菜籽系产业日报 2025-11-25 重点关注 周一我的农产品网油菜籽开机率及各地区菜油粕库存量，中加贸易关系走向 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 40 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 9818 | 2431 | -15 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - **Rapeseed Meal**: The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The supply - side pressure is small due to the limited import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal and the shutdown of coastal oil mills. However, the demand for rapeseed meal is weakening as aquaculture demand decreases with the drop in temperature, and soybean supply is relatively abundant with good substitution advantages. The market has large fluctuations recently, and short - term observation is recommended. Later, attention should be paid to whether there are breakthroughs in China - Canada trade policies [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The international oil market is weak, but the domestic rapeseed oil will continue to be in a destocking mode, which supports its price. However, the demand for rapeseed oil is mainly for rigid needs because of the abundant supply and good substitution advantage of soybean oil. After a continuous rise, the rapeseed oil futures price has slightly declined recently, with large short - term fluctuations, and short - term participation is recommended [2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Futures Market** - **Prices**: The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (active contract) is 9779 yuan/ton, down 34; the closing price of rapeseed meal futures (active contract) is 2412 yuan/ton, down 7; the closing price of ICE rapeseed futures (active) is 650.2 Canadian dollars/ton, down 5.7; the closing price of rapeseed futures (active contract) is 5551 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Spreads**: The rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (1 - 5) is 380 yuan/ton, up 17; the rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (1 - 5) is 35 yuan/ton, up 3 [2]. - **Positions**: The position of the main rapeseed oil contract is 233465 lots, down 9832; the position of the main rapeseed meal contract is 377665 lots, down 9671. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil are - 3446 lots, down 2701; for rapeseed meal are - 22471 lots, down 5559 [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 4131, down 30; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts is 2000, unchanged [2]. **Spot Market** - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10070 yuan/ton, down 100; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of rapeseed oil is 10163.75 yuan/ton, down 100; the import cost of rapeseed is 7986.7 yuan/ton, down 89.01 [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract is 291 yuan/ton, down 66; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract is - 12 yuan/ton, up 7 [2]. **Substitute Spot Prices** - The spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Nanjing is 8560 yuan/ton, down 100; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8670 yuan/ton, down 70; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3000 yuan/ton, down 50 [2]. - The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1510 yuan/ton, unchanged; between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1400 yuan/ton, down 30; between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 600 yuan/ton, down 50 [2]. **Upstream Situation** - **Production**: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast production of rapeseed is 13446 thousand tons, up 1068 thousand tons [2]. - **Imports and Profits**: The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 11.53 tons, down 13.13 tons; the import rapeseed crushing profit is 659 yuan/ton, up 29 [2]. - **Inventory and开机率**: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 0.25 tons, down 0.25 tons; the weekly开机率 of imported rapeseed is 0%, unchanged [2]. **Industry Situation** - **Imports**: The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 16 tons, up 2 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal in the current month is 15.77 tons, down 5.57 tons [2]. - **Inventory**: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 2.08 tons, down 0.52 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0.2 tons, down 0.3 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 40.05 tons, down 2.37 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 22.96 tons, down 2.49 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 1.48 tons, down 0.32 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 22.3 tons, up 1.5 tons [2]. - **Pick - up Volume**: The weekly pick - up volume of rapeseed oil is 1.01 tons, down 0.3 tons; the weekly pick - up volume of rapeseed meal is 0.3 tons, up 0.1 tons [2]. **Downstream Situation** - The monthly output of feed is 3128.7 tons, up 201.5 tons; the monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 495 tons, up 44.4 tons; the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 5199 billion yuan, up 690.4 billion yuan [2]. **Options Market** - **Rapeseed Meal Options**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 20.4%, down 0.33; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 21.96%, down 0.05; the 20 - day historical volatility is 21.43%, down 0.03; the 60 - day historical volatility is 20.4%, down 0.32 [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil Options**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 13.7%, up 0.24; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 13.69%, up 0.23; the 20 - day historical volatility is 15.04%, up 0.13; the 60 - day historical volatility is 13.75%, up 0.05 [2]. **Industry News** - ICE rapeseed futures closed lower on Wednesday, dragged down by the decline of other vegetable oil and crude oil futures. The January rapeseed futures contract fell 6 Canadian dollars and settled at 650.40 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - USDA unexpectedly lowered the US soybean export forecast for 2025/26. Although the domestic soybean crushing consumption in the US is good and Chinese buyers started to purchase US soybeans this week, the soybean market was sold off after the report was released [2]. - The China - Canada trade negotiation has not made a breakthrough on the rapeseed tariff issue. The export of Canadian rapeseed has declined significantly this year, but the Canadian biofuel production incentive plan takes rapeseed oil as the core raw material, and Canada and Pakistan have reached an agreement to promote the export of Canadian rapeseed to Pakistan [2]. - The US government is considering postponing the plan to cut biofuel import incentives by 1 - 2 years, and the palm oil production in Malaysia increased while exports declined in November, with inventory pressure still existing, dragging down the international oil market [2].

