吴说获悉，据 @_FORAB 披露，Tom Lee 的基金 Fundstrat 在给内部客户最新 2026 年加密货币策略建议 中称上半年会出现较深回调，目标价格为 BTC 60000 – 65000、ETH 1800 – 2000、SOL 50 – 75。而 Tom Lee 刚刚在币安区块链周表示，3000 美金的以太坊被严重低估。他曾经指 2025 年底以太坊应该达到 1.5 万美金。Tom Lee 基金 Fundstrat 内部报告称市场将大幅回调。 （来源：吴说） ...

Core Viewpoint - ARK Invest, led by Cathie Wood, is increasing its investments in the cryptocurrency sector despite a significant market downturn, indicating a bullish stance amidst widespread pessimism [1][3]. Group 1: Investment Actions - ARK Invest purchased nearly $600,000 worth of Bitcoin ETFs, specifically through its own ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB), showcasing a contrarian approach to the current market sentiment [9]. - The firm has been actively buying shares of crypto-related companies, including Bullish, BitMine, Circle, and Robinhood, with notable purchases totaling approximately $10.1 million in Coinbase, $9.9 million in BitMine, and $9 million in Circle on a single day [10][11]. - Over the week, ARK's total investments included about $2 million in Bullish, $830,000 in BitMine, and smaller amounts in Circle and Robinhood, reflecting a systematic accumulation strategy [5][7]. Group 2: Market Context - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing one of the largest outflows of funds since the launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs, with nearly $1 billion in net outflows recorded on a single day, marking the second-largest daily outflow in history [3]. - Bitcoin prices have dropped approximately 30% from recent highs, contributing to a cumulative net outflow of around $4 billion from these ETF products over the past month [3]. - ARK's actions contrast sharply with the broader market, which is facing significant investor confidence issues, as evidenced by the substantial outflows from Bitcoin ETFs [9].

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market has experienced a significant downturn, with Bitcoin dropping to its lowest price since April 7, 2023, at $81,111, marking a decline of over 10% in the past 24 hours [1][3]. Market Performance - Bitcoin's price fell to $81,111, down 10.10% in the last 24 hours, with a trading volume of approximately $124.9 billion [4]. - Ethereum dropped to $2,700.42, reflecting a 10.22% decrease, with a trading volume of around $53.25 billion [4]. - Other cryptocurrencies such as Ripple, Solana, and Dogecoin also saw declines exceeding 10% [3][4]. Liquidation Data - Over 400,000 traders were liquidated in the past 24 hours, with a total liquidation amount of $1.968 billion (approximately 14 billion RMB), primarily from long positions totaling $1.83 billion [5]. - The liquidation data indicates a significant impact on the market, with $1.05 billion liquidated in the last four hours alone [5]. Global Market Impact - The cryptocurrency market's decline is part of a broader trend, with global markets also experiencing downturns due to a significant drop in U.S. stock markets [6]. - Major indices in South Korea, Japan, and Europe reported substantial losses, reflecting a collective market downturn [6]. Economic Factors - Uncertainty regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has heightened concerns about Bitcoin's price stability [9]. - Strong employment data in the U.S. complicates the Fed's decision-making regarding interest rates, with expectations of three rate cuts in 2024 [9]. ETF Market Dynamics - The recent sell-off in the cryptocurrency market is attributed to retail investors liquidating their positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, rather than native cryptocurrency traders [10]. - Approximately $4 billion has flowed out of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs this month, surpassing previous records [10]. Warnings from Industry Leaders - Ethereum co-founder has issued a stark warning about the potential catastrophic consequences of a sudden drop in Bitcoin prices [11].

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market has experienced a significant downturn, with over $140 billion in market value evaporating, as major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum hit new lows [1][5]. Market Performance - On September 26, Bitcoin fell below $110,000, while Ethereum dropped below $3,900, marking a seven-week low. Bitcoin decreased by 2.22%, and Ethereum by 2.99% [1][2]. - The total liquidation amount in the last 24 hours exceeded $882 million, with nearly 290,000 traders liquidated. Ethereum investors have now surpassed Bitcoin investors in terms of liquidation amounts [3][4]. Company Impact - Several publicly traded companies holding cryptocurrencies saw significant stock price declines, with MicroStrategy (MSTR.O) and Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA.O) dropping approximately 7% and 9%, respectively [4]. - Despite a brief recovery in stock prices after the market opened, both companies' stocks turned negative again, with declines remaining under 1% [4]. Investor Behavior - Since the beginning of the week, investors have withdrawn nearly $300 million from U.S.-listed Ethereum ETFs. A sudden market drop led to the forced liquidation of $1.7 billion in long positions [5]. - Analysts suggest that the current market downturn is driven by macroeconomic factors, negative news, and technical indicators, with a continued adjustment period expected [5][6]. Ethereum Focus - Ethereum's price has seen a notable increase from $1,613 to $4,886 since April, but it has experienced a 15% decline in September. Analysts warn that if Ethereum falls below $3,800, it could trigger further liquidations [6]. - The supply of Ethereum on exchanges has dropped to a nine-year low, indicating that long-term holders are accumulating, but selling pressure from holders is counteracting new inflows [6]. Market Sentiment - The overall sentiment in the cryptocurrency market is bearish, with a trend of de-risking observed. Assets lacking solid fundamentals are the most affected during market fluctuations [6][7]. - Upcoming expirations of over $17 billion in Bitcoin and approximately $5.3 billion in Ethereum open contracts may further influence market dynamics [7].

