证券研究报告 | 海外市场周报 2025 年 08 月 25 日 [Table_Main] 海外市场周报 证券分析师 薛威 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 资格编号：S0120523070007 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn 分歧终弥合，静待新变量 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 薛威 资格编号：S0120523070007 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn 鲍威尔讲话弥合 9 月降息分歧，市场情绪受到提振。鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔会议上 的讲话释放鸽派信号，其表示"就业的下行风险正在增加"、"基准前景和不断变化 的风险平衡可能需要我们调整政策立场"，意味着 9 月降息的最后分歧被弥合。整 体来看，鲍威尔此次的放鸽超出市场的预期，在讲话之前，市场大多预期鲍威尔会 继续维持鹰派态度，原因有二：第一，杰克逊霍尔会议前多位美联储官员放出鹰派 风声，似在引导市场预期，CME 模型显示降息 25bp 的概率一度降至 75%；第二， 鲍威尔任期将于 2026 年 5 月结束，在此之前维持谨慎 ...

此外，阿里巴巴近期还宣布计划分拆斑马网络技术股份有限公司，并在香港联交所主板独立上市。斑马 智行的独立运作将使其在金融市场中获得独立估值，并进一步吸引特定领域的投资者。阿里巴巴仍将持 有斑马超过30%的股份，凸显其在智能汽车领域的战略布局。在国际化方面，阿里巴巴通过不断整合全 球资源，提升了其在全球市场的影响力。 对于投资者而言，阿里巴巴在不同领域的持续创新既是机遇，也是挑战。在电商领域，随着本地生活服 务市场的快速增长，阿里巴巴的即时零售业务或可实现大规模扩张。此外，智能汽车解决方案和AI技 术的发展也为其带来新的增长空间。不过，投资者仍需关注全球经济环境的变化以及科技行业的竞争态 势，这些因素都可能对阿里巴巴的长期表现产生重要影响。 综合而言，阿里巴巴的近期表现表明其在战略调整和市场适应方面的灵活性和前瞻性。未来，随着其核 心业务的进一步强化和全球布局的深入，阿里巴巴或将迎来更多增值机会。投资者可以考虑在关注市场 动态的同时，保持对阿里巴巴长期投资前景的关注。 （来源：美股情报站） 8月22日，阿里巴巴股价大幅上涨4.11%，这引起了市场的广泛关注。投资者的热情在过去一周被点 燃，部分归因于阿里巴巴官网的 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market's total market capitalization has surpassed 100 trillion yuan for the first time, with a daily trading volume of 2.81 trillion yuan, marking the third-highest in history [1] - The current market trend is characterized as a "systematic slow bull," which reflects a collective expectation for a gradual upward movement rather than a heated market [1] - Various sectors, including banking, energy, public utilities, and technology, are experiencing alternating rotations, contributing to the "slow bull" pattern without overheating the overall market [1] Group 2 - The ongoing exit of low-end production capacity due to the rectification of disorderly low-price competition is expected to enhance industry concentration and improve pricing power in globally competitive sectors, thereby boosting company performance and profits [2] - The influx of medium to long-term funds from state-owned commercial insurance companies and pension funds into the market has been a significant driver of the current market rally, alongside a reduction in U.S. asset allocations [2] - As of June 30, northbound capital holdings reached 2.29 trillion yuan, a 2.38% increase from the previous quarter, indicating growing foreign interest in A-shares [2] Group 3 - There is an expectation for further liquidity release in both domestic and international markets, with the Federal Reserve likely to enter a rate-cutting cycle, which would enhance global liquidity [3] - Positive factors such as liquidity, technological innovation, and improved market confidence are collectively driving the stock market upward, although maintaining low volatility remains a challenge [3] - It is crucial for market participants to avoid excessive speculation and maintain a stable market environment, learning from past experiences to ensure sustainable growth [3]

