免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9486 | 22 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2303 | -7 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(5-9):(日,元/吨) | 85 | 31 菜粕月间价差(5-9)(日,元/吨) | -53 | 6 | | | 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 277988 | 5120 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 880720 | -7478 | | | 期货前2 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9464 | 105 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2310 | 15 | | | 菜油月间差(5-9):(日,元/吨) | 54 | 25 菜粕月间价差(5-9)(日,元/吨) | -59 | 6 | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 272868 | 4058 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 888198 | -21060 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | -9191 | 7327 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -213146 | 12462 | | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | 625 | 0 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) | 1000 | 0 | | | 期货收盘价(活跃):ICE油菜籽(日,加元/吨) | 697.2 | 9.1 期货收盘价(活跃合约):油菜籽(日,元/吨) | 5839 | -79 ...

研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 菜籽系产业日报 2026-03-02 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 最新 环比 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9359 | 174 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2295 | 8 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(5-9):(日,元/吨) 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 29 268810 | 23 菜粕月间价差(5-9)(日,元/吨) 1086 ...

2.2月26日，芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）大豆期价收盘下跌，其中基准期约收低0.20%，主要因为大豆 出口销售疲软以及多头获利平仓。截至收盘，大豆期价下跌0.25～2.00美分不等，其中3月期价下跌0.50 美分，报收1147.75美分/蒲；5月期价下跌1.50美分，报收1163.50美分/蒲。 （来源：国家粮食和物资储备数据中心） 3.美国农业部周度出口销售报告显示，截至2月19日，2025/26年度（9月/8月）美国大豆销售总量3565万 吨，比去年同期的4389万吨减少18.8%；其中对华销售1066.4万吨，比去年同期的2095.0万吨减少 49.1%，其中616.1万吨已经装运。 4．阿根廷农业部表示，2026年第七周阿根廷农户新季大豆销售步伐加快。截至2月18日，阿根廷农户预 售2025/26年度大豆535万吨，比一周前增加17万吨，去年同期524万吨；销售2024/25年度大豆4380万 吨，比一周前增加16万吨，去年同期3855万吨。 5.2月26日，芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）豆油期价收盘上涨，其中基准期约收高1.8%，因为美国环境保 护署（EPA）计划将此前小型炼油厂豁免的一半生物燃料义 ...

菜籽系产业日报 2026-02-26 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9185 | -59 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2296 | -16 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(5-9):(日,元/吨) | 21 | 2 菜粕月间价差(5-9)(日,元/吨) | -65 | -13 | | | 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 251806 | -6923 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 904520 | 36518 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | -20883 | -8971 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -223328 | -29725 | | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | 625 | 0 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) | 0 | 0 | | | 期货收盘价(活跃):ICE油菜籽(日,加元/吨) | 690.4 | -1.3 期货收盘价(活跃合约):油菜 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 | | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9215 | 79 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2249 | -27 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(5-9):(日,元/吨) | 80 | 8 菜粕月间价差(5-9)(日,元/吨) | -38 | -17 | | | 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 285363 | 1028 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 922401 | 9439 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | -14551 | -2962 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -229177 | -22631 | | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | 625 | 0 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) | 0 | 0 | | | 期货收盘价(活跃):ICE油菜籽(日,加元/吨) | 645.4 | -2 期货收盘价(活跃合约):油菜籽(日,元/吨) | 6007 | 32 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, and generally fluctuates with soybean meal. Affected by the improvement of China-Canada trade relations, rapeseed meal continued to decline and maintained a weak oscillation overall [2]. - The rapeseed oil market is in a destocking mode, which supports its price and keeps the basis at a high level. However, the improvement of China-Canada trade relations has increased the long - term supply pressure, causing rapeseed oil to decline in oscillation and increasing short - term volatility [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (active contract) was 8902 yuan/ton, down 161 yuan; the closing price of rapeseed meal futures (active contract) was 2221 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan [2]. - The rapeseed oil monthly spread (5 - 9) was -21 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan; the rapeseed meal monthly spread (5 - 9) was -66 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. - The open interest of the main rapeseed oil contract was 253,596 lots, down 16,032 lots; the open interest of the main rapeseed meal contract was 1,013,517 lots, up 95,878 lots [2]. - The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil were -20,757 lots, down 14,342 lots; for rapeseed meal were -272,749 lots, down 31,903 lots [2]. - The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 1,942 sheets, down 200 sheets; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts was 84 sheets, unchanged [2]. - The closing price of ICE rapeseed futures (active) was 637.1 Canadian dollars/ton, up 2.9 Canadian dollars; the closing price of rapeseed futures (active contract) was 5,549 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,850 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2,280 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan [2]. - The average price of rapeseed oil was 9,956.25 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the import cost of imported rapeseed was 7,636.99 yuan/ton, up 46.97 yuan [2]. - The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 6,300 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan; the