1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rapeseed meal, the domestic rapeseed meal market is influenced by multiple factors. Internationally, the current growth of Canadian rapeseed is in the "weather - dominated" stage, with favorable rainfall and mild temperatures in the Canadian prairies this week, which puts pressure on the market. The US soybean has a high - yield expectation despite a slightly lower - than - expected good rate. Domestically, the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans has led to a high oil - mill operating rate and a loose short - term supply of soybean meal, suppressing the price of the meal market. However, the uncertainty of fourth - quarter purchases provides support for the forward market. The peak season of aquaculture boosts the feed demand for rapeseed meal, but the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The domestic rapeseed meal market is generally stronger than the overseas market and maintains a relatively strong operation [2]. - For rapeseed oil, globally, the increase in palm oil production and decline in exports in Malaysia from July 1 - 20 and the significant increase in Indonesian exports, along with positive news in the US and Indonesian biodiesel sectors, affect the global oil market. Domestically, it is the off - season for oil consumption, the supply of vegetable oil is relatively loose, and the high inventory pressure of rapeseed oil mills restricts the market price. However, the decrease in the oil - mill operating rate reduces the output pressure of rapeseed oil, and the fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter may ease the long - term pressure [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil futures is 9456 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 2758 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan. The 9 - 1 month spread of rapeseed oil is 53 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 314 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil are 8215 lots, down 323 lots; for rapeseed meal are 34003 lots, down 6409 lots. The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 3487, unchanged; that of rapeseed meal is 0, unchanged. The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed futures is 690 Canadian dollars/ton, down 1 Canadian dollar; that of domestic rapeseed futures is 5165 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9650 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the average price is 9690 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2660 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The oil - meal ratio is 3.55, down 0.05. The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 173 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan; that of the rapeseed meal main contract is - 98 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan. The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing is 8280 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1350 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 650 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan. The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2920 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 260 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The global predicted annual output of rapeseed is 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the annual predicted output of rapeseed in a certain region is 12378 thousand tons, unchanged. The total monthly import volume of rapeseed is 18.45 tons, down 15.1 tons. The import cost of imported rapeseed is 4948.05 yuan/ton, down 0.8 yuan. The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 200,000 tons, up 50,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 15.72%, up 5.86 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 340,000 tons, up 100,000 tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal is 287,900 tons, up 41,300 tons. The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 92,500 tons, down 400 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 12,000 tons, down 3,100 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region is 584,500 tons, down 8,200 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory is 351,300 tons, down 29,100 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 56,000 tons, down 3,200 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 270,000 tons, down 12,000 tons. The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil is 29,100 tons, down 3,800 tons; that of rapeseed meal is 23,200 tons, down 1,400 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 2,762,100 tons, up 98,100 tons. The monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 440,400 tons, down 87,000 tons. The monthly total retail sales of consumer goods in the catering industry is 45.782 billion yuan, up 4.112 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 22.88%, up 0.82 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 22.89%, up 0.83 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 12.54%, down 4.07 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 16.84%, down 0.28 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 14.89%, up 0.65 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 14.89%, up 0.65 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 10.75%, down 0.55 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 12.9%, up 0.01 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On July 22, ICE rapeseed futures fell for the second consecutive day due to beneficial rainfall and mild temperatures in the Canadian prairies this week, which supported the crop yield outlook. The benchmark November rapeseed futures closed 4.10 Canadian dollars lower at 690.00 Canadian dollars per ton. As of the week ending July 20, 2025, the good rate of US soybeans was 68%, lower than analysts' expectations of 71% and the previous week's 70%, but still at a high level in the same period, and the weather in the US soybean - producing areas was good, with a strong high - yield expectation [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **General Situation**: The report analyzes the supply - demand, price trends, and influencing factors of the rapeseed - related products (rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal) in both domestic and international markets. It points out that the prices of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil are affected by multiple factors such as international market trends, domestic supply - demand, and policy - related uncertainties [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: In the international market, the good weather in the US soybean - producing areas leads to a high expected yield, and the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans in China increases the supply of soybean meal, which suppresses the price of rapeseed meal. However, the upcoming peak