菜籽系产业日报 2025-11-17 格形成支撑。不过，豆油供应充裕，且替代优势良好，使得菜油需求维持刚需为主。盘面来看，近来菜油期价低位反弹走强，短期 波动加大，短线参与为主。 重点关注 周一我的农产品网油菜籽开机率及各地区菜油粕库存量，中加贸易关系走向 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | -43 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 9880 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Supply - side pressure is small due to limited imports and widespread oil - mill shutdowns, but demand is weakening as aquaculture demand declines and soybean supply is relatively abundant. The price of rapeseed meal has slightly declined recently, and future attention should be paid to Sino - Canadian trade policies [2]. - The rapeseed oil market will continue the de - stocking mode, which supports its price. However, the demand for rapeseed oil remains mainly at the basic level due to the abundant supply and good substitution advantage of soybean oil. Recently, the futures price of rapeseed oil has strengthened significantly, and short - term trading is recommended [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 9975 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 2492 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; ICE rapeseed is 646.6 Canadian dollars/ton, up 4.1 Canadian dollars; and rapeseed is 5116 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: The 1 - 5 month - to - month spread of rapeseed oil is 491 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 63 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: The main contract position of rapeseed oil is 237907 lots, up 15923 lots; that of rapeseed meal is 479461 lots, up 10597 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: The net long position of rapeseed oil is 5630 lots, up 3174 lots; that of rapeseed meal is 33514 lots, down 2339 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: The warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed oil is 5323 sheets, down 50 sheets; that of rapeseed meal is 2745 sheets, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10260 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2500 yuan/ton, unchanged; that of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged; that of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8550 yuan/ton, unchanged; that of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8570 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; and that of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3050 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Average prices: The average price of rapeseed oil is 10353.75 yuan/ton, up 126.25 yuan; the import cost price of imported rapeseed is 7971.47 yuan/ton, up 15.44 yuan [2]. - Basis: The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract is 285 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; that of the main rapeseed meal contract is 8 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. - Price spreads: The spot price spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1710 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; that between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1690 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; and that between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 550 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast production of rapeseed is 13446 thousand tons, up 1068 thousand tons [2]. - Imports: The total rapeseed import volume for the month is 11.53 tons, down 13.13 tons; the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil for the month is 16 tons, up 2 tons; and the import volume of rapeseed meal for the month is 15.77 tons, down 5.57 tons [2]. - Inventory and开机 rate: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 0.5 tons, down 0.5 tons; the weekly开机 rate of imported rapeseed is 0%, down 1.6 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 2.6 tons, down 1.2 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0.5 tons, down 0.21 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 42.42 tons, down 5.38 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 25.45 tons, down 0.6 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 1.8 tons, down 0.6 tons; and the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 20.8 tons, up 0.1 tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil is 1.31 tons, down 0.53 tons; that of rapeseed meal is 0.2 tons, down 0.19 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed is 3128.7 tons, up 201.5 tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 495 tons, up 44.4 tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods for catering is 4508.6 billion yuan, up 12.9 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 20.6%, down 0.34 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 20.6%, down 0.34 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 12.47%, down 1.49 percentage points; and that of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 12.47%, down 1.5 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 24.18%, up 0.08 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 24.97%, down 1.51 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 14.38%, up 0.23 percentage points; and the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 15.25%, down 0.62 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On November 12, 2025, ICE rapeseed futures closed slightly higher, with the January contract up 1.90 Canadian dollars to 647.40 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - Analysts expect the USDA to lower the U.S. soybean yield forecast from 53.5 bushels per acre in September to 53.1 bushels per acre, which supports the U.S. soybean market and benefits the domestic meal market through cost transmission. However, the recent rise of U.S. soybeans has slowed down [2]. - Sino - Canadian trade negotiations have not made a breakthrough on rapeseed tariffs, restricting the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal in the near term [2]. 