铝产业链年报 2025 年 12 月 15 日 向阳而行 不忘风雨 核心观点及策略 一、 投资咨询业务资格 沪 证 监 许 可 【2015】 84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 | 图表 | 1 氧化铝期货价格 7 | | --- | --- | | 图表 | 2 氧化铝现货升贴水 7 | | 图表 | 3 氧化铝月差 7 | | 图表 | 4 国内外电解铝期货价格 7 | | 图表 | 5 沪伦铝比 8 | | 图表 | 6 沪铝月差 8 | | 图表 | 升贴水 7 LME 8 | | 图表 | 8 国内铝现货升贴水 8 | | 图表 | 9 铸造铝期货价格 8 | | 图表 | 10 铸造铝现货价格 8 | | 图表 | 11 ...

证券研究报告|行业深度 2025 12 03 年 月 日 算力之争，电力为王： 聚焦美国 A I能源革命核心赛道 分析师 张卓然 分析师 鲁昊 执业证书编号：S0680525080005 执业证书编号：S0680525080006 邮箱：zhangzhuoran@gszq.com 邮箱：luhao@gszq.com 分析师 张津铭 分析师 高紫明 分析师 刘力钰 执业证书编号：S0680520070001 执业证书编号：S0680524100001 执业证书编号：S0680524070012 邮箱：zhangjinming@gszq.com 邮箱：gaoziming@gszq.com 邮箱：liuliyu@gszq.com 打造极致专业与效率 汇报框架 目录 AI对美国电力需求的拉动几何 解决AI电力供需的有效途径 2 投资策略与相关标的 3 风险提示 4 2 1 AI对美国电力需求的拉动几何 3 • 美国电力供需现状 • 美国数据中心用电增长测算 • 供需错配与电网容量难以支撑用电高增 美国电力供需现状 01 AI对美国电力需求的拉动几何 图表2：美国各部门用电占比 资料来源： Wind，国盛证券研究所 资 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Range-bound oscillation [1] - Alumina: Continuing to find the bottom [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Following electrolytic aluminum [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the non - linear growth of AI computing power demand, in 2026, investors should shift their focus from "chips" to "removing bottlenecks", and the cumulative power shortage in US data centers from 2025 - 2028 will reach 47 gigawatts [3] - Most economies have very limited room for further monetary policy easing. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates only twice by the end of 2026, and the federal funds rate will remain in the range of 3.25% - 3.5% until 2027. The eurozone and Canada are expected to have no further room for interest rate cuts, while Japan is expected to steadily tighten its monetary policy [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Aluminum** - The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 21,910, with a change of 445 compared to T - 5 [1] - The closing price of the LME Aluminum 3M was 2,864, with a change of - 25 compared to T - 1 [1] - The trading volume of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 177,992, a decrease of 77,939 compared to T - 1 [1] - The LME Aluminum 3M trading volume was 19,748, a decrease of 1,971 compared to T - 1 [1] - The LME aluminum cash - 3M spread was - 25.95, with a change of 4.50 compared to T - 1 [1] - **Alumina** - The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2,670, a decrease of 57 compared to T - 5 [1] - The trading volume of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 177,845, a decrease of 64,249 compared to T - 1 [1] - **Aluminum Alloy** - The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 21,095, an increase of 390 compared to T - 5 [1] - The trading volume of the aluminum alloy main contract was 5,751, an increase of 1,657 compared to T - 1 [1] 3.2 Spot Market - **Aluminum** - The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 591,000 tons, a decrease of 13,000 tons compared to T - 5 [1] - The LME aluminum ingot inventory was 535,900 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons compared to T - 1 [1] - The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit and loss was 5,283.92, a decrease of 245.86 compared to T - 1 [1] - The aluminum spot import profit and loss was - 1,780.07, a decrease of 164.28 compared to T - 1 [1] - **Alumina** - The domestic average alumina price was 2,855, a decrease of 66 compared to T - 5 [1] - The alumina price at Lianyungang's arrival port was 338 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 2 compared to T - 5 [1] - **Aluminum Alloy** - The theoretical profit of ADC12 was - 235, a decrease of 76 compared to T - 5 [1] - The three - place inventory total was 49,410, a decrease of 494 compared to T - 1 [1] 3.3 Other Information - The trend strength of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy was all 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The North American power supply is facing shortages primarily due to an aging electrical grid and increased power demand driven by the rapid growth of data centers since the launch of ChatGPT 4.0 in November 2022. This has led to a significant rise in energy requirements, particularly for continuous power supply in data centers [2][4]. Key Companies and Their Performance Caterpillar - Caterpillar reported optimistic performance with a third-quarter revenue exceeding expectations, driven by an 18% growth in its energy and transportation segment, and a 26% increase in North America. The company plans to expand its gas turbine and diesel engine production capacity by 2.5 times and 2 times, respectively, by 2030, indicating sustained demand in North America [5]. Longyuan Donggu - Longyuan Donggu, a supplier of engine components, is expected to benefit from strong heavy truck sales