Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [9] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [10] Core Viewpoints - The Fed's interest rate meeting maintained the interest rate level, but there are still differences within the Fed regarding the future interest rate path. If there are no significant changes in interest rates and inflation, the consolidation period of gold may be extended. It is recommended to buy gold on dips in the range of 750 yuan/gram - 762 yuan/gram [9]. - The trend of silver is generally similar to that of gold. In the long run, there is a need to repair the gold-silver ratio. If the tariff situation eases and risk sentiment rises, silver may outperform gold. However, the non - implementation of the 50% tariff on refined copper may drag down silver prices. It is recommended to buy silver on dips in the range of 8900 yuan/kg - 8950 yuan/kg [9][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Policy News - Trump signed an executive order to modify reciprocal tariff rates for certain countries. Countries not listed in Annex I will be imposed a 10% tariff, and the tariff on Canada will be raised from 25% to 35% effective August 1, 2025. Goods transshipped to avoid the 35% Canadian tariff will be subject to a 40% transshipment tariff. US Treasury Secretary Besent said that the nomination for the Fed chairman is expected to be announced by the end of the year, and there will be two vacancies on the Fed Board. Trump also said that appointing Powell as Fed chairman was a mistake [2] Futures Market - On July 31, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 771.30 yuan/gram and closed at 770.28 yuan/gram, down 0.45% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The overnight session closed at 770.92 yuan/gram, up 0.12% from the afternoon session. The Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 9,145.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9,008.00 yuan/kg, down 2.00% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,100,640 lots, and the open interest was 371,110 lots. The overnight session closed at 8,935 yuan/kg, down 1.37% from the afternoon session [3] US Treasury Yields - On July 31, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.38%, up 0.04% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury yields was 3%, down 1 basis point from the previous trading day [4] Position and Volume Changes - On July 31, 2025, in the Au2508 contract, long positions decreased by 2,312 lots, and short positions decreased by 1,280 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Gold contracts was 324,304 lots, up 27.56% from the previous trading day. In the Ag2508 contract, long positions decreased by 9,760 lots, and short positions decreased by 6,881 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 1,394,017 lots, up 65.29% from the previous trading day [5] ETF Holdings - On the previous trading day, the gold ETF holdings were 954.51 tons, down 0.86 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 15,062.32 tons, down 87.58 tons from the previous trading day [6] Arbitrage Tracking - On July 31, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 5.91 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 443.13 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main contract prices of gold and silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 85.51, up 1.58% from the previous trading day, and the ratio of foreign gold and silver prices was 87.86, up 0.70% from the previous trading day [7] Fundamental Data - On July 31, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 32,458 kg, up 23.61% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 675,762 kg, up 139.90% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 9,836 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 70,050 kg [8]

Group 1 - Russian investment envoy Kirill Dmitriev indicated that Russia, the U.S., and Saudi Arabia could take joint action to stabilize the oil market if necessary, referencing a precedent from 2020 when leaders collaborated to cut production amid a price crash due to the pandemic [1] - The recent escalation of conflict in the Middle East, particularly Israel's attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, has led to a surge in oil prices, with market dynamics determining the severity of this increase [1] - The geopolitical risk premium in oil prices is currently estimated at around $10 per barrel, which is considered reasonable given the potential for broader disruptions and reduced Iranian supply [2] Group 2 - Iran, as the third-largest producer in OPEC, extracts approximately 3.3 million barrels of oil daily, with significant concerns about potential disruptions to trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz, where about 19 million barrels of oil and products are transported daily [3] - The U.S. Federal Reserve maintained interest rates but is expected to implement two rate cuts by the end of the year, which could stimulate economic activity and subsequently increase oil demand, although this may also exacerbate inflation [4]