oil - meal ratio was 4.04, up 0.09 [2]. - The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract was 787 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract was 59 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan [2]. - The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing was 8,540 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,310 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2]. Substitute Spot Prices - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 1,150 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2]. - The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 820 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The global rapeseed production forecast for the year was 95.27 million tons, up 3 million tons; the domestic rapeseed production forecast for the year was 13.446 million tons, unchanged [2]. - The total rapeseed import volume for the month was 0.2 million tons, up 0.2 million tons; the import rapeseed crushing profit on the disk was 299 yuan/ton, down 116 yuan [2]. - The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 0.1 million tons, unchanged; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 0%, unchanged [2]. - The total import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil for the month was 14 million tons, down 2 million tons; the total import volume of rapeseed meal for the month was 22.06 million tons, up 6.29 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas was 0.2 million tons, unchanged; the rapeseed meal inventory in coastal areas was 0 million tons, unchanged [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in East China was 27.4 million tons, up 2.25 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China was 15.7 million tons, down 1 million tons [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi was 0.1 million tons, unchanged; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China was 25.7 million tons, up 1.1 million tons [2]. - The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 was 0.18 million tons, down 0.22 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 was 0 million tons, unchanged [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed was 2,977.9 million tons, up 20.9 million tons; the monthly social consumer goods retail sales of catering revenue was 605.7 billion yuan, up 85.8 billion yuan [2]. - The monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 427.6 million tons, down 67.4 million tons [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 22.24% (17.23% previously), down 0.6%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal was 22.23% (17.21% previously), down 0.6% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility for rapeseed meal was 16.38%, up 0.03%; the 60 - day historical volatility for rapeseed meal was 13.06%, up 0.24% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility for rapeseed oil was 18.03%, up 2.19%; the 60 - day historical volatility for rapeseed oil was 14.77%, up 1.07% [2]. Industry News - On Friday, Canadian rapeseed futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) closed higher, with the benchmark contract up 0.8%, hitting a six - week high, due to a new trade agreement between Canada and China including a reduction in rapeseed tariffs [2]. - The USDA monthly supply - demand report showed that the U.S. soybean production forecast for the 2025/26 season was 4.262 billion bushels, higher than last month's forecast and market expectations. The USDA also raised Brazil's soybean production and export forecasts, which was bearish for the market [2]. - The NOPA monthly crushing report showed that the U.S. soybean crushing volume in December 2025 jumped to the second - highest on record, which was positive for U.S. soybeans [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - The rapeseed meal market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, generally fluctuating with soybean meal. Affected by the bearish USDA report and the rising expectation of eased China - Canada trade relations, rapeseed meal continued to decline and maintained a weak oscillation [2]. - The rapeseed oil market is also in a weak oscillation recently. Although the current de - stocking mode supports the price and the basis remains high, the increasing long - term supply pressure due to the arrival of Australian rapeseeds and the expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations needs attention [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil (active contract) was 8828 yuan/ton, down 121 yuan; rapeseed meal (active contract) was 2283 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; ICE rapeseed (active) was 629.4 Canadian dollars/ton, down 2.3 Canadian dollars; rapeseed (active contract) was 5550 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. - Spreads: Rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (5 - 9) was 14 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (5 - 9) was - 68 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2]. - Positions: Main contract positions of rapeseed oil were 258828 lots, up 12208 lots; main contract positions of rapeseed meal were 869905 lots, down 1046 lots. Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil were - 20583 lots, up 650 lots; for rapeseed meal were - 201431 lots, down 19790 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipts: Rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 2142 sheets, down 80 sheets; rapeseed meal warehouse receipts were 84 sheets, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9600 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2350 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 5900 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing was 8490 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong was 8650 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Averages and spreads: The average price of rapeseed oil was 9706.25 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan. The import cost of rapeseed was 7540.97 yuan/ton, down 45.57 yuan. The oil - meal ratio was 3.95, down 0.03. The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract was 772 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract was 67 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1110 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 770 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Production and imports: Global rapeseed production forecast for the year was 95.27 million tons, up 3 million tons; rapeseed production annual forecast was 13446 thousand tons, unchanged. Rapeseed import volume was 0.2 million tons, up 0.2 million tons; imports of rapeseed oil and mustard oil were 14 million tons, down 2 million tons; imports of rapeseed meal were 22.06 million tons, up 6.29 million tons [2]. - Inventory and开机 rate: Total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 0.1 million tons, unchanged; the weekly开机 rate of imported rapeseed was 0%, unchanged [2]. - Pressing profit: The imported rapeseed disk pressing profit was 365 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - Inventory: Coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 0.2 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 0 million tons, unchanged. East China rapeseed oil inventory was 25.15 million tons, down 1.55 million tons; East China rapeseed meal inventory was 15.7 million tons, down 1 million tons. Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory was 0.1 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; South China rapeseed meal inventory was 25.7 million tons, up 1.1 million tons [2]. -提货量: Rapeseed oil weekly提货量 was 0.18 million tons, down 0.22 million tons; rapeseed meal weekly提货量 was 0 million tons, unchanged [2]. Downstream Situation - Production: Feed production for the month was 2977.9 million tons, up 20.9 million tons; edible vegetable oil production for the month was 427.6 million tons, down 67.4 million tons [2]. - Consumption: Social consumer goods retail sales of catering revenue for the month were 6057 billion yuan, up 858 billion yuan [2]. Option Market - Implied volatility: The at - the - money call option implied volatility of rapeseed meal was 22.73%, down 0.45%; the at - the - money put option implied volatility of rapeseed meal was 22.73%, down 0.45%. The at - the - money call option implied volatility of rapeseed oil decreased by 0.15% [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 16.67%, down 0.39%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 12.82%, down 0.06%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 17.08%, down 0.73%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 17.1%, down 0.05% [2]. Industry News - On January 14th, ICE rapeseed futures declined, in line with the trend of Chicago soybean oil. The ICE March rapeseed futures contract fell 4.50 Canadian dollars, settling at 628.30 Canadian dollars per ton. The rapeseed trade is closely watching the news related to Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China [2]. Rapeseed Meal View Summary - The USDA monthly supply - demand report was bearish for soybeans, dragging down rapeseed meal. Domestically, the supply of near - month Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal is restricted, and oil mills are shut down, but the arrival of Australian rapeseed increases marginal supply. The market expects an improvement in China - Canada trade relations, increasing long - term supply pressure. The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand and fluctuates with soybean meal, maintaining a weak oscillation [2]. Rapeseed Oil View Summary - The USDA supply - demand report shows a relatively loose supply - demand pattern for global and Canadian rapeseed, which restricts the market price. The visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China raises the expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations, which may support the Canadian rapeseed market. Domestically, oil mills are shut down, and rapeseed oil is in a de - stocking mode, supporting the price, but the long - term supply pressure increases [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - **Overall**: The rapeseed - related market shows a complex situation with both supply - and demand - side factors influencing prices. The market is affected by international factors such as the performance of US soybeans, Canadian rapeseed policies, and the situation of palm oil, as well as domestic factors like Sino - Canadian trade negotiations and domestic demand [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Internationally, US soybeans are in the export season with sufficient supply and face competition from Brazil, but domestic consumption in the US is good and Chinese purchases support prices. Domestically, Sino - Canadian trade restricts imports, supply is tight, but demand is weak due to the decline in aquaculture demand and the substitution of soybean meal. The price is under pressure and shows a volatile trend [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed oil market has a tightening supply due to the failure of Sino - Canadian trade negotiations on tariffs and the shutdown of oil mills. It is in a de - stocking mode, which supports prices. However, the abundant supply of soybean oil and its substitution advantage limit the demand for rapeseed oil. The price is affected by the decline of palm oil but may be stronger than palm oil in the short - term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The futures closing price of rapeseed oil (active contract) is 9818 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the futures closing price of rapeseed meal (active contract) is 2431 yuan/ton; the futures closing price of ICE rapeseed (active) is 642.2 Canadian dollars/ton, down 12 Canadian dollars; the futures closing price of rapeseed (active contract) is 5442 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spreads**: The rapeseed oil monthly spread (1 - 5) is - 26 yuan/ton; the rapeseed meal monthly spread (1 - 5) is 330 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil is 7808 lots, and that of rapeseed meal is 9220 lots, down 13046 lots and 5347 lots respectively; the main contract positions of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal are - 21536 lots and 355847 lots respectively, with the latter down 4625 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is - 8, and that of rapeseed meal is 3968, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10190 yuan/ton; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2460 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the average price of rapeseed oil is 10283.75 yuan/ton; the import cost of rapeseed is 7878.8 yuan/ton, up 33.1% [2]. - **Ratios and Spreads**: The oil - meal ratio is 4.02, down 0.03; the basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is - 40 yuan/ton; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is 372 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1690 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1820 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 540 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Production**: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 90.96 million tons, unchanged [2]. - **Imports**: The total rapeseed import volume for the month is - 11.53 tons; the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil for the month is - 2 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal for the month is 22.06 tons, up 6.29 tons [2]. - **Inventory and Operation**: The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills is - 0.25 tons; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 0%, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is - 0.83 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0.01 tons, down 0.19 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region is - 3.6 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the East China region is 22.66 tons, down 0.3 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region is - 0.33 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region is 23 tons, up 0.7 tons [2]. - **Delivery Volume**: The weekly delivery volume of rapeseed oil is - 0.15 tons; the weekly delivery volume of rapeseed meal is 0.2 tons, down 0.1 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Consumption**: The total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry for the month is - 171.7 billion yuan; the monthly output of feed is 5199 tons, up 690.4 tons; the monthly output of edible vegetable oil is - 67.4 tons [2]. 3.6 Option Market - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 21.08%, up 1.02%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 21.08%, up 1.02%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 15.14%, up 0.21%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 15.14%, up 0.21% [2]. - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 0.03%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 20.82%, up 0.01%; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 0.06%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 13.62%, down 0.14% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On November 24th, ICE rapeseed futures rose slightly supported by the strengthening of crude oil. The January rapeseed futures contract rose 3.10 Canadian dollars to 644.20 Canadian dollars per ton, and the March contract rose 3.50 Canadian dollars to 657.20 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - US soybeans are in the export season with sufficient supply and face competition from Brazil, but domestic consumption in the US is good and Chinese purchases support prices. Sino - Canadian trade negotiations on rapeseed tariffs have not made a breakthrough, limiting imports [2]. - The Canadian government's bio - fuel production incentive plan uses rapeseed oil as the core raw material, and Canada and Pakistan have reached an agreement to promote rapeseed exports to Pakistan [2]. - The US government is considering delaying the plan to cut bio - fuel import incentives by 1 - 2 years, and the production of Malaysian palm oil increased while exports declined in November, increasing inventory pressure on the international oil market [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - **Rapeseed Meal**: The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The supply - side pressure is small due to the limited import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal and the shutdown of coastal oil mills. However, the demand for rapeseed meal is weakening as aquaculture demand decreases with the drop in temperature, and soybean supply is relatively abundant with good substitution advantages. The market has large fluctuations recently, and short - term observation is recommended. Later, attention should be paid to whether there are breakthroughs in China - Canada trade policies [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The international oil market is weak, but the domestic rapeseed oil will continue to be in a destocking mode, which supports its price. However, the demand for rapeseed oil is mainly for rigid needs because of the abundant