Group 1: Manufacturing Trends - The manufacturing PMI in China has stabilized around 49.7, while the US PMI hovers around 48.0, indicating a lack of significant cyclical peaks or troughs, reflecting a "weak resilience" state[9] - China's real estate sector is undergoing adjustments, with targeted fiscal policies supporting demand, leading to a balanced demand environment[9] - Global supply chain diversification is enhancing export resilience, preventing typical inventory destocking in manufacturing[9] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The expected GDP growth for January is projected at 4.66% (actual) and 3.86% (nominal), compared to December's 4.18% and 3.79%[4] - The PPI is anticipated to continue rising due to low base effects, while CPI is expected to decline due to high base effects[4] - The M1 growth rate may slow down due to high base effects and reduced fiscal net spending[4] Group 3: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Tech, and Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index saw single-day gains of 2.76%, 4.00%, and 4.38% respectively on the first trading day of the year[4] - The average daily trading volume in A-shares increased to 21,000 million yuan, up 8.30% week-on-week[19] - The gold ETF in China experienced a net outflow of 3.205 billion yuan, while the SPDR global gold ETF saw a net outflow of 6 tons[36]

Group 1 - The manufacturing PMI in both China and the US has shown a "weak resilience" state since 2023, with China's PMI fluctuating around 49.7 and the US PMI around 48.0, indicating a lack of clear cyclical peaks or troughs [1][3] - In China, the adjustment in the real estate sector and targeted fiscal policies have created a demand environment with both upper and lower limits, leading to a stable manufacturing demand [1] - The diversification of global supply chains has supported export resilience, preventing typical destocking in manufacturing, while financial resources have shifted strategically towards manufacturing, resulting in low-cost supply conditions [1][2] Group 2 - In the US, rising supply chain costs and inflation have constrained economic growth, but a low unemployment rate and strong wage growth have created a positive cycle supporting consumer resilience [3] - High interest rates are limiting investment in interest-sensitive sectors, but fiscal expansion and industrial policies related to re-industrialization are supporting certain emerging manufacturing sectors, leading to a smoothing of the manufacturing cycle [3] - Both economies face structural bottlenecks: China's focus is on increasing household income and consumption rates, while the US aims to enhance supply sustainability and fiscal employment [3] Group 3 - The global stock market has shown a preference for structural recovery, with emerging markets leading and traditional sectors in the US performing well, while tech stocks have seen some pullback [4][5] - The first trading day of the year saw significant gains in Hong Kong and US-listed Chinese stocks, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.76% and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index by 4.38% [4][9] - A notable shift occurred in the US stock market, with industrial, public, and materials sectors moving from declines to gains, reflecting a cautious market sentiment [5] Group 4 - Commodity prices have shown mixed trends, with gold and silver experiencing volatility, while oil prices were supported by geopolitical factors [7][8] - The London gold price saw a technical rebound after a significant drop, while silver prices showed greater elasticity in recovery [7] - The copper market has also seen fluctuations, with low inventory levels contributing to resilience despite price volatility [7] Group 5 - The exchange rate trends indicate a continued appreciation of the RMB, with the US dollar showing a rebound against other currencies [8] - The bond market has seen rising yields across various countries, with the US 10-year yield increasing to 4.19% [8] - The overall liquidity in the market remains stable, with short-term rates continuing to be low, indicating a sustained easing environment [21][22]