Schiavone的分析显示，当前主要股指仍稳稳站在所有关键移动平均线上方，市场尚未出现需要转向风 险规避的明确信号或催化剂。他表示，当下的策略是"在市场风向改变前，继续追逐风险"。 投资者情绪和头寸状况成为反向的潜在能量，近期的普遍担忧导致许多投资者处于低配状态，而这种担 忧本身可能在市场反转时成为推动上涨的"燃料"。 这一观点也得到了市场流动性状况的支持。Schiavone指出，投资者手中握有高额现金，数万亿美元资 金停泊在货币市场，这意味着潜在买家仍在排队入场，这种缓慢的买家扩张构成了市场的持续利好。 他将当前市场与2010年至2011年的情形进行类比，当时在第一轮量化宽松（QE1）之后，标普500指数 因流动性充裕而在不到一年内上涨了30%，无视疲弱的宏观数据，因为流动性压倒了基本面因素。 流动性压倒基本面，历史重演？ 高盛资深宏观交易员Paolo Schiavone在其最新研报中指出，尽管全球债券市场出现了一些趋势性变化， 但风险资产并未显示出转向避险的信号。他认为，一个"不断扩大的买家宇宙"正在为市场提供支撑，在 流动性压倒基本面的背景下，追逐风险仍是当前的主导策略。 关注"四大资产负债表" 从更 ...

Crypto markets are off to a positive start in what in the past has been their strongest quarter of the year, with bitcoin (BTC) rising nearly 4% over the past 24 hours to $117,400. Already higher overnight, crypto prices rose further early in the U.S. session as fresh economic data suggested September's Federal Reserve rate cut won't be nearly the last this year. Private payrolls saw their largest decline in 2.5 years in September as companies in the private sector lost 32,000 jobs according to a fresh ...

Economic Outlook - A top European strategist predicts that gold prices will reach $4,000 per ounce and silver prices will hit $50 per ounce within the next 3 to 6 months due to a rapidly weakening U.S. economy, which will compel the Federal Reserve to take aggressive actions [1][2] - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of significant weakness, with a downward revision of 910,000 jobs in annual employment growth data, indicating a slowdown in the economy [2][3] Political Landscape - The political foundation in Europe is also under strain, highlighted by the recent collapse of the French government, which was triggered by a failed confidence vote [3] - The crisis in France is linked to attempts to control rising debt, with the country’s debt increasing by €5,000 per second [3] Inflation and Wealth Transfer - The current political realities suggest that governments may resort to maintaining inflation at 3% to 4%, which could lead to a 50% loss in purchasing power for cash holders over ten years [4] - This period is expected to witness a significant transfer of wealth, with some individuals losing wealth while others accumulate it [4] Precious Metals and Mining Sector - The strategist believes that precious metals and their producing companies are poised for explosive growth, with gold prices nearing a historical high of $3,680 per ounce [5] - Silver is viewed as undervalued, and if it surpasses $50 per ounce, it could potentially rise to $100, with significant price increases expected in the event of shortages [5] - The mining sector is beginning to react, as evidenced by a $53 billion merger between Anglo American and Teck Resources, signaling the start of a merger cycle in the industry [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential risks stemming from the U.S. non-farm employment data and critiques the Federal Reserve's monetary policy as a root cause of high inflation, wealth disparity, and uncontrollable debt risks, suggesting a need for a policy framework adjustment [1][2]. Group 1: Critique of the Federal Reserve - U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra criticizes the Federal Reserve for serving political demands, which he believes undermines its independence and credibility [2][4]. - Becerra emphasizes the need for the Federal Reserve to return to its three statutory missions: maximizing employment, stabilizing prices, and maintaining moderate long-term interest rates, highlighting the importance of the third mission [5]. Group 2: Long-term Interest Rates - Becerra's focus on long-term interest rates, particularly U.S. Treasury yields, is crucial as he aims to ensure economic responsibility amid rising debt levels [6]. - The current high-interest environment poses challenges for funding government spending, with 15% of annual U.S. fiscal expenditures allocated to interest payments, which has increased significantly since the onset of the rate hike cycle in 2022 [8]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Risks - Recent non-farm employment data indicates a significant drop in job creation, with actual figures at 22,000 compared to an expected 75,000, raising concerns about a potential economic recession [8][10]. - The upcoming revision of non-farm employment data is expected to show a downward adjustment of 800,000 jobs, suggesting that the U.S. economy is on the brink of collapse [10]. Group 4: Potential Policy Actions - Becerra expresses urgency for lowering long-term interest rates, as the transmission of Federal Reserve rate cuts