Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macrofinance**: Index futures are recommended for long - term bullish and buying on dips; Treasury bonds are recommended to stay on the sidelines [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are recommended for range trading; Glass is recommended for buying on dips [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended for sidelines or buying on dips with short - term trading; Aluminum is recommended for buying on dips after pullbacks; Nickel is recommended for sidelines or shorting on rallies; Tin, gold, and silver are recommended for range trading [1][10][11][15][16][18] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to oscillate; Soda ash is recommended for shorting the 01 contract and going long on the 05 contract [1][19][21][23][25][26][28][29][31] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to oscillate; PTA is expected to oscillate within the range of 4600 - 4950; Apples are expected to oscillate strongly; Jujubes are expected to oscillate weakly [1][34][35][37] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs and eggs are recommended for shorting on rallies; Corn is expected to oscillate widely; Soybean meal is expected to oscillate weakly; Oils are expected to oscillate strongly after a high - level correction [1][38][40][41][42][43] Core Viewpoints The report provides trading strategies for various futures products based on their market trends, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors. It believes that the macro - financial market has long - term potential, while different sectors in the commodity market have different trends. For example, some products are in a range - bound state, some are affected by seasonal factors, and some are influenced by policy and international trade factors [1][5][7][11][34][38] Summaries by Categories Macrofinance - **Index Futures**: The market is in a short - term shock, but in the medium - term, it is expected to benefit from the loose US dollar liquidity environment. It is recommended to buy on dips [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The market adjusted on Friday, and the technical repair may be over. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and focus on the results of the China - US presidential call [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Multiple factors have boosted market sentiment, with coal prices rising across the board [7] - **Rebar**: The short - term pattern of weak industry and strong macro remains. It is recommended to buy on dips, focusing on the 3100 - 3250 range for the RB2601 contract [7] - **Glass**: The fundamentals are stable, and it is affected by coal news. It is recommended to buy on dips, focusing on the 1130 - 1160 support [8] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: It is expected to remain in high - level shock before the holiday, and it is recommended to trade cautiously on the long side [11] - **Aluminum**: The price is under pressure from alumina, but the demand is in the peak season. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider the long AD short AL arbitrage strategy [11] - **Nickel**: The supply - demand side changes little, and it is recommended to short moderately on rallies [15] - **Tin**: The supply is tight, and the demand is recovering. It is recommended for range trading, with the reference range of 265,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton for the Shanghai Tin 10 contract [16] - **Silver and Gold**: They are expected to oscillate, and it is recommended for range trading, with reference ranges of 9800 - 10500 for the Shanghai Silver 12 contract and 820 - 855 for the Shanghai Gold 12 contract [16][18] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply - demand is weak, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the 01 contract focusing on the 4850 - 5050 range [20] - **Caustic Soda**: Considering pre - holiday restocking and alumina production expectations, it is expected to oscillate, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2550 - 2650 range [22] - **Styrene**: The supply - demand is weak, and it is expected to oscillate, focusing on the 6900 - 7200 range [25] - **Rubber**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is expected to maintain a narrow - range arrangement, focusing on the 15600 support [25] - **Urea**: The supply is slightly lower than last year, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to focus on the 1630 - 1650 support for the 01 contract and the positive arbitrage opportunity for the 1 - 5 spread [26] - **Methanol**: The supply is recovering, and the demand is stable. It is expected to oscillate weakly, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2330 - 2450 range [28] - **Polyolefins**: The downstream demand is improving, and the supply pressure is relieved. It is expected to oscillate, with the L2601 contract focusing on the 7200 - 7500 range and the PP2601 contract focusing on the 6900 - 7200 range [30] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to short the 01 contract and go long on the 05 contract due to the expected supply surplus [33] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global supply - demand situation is improving, but the new cotton production may increase. It is recommended to prepare for hedging [34] - **PTA**: The cost and supply - demand are in a tug - of - war. It is expected to oscillate within the 4600 - 4950 range [34] - **Apples**: Affected by weather and market conditions, the price is expected to be strong [35] - **Jujubes**: The consumption is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [37] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The supply exceeds demand, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies and focus on the long 05, 07 short 03 arbitrage [38] - **Eggs**: The short - term supply pressure is large, and the long - term growth rate may slow down. It is recommended to short lightly on rallies for the near - term contracts and be cautious about shorting for the 12 and 01 contracts [40] - **Corn**: It is in the period of new and old crop connection, and the price is under seasonal pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 11 contract and focus on the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [41] - **Soybean Meal**: The supply is sufficient in September - October, and the price is under pressure, but it is supported by cost. It is recommended to focus on the 2980 support for the M2601 contract [42] - **Oils**: The domestic oils have a high - level correction, but the decline is limited. It is recommended to buy on dips and focus on some arbitrage opportunities [43]

