丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨钢铁 [Table_Title] 如何展望钢铁成本和供给侧的催化和节奏？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 成本方面，西芒杜和四大矿等低成本产能扩张的趋势决定矿价长期下行的方向，节奏上看，3~4 月矿价有望进入加速下跌的阶段。考虑到当前铁矿库存已累积至历史高位，本轮矿价的下行幅 度或更大，节奏也可能提前。供给方面，反内卷仍是钢铁行业的主线。不规范企业或面临较大 的产量压降幅度，限产后成本劣势凸显。同时，钢铁出口管控旨在减少低端出口，有望从供需 两端对落后产能予以打击。节奏上看，基于环保、能耗等"分级管理评价"的关键抓手完成的 截止期限为 2025 年底；2026 年年初，分级管理评价的结果有望出台，配套政策有望跟随。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 王鹤涛 赵超 易轰 吕士诚 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490520080012 SAC：S0490525080005 SFC：BQT626 SFC：BUY139 SFC：BUZ394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% res ...

Core Insights - Shenzhen is leading the development of low-altitude economy in China, with significant experiences to share [1][2] - The essence of low-altitude economy is an upward extension of ground transportation rather than a simple downward expansion of traditional aviation [3] - Safety is a non-negotiable bottom line for the development of low-altitude economy [6][7] Government and Policy - The Shenzhen government has recognized the importance of low-altitude economy and has implemented policies early, including the establishment of intelligent low-altitude infrastructure [2] - Shenzhen has introduced the "Shenzhen Special Economic Zone Low-altitude Economy Industry Promotion Regulations," becoming the first in the country to regulate this field [2] Development Methodology - Low-altitude economy requires a new management system based on digital means and must follow a phased planning and hierarchical management approach [1][4] - The development of low-altitude economy should match local infrastructure with the level of economic development, avoiding overly ambitious plans [4][5] Safety Considerations - Low-altitude flight safety is more complex than traditional civil aviation due to the urban environment and the presence of people and vehicles on the ground [6][7] - Monitoring technology is a significant bottleneck in ensuring safety, as existing technologies cannot fully meet the requirements for tracking all types of low-altitude flying vehicles [7] Investment Opportunities - The recent decline in financing for low-altitude economy aligns with the natural progression of new industries, where initial enthusiasm may wane if growth expectations are not met [8] - Long-term investors should focus on sectors related to flying vehicles, low-altitude flight, and infrastructure within the low-altitude economy [8]