Crypto markets are off to a positive start in what in the past has been their strongest quarter of the year, with bitcoin (BTC) rising nearly 4% over the past 24 hours to $117,400. Already higher overnight, crypto prices rose further early in the U.S. session as fresh economic data suggested September's Federal Reserve rate cut won't be nearly the last this year. Private payrolls saw their largest decline in 2.5 years in September as companies in the private sector lost 32,000 jobs according to a fresh ...

Group 1 - The market anticipates a 95.5% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with a 4.5% chance of a 50 basis point cut, and no probability for maintaining or increasing rates [1] - There are two main viewpoints on why the market is optimistic about a rate cut: one suggests pressure from President Trump is a key factor, while the other argues that the Federal Reserve operates as a collective decision-making body, independent of Trump's influence [2][3] - Trump's economic policy aims to increase government spending while minimizing taxes, which necessitates lower interest rates to manage the cost of new debt issuance [4][8] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve has not cut rates this year due to concerns about inflation and unemployment, but current economic conditions suggest that a rate cut is warranted [5][6] - The expected pace of rate cuts will depend on inflation trends; if inflation remains stable, the Fed may implement cuts of 50 basis points each quarter, while any signs of inflation rebound could lead to smaller cuts [7][8] - The potential appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair next year could shift the balance towards a more dovish stance, possibly accelerating the pace of rate cuts [8]

Group 1 - The Australian housing market is experiencing a rapid recovery, with nearly three-quarters of auction properties successfully sold, driven by two interest rate cuts this year and expectations for a third cut [1][3] - The preliminary auction clearance rate reached 73.1%, with rates consistently above 70% for the past four weeks and eight out of the last ten weeks [1][3] - Sydney and Melbourne have seen a return to price increases after a brief dip, with both cities recording a 1.1% rise in property prices over the last quarter [3] Group 2 - High-end properties are also reflecting the market's heat, with a waterfront apartment in Abbotsford, Sydney, selling for AUD 6.385 million, exceeding the seller's expectation of AUD 6 million, setting a new record for the area [3][4] - The overall market is showing increased activity, with more buyers willing to bid compared to earlier this year, indicating growing confidence in the market [4] - Preliminary auction clearance rates for major cities are as follows: Sydney at 72.5%, Melbourne at 75.5%, Brisbane at 70.8%, Adelaide at 65.7%, and the Australian Capital Territory at 73.1% [4]