3.8 Rapeseed Meal Viewpoint Summary - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Supply is restricted by trade policies and oil - mill shutdowns, while demand is weakened by the decline of aquaculture demand and the substitution of soybean meal. The price of rapeseed meal has slightly declined recently, and future attention should be paid to Sino - Canadian trade policies [2]. 3.9 Rapeseed Oil Viewpoint Summary - The rapeseed oil market will continue the de - stocking mode, which supports its price. However, the demand for rapeseed oil remains mainly at the basic level due to the substitution of soybean oil. Recently, the futures price of rapeseed oil has strengthened significantly, and short - term trading is recommended [2].

Group 1 - The domestic oilseed and oil futures market showed mixed results on November 5, with rapeseed meal futures rising over 1% [1] - As of the latest data, rapeseed meal futures increased by 1.60% to 2537.00 CNY/ton, while rapeseed oil futures decreased by 0.52% to 9427.00 CNY/ton [1] - Soybean meal futures rose by 0.40% to 3040.00 CNY/ton, and soybean oil futures increased by 0.45% to 3759.00 CNY/ton [1] Group 2 - The opening prices for various oilseed futures on November 5 included soybean oil at 8094.00 CNY, palm oil at 8590.00 CNY, and rapeseed oil at 9434.00 CNY [2] - The closing prices for these contracts were soybean oil at 8142.00 CNY, palm oil at 8652.00 CNY, and rapeseed oil at 9476.00 CNY [2] - The trading volume for rapeseed meal futures was stable at 2497.00 CNY, while soybean meal futures opened at 3010.00 CNY and closed at 3028.00 CNY [2] Group 3 - As of November 4, the number of rapeseed oil futures warehouse receipts was 9440, a decrease of 300 from the previous trading day [3] - The warehouse receipts for peanut futures remained unchanged at 0, while rapeseed meal futures held steady at 2955 [3] - The data indicated a phenomenon of "backwardation" for several contracts, where spot prices exceeded futures prices for rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, palm oil, and soybean products [3] Group 4 - The spot price for rapeseed oil was 9773.33 CNY, with a basis of 297 CNY, resulting in a basis rate of 3.04% [4] - The spot price for rapeseed meal was 2551.67 CNY, with a basis of 54 CNY, leading to a basis rate of 2.12% [4] - Other commodities such as palm oil and soybean meal also showed positive basis values, indicating a favorable market condition for these products [4]

Core Insights - The domestic oilseed market is experiencing significant upward movement, particularly in canola futures, which have risen by 4.06% to 2487.00 CNY/ton [1] Market Information - According to the Canadian Grain Commission, canola exports for the week ending October 26 increased by 25.4% to 155,500 tons, up from 124,000 tons the previous week [1] - From August 1, 2025, to October 26, 2025, total canola exports from Canada reached 1,234,800 tons, a decrease of 57.4% compared to 2,895,600 tons during the same period last year [1] - As of October 26, Canadian canola commercial stocks stood at 1,348,300 tons [1] - On October 31, the C&F price for Canadian canola (November shipment) was $522/ton, an increase of $4/ton from the previous trading day; the price for January shipment was $532/ton, also up by $4/ton [1] - The Canadian Oilseed Crushing Statistics reported that canola crushing in September 2025 was 1,007,389 tons, reflecting a month-over-month increase of 16.07% and a year-over-year increase of 7.97% [1] - Pakistan has resumed imports of Canadian canola, although the removal of tariffs may limit the rebound in prices [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Domestically, the supply of Canadian rapeseed imports in the fourth quarter is restricted, but the demand for rapeseed meal decreases as the temperature drops and soybean supply is relatively abundant. The overall trend of rapeseed meal is weak, and attention should be paid to China - Canada and China - US trade policies [2]. - The rapeseed oil market is also affected by multiple factors. The initial ruling on anti - dumping policies for Canadian rapeseed is in place, and the supply of imported rapeseed is expected to tighten structurally in the fourth quarter, supporting rapeseed oil prices. However, the abundant supply of soybean oil weakens the demand for rapeseed oil, and it is necessary to continue to follow the trend of China - Canada trade policies [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 9748 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 2335 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of ICE rapeseed is 632.4 Canadian dollars/ton, down 1.1 Canadian dollars; and that of rapeseed is 5344 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan [2]. - Spreads and positions: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil is 383 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 12 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil are 7501 lots, down 415 lots; for rapeseed meal are - 108969 lots, down 334 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 7540 sheets, unchanged; that of rapeseed meal is 4050 sheets, down 210 sheets [2]. 