primarily affects short-term yields, while long-term rates are influenced by market dynamics and perceptions of U.S. debt stability [11]. - The article discusses the potential for the Federal Reserve to adopt yield curve control strategies similar to Japan's, which could alleviate interest pressure on government debt but may lead to market distortions and reduced foreign investment [13]. Group 5: Global Implications - The article warns that any new round of fiscal expansion in the U.S. could exacerbate debt risks and undermine market trust, potentially leading to a global debt crisis [15]. - The current economic environment in the U.S. differs from Japan's past experience, as the U.S. faces inflation rather than deflation, indicating that high inflation could precede a debt crisis [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report systematically analyzes the key stages of the Bank of Japan's bond - buying policy from its inception to the present, exploring the macro - economic background, policy goals, and evolution of bond - buying methods at each stage, and focusing on its impact on the direction, shape, and liquidity of the Japanese bond market's yield curve. The Bank of Japan's bond - buying behavior has evolved from a traditional tool for increasing money supply to a core and controversial means in global monetary policy operations [17]. Summary by Stages First Stage (1960s - 1980s): The Germination of Traditional Tools - **Macro - background and Policy Goals**: In the context of financial liberalization, facing issues such as international payment emergencies and domestic credit out - of - control, the Bank of Japan aimed to adjust money supply and smooth short - term liquidity fluctuations through open - market operations [18][19]. - **Bond - buying Method**: Initially, it mainly bought securities in the secondary market through open - market operations. After the expansion of the government bond market, it included long - term government bonds in open - market operations, with purchases starting one year after bond issuance. Sales operations also began in 1972 [20][21]. - **Impact on the Bond Market**: The bond trading of the Bank of Japan had an insignificant impact on the overall level and curve shape of government bond yields. Market interest rates were mainly determined by the official discount rate, strict financial control systems, and economic cycle changes such as the oil crisis [24]. Second Stage (1990 - 2000): Exploration after "Zero - Interest Rate" - **Macro - background and Policy Goals**: After the burst of the Japanese asset - price bubble in the 1990s, the economy entered the "Lost Decade." With the exhaustion of traditional interest - rate reduction space, the Bank of Japan gradually increased bond purchases to create a continuously loose monetary policy environment [27][30]. - **Bond - buying Method**: Besides reducing interest rates, it significantly increased bond - buying volume in the open market. In 1999, it introduced direct purchases of short - term treasury bills and government short - term securities [30][31]. - **Impact on the Bond Market**: Japanese government bond yields entered a long - term downward channel due to economic recession, deflation expectations, and continuous interest - rate cuts. The Bank of Japan's bond - buying behavior strengthened this trend, and this exploration accumulated experience for subsequent quantitative easing policies [32]. Third Stage (2001 - 2012): The First Appearance and Repeated Use of Quantitative Easing (QE) - **Macro - background and Policy Goals**: To counter the impact of the 2001 Internet bubble burst on the global economy and address economic recession and deflation pressure in Japan, the Bank of Japan adjusted its monetary policy framework and launched QE [37][38]. - **Bond - buying Method**: During the QE launch (2001 - 2005), it increased commercial bank reserve balances and promised to continue QE until the core CPI year - on - year growth rate stabilized above 0%. It also increased long - term government bond purchases multiple times. QE was briefly withdrawn in 2006 but restarted in 2008, with an expansion of the bond - buying scale and asset scope [39][41][42]. - **Impact on the Bond Market**: During the first QE period, long - term government bond yields initially declined rapidly but rebounded in 2003. After the QE restart in 2008, yields declined significantly again. Overall, the QE policy increased government bond demand, but it did not necessarily drive yields down continuously in the short term [45]. Fourth