Group 1 - The current market is experiencing a "healthy bull" phase, characterized by a steady upward trend in A-shares and a consensus on the bull market's continuation [1][2] - The market is expected to serve the real economy, focusing on high-quality development and wealth effect to boost market confidence, indicating a gradual and stable market rather than volatile fluctuations [2][5] - Despite new index highs, most industries remain at moderate levels of crowding, allowing for a "multi-point blooming" market where various sectors and themes take turns in gaining attention [5][7] Group 2 - Institutional advantages are becoming more apparent as the market warms up, with active public funds showing significant performance gains, indicating a potential "institutional bull" market [7][11] - The number of new institutional accounts has surged to historical highs, suggesting a positive correlation with the issuance of equity funds [11][14] Group 3 - The brokerage sector is highlighted as a direct vehicle for the "healthy bull," with expected strong performance due to market activity and relatively low current valuations [15][16] - The AI sector has emerged as a strong market leader, showing no signs of overheating despite previous rapid gains, indicating a sustainable upward trend [18][24] Group 4 - The military industry is poised for growth due to upcoming events like military parades and the "Five-Year Plan" meeting, which historically catalyze stock performance [30][33] - The military sector is expected to benefit from both domestic strategic planning and increased global competitiveness, with significant order releases anticipated [36][37][38] Group 5 - The "anti-involution" theme is becoming a long-term focus, with policies aimed at breaking negative cycles and improving industry profitability, particularly in sectors like steel and glass [40][42] - Key industries involved in "anti-involution" are currently at historical lows in profitability and capital expenditure, indicating a strong willingness to participate in positive changes [42]

Group 1 - The seminar aimed to encourage private enterprises to respond to challenges and leverage technological innovation for transformation and upgrading, while drawing wisdom from traditional culture to contribute to economic prosperity [1] - Over 560 participants, including entrepreneurs and notable figures, gathered to discuss the promotion of the Great Wall spirit, driving technological innovation, and supporting enterprise development [1] - The Great Wall symbolizes the resilient spirit of the Chinese nation, emphasizing the need for private entrepreneurs to embrace challenges and focus on technological innovation as a driving force for transformation and development [1] Group 2 - Professor Jin Canrong analyzed the current domestic and international economic situation, highlighting the significance of promoting the Great Wall spirit in stimulating enterprise innovation and development [2] - The seminar featured discussions on AI technology applications in the private economy, providing enterprises with cutting-edge ideas and solutions for intelligent transformation [2] - A roundtable discussion with eight private entrepreneurs shared valuable experiences and successful cases, encouraging more enterprises to pursue innovation [2] Group 3 - Chen Guangbiao, a national moral model, was appointed as the Great Wall Public Welfare Ambassador, sharing his experiences in social responsibility and public welfare [3] - The seminar awarded medals and certificates to six leaders in technological innovation and pioneering enterprises, fostering a collaborative platform for information sharing and resource integration [3] - The event created a strong atmosphere for high-quality development in Zhejiang's private economy and AI technology, injecting spiritual motivation and practical pathways for private enterprises [3]

Core Viewpoint - H&H International Investment, managed by Duan Yongping, has made significant adjustments to its portfolio, notably increasing holdings in AI-related stocks like Google and NVIDIA, while also adding to positions in Apple and Pinduoduo, indicating a strong belief in AI's future potential and a focus on high-conviction investments [1][3][8]. Group 1: Portfolio Adjustments - H&H increased its stake in Google by 830,000 shares, a 75.17% increase, and in NVIDIA by 320,000 shares, a 49.56% increase, reflecting a strong commitment to AI investments [1][8]. - The firm also added 894,426 shares of Apple, marking a 2.61% increase, reversing a trend of previous reductions, which underscores a renewed confidence in Apple's long-term value [5][9]. - Pinduoduo saw an increase of 908,794 shares, a rise of 11.72%, solidifying its position as the third-largest holding in the portfolio [9]. Group 2: Sector Focus - The adjustments indicate a concentrated investment strategy in AI, with a clear preference for leading companies in the sector, while showing a selective approach by reducing positions in other tech giants like Microsoft and TSMC [8][9]. - The portfolio's total value reached $11.53 billion, with Apple representing over 62% of the total holdings, followed by Berkshire Hathaway at approximately 14.2% [3][6]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - The moves reflect a broader market sentiment towards AI, with Duan Yongping's actions signaling a strong belief in the growth potential of AI technologies, while also demonstrating a cautious approach by not fully committing to all major tech players [8][10].

