ASML CEO富凯关于"中国拟弃用其光刻机、或遭稀土反制"的表态，看似是企业对经营风险的常规预 警，实则精准刺破了中美科技博弈下全球半导体产业链的深层矛盾。这番言论的字里行间，既藏着 ASML对中国市场的深度依赖与技术替代的双重焦虑，更折射出单边制裁倒逼下，全球芯片产业格局正 在经历的结构性重构阵痛。 中国在光刻机领域的"自主突围"，从来不是主动"抛弃"，而是被技术封锁逼入绝境后的必然选择。数据 足以说明现实：2025年第三季度，中国大陆已成为ASML全球最大客户，设备交付量占比高达42%，但 这份"依赖"始终带着鲜明的被动色彩——在美国的主导与施压下，中国企业始终无法触及制造先进芯片 的"命脉"：EUV光刻机早已被全面封锁，即便是浸润式DUV光刻机，也因荷兰政府不断收紧出口许 可，只能获取技术落后、仅能维持成熟芯片产能的型号。 如今中国启动稀土管制，更多是释放"底线信号"——若技术封锁持续升级，打破产业链共生平衡的代 价，终将由所有参与者共同承担，依赖稀土的ASML自然会率先感知到这种压力。 更深层的逻辑在于，ASML的焦虑，实为美方"技术脱钩"战略反噬效应的缩影。正如ASML前CEO温宁 克的预警："孤 ...

Group 1 - The core issue is that China has not imported any U.S. crude oil for two consecutive months, resulting in the cancellation of 18 million barrels of orders, leading to over $10 billion in losses for U.S. shale oil companies [1][3] - The U.S. oil export volume has reached a five-year low due to this situation, with 40% of drilling platforms in Texas being shut down and thousands of workers losing their jobs [3][4] - The U.S. shale oil production cost has risen to $65 per barrel, while the current international oil price is only $61, indicating a loss of $4 for every barrel sold [3] Group 2 - China's refusal to purchase U.S. crude oil is supported by its strategic reserves and a significant reduction in traditional fuel demand due to the rapid development of its new energy vehicle sector [6] - Russia has expressed readiness to supply as much oil as China needs, while OPEC plans to increase oil production, further diminishing U.S. leverage in the energy market [6] - The U.S. has lost its competitive edge in various sectors, including agriculture, where imports of U.S. soybeans and other products have drastically decreased since the trade war began [9]