Market Overview - Crypto markets are experiencing a positive start, with Bitcoin (BTC) rising nearly 4% to $117,400, marking a strong quarter historically for the sector [1] - Altcoins such as Ether (ETH), Solana (SOL), and Dogecoin (DOGE) have gained 5%-7% in the past 24 hours, outperforming Bitcoin [4] Economic Indicators - Private payrolls in September saw a decline of 32,000 jobs, the largest drop in 2.5 years, with previous gains revised to a loss of 3,000 jobs [2] - The ISM September Manufacturing PMI Survey reported a stable index at 49.1, while the Prices Paid index decreased to 61.9 from 63.7 in August, indicating easing inflation [3] Federal Reserve Expectations - Market participants anticipate further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, with a 99% probability of a 25 basis point cut in the upcoming October meeting, an increase from 92% the previous week [4] - The expectation of interest rate easing is seen as a macro tailwind for the crypto market, potentially signaling the start of a bull market [6] Investment Trends - September was a surprisingly strong month for Bitcoin, gaining about 6%, with significant inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs totaling $950 million in the last two days of the month [5] - The upcoming quarter is expected to initiate an "alt-season," shifting investor focus from major cryptocurrencies to smaller, more volatile tokens [7]

Group 1 - The market anticipates a 95.5% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with a 4.5% chance of a 50 basis point cut, and no probability for maintaining or increasing rates [1] - There are two main viewpoints on why the market is optimistic about a rate cut: one suggests pressure from President Trump is a key factor, while the other argues that the Federal Reserve operates as a collective decision-making body, independent of Trump's influence [2][3] - Trump's economic policy aims to increase government spending while minimizing taxes, which necessitates lower interest rates to manage the cost of new debt issuance [4][8] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve has not cut rates this year due to concerns about inflation and unemployment, but current economic conditions suggest that a rate cut is warranted [5][6] - The expected pace of rate cuts will depend on inflation trends; if inflation remains stable, the Fed may implement cuts of 50 basis points each quarter, while any signs of inflation rebound could lead to smaller cuts [7][8] - The potential appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair next year could shift the balance towards a more dovish stance, possibly accelerating the pace of rate cuts [8]

Group 1 - The Australian housing market is experiencing a rapid recovery, with nearly three-quarters of auction properties successfully sold, driven by two interest rate cuts this year and expectations for a third cut [1][3] - The preliminary auction clearance rate reached 73.1%, with rates consistently above 70% for the past four weeks and eight out of the last ten weeks [1][3] - Sydney and Melbourne have seen a return to price increases after a brief dip, with both cities recording a 1.1% rise in property prices over the last quarter [3] Group 2 - High-end properties are also reflecting the market's heat, with a waterfront apartment in Abbotsford, Sydney, selling for AUD 6.385 million, exceeding the seller's expectation of AUD 6 million, setting a new record for the area [3][4] - The overall market is showing increased activity, with more buyers willing to bid compared to earlier this year, indicating growing confidence in the market [4] - Preliminary auction clearance rates for major cities are as follows: Sydney at 72.5%, Melbourne at 75.5%, Brisbane at 70.8%, Adelaide at 65.7%, and the Australian Capital Territory at 73.1% [4]