Core Insights - The competition for AI talent among major internet companies has intensified as they launch campus recruitment for the 2026 graduating class, with a significant focus on AI-related positions [2][3][4] - There is a stark contrast in the AI job market, with top-tier companies eager to hire while many small and medium enterprises struggle to find suitable candidates [2][5] - The rapid expansion of AI undergraduate programs in China, with 621 universities now offering such degrees, has not resolved the underlying structural issues in talent supply and demand [2][9] Recruitment Trends - Baidu has initiated its campus recruitment for 2026, planning to issue over 4,000 offers, with more than 90% of these positions in AI [4] - ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent have also started their recruitment drives, with significant increases in the number of AI-related job openings [4][5] - The demand for AI talent is not only high among large tech firms but also growing among small and medium enterprises, which often face challenges in attracting qualified candidates [5][6] Talent Supply and Demand Dynamics - The AI job market exhibits a "pyramid" structure, where top-tier talent is in high demand but hard to find, while lower-tier positions are flooded with applicants [6][8] - A report indicates that the overall growth rate of new AI job positions is 36.82%, yet there is a talent gap exceeding 5 million in China [7] - Many job seekers, particularly those from less prestigious universities, struggle to secure desirable positions due to high competition and stringent requirements [7][10] Educational Gaps - The rapid establishment of AI programs in universities has not aligned with industry needs, leading to a mismatch between graduates' skills and employers' expectations [9][10] - Experts suggest that universities need to enhance their AI education quality by improving resources, faculty expertise, and practical training opportunities [9][10] - Bridging the gap between academia and industry is crucial for addressing the talent shortage and ensuring that graduates meet the evolving demands of the AI sector [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant increase in recruitment by major tech companies for AI-related positions during the autumn campus recruitment season, indicating a strategic shift towards AI talent as a critical resource for future competitiveness [1][2]. Group 1: Recruitment Trends - Major tech companies such as Tencent, Alibaba, ByteDance, JD, Xiaomi, Meituan, and Didi have collectively announced recruitment plans exceeding 50,000 positions, with a notable rise in AI-related roles [1][2]. - Tencent's 2026 campus recruitment focuses heavily on software development and technical research positions, particularly in the AI field, emphasizing a substantial increase in investment in AI talent [4]. - Alibaba's recruitment plan has expanded its AI-related positions to over 60%, with specific business units like Alibaba Cloud and DingTalk reaching 80% [7]. - Meituan plans to recruit 6,000 individuals for its 2026 campus recruitment, with over one-third of these positions being technical roles [8]. - ByteDance is offering over 5,000 positions, with a 23% year-on-year increase in research and development roles, particularly in algorithms and front-end development [9]. - JD is opening 35,000 positions, including 20,000 for fresh graduates and 15,000 for interns, across various sectors [10]. - Didi's recruitment includes diverse roles such as engineering, data, finance, and algorithms, reflecting a broadening of talent needs [11]. Group 2: Structural Changes in Talent Demand - The recruitment wave signals a recovery in the job market, with a structural shift in talent demand towards AI skills, highlighting the importance of AI talent in corporate strategies [11]. - Data from the Maimai platform indicates that 41.07% of employees in leading AI companies are considering job changes, significantly higher than the 14.65% in the broader internet sector [11]. - Over 1,000 AI companies are actively hiring, showcasing a competitive landscape for AI talent [11]. Group 3: Talent Development and Retention - Companies are increasingly focusing on long-term talent retention strategies, with 37.6% of firms raising starting salaries for fresh graduates and nearly 80% offering specialized training programs [14]. - Alibaba's "Ali Star" program aims to cultivate top AI talent, attracting over 200 young researchers and producing more than 3,000 research outcomes [14]. - Meituan has implemented a mentorship and rotation system for new hires, with over 70% of new graduates achieving promotions within their first year [15]. - The evolving landscape of AI is creating unprecedented opportunities for cross-disciplinary talent, as seen in the increasing number of non-technical graduates securing positions in major tech firms [15][16].