supply and good substitution advantage of soybean oil. After a continuous rise, the rapeseed oil futures price has slightly declined recently, with large short - term fluctuations, and short - term participation is recommended [2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Futures Market** - **Prices**: The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (active contract) is 9779 yuan/ton, down 34; the closing price of rapeseed meal futures (active contract) is 2412 yuan/ton, down 7; the closing price of ICE rapeseed futures (active) is 650.2 Canadian dollars/ton, down 5.7; the closing price of rapeseed futures (active contract) is 5551 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Spreads**: The rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (1 - 5) is 380 yuan/ton, up 17; the rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (1 - 5) is 35 yuan/ton, up 3 [2]. - **Positions**: The position of the main rapeseed oil contract is 233465 lots, down 9832; the position of the main rapeseed meal contract is 377665 lots, down 9671. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil are - 3446 lots, down 2701; for rapeseed meal are - 22471 lots, down 5559 [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 4131, down 30; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts is 2000, unchanged [2]. **Spot Market** - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10070 yuan/ton, down 100; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of rapeseed oil is 10163.75 yuan/ton, down 100; the import cost of rapeseed is 7986.7 yuan/ton, down 89.01 [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract is 291 yuan/ton, down 66; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract is - 12 yuan/ton, up 7 [2]. **Substitute Spot Prices** - The spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Nanjing is 8560 yuan/ton, down 100; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8670 yuan/ton, down 70; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3000 yuan/ton, down 50 [2]. - The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1510 yuan/ton, unchanged; between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1400 yuan/ton, down 30; between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 600 yuan/ton, down 50 [2]. **Upstream Situation** - **Production**: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast production of rapeseed is 13446 thousand tons, up 1068 thousand tons [2]. - **Imports and Profits**: The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 11.53 tons, down 13.13 tons; the import rapeseed crushing profit is 659 yuan/ton, up 29 [2]. - **Inventory and开机率**: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 0.25 tons, down 0.25 tons; the weekly开机率 of imported rapeseed is 0%, unchanged [2]. **Industry Situation** - **Imports**: The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 16 tons, up 2 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal in the current month is 15.77 tons, down 5.57 tons [2]. - **Inventory**: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 2.08 tons, down 0.52 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0.2 tons, down 0.3 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 40.05 tons, down 2.37 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 22.96 tons, down 2.49 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 1.48 tons, down 0.32 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 22.3 tons, up 1.5 tons [2]. - **Pick - up Volume**: The weekly pick - up volume of rapeseed oil is 1.01 tons, down 0.3 tons; the weekly pick - up volume of rapeseed meal is 0.3 tons, up 0.1 tons [2]. **Downstream Situation** - The monthly output of feed is 3128.7 tons, up 201.5 tons; the monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 495 tons, up 44.4 tons; the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 5199 billion yuan, up 690.4 billion yuan [2]. **Options Market** - **Rapeseed Meal Options**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 20.4%, down 0.33; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 21.96%, down 0.05; the 20 - day historical volatility is 21.43%, down 0.03; the 60 - day historical volatility is 20.4%, down 0.32 [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil Options**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 13.7%, up 0.24; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 13.69%, up 0.23; the 20 - day historical volatility is 15.04%, up 0.13; the 60 - day historical volatility is 13.75%, up 0.05 [2]. **Industry News** - ICE rapeseed futures closed lower on Wednesday, dragged down by the decline of other vegetable oil and crude oil futures. The January rapeseed futures contract fell 6 Canadian dollars and settled at 650.40 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - USDA unexpectedly lowered the US soybean export forecast for 2025/26. Although the domestic soybean crushing consumption in the US is good and Chinese buyers started to purchase US soybeans this week, the soybean market was sold off after the report was released [2]. - The China - Canada trade negotiation has not made a breakthrough on the rapeseed tariff issue. The export of Canadian rapeseed has declined significantly this year, but the Canadian biofuel production incentive plan takes rapeseed oil as the core raw material, and Canada and Pakistan have reached an agreement to promote the export of Canadian rapeseed to Pakistan [2]. - The US government is considering postponing the plan to cut biofuel import incentives by 1 - 2 years, and the palm oil production in Malaysia increased while exports declined in November, with inventory pressure still existing, dragging down the international oil market [2].