3.2现货市场 - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10000 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; that of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2410 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 10117.5 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan, and the import cost of imported rapeseed is 7529.12 yuan/ton, down 10.16 yuan [2]. - Basis: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 239 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan; that of the rapeseed meal main contract is 75 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. - Substitute prices: The spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8470 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; that of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9030 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; that of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2960 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production and imports: The global rapeseed production forecast is 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast production of rapeseed is 13446 thousand tons, up 1068 thousand tons. The total rapeseed import volume is 11.53 million tons, down 13.13 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 16 million tons, up 2 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal is 15.77 million tons, down 5.57 million tons [2]. - Inventory and operating rates: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 3 million tons, down 2 million tons. The weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 2.93%, down 0.27 percentage points [2]. 3.4产业情况 - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 5.2 million tons, down 0.8 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0.78 million tons, down 0.37 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 49.9 million tons, down 1 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 27.2 million tons, down 0.7 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 2.9 million tons, up 0.1 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 22.1 million tons, down 0.4 million tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 1.63 million tons, up 1.41 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 0.97 million tons, down 0.12 million tons [2]. 3.5下游情况 - Production: The monthly production of feed is 3128.7 million tons, up 201.5 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 495 million tons, up 44.4 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly social retail sales of catering revenue is 4508.6 billion yuan, up 12.9 billion yuan [2]. 3.6期权市场 - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 19.43%, down 0.48 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 19.43%, down 0.49 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 13.12%, up 0.41 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 13.1%, up 0.42 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 23.23%, down 1.47 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 25.01%, up 0.02 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 15.58%, down 0.4 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 14.72%, down 0.03 percentage points [2]. 3.7行业消息 - ICE rapeseed futures closed lower on October 24 due to the decline in other vegetable oil prices but still recorded a weekly gain. The most actively traded January rapeseed futures contract fell 1.30 Canadian dollars to settle at 632.50 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - The harvest in the US Midwest is progressing actively due to favorable weather conditions, and the expected high yield of US soybeans restricts its market price. China has not ordered US soybeans for the current year, and the export pressure of US soybeans remains. However, the China - US economic and trade consultations in Malaysia from the 25th to the 26th supported the US soybean market price [2]. 3.8重点关注 - The rapeseed operating rate and the rapeseed oil and meal inventory in each region announced by myagricultural.com on Monday, as well as the trends of China - Canada and China - US trade relations [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the overall trend of rapeseed meal remains bearish. The rapeseed oil market will continue to maintain a de - stocking mode, and its price is supported, but the market is also intertwined with long and short factors. Attention should be paid to Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade policies [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 9834 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 2307 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; that of ICE rapeseed is 629.2 Canadian dollars/ton, down 0.8 Canadian dollars; and that of rapeseed is 5434 yuan/ton, up 103 yuan [2] - Spreads and