在铜价从2025年11月底不足11,000美元/吨一路拉升、并于1月6日触及13,387.50美元/吨的历史高位后，这家华 尔街金融巨头不得不重新校准短期路径：高盛将2026年上半年铜价预测从11,525美元/吨显著上调至12,750美 元/吨，理由是"稀缺溢价"与囤货性质正在被市场重新定价——尤其是美国以外地区(ex-US)库存覆盖不足所带 来的大宗商品市场紧张感。然而，高盛同时强调称，13,000美元/吨以上难以长期维持，并维持其2026年四季 度11,200美元/吨的LME铜价谨慎看跌预测不变。 全球铜价基准——LME期铜价格，似乎已开始高位震荡态势，伦敦金属交易所(LME)三个月期铜价格在周四 一度下跌1.5%至每吨12702美元。该合约曾在本周二触及每吨13,387.50美元的历史高点。面对从11月到206年1 月6日高达30%的这一涨势，高盛的分析师们认为，LME铜期货交易价格已经超出了其认为的约11,400美元/ 吨的公允基本面水平。 智通财经APP获悉，当大宗商品市场还在为铜价屡创历史新高点位欢呼时，华尔街金融巨头高盛先给多头递 上了一颗"糖"，紧接着又抛出一盆"冷水"。在高盛看来，铜价短期被 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [9] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [10] Core Viewpoints - The Fed's interest rate meeting maintained the interest rate level, but there are still differences within the Fed regarding the future interest rate path. If there are no significant changes in interest rates and inflation, the consolidation period of gold may be extended. It is recommended to buy gold on dips in the range of 750 yuan/gram - 762 yuan/gram [9]. - The trend of silver is generally similar to that of gold. In the long run, there is a need to repair the gold-silver ratio. If the tariff situation eases and risk sentiment rises, silver may outperform gold. However, the non - implementation of the 50% tariff on refined copper may drag down silver prices. It is recommended to buy silver on dips in the range of 8900 yuan/kg - 8950 yuan/kg [9][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Policy News - Trump signed an executive order to modify reciprocal tariff rates for certain countries. Countries not listed in Annex I will be imposed a 10% tariff, and the tariff on Canada will be raised from 25% to 35% effective August 1, 2025. Goods transshipped to avoid the 35% Canadian tariff will be subject to a 40% transshipment tariff. US Treasury Secretary Besent said that the nomination for the Fed chairman is expected to be announced by the end of the year, and there will be two vacancies on the Fed Board. Trump also said that appointing Powell as Fed chairman was a mistake [2] Futures Market - On July 31, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 771.30 yuan/gram and closed at 770.28 yuan/gram, down 0.45% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The overnight session closed at 770.92 yuan/gram, up 0.12% from the afternoon session. The Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 9,145.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9,008.00 yuan/kg, down 2.00% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,100,640 lots, and the open interest was 371,110 lots. The overnight session closed at 8,935 yuan/kg, down 1.37% from the afternoon session [3] US Treasury Yields - On July 31, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.38%, up 0.04% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury yields was 3%, down 1 basis point from the previous trading day [4] Position and Volume Changes - On July 31, 2025, in the Au2508 contract, long positions decreased by 2,312 lots, and short positions decreased by 1,280 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Gold contracts was 324,304 lots, up 27.56% from the previous trading day. In the Ag2508 contract, long positions decreased by 9,760 lots, and short positions decreased by 6,881 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 1,394,017 lots, up 65.29% from the previous trading day [5] ETF Holdings - On the previous trading day, the gold ETF holdings were 954.51 tons, down 0.86 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 15,062.32 tons, down 87.58 tons from the previous trading day [6] Arbitrage Tracking - On July 31, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 5.91 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 443.13 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main contract prices of gold and silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 85.51, up 1.58% from the previous trading day, and the ratio of foreign gold and silver prices was 87.86, up 0.70% from the previous trading day [7] Fundamental Data - On July 31, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 32,458 kg, up 23.61% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 675,762 kg, up 139.90% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 9,836 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 70,050 kg [8]