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保险股历史行情复盘:哪些因素是保险股行情的催化剂?
Soochow Securities· 2025-10-14 10:26
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the insurance sector [2] Core Insights - The insurance sector has seen improvements on both asset and liability sides, with valuations and public fund holdings still at low levels. The asset side has been the main driver of the sector's performance in 2024, significantly influenced by the stock market. The fundamentals of the sector are improving, with expectations for steady profit growth in Q3 due to a strong stock market and stable long-term interest rates. The sector's valuation remains attractive compared to historical levels, and the overall new business value (NBV) is expected to maintain a rapid growth rate [2][5][11]. Summary by Sections Historical Performance - Since the listing of insurance stocks in 2007, the insurance index has increased by 165%, outperforming the market by 55%. Notably, in years like 2014, 2017, 2022, and 2024, the sector achieved over 20% excess returns [5][11][12]. Catalysts for Insurance Stock Performance - The three main factors influencing insurance stock performance are stock market trends, long-term interest rates, and liability performance. The correlation between the insurance index and the stock market is strong, with bull markets acting as key catalysts for insurance stock performance. Long-term interest rates significantly impact the insurance companies' profit margins and product sales, while liability performance is assessed through new business premiums and NBV [5][16][19]. Historical Market Trends - The report identifies five significant market trends for the insurance sector since 2014, highlighting the importance of stock market performance, interest rate movements, and liability improvements in driving excess returns. For instance, the 2014-2015 period was characterized by a bull market and high growth in the liability side, while the 2017 period saw a combination of rising interest rates and value transformation leading to significant excess returns [5][42][45]. Current Investment Value - The report indicates that insurance stocks have shown significant excess returns since 2024, with a notable narrowing of the A-H share price gap. Future catalysts for upward price movement in the insurance sector are anticipated [5][11].
25H1上市险企人身险成本盘点:新单成本平均同比下降 65bps
Huachuang Securities· 2025-09-04 07:43
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" with expectations of exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [24]. Core Insights - The average new business cost for listed insurance companies has decreased by 65 basis points year-on-year as of H1 2025, driven by adjustments in preset interest rates and the integration of individual insurance channels [2][12]. - The VIF breakeven yield for listed insurance companies is estimated to be in the range of 2.21% to 3.39%, while the NBV breakeven yield is between 1.5% and 2.89% [2]. - The report indicates that the quality of liability management in the insurance industry is gradually improving, with a potential slowdown in the speed of convergence of "interest spread gains" [12]. Summary by Sections New Business Cost Analysis - The average new business cost for listed insurance companies has shown a significant decline, with a decrease of 61 basis points quarter-on-quarter and 65 basis points year-on-year [2]. - The report anticipates that as new business continues to flow in, the existing cost may trend downward [2]. Breakeven Yield Metrics - The VIF breakeven yield for major insurance companies is as follows: China Life (2.43%), Ping An (2.51%), China Pacific (2.21%), New China Life (3.00%), China Re (3.39%), and Sunshine Insurance (2.80%) [3][10]. - The NBV breakeven yield for the same companies is: China Life (1.50%), Ping An (1.73%), China Pacific (1.76%), New China Life (2.68%), China Re (2.89%), and Sunshine Insurance (2.30%) [11]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends the following order of preference for investment: China Pacific Insurance, China Life H, China Re H, and Sunshine Insurance H. If the equity market continues to outperform expectations, New China Life H is also recommended; if there are signs of recovery in the real estate sector, Ping An is recommended [12].