positions: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil is 386 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 8 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil are 8702 lots, down 1206 lots; those of rapeseed meal are - 107102 lots, down 12852 lots [2] - Warehouse receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 7540, unchanged; that of rapeseed meal is 4702, down 3000 [2] Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10020 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2390 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 10113.75 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The import cost of rapeseed is 7495.07 yuan/ton, up 12.69 yuan [2] - Basis and price differences: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 186 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; that of the rapeseed meal main contract is 83 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1520 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; that between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 920 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; that between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 510 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 13446 thousand tons, up 1068 thousand tons [2] - Imports and profits: The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 11.53 tons, down 13.13 tons. The import rapeseed crushing profit is 766 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan [2] Industry Situation - Inventory and开机率: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 3 tons, down 2 tons. The weekly opening rate of imported rapeseed is 3.2%, down 0.53%. The inventory of rapeseed oil in coastal areas is 5.2 tons, down 0.8 tons; that of rapeseed meal is 0.78 tons, down 0.37 tons [2] - Import volume: The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 14 tons, up 1 ton; that of rapeseed meal is 18.31 tons, down 8.72 tons [2] Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2927.2 tons, up 99.9 tons; that of edible vegetable oil is 450.6 tons, up 30 tons [2] - Consumption: The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 4495.7 billion yuan, down 8.4 billion yuan [2] Industry News - ICE rapeseed futures slightly rose on October 21, with the most actively traded January contract up 0.10 Canadian dollars to 630.10 Canadian dollars per ton. The US Midwest soybean harvest is progressing actively, and the expected high - yield of US soybeans restricts its price. The US government shutdown leads to a lack of data and market caution [2] Rapeseed Meal View Summary - The Sino - Canadian trade negotiation has no substantial progress, and the import of Canadian rapeseed in the fourth quarter is restricted. However, the high - yield of Canadian rapeseed is basically realized, and the demand for rapeseed meal is weak due to the decline of aquaculture demand and the abundant supply of soybeans [2] Rapeseed Oil View Summary - The preliminary ruling on the anti - dumping policy for Canadian rapeseed is out, and the supply of imported rapeseed will be structurally tightened in the fourth quarter. Rapeseed oil will continue to be in a de - stocking mode, but the abundant supply of soybean oil restricts its demand [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report [1][2] 2) Core Views of the Report - **Overall View** - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with the overall trend remaining bearish. The rapeseed oil market will continue the de - stocking mode, but its demand is mainly for rigid needs, and it has recently adjusted at high levels, suggesting short - term observation [2] - **Rapeseed Meal View** - Internationally, the harvest of Canadian rapeseed is nearly complete, and the bumper harvest has put pressure on prices. The US soybean harvest is progressing actively, and the expected bumper harvest restricts prices. Although the US soybean crushing volume has increased significantly, the export pressure remains due to the lack of progress in Sino - US trade relations. - Domestically, the import of Canadian rapeseed in the fourth quarter is still restricted, resulting in less supply - side pressure. However, the demand for rapeseed meal is decreasing as the temperature drops and the aquaculture demand weakens. Additionally, the abundant supply of soybeans and the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weaken the demand for rapeseed meal [2] - **Rapeseed Oil View** - Internationally, the Indonesian government plans to increase biodiesel to B50 in the second half of next year, and the US biodiesel blending volume increased in September, which is beneficial to the international oil market. - Domestically, the preliminary ruling on the anti - dumping policy for Canadian rapeseed has been announced. The supply of imported rapeseed will be structurally tightened in the fourth quarter, and rapeseed oil will continue to be in the de - stocking mode. However, the abundant supply and good substitution advantage of soybean oil limit the demand for rapeseed oil [2] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Rapeseed Meal**: The futures closing price of the active contract decreased by 54 yuan/ton, the monthly spread (1 - 5) decreased by 12 yuan/ton, the main contract position decreased by 9161 hands, the