创业板今天有所回调，单日跌幅1.66%，是今年7月最大单日跌幅。市场发生了什么？我们做一个快速解读。 为什么突然回调？ 创业板后市怎么看？ 我们对于创业板后市依旧相对乐观，和前期逻辑变化不大。 一是短期冲高有调整需求。今天之前，6月23日以来的29个交易日，创业板指有19天在涨，短期积累了较大的获利盘，部分 资金在高位兑现收益，从而导致了这两天的回调。 再拉长时间来看，创业板4月以来几乎是单边上涨了3个多月，过程中歇口气比较正常，我们前期也提示过冲高过快可能会 有波动。 二是，昨天重要会议召开，没有加码措施出台。而且表述上，与4月相比，删除了"外部冲击影响加大"，增加了"主要经济 指标表现良好"，因此市场预期的增量政策，短期可能会搁置了。 要知道，本轮行情主要是资金推动，还需要政策的跟进和后续基本面的回暖。 第三，我们之前也多次提过，4月以来市场反弹还因为关税问题的缓和带动情绪乐观，但最近两天中美第三轮贸易谈判没有 出现超预期的结果（当然也是因为好谈的问题前期都谈完了，越往后越难谈）。 而根据最近美国商务部长卢特尼克的公开声明，美国不会再延长8月1日的加征关税期限。8月开始，全球对美贸易的高关税 都会落地了， ...

Group 1 - The current market sentiment is favorable for the ChiNext board, driven by strong performance in sectors such as stablecoins, pharmaceuticals, photovoltaics, military, and solid-state technologies [2] - High-frequency economic indicators show improvement in Q2 compared to Q1 across various industries, particularly in TMT (digital media, cinema, components, gaming), industrial products (motors, automation equipment, photovoltaics, wind power), and consumer goods (specialty chains, retail, tourism, medical devices) [2] - The upcoming earnings reports from high-performing companies, particularly in the ChiNext board, are expected to be released in early July, contributing to positive market momentum [3] Group 2 - The performance of the ChiNext index has been strong due to favorable fundamentals, with expectations for continued upward movement depending on upcoming non-farm payroll data [4] - Market expectations for non-farm payrolls suggest an addition of 110,000 jobs, down from the previous 139,000, indicating a potential shift towards lower interest rates if the data is disappointing [4] - The global trend of central banks, including the Federal Reserve, moving towards interest rate cuts is seen as beneficial for the stock market, particularly for the ChiNext board [5] Group 3 - The current market trend is identified as bullish, with a focus on capitalizing on short-term opportunities within the ChiNext board while maintaining awareness of broader market cycles [7] - Technical indicators, such as the MACD, suggest a supportive environment for the ChiNext board, indicating potential for further gains [7]