Group 1 - The report emphasizes the transition from dividend growth to future high dividends, highlighting the need to anchor indices and reduce tracking errors due to new regulatory environments [7][8]. - The original dividend growth portfolio lacked bank stocks, which affected its capacity and dividend yield, making it less conventional for institutions that typically rely on banks for dividend allocation [7][8]. - The advantages of the dividend growth portfolio lie in its ability to predict future dividend increases while excluding stocks with declining future dividends, essentially seeking companies with future high dividends [10][11]. Group 2 - The future high dividend portfolio is expected to yield significant excess returns compared to the historical high dividend portfolio, with a backtest showing that selecting the top 100 stocks based on future dividend rates leads to better performance [11][13]. - Historical dividend yield is identified as a significant predictor of future dividend rates, with other factors like valuation, profitability, and growth also showing predictive capabilities, albeit weaker [14][16]. - A multi-factor approach is suggested for predicting future dividend rates, where historical dividend yield is prioritized, followed by growth factors to enhance the selection process [20][25]. Group 3 - The report proposes a combined strategy of high dividend and dividend growth by first constructing a stock pool based on predicted dividend growth and then filtering for high dividend yield stocks [29][39]. - The stock pool is derived from two dimensions: stable dividend ratios with growth expectations and consecutive years of increasing dividends, which helps filter out companies likely to reduce dividends in the future [34][39]. - A multi-factor scoring method is recommended for stock selection, focusing on dividend yield, valuation, and profitability, with the aim of constructing a robust dividend growth portfolio [40][43]. Group 4 - The Hong Kong stock market's dividend growth strategy is explored, showing that approximately 60% of stocks with dividends increased their payouts year-over-year [67][68]. - A backtest from December 2014 to April 2025 indicates that the known dividend growth portfolio outperformed the benchmark with an annualized return of 14.21% compared to 8.28% for the benchmark [68][70]. - The report concludes that a simple momentum-based dividend growth strategy in the Hong Kong market has not proven effective, as the performance of the constructed portfolio did not yield significant excess returns [71].

Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor Name: BP (Book-to-Price Ratio) - **Construction Idea**: Measures the valuation of a stock by comparing its book value to its market value [13] - **Construction Process**: - Formula: $ BP = \frac{\text{Current Book Value}}{\text{Current Market Value}} $ [13] Factor Name: BP Three-Year Percentile - **Construction Idea**: Evaluates the relative valuation of a stock over the past three years [13] - **Construction Process**: - Formula: BP Three-Year Percentile = Percentile rank of the current BP within the last three years [13] Factor Name: Quarterly EP (Earnings-to-Price Ratio) - **Construction Idea**: Measures the profitability of a stock relative to its market price [13] - **Construction Process**: - Formula: $ \text{Quarterly EP} = \frac{\text{Quarterly Net Profit}}{\text{Net Assets}} $ [13] Factor Name: Quarterly EP One-Year Percentile - **Construction Idea**: Tracks the relative profitability of a stock over the past year [13] - **Construction Process**: - Formula: Quarterly EP One-Year Percentile = Percentile rank of the current Quarterly EP within the last year [13] Factor Name: Quarterly SP (Sales-to-Price Ratio) - **Construction Idea**: Measures the revenue generation capability of a stock relative to its market price [13] - **Construction