Stage (2013 - 2016): The Shock of "Quantitative and Qualitative Easing" (QQE) - **Macro - background and Policy Goals**: Under the framework of "Abenomics," QQE aimed to reverse deep - rooted deflation expectations and achieve a 2% inflation target within two years [49][50]. - **Bond - buying Method**: Compared with the QE period, QQE significantly increased the scale, variety, and duration of bond purchases. The annual government bond purchase amount increased from 50 trillion yen to 80 trillion yen, the average remaining maturity of purchased bonds was extended, and the purchase of risk assets such as ETFs and J - REITs was increased [51]. - **Impact on the Bond Market**: QQE quickly pushed Japanese medium - and long - term government bond yields to historical lows, flattening the yield curve. The Bank of Japan became the dominant buyer in the bond market, which led to a decline in secondary - market trading activity and impaired the price - discovery function of the government bond market [57]. Fifth Stage (2016 - 2023): The Fine - Tuning of Yield Curve Control (YCC) - **Macro - background and Policy Goals**: To address the side - effects of QQE, such as financial institution profit damage and policy sustainability issues, the Bank of Japan introduced the YCC framework to improve the flexibility and sustainability of monetary policy [60][61]. - **Bond - buying Method**: The YCC framework targeted a short - term policy rate of - 0.1% and a 10 - year government bond yield of around 0% with a fluctuation range of ±0.1%. The Bank of Japan would adjust bond - buying volume flexibly according to market conditions. The fluctuation range was gradually relaxed over time [62]. - **Impact on the Bond Market**: As the YCC fluctuation range widened, the fluctuation range of the 10 - year government bond yield increased, and the yield level gradually rose. The YCC policy achieved precise control over the 10 - year government bond yield, but the bond market lost some of its market - pricing function [68]. Sixth Stage (2024 - Present): Saying Goodbye to Unconventional Policies and Moving towards Normalization - **Macro - background and Policy Goals**: After the COVID - 19 pandemic, due to factors such as rising global commodity prices, yen depreciation, and wage increases, Japan's core CPI remained above 2%, providing conditions for the Bank of Japan to exit ultra - loose policies [71]. - **Bond - buying Method**: In March 2024, the Bank of Japan ended negative interest rates, exited the YCC policy, and stopped buying risk assets while maintaining government bond purchases. In July 2024, it announced a plan to gradually reduce bond - buying volume, with a slowdown in the reduction rate announced in June 2025 [73][74]. - **Impact on the Bond Market**: As the Bank of Japan's monetary policy returned to normal, government bond yields rose rapidly. The Bank of Japan's role changed from the "biggest buyer" to a "gradual seller," posing challenges to the market [80]. Overall Summary The Bank of Japan's bond - buying tools have evolved from simple liquidity adjustment to QE (emphasizing "quantity"), QQE (emphasizing "quantity" and "quality"), and YCC (emphasizing "price"), reflecting continuous innovation and adaptation to achieve monetary policy goals in different economic environments. The impact of QE on long - term government bond yields was not always one - way, while later QQE and YCC policies made the Bank of Japan a dominant participant in the bond market, with a more direct impact on bond market liquidity and yields [83][84].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for unconventional measures by the U.S. government to lower long-term interest rates, which may be underestimated by the market consensus that primarily anticipates a reduction in short-term rates due to Federal Reserve rate cuts [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Expectations and Government Actions - The prevailing market expectation is that even if the Federal Reserve initiates rate cuts, it will primarily lower short-term rates while long-term rates may rise due to inflation concerns [2][5]. - Peter Tchir argues that investors may not fully appreciate the government's commitment to lowering rates, which could include unconventional measures beyond traditional monetary policy [2][3]. - Potential unconventional measures could involve adjustments to the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, changes in inflation data reporting, and even re-evaluating gold reserves to achieve lower long-term rates [2][12]. Group 2: Economic Data and Rate Cuts - The article suggests that if there is sufficient economic data supporting significant rate cuts, market fears regarding long-term rates may not materialize [5][6]. - Tchir highlights that signs of economic weakness were evident before officials expressed disagreement over rate cuts, indicating that the rationale for lowering rates may be stronger than reflected in meeting minutes [5][6]. Group 3: Effectiveness of Traditional Monetary Policy - Tchir notes that the effectiveness of traditional monetary policy tools is diminishing, as relying solely on adjusting the federal funds rate has a long and variable transmission lag, making it difficult to assess its impact [7][9]. - Many entities have locked in long-term low rates since the zero interest rate policy era, reducing their sensitivity to changes in short-term rates, which further diminishes the effectiveness of monetary policy [9]. Group 4: Unconventional Policy Toolbox - The article outlines several unconventional policy options that the government might consider if traditional tools prove ineffective [10]. - One strategy could involve a significant one-time rate cut of 100 basis points, coupled with a commitment to maintain rates unless substantial data changes occur, aimed at quickly dispelling market speculation about future rate paths [11]. - Another approach could challenge the validity of inflation data, particularly regarding housing costs, to alleviate market fears about inflation and facilitate rate cuts [12]. Group 5: Specific Unconventional Measures - A key unconventional measure could be the reintroduction of "Operation Twist," which involves selling short-term bonds while buying long-term bonds to lower long-term rates [13]. - Other potential options include yield curve control (YCC) and re-evaluating U.S. gold reserves, which could generate significant accounting gains and provide funding for other initiatives [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - Concerns are rising among investors regarding President Trump's attempts to exert control over the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, particularly in light of the increasing U.S. government debt and budget deficits [1][5][19] Group 1: Government Debt and Monetary Policy - The U.S. government's total debt has surged due to expanding budget deficits and rising interest rates, with economists suggesting that solutions should focus on reducing government borrowing through spending cuts and tax increases rather than relying on the Federal Reserve to lower borrowing costs [1][7] - Trump's push for a majority of rate-cutting seats on the Federal Reserve Board could lead to a series of movements aimed at lowering interest rates, which he claims would save the nation "hundreds of billions" [1][9] - The Federal Reserve's core objective is to curb inflation, but if interest rates become tools for maintaining government solvency, the task of controlling inflation could become unmanageable [5][8] Group 2: Fiscal Dominance and Economic Implications - The term "fiscal dominance" describes a situation where monetary policy is heavily influenced by political pressures, a scenario that analysts believe the U.S. may be approaching due to Trump's actions against the Federal Reserve [7][12] - There are indications that the U.S. is not yet in a textbook definition of fiscal dominance, but the situation is evolving, with budgetary pressures increasingly shaping policy decisions [12][19] - The anticipated budget deficit is projected to remain around 6% of GDP, which is significantly higher than the 3% target set by the Treasury Secretary [12][15] Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - As Trump advances his plans to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar have declined, reflecting market concerns about the potential shift in Federal Reserve policy focus [9][10] - A recent Bank of America survey indicated that over half of fund managers expect the next Federal Reserve chair to resort to quantitative easing or yield curve control to alleviate the debt burden [10] - The ongoing pressure on the Federal Reserve may lead to a weakening of the dollar and an increase in bond yields, potentially driving investment towards alternative assets like cryptocurrencies and gold [9][10]