season of aquaculture boosts the demand for rapeseed meal, but the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens this demand. The price of rapeseed meal may fluctuate in the short - term [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Internationally, the increase in Malaysian palm oil inventory and the decline in exports put pressure on the market. Domestically, the off - season of oil consumption, high inventory of rapeseed oil in factories, and the weakening of rapeseed in the international market drag down the price of domestic rapeseed oil. Although the decline in factory operating rates and the small number of rapeseed purchases in the third quarter may support the price, the short - term volatility of rapeseed oil may intensify [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of active contracts for rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, ICE rapeseed, and domestic rapeseed all decreased. The prices of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal were 9404 yuan/ton and 2655 yuan/ton respectively, showing a decrease of 20 yuan/ton and 4 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spreads and Positions**: The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil decreased by 13 yuan/ton to 68 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed meal decreased by 12 yuan/ton to 343 yuan/ton. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil decreased by 2216 lots to 14433 lots, while that of rapeseed meal increased by 9308 lots to 14223 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 3510, and that of rapeseed meal decreased by 2380 to 10086 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu decreased by 70 yuan/ton to 9540 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed meal in Nantong increased by 10 yuan/ton to 2560 yuan/ton. The average price of rapeseed oil decreased by 70 yuan/ton to 9580 yuan/ton [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The oil - meal ratio decreased by 0.05 to 3.64. The spot price spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 1340 yuan/ton, and that between rapeseed oil and palm oil decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 770 yuan/ton. The spot price spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 270 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Production and Imports**: The global rapeseed production forecast increased by 0.21 million tons to 89.77 million tons. The total monthly import volume of rapeseed decreased by 15.37 tons to 33.55 tons, and the import cost of rapeseed decreased by 6.55 yuan/ton to 4887.11 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills increased by 5 tons to 20 tons, and the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed decreased by 2.67% to 9.86% [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Imports and Inventories**: The monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil increased by 10 tons to 34 tons, and that of rapeseed meal increased by 4.13 tons to 28.79 tons. The weekly inventory of rapeseed oil in coastal areas decreased by 0.72 tons to 9.29 tons, and that of rapeseed meal increased by 1.05 tons to 1.51 tons [2]. - **Inventory in Different Regions**: The inventory of rapeseed oil in the East China region decreased by 0.68 tons to 59.27 tons, and that of rapeseed meal increased by 2.46 tons to 38.04 tons. The inventory of rapeseed oil in the Guangxi region decreased by 0.3 tons to 6.9 tons, and that of rapeseed meal in the South China region decreased by 1.1 tons to 28.2 tons [2]. - **提货 Volume**: The weekly提货 volume of rapeseed oil increased by 1.18 tons to 3.29 tons, and that of rapeseed meal increased by 0.14 tons to 2.46 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Production and Consumption**: The monthly production of feed increased by 98.1 tons to 2762.1 tons, and the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry increased by 411.2 billion yuan to 4578.2 billion yuan. The monthly production of edible vegetable oil decreased by 87 tons to 440.4 tons [2]. 3.6 Option Market - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for rapeseed meal increased, with the call option increasing by 1.25% to 19.42% and the put option increasing by 1.41% to 19.43%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for rapeseed oil also increased, both by about 1% [2]. - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal decreased by 0.08% to 14.6%, and the 60 - day historical volatility decreased by 1.12% to 16.79%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil decreased by 0.44% to 11.38%, and the 60 - day historical volatility decreased by 0.02% to 13.17% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - **Rapeseed Futures**: On Monday, Canadian rapeseed futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) closed lower, with the benchmark contract down 0.1%. The prices of different contracts decreased by 0.1 - 1.3 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - **Soybean Situation**: As of July 13, 2025, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%, 4 percentage points higher than the previous week and higher than the analyst's expectation. The concentrated arrival of imported soybeans in China led to a high operating rate of oil mills and a loose short - term supply of soybean meal [2]. - **Palm Oil Situation**: The Malaysian palm oil inventory increased by 2.41% to 203 tons at the end of June, and the export of Malaysian palm oil from July 1 - 15 decreased [2]. 3.8 Key Points to Watch - **Data**: The rapeseed operating rate and the inventory of rapeseed oil and meal in different regions released by Myagric on Monday are important data to watch [2]. - **Trade Disputes**: The development of trade disputes between China and Canada, and between Canada and the US may affect the rapeseed market [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, rapeseed oil futures fluctuated and closed higher, with the 09 contract closing at 9,607 yuan/ton, up 141 yuan/ton from the previous week. Rapeseed meal futures also fluctuated and closed higher, with the 09 contract closing at 2,597 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton from the previous week [6][7][10]. - For rapeseed oil, the Canadian government has adjusted the estimated production and planting area of rapeseed, and the current growth of Canadian rapeseed is in the "weather - dominated" stage. The continuous drought in western Canada has raised concerns about rapeseed yields. International biodiesel policies support the palm oil and soybean oil markets. In China, it is the off - season for oil consumption, with sufficient vegetable oil supply and high inventory pressure on rapeseed oil mills. However, the decline in the mill's operating rate has reduced the output pressure of rapeseed oil, and the Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations may tighten again, which may affect rapeseed