Process**: - Formula: $ \text{Quarterly SP} = \frac{\text{Quarterly Revenue}}{\text{Net Assets}} $ [13] Factor Name: Quarterly SP One-Year Percentile - **Construction Idea**: Tracks the relative revenue generation capability of a stock over the past year [13] - **Construction Process**: - Formula: Quarterly SP One-Year Percentile = Percentile rank of the current Quarterly SP within the last year [13] Factor Name: Small Market Cap - **Construction Idea**: Captures the size effect by focusing on smaller companies [13] - **Construction Process**: - Formula: $ \text{Small Market Cap} = \log(\text{Market Capitalization}) $ [13] Factor Name: 1-Month Reversal - **Construction Idea**: Captures the short-term reversal effect in stock prices [13] - **Construction Process**: - Formula: $ \text{1-Month Reversal} = \text{Cumulative Return over the Last 20 Trading Days} $ [13] Factor Name: Fama-French Three-Factor 1-Month Residual Volatility - **Construction Idea**: Measures the idiosyncratic risk of a stock based on the Fama-French three-factor model [13] - **Construction Process**: - Formula: $ \text{Residual Volatility} = \text{Standard Deviation of Residuals from Fama-French Three-Factor Regression over the Last 20 Trading Days} $ [13] --- Factor Backtesting Results IC Performance - **BP**: Weekly IC = -4.17%, Monthly IC = 0.88%, Yearly IC = 1.86%, Historical IC = 2.19% [9] - **BP Three-Year Percentile**: Weekly IC = -1.08%, Monthly IC = -0.99%, Yearly IC = 2.58%, Historical IC = 1.58% [9] - **Quarterly EP**: Weekly IC = 2.10%, Monthly IC = -0.48%, Yearly IC = -0.46%, Historical IC = 1.18% [9] - **Quarterly EP One-Year Percentile**: Weekly IC = 4.23%, Monthly IC = 3.81%, Yearly IC = 0.98%, Historical IC = 1.73% [9] - **Quarterly SP**: Weekly IC = 0.79%, Monthly IC = 0.93%, Yearly IC = 0.53%, Historical IC = 0.74% [9] - **Quarterly SP One-Year Percentile**: Weekly IC = 4.80%, Monthly IC = 2.82%, Yearly IC = 2.87%, Historical IC = 1.83% [9] - **Small Market Cap**: Weekly IC = 10.49%, Monthly IC = 8.17%, Yearly IC = 3.61%, Historical IC = 2.05% [9] - **1-Month Reversal**: Weekly IC = 7.22%, Monthly IC = 1.22%, Yearly IC = 3.40%, Historical IC = 2.22% [9] - **Fama-French Three-Factor 1-Month Residual Volatility**: Weekly IC = 3.60%, Monthly IC = 1.11%, Yearly IC = 3.49%, Historical IC = 2.48% [9] Excess Return Performance (Long-Only Portfolio) - **BP**: Weekly Excess Return = -0.83%, Monthly Excess Return = -1.04%, Yearly Excess Return = 3.02%, Historical Cumulative Excess Return = 28.90% [11] - **BP Three-Year Percentile**: Weekly Excess Return = -0.58%, Monthly Excess Return = -1.51%, Yearly Excess Return = 0.97%, Historical Cumulative Excess Return = -3.21% [11] - **Quarterly EP**: Weekly Excess Return = 0.57%, Monthly Excess Return = 1.10%, Yearly Excess Return = 1.44%, Historical Cumulative Excess Return = 30.83% [11] - **Quarterly EP One-Year Percentile**: Weekly Excess Return = -0.01%, Monthly Excess Return = 0.51%, Yearly Excess Return = 3.23%, Historical Cumulative Excess Return = 34.69% [11] - **Quarterly SP**: Weekly Excess Return = -0.01%, Monthly Excess Return = 0.49%, Yearly Excess Return = 0.70%, Historical Cumulative Excess Return = -2.69% [11] - **Quarterly SP One-Year Percentile**: Weekly Excess Return = 0.09%, Monthly Excess Return = 1.25%, Yearly Excess Return = 7.91%, Historical Cumulative Excess Return = 2.23% [11] - **Small Market Cap**: Weekly Excess Return = 0.96%, Monthly Excess Return = 2.76%, Yearly Excess Return = 18.31%, Historical Cumulative Excess Return = 62.57% [11] - **1-Month Reversal**: Weekly Excess Return = 0.83%, Monthly Excess Return = 0.76%, Yearly Excess Return = 3.54%, Historical Cumulative Excess Return = 1.57% [11] - **Fama-French Three-Factor 1-Month Residual Volatility**: Weekly Excess Return = 0.28%, Monthly Excess Return = 0.75%, Yearly Excess Return = 8.69%, Historical Cumulative Excess Return = 18.67% [11]