net long position of the top 20 futures decreased by 3453 hands, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 50 sheets [2] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The futures closing price of the active contract decreased by 29 yuan/ton, the monthly spread (1 - 5) decreased by 27 yuan/ton, the main contract position increased by 13879 hands, the net long position of the top 20 futures decreased by 12187 hands, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 7540 sheets [2] - **Rapeseed**: The futures closing price of the active contract decreased by 1 yuan/ton, and the closing price of ICE rapeseed increased by 51 Canadian dollars/ton [2] Spot Market - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Nantong decreased by 30 yuan/ton, the basis of the main contract increased by 24 yuan/ton, and the spot price difference with soybean meal remained unchanged [2] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 20 yuan/ton, the average price decreased by 20.36 yuan/ton, the basis of the main contract increased by 9 yuan/ton, the spot price difference with soybean oil remained unchanged, and the spot price difference with palm oil decreased by 100 yuan/ton [2] - **Rapeseed**: The import cost price decreased by 30 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Yancheng, Jiangsu increased by 0.02 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The annual predicted output of rapeseed increased by 1.38 thousand tons, and the global predicted output of rapeseed increased by 1068 thousand tons. The import volume of rapeseed decreased by 26 thousand tons, the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil decreased by 8.72 thousand tons, and the import volume of rapeseed meal decreased by 0.8 thousand tons [2] Industry Situation - **Rapeseed Meal**: The import rapeseed crushing profit decreased by 13.13 yuan/ton, the weekly opening rate of imported rapeseed remained at 0%, the coastal inventory decreased by 0.8 thousand tons, the East China inventory decreased by 1 thousand tons, and the South China inventory increased by 0.1 thousand tons. The weekly delivery volume increased by 1.41 thousand tons [2] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills decreased by 0.53 thousand tons, the coastal inventory decreased by 0.37 thousand tons, the East China inventory decreased by 0.7 thousand tons, and the Guangxi inventory decreased by 0.4 thousand tons. The weekly delivery volume decreased by 0.12 thousand tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly value of catering revenue in social consumer goods retail reached 99.9 billion yuan. The monthly output of feed was 2927.2 thousand tons, and the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 450.6 thousand tons [2] Option Market - For rapeseed meal, the implied volatility of at - the - money put options increased by 0.13%, the implied volatility of at - the - money call options remained unchanged at 21.35%, the 20 - day historical volatility increased by 0.05%, and the 60 - day historical volatility increased by 0.15% [2] - For rapeseed oil, the implied volatility of at - the - money put options decreased by 0.08%, the implied volatility of at - the - money call options remained unchanged at 13.84%, the 20 - day historical volatility increased by 0.05%, and the 60 - day historical volatility increased by 0.05% [2] Industry News - The most actively traded January rapeseed futures contract on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) closed down 0.30 Canadian dollars, with a settlement price of 630 Canadian dollars/ton. The harvest in the US Midwest is progressing actively, and the expected bumper harvest of US soybeans restricts prices. The export pressure of US soybeans remains, but the large increase in the crushing volume supports prices [2] Key Points to Watch - Monitor the rapeseed opening rate, the inventory of rapeseed oil and meal in various regions, and the trends of Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade relations, especially the Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade policies [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Domestically, the import of Canadian rapeseed in the fourth quarter is still restricted, with less pressure on the supply side. However, the demand for rapeseed meal is decreasing due to the decline in aquaculture demand and the sufficient supply of soybeans and the good substitution advantage of soybean meal. The market is in a bearish trend overall, and attention should be paid to China - Canada and China - US trade policies [2]. - The rapeseed oil market will continue the de - stocking mode in the fourth quarter, which supports its price. But the sufficient supply of soybean oil and its good substitution advantage keep the demand for rapeseed oil mainly at a rigid level. The rapeseed oil price has adjusted at a high level recently, and short - term observation is recommended. Attention should also be paid to the China - Canada trade policy [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of rapeseed oil (active contract) is 9918 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan; the closing price of rapeseed meal (active contract) is 2350 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan; the closing price of ICE rapeseed (active) is 631 