exports to China [7]. - For rapeseed meal, the USDA report shows that the US soybean inventory has increased, and the planting area has decreased. The good condition of US soybeans restricts the market price. In China, the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans has increased the operating rate of oil mills, and the supply is relatively loose, which suppresses the price of rapeseed meal. Although it is the peak season for aquaculture, the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand for rapeseed meal [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary Rapeseed Oil - Strategy: Participate in the short - term [6]. - Market review: The 09 contract of rapeseed oil futures closed at 9,607 yuan/ton, up 141 yuan/ton from the previous week [7]. - Market outlook: The estimated production of Canadian rapeseed in 2024 has been increased, but the planting area in 2025 has been revised down. The dry weather in western Canada has affected the yield expectations. International biodiesel policies support the palm oil and soybean oil markets. In China, it is the off - season for oil consumption, with sufficient supply and high inventory pressure on mills. However, the decline in the mill's operating rate and the possible tightening of Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations are factors to be considered [7]. Rapeseed Meal - Strategy: Participate in the short - term and pay attention to Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations [9]. - Market review: The 09 contract of rapeseed meal futures closed at 2,597 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton from the previous week [10]. - Market outlook: The USDA report shows that the US soybean inventory has increased and the planting area has decreased. The good condition of US soybeans restricts the price. In China, the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans has increased the supply of rapeseed meal, and the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand for rapeseed meal [10]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position - Rapeseed oil futures fluctuated and closed higher, with a total position of 323,968 lots, an increase of 4,565 lots from the previous week. The top 20 net long positions increased from +23,230 to +24,789 [16][21]. - Rapeseed meal futures fluctuated and closed higher, with a total position of 564,558 lots, a decrease of 28,543 lots from the previous week. The top 20 net short positions decreased from - 35,816 to - 4,491 [16][21]. Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil are 805 lots, and those of rapeseed meal are 16,232 lots [25][26]. Spot Price and Basis - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9,730 yuan/ton, showing a rebound. The basis between the active contract of rapeseed oil and the spot price in Jiangsu is +123 yuan/ton [35]. - The spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Jiangsu is 2,430 yuan/ton, showing a slight rebound. The basis between the spot price in Jiangsu and the active contract of rapeseed meal is - 167 yuan/ton [41]. Futures Inter - monthly Spread - The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil is +71 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period in recent years. The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed meal is +271 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period in recent years [47]. Futures - Spot Ratio - The ratio of the 09 contract of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal is 3.699, and the average ratio of spot prices is 4.0 [50]. Spread between Rapeseed Oil and Other Oils/Meals - The spread between the 09 contract of rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1,663 yuan/ton, and the spread between the 09 contract of rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1,135 yuan/ton, both showing narrow - range fluctuations this week [59]. - The spread between the 09 contract of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 357 yuan/ton, and the spot spread as of Thursday is 340 yuan/ton [65]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation Rapeseed - Supply: As of June 27, 2025, the total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 150,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week. The estimated arrival volumes of rapeseed in June, July, and August 2025 are 260,000 tons, 130,000 tons, and 485,000 tons respectively. As of July 3, the spot crushing profit of imported rapeseed is +222 yuan/ton. As of the 26th week of 2025, the crushing volume of rapeseed in major coastal oil mills is 56,500 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from the previous week, with an operating rate of 13.82%. In May 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed is 335,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 26.12% and a month - on - month decrease of 153,800 tons [69][74][78][82]. Rapeseed Oil - Supply: As of the end of the 26th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed oil in China is 884,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.04%. In May 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed oil is 111,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.31% and a month - on - month decrease of 70,900 tons [87]. - Demand: As of March 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 4.404 million tons. As of May 31, the catering revenue is 457.82 billion yuan. As of the end of the 26th week of 2025, the contract volume of imported and crushed rapeseed oil is 159,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 8.13% [91][95]. Rapeseed Meal - Supply: As of the end of the 26th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed meal in China is 9,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 27.12%. In May 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed meal is 194,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36.06% and a month - on - month decrease of 103,900 tons [99][103]. - Demand: As of May 31, 2025, the monthly output of feed is 2.7621 million tons [107]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis - As of July 4, the implied volatility of rapeseed meal options is 17.22%, a decrease of 1.77% from the previous week, at a level comparable to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [110].

压力。不过，加菜籽价格相对坚挺，成本传到下，给国内菜油市场价格带来支撑。盘面来看，受加菜籽支撑，菜油走势较豆棕偏强 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ ，短线参与为主，关注中加贸易关系变化。 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 菜籽系产业日报 2025-06-12 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9178 | 29 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2674 | 36 | | | 菜油月间差(9-1):(日,元/吨) | 148 | 7 菜粕月间价差(9-1)(日,元/吨) | 311 | 22 | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 284550 | -2578 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 573176 | 25259 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | 37089 | 6130 ...