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券商板块跟踪点评:坚定看好券商板块投资价值
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the brokerage sector, indicating a favorable outlook for investment opportunities in this industry [2]. Core Insights - The brokerage industry is experiencing an upward trend in market activity, with valuations currently in a reasonable range and the sector being underweighted, suggesting it possesses characteristics of a "good industry," "good price," and "good companies" [2]. - Short-term perspective highlights that brokerages are closely tied to capital market activities, benefiting directly from increased trading volumes. The average stock trading volume has risen to 2.1 trillion yuan since August 2025, surpassing previous levels [2]. - Mid-term analysis indicates a recovery in market conditions, with regulatory easing and increased IPO activities expected to support the sector's growth [2]. - Long-term outlook suggests structural and business model optimizations within the brokerage industry, with a focus on developing leading institutions capable of international competition [2]. Summary by Sections Good Industry - Short-term: Brokerages are sensitive to market trading volumes, with significant increases observed in trading activity [2]. - Mid-term: Regulatory measures are expected to ease, allowing for a recovery in brokerage activities and increased IPOs [2]. - Long-term: The industry aims to enhance its structure and business models, focusing on comprehensive service offerings and differentiation among smaller firms [2]. Good Price - The brokerage sector is currently undervalued, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.58, indicating potential for over 50% upside based on historical PB-ROE relationships [9]. - The sector is underweighted in equity fund allocations, suggesting room for increased investment [9]. Good Companies - Key companies identified for investment include Guotai Junan, CITIC Securities, and China International Capital Corporation, recognized for their competitive advantages and growth potential [9]. - Recommendations also include mid-sized firms like Zhongyin Securities and Longcheng Securities, as well as internet brokerages such as Zhina and Tonghuashun [9].