By 2024, soda ash capacity is expected to reach **40.8 million tons**, with new natural soda mines exacerbating supply surplus. The industry may remain sluggish due to real estate sector drag, necessitating capacity clearance to improve supply-demand balance [1][6] - **Demand Shifts**: The demand for flat glass is declining, projected to be **32%** in 2024, while demand for photovoltaic glass is steadily increasing. The correlation between real estate completions and soda ash consumption is weak, with emerging sectors like photovoltaics partially offsetting real estate downturn impacts [1][9][10] - **Policy Impact**: Policies from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) and other agencies are expected to drive the exit of outdated capacities, improving industry supply-demand dynamics [1][12] Potential Investment Opportunities - **Current Profitability**: The soda ash industry is experiencing historically low profitability, with most companies incurring losses. However, companies like **Shandong Haihua**, **Boyang Chemical**, and **Zhongyan Chemical** show investment potential due to their operational resilience [1][14] - **Natural Soda Projects**: The new natural soda project by Zhongyan Chemical is expected to increase domestic natural soda capacity to **28%** by the end of 2025, potentially rising to **43%** post-project completion [1][13] - **Boyang Chemical's Growth**: The company focuses on natural gas operations, with the Alashan Phase II project expected to add **1.68 million tons** of soda ash and **240,000 tons** of sodium bicarbonate annually, contributing significantly to future growth [2][15] Additional Important Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The soda ash industry is characterized by global pricing, with historical peaks reaching **3,700 RMB/ton**. The current low prices and the inability to import economically from regions like the US and Turkey due to shipping and tariffs create a unique market situation [7][8] - **Future Demand from Photovoltaics**: Although there is short-term overcapacity in photovoltaic glass, long-term demand could increase by **5.5 million tons** of soda ash if overseas photovoltaic installations continue to rise [11] - **Dividend and Financial Health**: Boyang Chemical shows strong dividend intentions with payout ratios of **79%** and **61.6%** for 2023 and 2024, respectively, alongside a declining debt ratio and significant future cash flow potential [16] This summary encapsulates the critical aspects of the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the soda ash industry, along with potential investment opportunities and challenges.

智通财经APP讯，三峡新材(600293.SH)发布2025年半年度报告，该公司营业收入为6.25亿元，同比减少 28.01%。归属于上市公司股东的净亏损为2699.3万元。归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净亏 损为8062.69万元。基本每股亏损为0.02元。 公告显示，三峡新材下辖全资子公司湖北金晶、金晶玻璃，控股子公司新疆普耀、当玻硅矿，2025年上 半年生产平板玻璃1,229万重箱，产品普通级率91.37%，销售平板玻璃1,085万重箱以上，产销率88.28%; 生产LOW-E镀膜(单、双银)玻璃750万平方米，销售684万平方米，产销率97.44%。2025年上半年实现主 营业务收入6.25亿元，上缴税收1,794万元，生产精砂16.55万吨，尾砂销售收入270万元;深加工业务收 入341万元。 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Viewpoints - Infrastructure investment in July showed a high increase in railway and water electricity fuel investment, while overall infrastructure investment is experiencing marginal slowdown, particularly in the central and western regions [1][2] - Real estate development investment from January to July decreased by 12%, with a significant drop of 17.1% in July alone, indicating a continued weakness in the real estate sector [2] - The issuance of special bonds has accelerated, with a total of 27,775.89 billion yuan issued from January to July, representing a year-on-year increase of 56.5%, which is expected to support infrastructure investment growth in the second half of the year [1] - Cement demand is anticipated to gradually recover, with a focus on investment opportunities at relatively low points in the market, despite a 4.5% year-on-year decline in cement production from January to July [3] - The flat glass market is showing signs of improvement, with a slight increase in prices and a reduction in inventory levels, suggesting a potential recovery in demand [4] Summary by Sections Infrastructure Investment - In July, infrastructure investment growth was supported by a 21.5% year-on-year increase in water electricity fuel investment, while transportation and storage investment saw a 3.9% increase [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on major engineering projects and infrastructure investments in the central and western regions [1] Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector continues to show weakness, with significant declines in sales, new construction, and completion areas from January to July [2] - The report highlights the need for monitoring policy changes that could impact the real estate market [4] Cement and