Canadian dollars/ton, down 0.5 Canadian dollars; the closing price of rapeseed (active contract) is 5280 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: The rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (1 - 5) is 370 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan; the rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (1 - 5) is 45 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: The main contract position of rapeseed oil is 278,716 lots, down 2,655 lots; the main contract position of rapeseed meal is 363,641 lots, down 4,227 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: The net long position of rapeseed oil is 13,361 lots, up 1,764 lots; the net long position of rapeseed meal is - 82,063 lots, up 11,892 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: The warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed oil is 7,590 pieces, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed meal is 7,702 pieces, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10,120 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2,430 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8,600 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot price of palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong is 9,300 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2,900 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. - Average prices: The average price of rapeseed oil is 10,213.75 yuan/ton, unchanged; the import cost price of imported rapeseed is 7,502.74 yuan/ton, up 4.63 yuan [2]. - Price differences: The oil - meal ratio is 4.06, down 0.03; the basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 202 yuan/ton, down 57 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is 80 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1,520 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 820 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 470 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Output forecast: The annual forecast output of rapeseed is 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged; the forecast annual output of global rapeseed is not provided with a specific change [2]. - Import volume: The total monthly import volume of rapeseed is 24.66 tons, up 7.06 tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 14 tons, up 1 ton; the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal is 18.31 tons, down 8.72 tons [2]. - Pressing profit: The imported rapeseed crushing profit is 749 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. - Inventory and operating rate: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 5 tons, unchanged; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 3.2%, down 0.53 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 6 tons, down 1.67 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0.78 tons, down 0.37 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 50.9 tons, unchanged; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 27.9 tons, down 0.69 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 2.8 tons, down 0.75 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 22.5 tons, up 1.4 tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil delivery volume is 0.22 tons, down 2.96 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal delivery volume is 1.09 tons, down 1.32 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Output: The monthly output of feed is 2,927.2 tons, up 99.9 tons; the monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 450.6 tons, up 30 tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 449.57 billion yuan, down 8.4 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 21.22%, up 1.16 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 21.2%, up 1.14 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 13.92%, down 0.22 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 13.92%, down 0.21 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 25.22%, up 1.23 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 24.94%, up 0.31 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 16.82%, up 0.07 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 14.72%, down 0.23 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On October 17 (Friday), ICE rapeseed futures closed lower, and the rapeseed harvest in the Canadian prairies was nearly completed. The November rapeseed futures contract fell 1.40 Canadian dollars, and the most actively traded January rapeseed futures contract fell 1.20 Canadian dollars [2]. - Due to favorable weather conditions, the harvest in the US Midwest is advancing actively. The expected high - yield of US soybeans restricts its market price. The China - US trade relationship has not improved significantly, and China has not ordered US soybeans for the current year, so the export pressure of US soybeans remains. However, the crushing volume of US soybeans has increased significantly, supporting the price of US soybeans. The US government is in a shutdown state, with a lack of data and a cautious market [2]. - The Indonesia government plans to increase biodiesel to B50 in the second half of next year, and the biodiesel blending volume in the US in September increased month - on - month, which is beneficial to the international oil market [2].