Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rapeseed meal, the fast planting progress and good excellent rate of US soybeans continue to constrain the US soybean market, but the positive sentiment from the Sino - US framework agreement benefits domestic meal prices through cost transmission. In China, the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans increases oil - mill operating rates, suppressing the meal market. The peak season of aquaculture boosts rapeseed meal demand, and the tight old - crop inventory of Canadian rapeseed and the "weather - dominated" growth stage are factors to watch. However, the expected easing of Sino - Canadian trade relations may increase supply and drag down prices. Short - term participation is recommended for rapeseed meal futures [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the seasonal production increase in palm oil producing areas and high domestic oil - mill inventory pressure constrain prices. The expected easing of Sino - Canadian trade relations may increase supply. But the relatively firm price of Canadian rapeseed provides support. Rapeseed oil trends stronger than soybean and palm oil, and short - term participation is recommended while paying attention to Sino - Canadian trade relations [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil (active contract) is 9178 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan; rapeseed meal (active contract) is 2674 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan; ICE rapeseed (active) is 695.1 Canadian dollars/ton, up 2.3 Canadian dollars; rapeseed (active contract) is 5053 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (9 - 1) is 148 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; rapeseed meal (9 - 1) is 311 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil is 284550 lots, down 2578 lots; rapeseed meal is 573176 lots, up 25259 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil is 37089 lots, up 6130 lots; rapeseed meal is 20123 lots, up 16817 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil is 0, unchanged; rapeseed meal is 26315, down 96 [2]. 2. Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9350 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2570 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged; fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8020 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong is 8350 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2880 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Average price: Rapeseed oil is 9353.75 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. - Import cost price: Imported rapeseed is 5274.5 yuan/ton, up 37.95 yuan [2]. - Basis: Rapeseed oil main - contract basis is 201 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; rapeseed meal main - contract basis is - 104 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan [2]. - Spreads: Rapeseed - soybean oil spot spread is 1300 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; rapeseed - palm oil spot spread is 900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; soybean - rapeseed meal spot spread is 310 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. 3. Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast: 85.17 million tons, down 1.01 million tons; annual rapeseed production forecast is 12378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Import quantities: Total rapeseed imports are 48.92 million tons, up 24.24 million tons; rapeseed oil and mustard oil imports are 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; rapeseed meal imports are 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons [2]. - Oil - mill inventory: Total rapeseed inventory is 25 million tons, unchanged; coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 14.3 million tons, down 0.65 million tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 1.9 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; East China rapeseed oil inventory is 61.2 million tons, down 0.75 million tons; East China rapeseed meal inventory is 38.18 million tons, down 0.86 million tons; Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory is 7.4 million tons, unchanged; South China rapeseed meal inventory is 25.2 million tons, up 1.5 million tons [2]. - Operating rates: Imported rapeseed weekly operating rate is 19.19%, down 4.53 percentage points [2]. - Pressing profit: Imported rapeseed disk pressing profit is 36 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan [2]. 4. Downstream Situation - Feed production: The monthly value is 2777.2 million tons, down 66.4 million tons [2]. - Edible vegetable oil production: The monthly value is 440.4 million tons, down 87 million tons [2]. - Catering revenue: The monthly value is 4167 billion yuan, down 68 billion yuan [2]. 5. Option Market - Implied volatility: Rapeseed meal at - the - money call option is 21.79%, down 0.07 percentage points; at - the - money put option is 21.81%, down 0.05 percentage points; rapeseed oil at - the - money call option is 14.7%, down 0.1 percentage points; at - the - money put option is 14.69%, down 0.11 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility: 20 - day rapeseed meal is 16.79%, up 0.31 percentage points; 60 - day rapeseed meal is 21.44%, down 0.03 percentage points; 20 - day rapeseed oil is 11.31%, down 0.27 percentage points; 60 - day rapeseed oil is 13.47%, up 0.01 percentage points [2]. 6. Industry News - Canadian rapeseed futures on the ICE closed higher on Wednesday, following the upward trends of Chicago soybean oil and international crude oil futures. The 7 - month contract rose 5.10 Canadian dollars to 714.30 Canadian dollars/ton; the 11 - month contract rose 2.70 Canadian dollars to 693.90 Canadian dollars/ton; the 1 - month contract rose 2.90 Canadian dollars to 701.30 Canadian dollars/ton [2]. - As of the week ending June 8, 2025, the excellent rate of US soybeans was 68% as expected [2]. 7. Key Points to Watch - The rapeseed operating rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventories in various regions from My Agricultural Network on Monday, and the trends of Sino - Canadian and Canada - US trade disputes [2].

菜籽系产业日报 2025-06-11 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) 菜油月间差(9-1):(日,元/吨) | 9149 141 | -39 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) -1 菜粕月间价差(9-1)(日,元/吨) | 2638 289 | 9 | | 期货市场 | | | | | 16 | | | 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 287128 | -1958 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 547917 | -4152 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | 30959 | -12008 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | 3306 | 15019 | | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) 期货收盘价(活跃):ICE油菜籽(日,加元/吨) | 0 692.8 | 0 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) ...