Core Viewpoint - Ethereum has fallen below the $3900 mark, reaching a nearly seven-week low, continuing a significant market correction that has seen over $140 billion evaporated from the entire cryptocurrency market [1] Market Performance - On September 25, Ethereum dropped over 7% to a low of $3823, with a daily decline of 6.55% [1] - In the last 24 hours, approximately 250,000 traders were liquidated, with total liquidation exceeding $1.1 billion [3] - Bitcoin and Solana experienced significant declines, with Bitcoin down 3.62% and Solana down 7.2% [4] Institutional Activity - Institutional fund inflows have decreased, intensifying selling pressure, with nearly $300 million withdrawn from U.S.-listed Ethereum ETFs since Monday [5] - A sudden market drop on Monday led to the forced liquidation of $1.7 billion in long positions, impacting nearly all major cryptocurrencies [5] Long-term Holder Behavior - Despite Ethereum's exchange supply dropping to a nine-year low, indicating long-term holders are accumulating, selling pressure from these holders is counteracting positive inflows [6] - Over the past month, investors have purchased over 2.7 million Ethereum, valued at over $11.3 billion, reflecting strong confidence in Ethereum's long-term potential [6] - The active holder metric has been rising, suggesting that long-term holders are selling rather than accumulating, which may lead to further price declines if this trend continues [6]

Core Viewpoint - Ethereum has fallen below the $4000 mark, reaching a nearly seven-week low, contributing to a significant market correction in the cryptocurrency sector, with over $140 billion in market value evaporated [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - On September 25, Ethereum experienced a maximum decline of 4.7%, hitting a low of $3969, while Bitcoin also saw a decrease of 1.7% [3]. - In the past 24 hours, approximately 130,000 traders were liquidated, with total liquidation amounts exceeding $400 million [3]. Group 2: Institutional Investment and Market Dynamics - The cooling of institutional fund inflows has intensified selling pressure, with nearly $300 million withdrawn from U.S.-listed Ethereum ETFs since Monday [5]. - A sudden market drop on Monday led to the forced liquidation of $1.7 billion in long positions, impacting nearly all major cryptocurrencies [5]. - Analysts indicate that Ethereum's recent downturn is attributed to reduced institutional inflows and short-term technical indicators showing pressure [5]. Group 3: Long-term Holder Behavior - Despite Ethereum's supply on exchanges dropping to a nine-year low, indicating that investors are withdrawing tokens for long-term holding, the market still faces selling pressure from long-term holders [6]. - Over the past month, investors have purchased more than 2.7 million Ethereum, valued at over $11.3 billion, reflecting strong confidence in Ethereum's long-term potential [6]. - However, the rising activity metrics for long-term holders suggest that these investors are selling rather than accumulating, leading to a stalemate between bullish and bearish market forces [6]. - If long-term holders continue to sell significantly, Ethereum's price may face further declines, potentially testing the $3910 level, which could undermine current bullish expectations [6].

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a phase of adjustment after a previous upward trend, with Bitcoin and Ethereum both seeing price corrections, which analysts consider a healthy correction within the overall bullish trend [1][3]. Market Analysis - Bitcoin has retreated from above $120,000, with current prices around $115,231, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 23.51%. Analysts highlight a significant volume gap between $110,000 and $112,000, indicating strong market demand for recovery [3]. - Ethereum is currently priced at $4,309.03, with a year-to-date increase of 29.54%. The $4,100 level is identified as a critical support point, with market opinions divided on potential price movements [4]. Trading Environment - The XBIT decentralized exchange platform is noted for its real-time data tracking and diverse trading scenarios, which help investors navigate market volatility and capture opportunities [1][6]. - The platform's unique features, such as "long-short ratio tracking" and "smart range alerts," provide users with tools to monitor market sentiment and adjust strategies accordingly [3][4]. Institutional Activity - The top 100 listed companies hold a total of 975,475 Bitcoins, with 13 institutions increasing their holdings recently, providing insights for long-term investment strategies [3]. - Ethereum's recent spot ETF saw a net inflow of $2.85 billion, marking a historical high, which indicates strong institutional interest [4]. Upcoming Events - Key events, including geopolitical meetings and new token listings, are expected to influence market sentiment and price movements in the coming week [6]. - The XBIT platform has optimized its trading mechanisms to address event-driven market fluctuations, enhancing user experience during significant market changes [6].