最近30年在美国和欧洲的寿险行业，关于 保险负债公允价值的讨论 成了热门话题， 研 究者从不同角度提出了各种不同的评估方法，但仍然没有达成共识。本文给出了一个非 常直观和简洁的答案，我认为是一个完美且合理的解决方案，并且也十分灵活实用，可 以满足不同投资者的需求。 第一部分， 受2000年发表在美国SOA杂志上一篇论文的启发， 我们推导出了保险负债 评估的基本定理。 这个定理揭示了寿险公司价值评估和准备金之间的直接关系，本质上 是一个代数恒等式，所以对任何准备金体系和贴现率曲线都成立。 第二部分， 首 先 在 合 理 的 假设 下，我 们证 明 了基 本 定理 中的 MVA 就 是 期 初 会 计 准 备 金。 这个结论非常有意义，根据这个结论，我们从以上的基本定理推导出保险负债公允 价值的评估公式。 第三部分， 我们 从基本定理出发，引伸出MDEV的概念 ，目前中国偿二代下的內含价 值 和 欧 洲 所 流 行 的 MCEV 都 可 视 为 MDEV 的 特 殊 情 景 。 考 虑 到 在 实 际 评 估 工 作 中 的 应 用，我们给出了税后MDEV的基本定理。 第四部分，首先通过两个具体的保险负债例子，讨 ...

低利率时代的重逢 - 中国分红险发展的前世今生 20251231 摘要 分红险作为一种盈余分享和风险共担的产品，通过保证收益加浮动收益 的设计，帮助保险公司控制负债端成本，并与客户共同承担风险，成为 当前市场破局的重要方向。监管对分红特储有明确规定，旨在平衡保险 公司盈利能力与客户利益。 分红主要有现金红利和增额红利两种方式，前者流动性高，后者允许保 险公司进行更长周期的投资和更高风险的资产配置。中国大陆市场在低 利率环境下重新关注分红险，借鉴海外经验，探索创新模式以满足多样 化需求。 评估分红保险保单收益水平的关键指标包括保证收益（预定利率上限分 红险为 1.75%），演示利率（监管限制最高 4.5%），实际收益率（大 公司上限 3.1%）和红利实现率（反映浮动收益兑现程度）。 分红账户相比传统账户具有更高风险偏好，权益类资产配置比例更高 （约 40% vs 10%），且可以通过 TPL 方式持有权益投资，降低报表波 动性。新会计准则下，投资波动由 CSM 吸收，使得每年度投资业绩趋近 于零，财务状况更加稳定。 Q&A 为什么在当前低利率环境下，分红险成为寿险公司关注的重点？ 在低利率环境下，寿险公司面临经 ...

来源：险企观察 2025年11月5日，幸福人寿迎来了成立18周年的纪念日。这家以"幸福"为名的寿险企业，从2007年在北 京远洋大厦起步，总资产从零增长到超1300亿元。 2025年上半年，公司实现净利润4.13亿元，已超2024年全年水平。然而亮眼的业绩背后，偿付能力充足 率却在行业垫底徘徊，核心偿付能力充足率一度低至86.98%，位列行业倒数第四。 经营业绩：表面增长下的结构隐忧 2025年上半年，幸福人寿的财务数据呈现出矛盾的图景。官方数据显示，公司实现保险业务收入139.25 亿元，净利润达4.13亿元。特别是2025年第二季度，单季净利润达到4.68亿元。 然而，这种增长背后隐藏着结构性问题。2025年第一季度，公司曾净亏损0.56亿元，业绩波动剧烈。 从产品结构看，幸福人寿的保费收入呈现出明显的"一强多弱"格局。传统寿险保费规模达118.17亿元， 占2025年上半年总保费的84.9%。被视为行业转型方向的分红险仅实现13.49亿元保费，占比9.7%，且同 比降幅达13.58%。 这并非孤立事件。2025年以来，幸福人寿在多地分支机构接连收到监管罚单： 这表明公司产品结构调整困难，过度依赖增额终身 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the insurance sector [2] Core Insights - The insurance sector has seen improvements on both asset and liability sides, with valuations and public fund holdings still at low levels. The asset side has been the main driver of the sector's performance in 2024, significantly influenced by the stock market. The fundamentals of the sector are improving, with expectations for steady profit growth in Q3 due to a strong stock market and stable long-term interest rates. The sector's valuation remains attractive compared to historical levels, and the overall new business value (NBV) is expected to maintain a rapid growth rate [2][5][11]. Summary by Sections Historical Performance - Since the listing of insurance stocks in 2007, the insurance index has increased by 165%, outperforming the market by 55%. Notably, in years like 2014, 2017, 2022, and 2024, the sector achieved over 20% excess returns [5][11][12]. Catalysts for Insurance Stock Performance - The three main factors influencing insurance stock performance are stock market trends, long-term interest rates, and liability performance. The correlation between the insurance index and the stock market is strong, with bull markets acting as key catalysts for insurance stock performance. Long-term interest rates significantly impact the insurance companies' profit margins and product sales, while liability performance is assessed through new business premiums and NBV [5][16][19]. Historical Market Trends - The report identifies five significant market trends for the insurance sector since 2014, highlighting the importance of stock market performance, interest rate movements, and liability improvements in driving excess returns. For instance, the 2014-2015 period was characterized by a bull market and high growth in the liability side, while the 2017 period saw a combination of rising interest rates and value transformation leading to significant