转自：前瞻产业研究院 以下数据及分析来自于前瞻产业研究院移动游戏研究小组发布的《中国移动游戏行业市场前瞻与投资战 略规划分析报告》。 行业主要上市公司：目前国内集成电路产业的上市公司主要有芯原股份(688521.SH);寒武纪(688256.SH); 概伦电子(688206.SH);北方华创(002371.SZ);中微公司(688012.SH);兆易创新(603986.SH);圣邦微电子 (300661.SZ);华虹集团(688347.SH);中芯国际(688981.SH/00981.HK);长电科技(600584.SH);通富微电 (002156.SZ)等。 1、从"技术探索"到"局部领跑" 中国集成电路技术发展历经六十余年，1950年代-1978年为奠定基础的技术探索期，主要受限于外部禁 运和技术空白，产业规模小而落后;1978年-2000年，引进国外设备和资本，技术得到一定发展但是总体 上对进口依赖较大;2000年-2020年实现14nm制程等关键突破的自主突破期，"设计-制造-封测"完整链条 形成;2020年至今进入第三代半导体、设备材料国产替代及AI芯片等新兴领域局部领跑的新阶段。 | 图表3:集成 ...

Core Viewpoint - ASML's CEO expressed concerns over China's potential abandonment of its lithography machines and the implementation of rare earth countermeasures, highlighting the intense technological competition between the US and China [1] Group 1: ASML's Concerns - ASML's anxiety stems from recent US regulations that expanded sanctions to subsidiaries controlled by Chinese companies, leading to the freezing of assets of a Chinese semiconductor firm [3] - The Dutch government, feeling supported by the US, took aggressive actions against Chinese investments, underestimating China's ability to retaliate swiftly and effectively [3] Group 2: Impact of Rare Earth Regulations - China announced strict export controls on five types of medium and heavy rare earths, affecting the entire supply chain from mining to manufacturing [3] - ASML's lithography machines require over 10 kilograms of rare earth magnets, with over 90% of these materials sourced from China, leading to a potential production drop of 15-20 machines per month and a loss of up to €3.2 billion annually [5] Group 3: China's Advancements in Lithography Technology - By Q3 2025, China is projected to become ASML's largest customer, with a 42% share of equipment deliveries, despite being blocked from acquiring advanced EUV lithography machines [7] - Chinese companies are making significant strides in developing their own lithography technologies, with local equipment coverage expected to rise from 15% in 2022 to 35% by 2025 [7] Group 4: ASML's Historical Context and Challenges - ASML has been a key player in US-led technology restrictions against China, facing a dilemma between adhering to US regulations and maintaining access to the Chinese market [12] - The company's sales to China peaked at 49% in early 2024 but are expected to drop to 25% by 2025 due to ongoing sanctions, resulting in a projected revenue loss of €2 billion [12] Group 5: Future Dynamics and Industry Implications - The Dutch government has shown signs of softening its stance, seeking negotiations with China, while the automotive industry in Germany expresses significant concern over reliance on Chinese rare earths [14] - The ongoing semiconductor industry struggle reflects a broader battle for control over supply chains, emphasizing the need for cooperation rather than confrontation to ensure sustainable development [15]

Core Viewpoint - ASML's CEO's remarks about China's potential abandonment of its lithography machines and possible rare earth countermeasures highlight the deep-seated contradictions in the global semiconductor supply chain amid the US-China tech rivalry [1][3][9] Group 1: ASML's Dependency and Market Dynamics - ASML has a significant dependency on the Chinese market, with China becoming its largest customer by Q3 2025, accounting for 42% of equipment delivery [3] - The reliance on ASML's technology is characterized by a passive nature, as Chinese companies face restrictions on accessing advanced chip manufacturing technologies due to US-led sanctions [3][5] - The ongoing technological blockade has forced China to pursue self-reliance in lithography technology, with companies like Shanghai Micro Electronics and North China Innovation making strides in this field [3][7] Group 2: Rare Earth Supply Chain and Strategic Responses - ASML's concerns regarding China's rare earth export controls reveal the interdependent nature of the global supply chain, where China's measures are seen as a response to unilateral sanctions [5][9] - Historically, China has provided stable rare earth supplies to global tech firms, including ASML, but the US's dual standards in technology sanctions and resource demands have disrupted this balance [5][9] - China's rare earth controls signal a commitment to maintaining fairness in the supply chain, indicating that the consequences of escalating technology blockades will affect all participants, including ASML [5][9] Group 3: Implications of US-China Tech Decoupling - ASML's anxiety reflects the broader repercussions of the US's tech decoupling strategy, which inadvertently encourages Chinese innovation and the emergence of domestic semiconductor firms [7][9] - The sanctions imposed by the US have led to the rise of Chinese semiconductor equipment companies, which are beginning to penetrate markets previously dominated by foreign firms [7][9] - The situation illustrates that attempts to isolate China may ultimately result in a loss of market share for foreign companies, as local firms develop differentiated technologies [7][9] Group 4: Future of the Semiconductor Industry - The ongoing struggle over lithography technology and rare earth resources transcends individual corporate interests, impacting the future trajectory of the global semiconductor industry [9][11] - China's push for self-reliance in semiconductor technology is not about severing global ties but rather about finding space for survival and growth amid restrictions [9][11] - A sustainable future for the global semiconductor industry hinges on open collaboration rather than closed confrontation, emphasizing the need for shared technological advancements and equitable negotiations [11]