Core Viewpoint - The infant formula milk powder market in China is experiencing a significant transformation, with leading companies showing recovery in performance despite an overall decline in the domestic market [1][5]. Group 1: Market Trends - The domestic milk powder market is still in a downward trend, but top companies are seeing a rebound in their performance [1]. - The infant formula industry is showing signs of improvement, with a 1.5% year-on-year increase in sales from January to July 2025 [5]. - The market is becoming increasingly competitive, prompting domestic milk powder companies to explore international markets [2][4]. Group 2: Company Performance - Ausnutria Dairy (01717.HK) reported a 65.7% year-on-year increase in overseas revenue from its goat milk powder brand, with overseas revenue share rising from 16.1% to 25.9% [2]. - Yili (600887.SH) achieved a 14.3% year-on-year increase in revenue from its milk powder and dairy products, with infant formula sales also showing double-digit growth [5]. - China Feihe (06186.HK) expanded its presence in North America, with products now in over 1,500 large supermarkets, marking a 270% increase in store count [3]. Group 3: International Expansion - More domestic milk powder companies are joining the trend of international expansion, with Mengniu Dairy (02319.HK) reporting over 20% revenue growth from its Bellamy's brand in Southeast Asia [3]. - Ausnutria plans to enter new markets in Egypt and Iraq, as well as expand into high-birth-rate regions like India and Southeast Asia [3]. - The overseas business of Ausnutria is expected to maintain high double-digit growth, potentially exceeding 1 billion yuan in revenue [3]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Foreign brands are also experiencing significant growth, with Danone reporting an 11.3% year-on-year increase in sales in China, North Asia, and Oceania [6]. - The market is seeing a shift towards higher concentration, with leading brands gaining market share amid a backdrop of declining birth rates [7]. - Online sales of milk powder increased by 10.2% year-on-year, while offline sales decreased by 2.1%, indicating a shift in consumer purchasing behavior [7].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a sudden adjustment, with all three major indices closing in the red. Pacific Securities saw a significant intraday surge, closing up over 6%, with a net inflow of 2.686 billion yuan in main funds for the day [1] - The top-performing broker ETF (512000) saw a price drop of 1.27%, marking three consecutive days of decline, with a total trading volume exceeding 1.8 billion yuan, indicating active trading [1][3] Fund Flows and ETF Performance - Since reaching a year-to-date high in early August, the broker sector has shown a more subdued performance, yet funds have been patiently entering through ETFs. The broker ETF (512000) recorded a net inflow of 462 million yuan on the latest trading day, with a cumulative net inflow of over 4.1 billion yuan in the past 20 days [3] - The latest fund size of the broker ETF (512000) surpassed 31.2 billion yuan, setting a new historical high, with an average daily trading volume of over 900 million yuan, positioning it among the top in A-share scale and liquidity [3] Market Expectations and Industry Fundamentals - The overall market outlook for the broker sector can be assessed through market expectations and industry fundamentals. Morgan Stanley does not believe the market has entered a fully overheated state, as trading volume and margin financing balances have increased but remain below historical highs [5] - Zhongyuan Securities suggests that the current A-share market is in a favorable environment with intertwined domestic and foreign policy benefits and ample liquidity, expecting a steady upward trend in the short term [5] Broker Performance and Valuation - In terms of performance, all 49 broker stocks in A-share achieved positive growth in net profit for the first half of the year, with 13 companies seeing growth exceeding 100% [6] - The broker ETF (512000) tracks the CSI All Share Securities Company Index, which has a price-to-book ratio (PB) of only 1.65 times, situated in the median range of the past decade, indicating potential undervaluation [6][8] Investment Appeal and Structural Changes - The current configuration value of the broker sector is supported by policies, funding, and internal transformation, enhancing the profitability outlook for the sector [9][10] - The active capital market policies, including the deepening of the registration system and the introduction of long-term funds, are expected to expand the business space for brokers in investment banking, brokerage, and asset management [13] - The recovery of market confidence is driving trading activity and margin financing, with the expectation of new capital inflows from pensions and insurance, providing a foundation for broker performance [13]