excess returns [5][42][45]. Current Investment Value - The report indicates that insurance stocks have shown significant excess returns since 2024, with a notable narrowing of the A-H share price gap. Future catalysts for upward price movement in the insurance sector are anticipated [5][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the insurance industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The insurance industry has seen a cumulative premium income of CNY 47,999 billion as of the end of August 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.63%, with the growth rate expanding for five consecutive months [2] - The growth in premium income is driven by savings-type insurance products, particularly dividend insurance, which has led to a continuous recovery in the industry's premium growth [2][17] - The adjustment of the predetermined interest rates for traditional, dividend, and universal insurance products to 2.0%, 1.75%, and 1.0% respectively has catalyzed a short-term increase in premium income due to "buying before suspension" behavior [2][17] - The attractiveness of traditional insurance products is expected to decline as predetermined interest rates decrease, making dividend insurance a core product in a low-interest-rate environment [2][17] Summary by Sections Premium Income Overview - As of August 2025, the life insurance sector achieved a cumulative premium income of CNY 37,999 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 11.32%, and a monthly growth rate of 47.24% [3] - The breakdown of premium income shows that life insurance, health insurance, and personal accident insurance generated CNY 29,746 billion, CNY 5,784 billion, and CNY 268 billion respectively, with year-on-year changes of +14.05%, -22.07%, and -57.57% [3] Predetermined Interest Rate Adjustments - The predetermined interest rates for various insurance products have been adjusted, with the current rates being 2.0% for ordinary products, 1.75% for dividend insurance, and 1.0% for universal insurance, reflecting a reduction of 50 basis points, 25 basis points, and 50 basis points respectively [6][7] - The downward adjustment of predetermined interest rates is expected to support the expansion of premium income in the short term and improve the liability side of insurance companies [7] Product Dynamics - Dividend insurance is characterized by a "low guaranteed return + high floating return" structure, which allows insurance companies to share investment risks with policyholders, thereby reducing rigid repayment costs [12] - The demand for dividend insurance is anticipated to grow, especially in the context of declining returns from wealth management tools, making it a core choice for yield-driven clients [12] Property Insurance Performance - As of August 2025, property insurance companies reported a total premium income of CNY 12,201 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 4.67%, and the non-auto insurance segment showing a growth rate of 5.0% [14]