and expansion into passenger vehicle markets. The company anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 30% over the next 3-5 years, with an attractive valuation [2][23]. Caterpillar's Supplier - Linde - Linde, a key supplier for Caterpillar, is projected to achieve revenues of 250 million yuan in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of over 30% expected as it capitalizes on new orders related to gas turbines and diesel engines [6][7]. KOTAI - KOTAI is the only OEM capable of exporting diesel generators to Europe and North America. The company has secured 70 orders in North America and expects to deliver around 500 units by 2026, significantly enhancing its profitability due to high margins in the European market [8][9][10]. Yinglian Co. - Yinglian Co., a leading supplier of gas turbine blades, is positioned to benefit from the tight demand in the North American market, presenting long-term investment value despite its current valuation not being fully recognized [14]. Jerry Holdings - Jerry Holdings has established a systematic presence in the North American power generation sector, generating revenue from gas turbine projects. The company expects sales of $70 million to $80 million in 2025 and aims to expand its leasing scale in North America [16][21]. Market Dynamics - The gas industry has entered a price increase cycle since 2021, primarily due to reduced turbine blade casting capacity during the pandemic, which has not yet recovered. This has led to delivery issues for aircraft engines, benefiting companies like Yingliu, which supplies components for GE's LEAP series engines [12][13]. Future Growth Potential - Jerry Holdings is expected to see significant growth in its gas turbine business, with projections of over 50% CAGR in the next 3-4 years. The company’s new orders have reached a historical high, and it is well-positioned for future expansion in both domestic and international markets [19][22]. Conclusion - The North American energy sector is experiencing a shift due to increased demand from data centers, leading to growth opportunities for companies involved in gas turbines and diesel engines. Key players like Caterpillar, KOTAI, and Jerry Holdings are well-positioned to capitalize on these trends, with strong growth forecasts and strategic expansions planned for the coming years [1][2][5][19].

Core Insights - The A-share market has shown strong performance in sectors related to "electricity," with many stocks in the power equipment industry reaching historical highs this week [1] - The surge in power equipment stocks is driven by increased electricity demand from data centers, policy support, and a resonance of domestic and international demand [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - This week, 94 stocks reached historical highs, a decrease from 107 the previous week, with a total of 980 stocks achieving this milestone since the beginning of the year [1] - Among the 94 stocks, the power equipment, electronics, and machinery equipment sectors had the highest concentration of new highs, with 22, 14, and 14 stocks respectively [1] - The top stocks by trading volume this week included Sungrow Power Supply (1000.85 billion), TBEA (694.69 billion), and others, indicating strong market activity [3] Group 2: Sector Drivers - The demand for electricity in data centers is expected to increase due to the accelerated development of AI and the deployment of intelligent computing centers, which will drive the need for electrical equipment [2][3] - The photovoltaic and lithium battery sectors are experiencing improved supply expectations and demand, with potential price turning points on the horizon [2] - Breakthroughs in solid-state battery technology are expanding the development space for new energy, enhancing market optimism for new energy equipment demand [3] Group 3: Stock Highlights - The stocks with the highest trading volumes among the 94 that reached historical highs included Sungrow Power Supply, TBEA, and others, with significant trading amounts [3] - The total market capitalization of the stocks reaching historical highs has decreased, with only 5 stocks exceeding 100 billion in market capitalization compared to 14 the previous week [5] - Notable stock price increases this week included Jingquan Technology (48.41%), TBEA (40.06%), and others, reflecting strong performance in the market [6]

