消息面上，上市券商业绩与股价背离。据北京商报，即将步入2026年1月下旬，首批券商2025年度业绩 预告及快报已陆续出炉。1月18日，国联民生证券发布业绩预增公告。除国联民生证券外，截至目前， 还有中信证券、西南证券等4家券商通过业绩快报、业绩预告等形式公布2025年经营情况，券商行业业 绩向好迹象逐步显现。但业绩向好的同时，券商开年以来的股价却表现不佳，引发市场广泛关注。展望 2026年，券商业绩大概率呈"增速回落但绝对额仍处高位"的L型修复。 开源证券认为，当下券商板块估值和机构持仓仍在低位，过往一年整体滞涨，资金面扰动不影响板块中 期逻辑，看好板块春季行情，关注业绩催化。 （文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 值得一提的是，Wind数据显示，证券ETF(159841)目前获自己净申购超5000万份，此前4个交易日连续 获资金净流入，累计"吸金"5.48亿元。截至1月19日收盘，该ETF最新流通份额为94.62亿份，最新流通 规模为103.1亿元。 证券ETF（159841）密切跟踪中证全指证券公司指数，该指数聚焦了A股的大市值证券龙头，而且既有 传统证券龙头，也有金融科技龙头。证券ETF（159841）同时配 ...

Group 1 - The core index of the securities sector, the Guozheng Securities Leading Index (399437), has seen a strong increase of 1.36%, with notable gains from constituent stocks such as GF Securities (000776) up 3.57% and Dongfang Securities (600958) up 2.28% [1] - In September, the number of new A-share accounts opened reached 2.9372 million, marking a year-on-year increase of 60.73% and a month-on-month increase of 10.83%, making it the second-highest monthly figure this year [1] - Minsheng Securities indicates that the high growth in new accounts in the Shanghai market suggests a continued influx of both retail and institutional funds, with active market trading and an expanding margin balance, which may support the recovery trend in brokerage performance [1] Group 2 - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Guozheng Securities Leading Index (399437) include Dongfang Caifu (300059), CITIC Securities (600030), and Huatai Securities (601688), with these stocks collectively accounting for 79.09% of the index [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the securities industry [3][8]. Core Views - The securities sector is expected to see a recovery in performance due to active market trading in the third quarter, with valuations currently at reasonable levels, indicating potential for valuation recovery [8][28]. - The average daily stock trading volume in the two markets reached 25,869 billion yuan, a significant increase of 19% week-on-week, reflecting a strong recovery in trading activity post-holiday [6][15]. - In September, the equity financing scale reached 43.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 109%, indicating robust activity in the investment banking sector [7][20]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The report notes that during the first week after the holiday, the securities sector performed actively, with the broker index rising by 0.5%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1 percentage point [5][10]. - The broker index's price-to-book ratio stands at 1.48x, maintaining a level consistent with the previous week and within the 48th percentile of the past decade [5][10]. Industry Weekly Data - **Brokerage Business**: The average daily stock trading volume in September was 23,927 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 5% and a year-on-year increase of 154% [6][15]. - **Investment Banking**: In September, 28 companies engaged in equity financing, with a total financing scale of 437 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 109% [7][20]. - **Capital Intermediation**: As of October 10, the margin trading balance reached 24,456 billion yuan, a 2.1% increase from the previous period, continuing to set new highs for the year [7][23]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on internet brokers with strong beta attributes, such as Zhina Compass, and recommends attention to Jiufang Zhitu Holdings in the Hong Kong market due to their strong performance certainty amid active trading [8][28].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news indicates a positive trend in the capital market, with various indices showing gains, particularly the CSI All Share Securities Company Index rising by 1.9% and the CSI 300 Non-Bank Financial Index increasing by 1.4% [1] - The Hong Kong Securities ETF has seen significant inflows, accumulating nearly 2.5 billion yuan over the past five trading days, bringing its total size to 29.1 billion yuan [1] - Minsheng Securities suggests that the active trading environment and the continuous expansion of margin financing balances will likely support the recovery trend in brokerage firms' performance [1] Group 2 - Recent revisions to the classification evaluation indicators for securities companies are expected to enhance the industry's competitiveness, benefiting leading brokerages and smaller firms with distinctive equity business [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that 10 listed securities firms reported double-digit growth in net profits for Q1 2025, with some firms like Guotai Junan, Dongwu Securities, and Huazheng Securities experiencing over 100% year-on-year growth [1][2] - The significant growth in net profits is attributed to the increase in wealth management and proprietary trading businesses [1][2] - Guotai Junan is expected to achieve a net profit of between 112.01 billion yuan and 124.45 billion yuan for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 350% to 400% [1] Group 2 - The number of new A-share accounts opened in Q1 2025 reached 7.47 million, marking a year-on-year growth of 31.7% [2] - The trading activity in the market remained high, contributing to a recovery in investment banking revenues, with firms reporting significant increases in wealth management, trading investments, and investment banking revenues [2] - Minsheng Securities anticipates that the positive trend in the performance of securities firms will continue into 2025 [2]