财经摆渡人 精研出品 破浪前行，共探财富新局 大家好欢迎收看【古今财鉴】 10月6号比特币还站在12.6万美元的历史高点，谁能想到一个多月后直接跌到9万美元附近。 短短四十多天里，全球加密货币总市值没了1.1万亿到1.2万亿美元，差不多是峰值时的四分之一。 网上到处喊"比特币崩盘了"，作为看了五年加密市场的观察者，我觉得这说法有点太夸张。 这波下跌最狠的要数10月10号，后来被市场叫做"10・10清算日"。 那天不到200亿美元的杠杆头寸被系统强制平仓，直接导致全网市值少了一万亿。 本来以为只是短期波动，没想到后续跌势没停，11月25号凌晨更夸张，比特币冲到9.9万后突然跳水， 短短几小时跌了6%，17万人瞬间爆仓，总金额高达5.47亿。 普通投资者可能没概念，这些爆仓的大多是加了20倍以上杠杆的投机者，相当于用一块钱博二十块的收 益，跌5%就血本无归。 外部环境已经够让市场紧张，加密市场自己的高杠杆更是火上浇油。 当前加密市场杠杆率还维持在18%的历史高位，这种情况下，价格稍微跌破关键位置就会引发连环爆 仓。 期货未平仓合约从10月的680亿美元降到410亿美元，去杠杆的过程还没结束，这也是后续价格难企稳的 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market is facing "ten major downside risks," including peak AI investment sentiment, persistent hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, rising election volatility, and tightening liquidity concerns [1][3] - AI investment sentiment is nearing saturation, with funds shifting from broad concept speculation to industry leaders with technological barriers and commercialization capabilities [3][4] - The credit market is under potential pressure due to high interest rates, which are increasing corporate financing costs and tightening bank credit standards [4][5] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve remains hawkish, with a 29% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, down from over 100% a month ago [4][5] - Economic data is lacking, leading to uncertainty in interest rate paths, with key data releases potentially missing before the December meeting [4][5] - The upcoming U.S. election is expected to increase market volatility, impacting investment decisions [4][5] Group 3 - Liquidity tightening is a critical risk, as the U.S. Treasury's general account funds are depleting, increasing pressure on financing markets [5][6] - Early cracks are appearing in the private credit market, which is vital for corporate financing [5][6] - U.S. stock valuations remain high, with weakening corporate profit growth against a backdrop of "perfect" pricing expectations [5][6] Group 4 - The U.S. stock market shows extreme concentration, with approximately 40% of funds in the S&P 500 directed towards the top ten constituents, indicating structural fragility [5][6] - A K-shaped economic recovery is evident, with widening consumption disparities between high-income and low-income groups, influencing trading strategies [6] - The cryptocurrency market's deleveraging poses risks to risk appetite, potentially leading to sell-offs in tech stocks and triggering cross-market reactions [6]