Group 1 - Concerns over fiscal expansion and weakening investor demand, combined with rising US Treasury yields, have led to a surge in long-term Japanese government bond yields to multi-decade highs [1][4] - The 20-year Japanese government bond yield reached 2.655%, the highest since 1999, while the 30-year yield climbed to 3.185%, nearly matching its peak from May [4] - Japan's public debt exceeds 260% of GDP, with core inflation consistently above the Bank of Japan's 2% target for seven months, prompting expectations of a shift in monetary policy [4][5] Group 2 - Domestic investors, including life insurance companies, have reduced their holdings of Japanese government bonds by 1.35 trillion yen since October 2024, indicating a retreat from the market [5] - Foreign investment in long-term Japanese bonds has also decreased significantly, with net purchases dropping to 480 billion yen in July, one-third of the previous month’s level [5] - The rising yields have led Japanese companies to avoid issuing long-term bonds, with approximately 75% of bond issuances this fiscal year concentrated in maturities of five years or less [7] Group 3 - The trend of issuing short-term bonds may limit immediate interest costs but increases refinancing risks and management expenses for companies [7] - Analysts suggest that the rising bond yields could suppress corporate investment and household spending, impacting Japan's economic growth [9] - The increase in long-term bond yields may also affect global equity markets, as higher borrowing costs could lead to a shift in investor sentiment [9]

Core Viewpoint - The market is undergoing a significant paradigm shift due to intertwined pressures of U.S. debt and anticipated policy changes, with a focus on currency devaluation as a core strategy to address debt challenges [1][3] Group 1: Policy and Economic Outlook - U.S. policymakers are expected to utilize currency devaluation and unconventional tools like Yield Curve Control (YCC) to manage debt and deficits, leading to a potential long-term bear market for the dollar [1][4] - The expectation of a new round of monetary easing has led to a peak in market anticipation for the Federal Reserve to join the "rate-cutting party," with 88 central banks having implemented rate cuts since 2025, marking the fastest easing pace since 2020 [1][3] Group 2: Investment Trends - Investors are increasingly avoiding long-term government bonds, opting instead for equities and credit markets, with the S&P 500's price-to-book ratio reaching a record 5.3 times, surpassing the peak during the tech bubble [9] - The average yield spread for U.S. investment-grade A+ credit is only 64 basis points, placing it in the 98th percentile over the past 30 years, indicating a strong preference for equities over bonds [11] Group 3: Asset Allocation Recommendations - Hartnett suggests that investors should increase allocations to gold and cryptocurrencies as a hedge against potential long-term dollar depreciation, with only 9% of fund managers currently holding cryptocurrency exposure [3][16] - The global fund manager survey indicates that only 48% of managers hold gold, with an average allocation of 2.2% of assets under management (AUM), suggesting significant room for growth in these asset classes [16] Group 4: Energy Market Insights - Hartnett presents a contrarian view on energy prices, suggesting that current oil and natural gas prices have already factored in expectations of peace in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with a potential for further price declines until 2026 [18][20] - Collaboration between the U.S. and Russia on energy resources could lead to a deeper bear market in energy prices, despite potential short-term price rebounds due to related agreements [20]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite a 3.1% year-on-year increase in the US core CPI in July, inflation pressures remain high, which supports long-term demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2] - Thorsten Polleit, an economist, suggests that the unrestrained growth of fiat currency systems is pushing gold and silver towards significant structural breakthroughs [2] - The global debt is rising, contributing to inflation, and this trend is observed not only in the US but also in Canada, the UK, and Europe [2] Group 2 - Polleit anticipates that central banks will have to lower interest rates this year, and he foresees a return of financial repression and potential yield curve control [2][3] - The market is currently pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut next month, with a 60% probability of two additional cuts by the end of the year [3] - Polleit believes that the 10-year Treasury yield will not exceed 5%, and if central banks cannot lower long-term rates, they may resume bond purchases [3]