Core Viewpoint - Hengqin Life Insurance Co., Ltd. reported a significant increase in net losses for the first half of 2025, amounting to 839 million yuan, which is 139% higher than the same period last year, indicating severe financial distress and operational challenges [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company's insurance business revenue decreased by 22.85% year-on-year to 4.39 billion yuan [1]. - The premium income from the main product, dividend insurance, plummeted by 89.5%, dropping from 620 million yuan to 65 million yuan compared to the previous year [1]. - Hengqin Life's net cash flow from operating activities was -970 million yuan, with a significant cash flow gap of -3.3 billion yuan in the dividend account business [1]. Losses and Trends - The net loss of 839 million yuan in the first half of 2025 surpassed the total loss of 564 million yuan for the entire year of 2024, solidifying its position as the "loss king" among non-listed life insurance companies [1]. - Traditional life insurance, which accounts for over 80% of the business, experienced a negative growth of 15.8% [1]. Historical Context - Hengqin Life was established in December 2016 and faced losses for its first four years, only achieving profitability in 2020 and 2021 with net profits of 59 million yuan and 11 million yuan, respectively [2]. - From 2022 to 2024, the company returned to a state of net losses, accumulating a total loss of 1.79 billion yuan, 772 million yuan, and 564 million yuan over three years, totaling 1.515 billion yuan [2]. Governance and Management Changes - The company is undergoing significant governance restructuring, with recent capital injections from Zhuhai State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, increasing its stake to 49% [2]. - The management team has seen continuous changes, with the current chairman, Qian Zhonghua, attempting to reverse the losses but facing challenges as the company lost over 1 billion yuan in one year [3]. - Hengqin Life is actively seeking to optimize its equity structure, with ongoing efforts to recruit potential investors for its shares held by Zhongzhi Group, which is undergoing bankruptcy proceedings [3].

Core Viewpoint - Hengqin Life Insurance is facing its most severe operational crisis since its establishment, with significant financial losses and management turmoil threatening its future viability [2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Hengqin Life Insurance reported a net loss of 839 million yuan, a 139% increase compared to the same period last year, and exceeding the total loss of 564 million yuan for the entire year of 2024 [3][4]. - Insurance business revenue fell by over 22%, totaling 4.39 billion yuan, with the main product, dividend insurance, experiencing a staggering 89.5% drop in premium income, from 620 million yuan to 65 million yuan [3]. - The company's operating cash flow was negative 970 million yuan, with a significant cash flow deficit of 3.3 billion yuan in the dividend account business, reflecting ongoing financial distress [3]. Group 2: Management Turmoil - Since 2024, Hengqin Life Insurance has undergone significant management changes, with five key executives, including the founding chairman, leaving or being dismissed, resulting in a reduction of over 40% in team size [5]. - The frequent turnover in the executive team has led to strategic disarray, with key positions being filled by individuals with strong ties to the major shareholder, indicating a shift towards tighter control by the shareholder [5]. Group 3: Shareholder Challenges - The major shareholder, Zhuhai Huafa Group, is also facing its own financial difficulties, which complicates Hengqin Life Insurance's prospects for support [6][8]. - As of the end of 2024, Huafa Group had interest-bearing debts totaling 349.155 billion yuan, with nearly 60% of this from financial institution borrowings, limiting its ability to provide further assistance to Hengqin Life Insurance [8].