Glass Markets - Cement production decreased by 4.5% year-on-year, with a notable drop in July, but there are expectations for demand recovery as the market enters a peak season [3] - The flat glass market is experiencing a slight recovery, with improved trading conditions and reduced inventory levels [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for both the real estate and building materials sectors [2][4]. Core Insights - Recent policy optimizations in various cities are expected to stimulate local housing market demand, with more cities likely to introduce new stimulus measures [4][27]. - The real estate sector has seen a slight decrease in sales momentum over the past two months, but there is optimism for a rebound in sales and improvement in the fundamentals of real estate companies [4][27]. - In the building materials sector, particularly cement, there is a strong inclination for price increases due to reduced inventory pressure and improved demand from infrastructure projects [5][48]. Summary by Sections Real Estate Sector Overview - As of August 14, 2025, the Shenwan Real Estate Index has increased by 3.99% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.07 percentage points [14]. - The report highlights that the sales volume in key cities has increased by 10.8% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in market activity [24]. - Key companies to watch include Poly Developments (600048), Binjiang Group (002244), and China Merchants Shekou (001979), which are expected to perform well in the current market environment [27]. Building Materials Sector Overview - The Shenwan Building Materials Index has risen by 1.77% over the past two weeks, with a year-to-date increase of 13.38% [28]. - Cement prices are expected to stabilize and potentially increase due to production cuts and rising demand from housing and infrastructure projects [5][48]. - Recommended companies in the cement sector include Conch Cement (600585), Taipai Group (002233), and Huaxin Cement (600801), which are seen as having strong fundamentals and attractive dividend yields [48]. Key Data Points - The average price of cement in the national market is currently 316 RMB/ton, reflecting a slight decline due to weak demand [35]. - The report notes that the average price of flat glass has been under pressure, with production rates remaining low across various regions [40]. - The introduction of a fiscal subsidy policy for personal consumption loans is expected to boost demand for home improvement and building materials [49].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the current economic indicators and trends in various sectors, including liquidity, infrastructure, real estate, industrial products, and export chains, providing insights into potential investment opportunities and market dynamics. Liquidity - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -3.7 percentage points in June 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 1.9 percentage points [4] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index was 46.09 in July 2025, down 6.16% from the previous month [4] - London gold prices increased by 1.07% compared to the previous week [4] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Key enterprises' average daily crude steel production hit a new low for the year in late July [5] - Price changes included rebar down 0.60%, cement price index down 0.37%, rubber down 1.71%, coke up 3.79%, coking coal up 3.55%, and iron ore up 1.31% [5] - National blast furnace capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.15 percentage points, while cement and asphalt production rates increased by 10.00% and decreased by 0.6% respectively [5] Real Estate Completion Chain - Titanium dioxide and flat glass prices changed by -0.39% and 0.00% respectively, with glass profit at -58 CNY/ton and titanium dioxide profit at -1353 CNY/ton [6] - The flat glass operating rate was 73% this week [6] Industrial Products Chain - Major commodity prices showed cold-rolled steel, copper, and aluminum increasing by 1.26%, 0.33%, and 0.68% respectively, with corresponding profit changes of +6.01%, -18.19%, and +4.26% [7] - The national semi-steel tire operating rate was 74.35%, down 0.10 percentage points [7] Subcategories - The electrolytic aluminum capacity utilization rate reached a new high since 2012 [8] - Graphite electrode price was 18,000 CNY/ton, unchanged, with a comprehensive profit of 1357.4 CNY/ton, down 7.35% [8] - The price of electrolytic aluminum was 20,630 CNY/ton, up 0.68%, with estimated profit at 3,050 CNY/ton (excluding tax), up 4.26% [8] Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore was 4.24 this week [9] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel was 140 CNY/ton, while the price difference between Shanghai cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel was 380 