Core Viewpoint - The energy storage sector is experiencing significant growth, driven by increasing electricity demand from data centers, which are becoming a critical variable in the energy system transition [1] Group 1: Data Center Electricity Demand - In 2023, electricity consumption by data centers in the U.S. accounted for 4.4% of the national total generation, projected to rise to 8% by 2028 [1] - Over the next five years, electricity demand from U.S. data centers is expected to grow by 50% to 150% [1] - Canada's data center electricity demand is anticipated to increase from 750 MW to 1160 MW by 2029 [1] Group 2: Energy Storage Market Dynamics - Domestic compensation electricity prices are gradually being introduced, leading to an unexpected surge in large-scale storage demand, with a projected growth of 30-40% in the coming years [1] - The U.S. is experiencing an unexpected rush in installations this year, with stable growth expected in the following years [1] - Emerging markets in Europe and the Middle East are anticipated to see a significant explosion in large-scale storage demand, contributing to sustained high growth [1] Group 3: Global Energy Storage Projections - The global energy storage installation is projected to have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30-50% from 2025 to 2028 [1] - The recovery of shipments in Europe following the completion of household storage depletion is leading to an explosion in industrial and commercial storage demand [1] - The demand for cost-competitive solar storage in emerging markets is expected to continue, further driving the energy storage sector [1]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Gas Turbine Industry - **Electricity Demand Surge**: The electricity consumption of data centers in the U.S. is expected to reach 325 to 580 TWh by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27%. Globally, data center electricity demand is projected to exceed 1,000 TWh by 2030, putting significant pressure on the power grid [1][3] Key Insights and Arguments - **Gas Turbines as Optimal Solution**: Gas turbines are favored due to their short construction cycle, quick startup, and stable operation, aligning well with the 2-4 year construction cycle of data centers. The approval process for gas turbine projects is approximately 10 months, significantly shorter than wind and solar projects [1][5] - **Global Gas Turbine Market Growth**: In 2023, global gas turbine market sales are estimated at 40-44 GW. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries anticipates an average sales volume of 60 GW from 2024 to 2026. In Q2 of this year, global orders increased by 38% year-over-year to 21 GW, with North America leading due to data center demand [1][6][7] - **Major Manufacturers' Expansion Plans**: Key players like GE, Siemens, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries are experiencing significant order growth and have announced expansion plans, indicating confidence in sustained industry growth. Mitsubishi plans to double its production capacity in the next two years, while Siemens and GE aim to increase production capacity by 50% [1][7] Market Opportunities - **Domestic Replacement Opportunities**: The trend of deindustrialization in Europe and the U.S. presents opportunities for domestic companies to enter the global gas turbine supply chain, particularly in high-end casting and forging components [1][8] - **Core Component Market**: High-value components such as hot-end turbine blades and rotor shafts are currently dominated by overseas companies. However, domestic firms like Diwei and Yingliu are expected to gain market share due to their technological advantages [2][8][9] Company-Specific Developments - **Diwei's Competitive Edge**: Diwei is focusing on the production of high-end forged components for gas turbines and has established supply relationships with major clients like Baker Hughes and Caterpillar. The market value of gas turbines is approximately 2 to 3 billion RMB per GW, with a projected demand of 150 billion RMB over the next three years [9][10] - **Yingliu's Market Position**: Yingliu is a leading player in the high-temperature blade market, with a 100% increase in order volume expected in 2024. The company has secured over 1.2 billion RMB in orders and is expanding its production capacity [4][11][12] - **Liande's Progress**: Liande has developed a full industrial chain technology for high-precision casting and machining, beginning to supply gas turbine components in bulk. The company has a strong partnership with Caterpillar, enhancing its market position [13] Additional Insights - **Strategic Importance of Rare Metals**: The production of rare strategic metals like lithium is becoming increasingly important, with rising prices due to demand. Companies like Sains are investing in production lines to capitalize on this trend [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - Dominion Energy has not observed any signs of a slowdown in demand for power supply from data centers [1] Group 1 - The company indicates that the demand for electricity from data centers remains strong [1]

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