Group 1 - The market is expected to show a "first suppression and then rise" pattern in August, with a consolidation phase in early to mid-August and a potential recovery towards the end of the month [1][2] - Economic recovery is weak but supported by continuous policy stability and liquidity easing, with incremental funds flowing into the market [1][2] - Focus on "dumbbell strategy" for investment, balancing between high-quality growth stocks and sectors like AI, military trade, semiconductors, and innovative pharmaceuticals [1][2][3] Group 2 - The market is likely to experience increased volatility in August, with a preference for mainstream styles and small-cap stocks due to liquidity-driven market characteristics [3] - Key sectors to watch include non-bank financials, pharmaceuticals, power equipment, machinery, defense, and computers, with a focus on high-growth areas like AI applications and hardware [3][5] - The upcoming earnings season is crucial, with expectations for improved performance in high-demand sectors [4][5] Group 3 - Liquidity is expected to remain ample in August, with continued net inflows from financing, private equity, and industry ETFs, despite potential tightening pressures from government bond supply [4] - The market's risk appetite is improving, with significant net inflows into A-shares, indicating a positive trend for the second half of the year [4][5] - The focus on sectors with high profitability and competitive advantages, such as TMT and essential consumer goods, is recommended for investment [5][6] Group 4 - The World Artificial Intelligence Conference showcased significant advancements in AI commercialization, with over 800 companies participating and a record exhibition area [6] - The conference highlighted the growing importance of AI technologies and their applications across various industries, indicating a strong investment trend in this sector [6] Group 5 - The political landscape and economic policies are expected to support a stable recovery, with a focus on enhancing the attractiveness of the capital market and fostering long-term growth [24][25] - The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session is anticipated to set the stage for the "15th Five-Year Plan," which will focus on new productive forces and technological innovation [26][27]

北京时间今晚20:30即将公布的7月非农就业数据，已成为市场情绪的关键锚点。在经历了连续三天的美股调整之后，华尔街目前正处于一个高度敏感的节点 上。一方面，科技巨头的财报普遍优于预期，微软、Meta、谷歌等企业展现了在AI驱动下的高增长能力，试图重新点燃市场的风险偏好；另一方面，美联 储在特朗普政府不断施压的情况下，依然维持高利率立场，体现了对通胀风险的高度警惕。这种多空交织的格局，使得非农数据的重要性被进一步放大。 从周四公布的核心PCE物价指数来看，年率超出市场预期，强化了美联储"暂不降息"的合理性。通胀虽已不再失控，但依旧存在粘性。而美联储的双重使命 决定了，它既不能在通胀未稳前贸然转向，也不能在就业出现系统性恶化时继续紧缩。因此，今晚的非农数据不仅是判断劳动力市场健康度的重要依据，也 可能是鲍威尔下一步货币政策态度转变的分水岭。 而对特朗普而言，非农数据同样是一场博弈。他正在为连任铺路，高利率带来的消费和借贷成本压力显然不利于选情。他需要一个"疲弱但不过度崩塌"的数 据，足以指责美联储让就业承压，却又不至于引发金融市场的系统性风险。而鲍威尔则更关心长期通胀预期是否再度抬头，以及就业回落是否只是结构性调 ...