Core Viewpoint - The recent recovery of the A-share market has led to discussions among investors about "fund recovery" and "finally breaking even," with varying responses to redeeming or holding onto funds [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - The A-share market has seen a rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching nearly a ten-year high [1]. - In July, stock and mixed funds experienced significant growth in scale, with stock funds increasing by 192.94 billion and mixed funds by 138.56 billion [3]. - Despite the growth in scale, the total shares of stock and mixed funds decreased, indicating that some investors are redeeming their equity products as they recover from losses [4]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - Investors often exhibit a "disposition effect," where they sell winning assets too early while holding onto losing assets for too long [2]. - The psychological tendency to redeem funds upon breaking even can lead to decisions driven by emotions rather than the future potential of the assets [5]. - Investors are encouraged to reassess their initial reasons for purchasing a fund, such as the performance of the fund manager or the relevance of the investment strategy [7]. Group 3: Fund Evaluation Criteria - Investors should evaluate funds based on long-term performance, checking if they have consistently outperformed benchmarks and peers over the past 3 to 5 years [9]. - The alignment of the fund's holdings with current market trends, such as AI and advanced manufacturing, is crucial for decision-making [10]. - Factors such as the fund manager's historical performance, fund size, fees, and the research capabilities of the fund company should also be considered [10]. Group 4: Decision-Making Strategies - Investors are not limited to extreme choices of either fully redeeming or continuing to hold funds; they can consider partial redemption or gradual adjustments based on their risk tolerance [11][12]. - The concept of "breaking even" should be viewed as a restart, shifting focus from past costs to future value predictions [13].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant increase in the enthusiasm for new stock subscriptions in the A-share market, driven by a recovering market sentiment [1][2][4] - On August 25, Huaxin Jingke's online subscription attracted over 13 million investors, setting a new record for the Shanghai Stock Exchange since March 2022 [2][4] - The number of investors participating in new stock subscriptions has nearly doubled over the past year, with the Shanghai Stock Exchange seeing an increase of approximately 650,000 investors [4][6] Group 2 - The new stock subscription trend is not limited to the Shanghai Stock Exchange; the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, ChiNext, and STAR Market have also seen increased investor interest [1][4][6] - The online subscription for Huaxin Jingke involved issuing 43.73 million shares, with 20% allocated for strategic placement and 60% for offline issuance [2] - The subscription for Huaxin Jingke resulted in 1.1 billion shares being effectively subscribed, indicating a high level of investor engagement [2] Group 3 - The profitability of new stocks has been a significant factor in attracting investors, with several new stocks showing substantial gains on their first trading day [7] - For instance, the new stock Guangdong Jiankang saw a first-day price increase of 409.80%, resulting in a profit of over 13,000 yuan per subscription [7] - The overall market performance has also improved, with major indices like the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 8% since August [7][8] Group 4 - The trading activity in the A-share market has surged, with daily trading volumes exceeding 3 trillion yuan, marking a significant increase in market activity [8] - Analysts suggest that the current market environment is entering a positive feedback loop, characterized by increased capital inflow and rising market prices [8] - The supportive measures from decision-makers regarding the capital market have contributed to a more favorable trading atmosphere [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant increase in investor participation in new stock subscriptions in the A-share market, driven by a recovering market sentiment and the attractive returns from recent IPOs [1][3][12]. Group 1: New Stock Subscription Trends - As of August 25, 2023, the number of effective online subscriptions for the new stock of Huaxin Jingke exceeded 13 million, marking a new high since March 2022 for the Shanghai Stock Exchange [1][3]. - The number of investors participating in new stock subscriptions in the Shenzhen Stock Exchange has also surged, with nearly 15 million investors involved [1][6]. - The number of new stock subscriptions in the Shanghai Stock Exchange has nearly doubled over the past year, increasing by approximately 650,000 investors [5]. Group 2: Performance of New Stocks - The IPO of Huaxin Jingke plans to issue 43.75 million shares, with 20% allocated for strategic placement and 40% for online issuance, attracting 13.18 million investors and 109.53 billion shares in effective subscriptions [3]. - New stocks have shown remarkable performance, with several achieving significant gains on their first trading day, such as Guangdong Jiankang, which saw a 409.80% increase from its issue price [11]. Group 3: Market Conditions and Investor Sentiment - The overall market has seen a recovery, with major indices like the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 8% in August, contributing to the heightened enthusiasm for new stock subscriptions [12]. - The trading volume in the A-share market has also increased, surpassing 3 trillion yuan, indicating a significant rise in market activity [15]. - Analysts suggest that the current market environment, characterized by improved liquidity and a positive feedback loop of capital inflow, is fostering a conducive atmosphere for new stock subscriptions [15].

