保险研究框架："慢牛市"下的戴维斯双击 20260106 摘要 保险行业盈利模式可简化为利差模型，即投资收益减去负债成本率乘以 杠杆或规模，从而得出 ROE 或利润，中长期 ROE 改善逻辑是推荐保险 板块的核心原因。 短期内，保险行业估值主要跟随资产端变化，人身险负债长期积累，新 单对存量影响较小，因此资产端表现对短期估值至关重要。 负债成本下行具有确定性，定价利率持续下调，监管影响渠道费用下降； 多配权益是关键，政策稳定 A 股市场，险资私募、风险因子调降等政策 有助于增配权益。 当前消费和就业信心不足，"存款搬家"现象持续，保险收益率相对存 款和理财产品更具优势，且具有刚兑属性，推动保险规模扩大。 中长期来看，养老保障需求充足，人身险需求持续增长，预计 2026 年 人身险市场规模约为 4.8 万亿，并维持 10%的增速。 大型上市保险公司在投研团队、资源及偿付能力方面具有优势，市场集 中度提升，保费增速及负债增速更快。 利差损风险小，净资产可合理估值；未来利差走阔，存量保单应给予合 理估值。动态测算利差优于静态思维下的一倍 PEV，保险板块估值修复 空间充足。 Q&A 当前保险行业的估值空间如何？中长 ...

截至2025年12月25日 13:41，中证800证券保险指数(399966)强势上涨1.09%，成分股中国平安(601318)上 涨2.81%，中国太保(601601)上涨2.55%，财通证券(601108)上涨2.36%，中国人保(601319)，华安证券 (600909)等个股跟涨。保险证券ETF(515630)上涨1.17%， 冲击3连涨。最新价报1.47元。 3、权益市场增厚净利润：25年至今保险公司权益收益在20%-30%，且随着中长期试点和明年全行业的 oci切换， 预计继续利好险资收益； 4、当前大部分上市公司pev估值为0.5-0.7倍，处于历史40-50%估值区间。 保险证券ETF紧密跟踪中证800证券保险指数，中证800证券保险指数是在中证800指数的基础上，选择 证券保险行业内对应的证券作为指数样本，为投资者提供更多样化的投资标的。 数据显示，截至2025年11月28日，中证800证券保险指数(399966)前十大权重股分别为中国平安 (601318)、东方财富(300059)、中信证券(600030)、国泰海通(601211)、中国太保(601601)、华泰证券 (601688)、中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The insurance sector is experiencing a strong upward trend, driven by regulatory adjustments and positive market expectations for future growth in net premium value (NBV) and profitability. Group 1: Market Performance - The CSI 800 Securities Insurance Index rose by 2.24%, with key stocks such as China Ping An increasing by 5.23% and China Taiping by 4.58% [1] - The Insurance Securities ETF also saw an increase of 2.27%, with the latest price at 1.44 yuan [1] Group 2: Regulatory Changes - The Financial Regulatory Bureau has adjusted risk factors for insurance companies investing in the CSI 300 Index, the CSI Dividend Low Volatility 100 Index, and stocks on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, leading to a more favorable investment environment [1] Group 3: Positive Growth Expectations - Long-term interest rates have stabilized, with the ten-year government bond yield rising to 1.85%, which is beneficial for the growth of insurance companies' net assets and profit reserves [1] - The expected NBV growth for listed insurance companies is around 15% for the full year of 2026, with leading companies projected to achieve over 25% in Q1 due to better penetration through bank insurance channels and high-net-worth individual clients [1] - Insurance companies have seen equity returns between 20% and 30% since the beginning of 2025, with further benefits anticipated from mid-to-long-term pilot programs and the industry-wide OCI switch next year [1] - Current price-to-earnings valuations for most listed companies are between 0.5 and 0.7 times, which is within the historical 40-50% valuation range [1] Group 4: Index Composition - The CSI 800 Securities Insurance Index is based on the CSI 800 Index, selecting relevant securities from the insurance sector, providing diverse investment options [2] - As of November 28, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index account for 63.12% of the total, including major players like China Ping An and CITIC Securities [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" with expectations of exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [24]. Core Insights - The average new business cost for listed insurance companies has decreased by 65 basis points year-on-year as of H1 2025, driven by adjustments in preset interest rates and the integration of individual insurance channels [2][12]. - The VIF breakeven yield for listed insurance companies is estimated to be in the range of 2.21% to 3.39%, while the NBV breakeven yield is between 1.5% and 2.89% [2]. - The report indicates that the quality of liability management in the insurance industry is gradually improving, with a potential slowdown in the speed of convergence of "interest spread gains" [12]. Summary by Sections New Business Cost Analysis - The average new business cost for listed insurance companies has shown a significant decline, with a decrease of 61 basis points quarter-on-quarter and 65 basis points year-on-year [2]. - The report anticipates that as new business continues to flow in, the existing cost may trend downward [2]. Breakeven Yield Metrics - The VIF breakeven yield for major insurance companies is as follows: China Life (2.43%), Ping An (2.51%), China Pacific (2.21%), New China Life (3.00%), China Re (3.39%), and Sunshine Insurance (2.80%) [3][10]. - The NBV breakeven yield for the same companies is: China Life (1.50%), Ping An (1.73%), China Pacific (1.76%), New China Life (2.68%), China Re (2.89%), and Sunshine Insurance (2.30%) [11]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends the following order of preference for investment: China Pacific Insurance, China Life H, China Re H, and Sunshine Insurance H. If the equity market continues to outperform expectations, New China Life H is also recommended; if there are signs of recovery in the real estate sector, Ping An is recommended [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for AIA Group Limited (01299) [2] Core Views - The company reported a year-on-year increase in OPAT of 12% per share, exceeding targets, and announced a new share buyback plan of $1.6 billion [5][6] - The company's NBV growth rate is in line with expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 18% to $4.712 billion [5] - The report highlights a robust performance in investment returns, with total investment assets increasing by 8.2% year-on-year to $255.3 billion [8] Financial Performance Summary - The company achieved a year-on-year increase in OPAT of 7% to $6.605 billion, with a significant rise in net profit attributable to shareholders of 81.6% to $6.836 billion [5][10] - The expected net profit for 2025-2027 is revised upwards to $7.774 billion, $8.434 billion, and $8.949 billion respectively [8] - The report indicates a total investment return of 4.8% for equity assets and 4.3% for fixed income assets, remaining stable year-on-year [8] Market Segment Analysis - In the Hong Kong market, NBV increased by 23% to $1.764 billion, with strong growth in agent and partner distribution channels [11] - In mainland China, NBV grew by 20% to $1.217 billion, supported by the establishment of four new branches [11] - Southeast Asia markets showed positive growth, with Thailand, Singapore, and Malaysia reporting year-on-year increases in NBV of 15%, 15%, and 10% respectively [11]