Group 1 - Ping An Life is relocating part of its employees from Shanghai to Shenzhen to align its main office location with its registered address, enhancing management and team collaboration efficiency [2][4] - The company is optimizing its product and channel strategies, with some health insurance products being withdrawn from Ping An Life's sales channels, marking the beginning of a self-operated medical insurance era [3][4] - Ping An Life will now recommend its own "e Sheng Bao" series of medical insurance products, previously sold under Ping An Health Insurance [3] Group 2 - Ping An Health Insurance's individual pension business will be transferred to Ping An Life, ceasing sales of certain short-term combination products by July 1, 2025, while existing policyholders' rights will remain unaffected [4][6] - The adjustments are in response to new regulations from the National Financial Regulatory Administration, which mandates the cessation of short-term health insurance products [6]

Core Viewpoint - Recent changes in the office locations of Ping An Life Insurance employees and adjustments in product and channel strategies have attracted market attention, indicating a shift in operational focus and compliance with regulatory requirements [3][4]. Group 1: Office Relocation - Following the relocation of some Ping An Bank employees from Shanghai to Shenzhen last year, Ping An Life Insurance has announced that part of its Shanghai headquarters staff will also move to Shenzhen [3]. - The company stated that this move aligns with legal requirements and aims to enhance management and team collaboration efficiency, supporting business transformation [3]. - Employees from the Shanghai headquarters' functional departments are required to return to the Shenzhen headquarters, while those from the Shanghai branch are exempt from this requirement [3]. Group 2: Product and Channel Optimization - Ping An Life Insurance is optimizing its product offerings and sales channels among its subsidiaries, including Ping An Health Insurance and Ping An Pension Insurance [4]. - Certain health insurance products will be removed from Ping An Life's sales channels, and the "e行销" platform will no longer offer specific medical insurance products, marking the beginning of a self-operated medical insurance era for Ping An Life [5]. - Ping An Life primarily focuses on traditional life insurance, annuities, dividend insurance, and universal life products, while Ping An Health Insurance specializes in medical and disease insurance [5]. Group 3: Pension Insurance Adjustments - Starting from July 2025, Ping An Pension Insurance will transfer its individual pension business to Ping An Life Insurance, ceasing the sale of certain short-term combination products [5][6]. - Customers have been notified that their existing pension policies will not be affected, but they will need to consult Ping An Life for any future insurance service needs [6]. - This transition is in response to new regulations from the National Financial Regulatory Administration, which mandates the discontinuation of short-term health insurance products [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the financial struggles of Hengqin Life Insurance, which reported a net loss of 839 million yuan, making it the largest loss among non-listed insurance companies, amidst a generally profitable environment for the industry [4][5]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, 147 non-listed life insurance companies collectively achieved a net profit exceeding 29 billion yuan, significantly up from less than 10 billion yuan in the same period of 2024 [5]. - The number of loss-making insurance companies decreased from 30 to 21, with Hengqin Life Insurance being the most significant loser [5]. Company Structure and Governance - Hengqin Life Insurance was established in 2016 with a unique equal shareholding structure among five shareholders, each holding 20% [5]. - The shift in shareholder dynamics, particularly after the bankruptcy of the Zhongzhi Group, has led to a concentration of ownership, with Zhuhai Huachuang increasing its stake to 49% [12]. - This change has altered the governance structure from a management-led approach to a shareholder-driven model, impacting the company's strategic autonomy [12][16]. Management Changes and Strategic Shifts - After the appointment of Lan Yadong as chairman, the company focused on online insurance and reduced prices for critical illness insurance to enhance competitiveness [7][9]. - Following the shift in shareholder structure, Lan Yadong resigned, and a new management team emphasizing traditional life insurance was appointed, indicating a strategic pivot from innovation to stability [12][16]. Investment and Financial Constraints - The new management faces pressure to align with the interests of the dominant shareholder, which may limit the company's investment flexibility and ability to diversify its asset allocation [13][16]. - The requirement for capital to be directed towards specific projects of the parent company could exacerbate financial volatility, especially in a declining interest rate environment [13][14]. Comparative Analysis - Compared to leading non-listed insurance companies like Taikang Life and Zhongyou Insurance, which reported net profits of 15.998 billion yuan and 5.177 billion yuan respectively, Hengqin Life's financial struggles are pronounced [15]. - The article suggests that the governance changes and capital constraints faced by Hengqin Life Insurance may hinder its recovery and profitability compared to more stable peers [15][16]. Conclusion - The case of Hengqin Life Insurance reflects broader challenges faced by small and medium-sized insurance companies in adapting to governance and market changes in the current economic cycle [17].