Group 1: Core Insights - Great Wall Securities (002939) reported its 2025 semi-annual results, revealing key operational data from its two public fund subsidiaries: Invesco Great Wall Fund (49% stake) achieved total revenue of approximately 1.71 billion yuan and net profit of about 542 million yuan; Great Wall Fund (47.06% stake) generated total revenue of around 541 million yuan and net profit of approximately 136 million yuan. The two subsidiaries contributed a combined net profit of about 678 million yuan, reflecting a "stable growth for the leaders and a stable pursuit for the mid-tier" in a recovering market environment with fee reductions and institutional differentiation [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - Invesco Great Wall's financial performance for the first half of 2025 included total revenue of 1.71 billion yuan, operating profit of 713 million yuan, and net profit of 542 million yuan, resulting in a net profit margin of approximately 31.7% and an operating profit margin of about 41.7%. The total assets at the end of the period were 6.162 billion yuan, with net assets of 4.487 billion yuan, leading to an estimated half-year ROE of about 12.1% (non-annualized) [4] - Great Wall Fund reported total revenue of 541 million yuan, operating profit of 181 million yuan, and net profit of 136 million yuan, with a net profit margin of approximately 25.1% and an operating profit margin of about 33.5%. The total assets at the end of the period were 2.726 billion yuan, with net assets of 2.118 billion yuan, resulting in an estimated half-year ROE of about 6.4% (non-annualized) [7] Group 3: Product Performance - As of August 25, 2025, most of Invesco Great Wall's products achieved positive returns this year, but the "excess" returns were not substantial. For instance, the Invesco Great Wall Electronic Information Industry Stock A (010003) had a return of approximately 28.21%, lagging behind its benchmark by 6.6 percentage points [4][6] - Great Wall Fund's product performance showed a general trend of positive returns but weak excess returns. For example, the Great Wall CSI A500 Index A (022762) had a return of about 15.70%, with an excess return of -2.44% [7] Group 4: Market Position and Strategy - Invesco Great Wall's public fund management scale reached 657.2 billion yuan by the end of the first half, ranking 20th in the industry. The non-monetary fund scale was 471.8 billion yuan, ranking 12th, and the ETF scale was 57.6 billion yuan, ranking 18th. The company maintains a leading position in "profitability, scale resilience, and product line completeness," but the recovery of active equity alpha and style management will be key variables in the second half of the year [5] - Great Wall Fund's strategy focuses on steady growth in scale and profits, with index and fixed income products acting as stabilizers. The fund's performance reflects a healthy balance in revenue quality and cost control [7]

注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 没有股票账户的投资者可关注国泰中证全指证券公司ETF联接A（012362），国泰中证全指证券公司 ETF联接C（012363）。 东吴证券指出，证券行业8月交易量同比大幅提升，截至8月15日日均股基交易额达21549亿元，同比上 涨212.23%，两融余额同比提升44.70%。科创板首家未盈利企业西安奕材IPO过会，体现交易所对"硬科 技"企业的包容性增强，促进科技-资本-产业良性循环。证券行业转型有望带来新增长点，受益于市场 回暖及政策环境友好，经纪、投行、资本中介等业务均改善。目前行业2025E平均PB估值1.4倍，政策 积极背景下优质券商有望脱颖而出。非银金融整体估值仍具安全边际，证券行业在活跃资本市场政策支 持下呈现攻守兼备特性。 证券ETF（512880）跟踪的是证券公司指数（ ...

【导读】沪指创近十年新高，基民、基金公司、渠道众生相 "刚有人问我'有什么基金推荐'，转身就见老客户赎回了快要回本的产品，说'落袋为安最踏实'。这真是一半火焰一半海水！"一位银行理财经理的感叹， 道出了当下基金市场的热闹与纠结。 华南一家公募也观察到类似现象，其主动权益基金尤其均衡风格的基金近一个半月整体以净赎回为主，8月以来亦是如此。"主要有两类典型情况，"该公 司人士分析，"一是净值低于1元的产品在接近1元时，此前亏损的客户倾向于止亏退出；二是净值创新高的产品，投资者止盈心态较重。不过，对个人客 户的持营难度相比之前有所降低。" "从主动权益基金来看，我们整体是净赎回的，尤其是一些老产品在净值回升的过程中，不断有投资者在解套后选择赎回，在净值不断创出新高的背景下 尤其明显。"另一家基金公司也表示。 统计显示，伴随着市场回暖，在2021年市场高点成立的基金中，已经有超过一半净值回"1"，实现回本。 当然，也有基金公司旗下权益基金获得净申购。一家擅长主动权益投资的公募透露："8月份以来，公司权益和FOF产品都有净申购，债基则出现净赎回。 不过权益方面，近一个月申购赎回基本打平，净申购不多。" 沪指创下近十年高 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market sentiment is active as the Shanghai Composite Index has returned above 3600 points, reaching a new closing high for the year, indicating upward momentum for the market [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The Politburo meeting emphasized enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market, which supports the stabilization and improvement of the capital market [1] - The short-term policy focus is on effectively utilizing existing policies while retaining the option for timely additional support, benefiting the non-bank financial and securities sectors [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - In July 2025, new A-share accounts reached 1.96 million, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 71%, indicating a rise in market participation and providing new business opportunities for the securities industry [1] - The Securities ETF (512880) tracks the Securities Company Index (399975), which reflects the overall performance of listed companies involved in securities brokerage, underwriting, and proprietary trading, showcasing the market trends and operational status of the securities industry [1] Group 3: Investment Products - Investors without stock accounts may consider the Guotai CSI All Share Securities Company ETF Connect C (012363) and Guotai CSI All Share Securities Company ETF Connect A (012362) as potential investment options [1]