CNY/ton, down 10 CNY/ton [9] - The price difference between medium-thick plates and rebar steel was 160 CNY/ton this week [9] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in July 2025 was 47.10%, down 0.6 percentage points [10] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates was 1200.73 points, down 2.56% [10] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate was 78.70%, up 0.30 percentage points [10] Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index increased by 1.23%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being engineering machinery at +6.21% [11] - The PB ratio of ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the CSI 300 index was 47.28% and 69.23% respectively [11] - The current PB ratio for the ordinary steel sector is 0.57, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [11]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight (Maintain)" [6] Core Views - The aluminum production capacity utilization rate reached a new high of 98.4% in July, the highest level since 2012 [3] - The steel sector's profitability is expected to recover to historical average levels due to government policies aimed at phasing out outdated capacity [5] - The construction and real estate sectors are experiencing a decline in key metrics, with significant drops in new construction and sales areas [23][76] Summary by Sections Liquidity - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -3.7 percentage points in June 2025, indicating a contraction in liquidity [11][20] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index was 46.09 in July, down 6.16% month-on-month [11][20] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Key enterprises' average daily crude steel output hit a yearly low in late July [2] - The national average capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 90.09%, down 0.15 percentage points [42] - The cumulative year-on-year decline in new construction area for real estate was -20% for the first half of 2025 [23] Industrial Products Chain - The average operating rate for semi-steel tires was 74.35%, down 0.10 percentage points [2] - Major commodity prices showed mixed performance, with cold-rolled steel, copper, and aluminum prices increasing by 1.26%, 0.33%, and 0.68% respectively [2] Exports Chain - The new export orders PMI for China was 47.10% in July, down 0.6 percentage points [4] - The CCFI composite index for container shipping rates was 1200.73, down 2.56% [4] Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.23%, with the engineering machinery sector performing best at +6.21% [4] - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the broader market was 0.57, with historical highs reaching 0.82 [4] Investment Recommendations - The steel sector is expected to see a recovery in profitability, supported by government policies [5] - Caution is advised regarding potential volatility in futures prices, particularly in coking coal [5]

Economic Indicators - As of August 10, 2025, the ECI supply index is at 50.06%, down 0.01 percentage points from the previous week, while the demand index is at 49.90%, down 0.02 percentage points[8] - The ELI index is at -0.84%, a decrease of 0.09 percentage points from last week, indicating a seasonal decline in loan demand for July[13] Loan and Financing Trends - It is expected that July's new RMB loans will be around 200 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 60 billion yuan[16] - Government bond financing in July reached 1.25 trillion yuan, an increase of 630 billion yuan year-on-year, supporting a projected social financing scale increase of 1.10-1.20 trillion yuan[16] Industrial Production - The industrial production index shows a decline in overall activity, with key sectors like automotive and chemicals experiencing weaker operating rates compared to last year[9] - The operating rate for automotive tires is at 61.00%, down 0.08 percentage points from the previous week[18] Consumer Behavior - In July, retail sales of passenger cars recorded 1.834 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.0%, but a month-on-month decrease of 12.0%[24] - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.44 yuan/kg, down 0.11 yuan/kg from the previous week[40] Export Performance - The export container freight index for Shanghai is at 1489.68 points, down 61.06 points from the previous week, indicating potential weakening in export activity[34] - South Korea's July export growth is at 5.90%, a 1.60 percentage point increase from June but down 8.00 percentage points year-on-year[34] Risks and Policy Outlook - Risks include uncertainties in U.S. tariff policies and the potential for policy measures to fall short of market expectations[2] - The government is expected to continue expanding financial support for new industrialization, aiming for a mature financial system by 2027[50]