研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 10 | 9510 | -88 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2586 | | | 菜油月间差(9-1):(日,元/吨) | 7 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) -712 期货市场 | 60 281867 | 6 菜粕月间价差(9-1)(日,元/吨) -12874 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 273 567429 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | | 15732 | -2370 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -11828 | 2352 | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | | 3021 | 301 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) | 15663 | -136 | | 期货收盘价(活跃):ICE油菜籽(日,加元/吨) | | 704.6 | ...

研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9548 | -59 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2579 | -18 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(9-1):(日,元/吨) 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 56 307251 | -15 菜粕月间价差(9-1)(日,元/吨) -16717 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日, ...

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/07/04 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: US Government lifts export restrictions on EDA to China. Futures Prices: O ...

菜籽系产业日报 2025-07-03 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 最新 环比 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9619 | 0 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2601 | 23 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(9-1):(日,元/吨) 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 69 329243 | ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9477 | 62 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2586 | 14 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(9-1):(日,元/吨) 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 49 309340 | -7 菜粕月间价差(9-1)(日,元/吨) 10063 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 280 576397 | 9 -631 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | 25491 | -1736 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -16349 | 7198 | | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | 100 | 0 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) | 20529 | -331 | | | 期货收盘价(活跃):ICE油菜籽(日,加元/吨) | 709.8 | 11.1 期货收盘价(活跃合约):油菜籽(日,元/吨) | 4950 | 1 | | 现货市场 | 现货价 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - **For Rapeseed Meal**: The short - term market focuses on the tight old - crop inventory of Canadian rapeseed, and its growth is in the "weather - dominated" stage. The domestic rapeseed meal market is affected by multiple factors. The arrival of the aquaculture peak season increases the demand, but the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation, and the expectation of eased China - Canada trade relations adds to the supply increment. The market price is under pressure, and the futures price shows a weak performance [2]. - **For Rapeseed Oil**: The cost of Canadian rapeseed provides support for the domestic rapeseed oil market, but the high inventory pressure of domestic oil mills and the expectation of eased China - Canada trade relations add supply pressure. The price is affected by factors such as international oil prices, and short - term fluctuations may intensify [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 9482 yuan/ton (up 6 yuan), and that of rapeseed meal is 2550 yuan/ton (down 38 yuan). The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed futures is 711.6 Canadian dollars/ton (up 5.5 Canadian dollars), and that of the active contract of rapeseed is 4947 yuan/ton (down 53 yuan) [2]. - **Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil is 78 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan), and that of rapeseed meal is 245 yuan/ton (down 16 yuan) [2]. - **Positions**: The position of the main contract of rapeseed oil is 328,197 lots (down 17,063 lots), and that of rapeseed meal is 600,032 lots (up 49,071 lots). The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil is 23,914 lots (down 1,157 lots), and that of rapeseed meal is - 19,928 lots (down 6,809 lots) [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts for rapeseed oil is 100 (unchanged), and that for rapeseed meal is 22,685 (down 1,329) [2]. 现货市场 - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9680 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan), and that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2430 yuan/ton (down 70 yuan). The average price of rapeseed oil is 9700 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan), and the import cost of imported rapeseed is 5133.35 yuan/ton (up 31.96 yuan) [2]. - **Spreads**: The basis of the main contract of rapeseed oil is 204 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan), and that of rapeseed meal is - 120 yuan/ton (down 32 yuan). The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1470 yuan/ton (down 80 yuan), and that between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1190 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan). The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 430 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan) [2]. Upstream Situation - **Production**: The global rapeseed production forecast is 89.56 million tons (up 4.32 million tons), and the annual forecast production of rapeseed is 12,378 thousand tons (unchanged) [2]. - **Imports**: The total monthly import volume of rapeseed is 33.55 million tons (down 15.37 million tons), the monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 34 million tons (up 10 million tons), and the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal is 28.79 million tons (up 4.13 million tons) [2]. - **Inventory and Operation Rate**: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 15 million tons (down 5 million tons), and the weekly operation rate of imported rapeseed is 14.26% (down 4.83 percentage points) [2]. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 12.2 million tons (down 0.73 million tons), and the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 1.01 million tons (down 0.54 million tons). The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region is 63.05 million tons (up 2.05 million tons), and the rapeseed meal inventory is 36.83 million tons (down 0.41 million tons). The rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region is 7.2 million tons (down 0.1 million tons), and the rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region is 30.8 million tons (down 0.7 million tons) [2]. - **提货量**: The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil is 2.81 million tons (down 0.73 million tons), and that of rapeseed meal is 2.87 million tons (down 0.56 million tons) [2]. Downstream Situation - **Production**: The monthly production of feed is 26.64 million tons (down 1.132 million tons), and the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 4.404 million tons (down 0.87 million tons) [2]. - **Consumption**: The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 416.7 billion yuan (down 6.8 billion yuan) [2]. Option Market - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 20.78% (down 0.15 percentage points), and that of at - the - money put options is 20.77% (down 0.16 percentage points). The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 15.11% (down 0.23 percentage points), and that of at - the - money put options is 15.1% (down 0.24 percentage points) [2]. - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 19.12% (up 0.69 percentage points), and the 60 - day historical volatility is 21.61% (up 0.04 percentage points). The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 15.37% (down 0.09 percentage points), and the 60 - day historical volatility is 15.1% (down 0.01 percentage points) [2]. Industry News - On June 25, ICE rapeseed futures closed higher due to tight old - crop supply and bullish technical signals. The July contract rose 4.40 Canadian dollars to 697.80 Canadian dollars/ton, and the November contract rose 8.40 Canadian dollars to 714.60 Canadian dollars/ton [2]. - As of the week ending June 22, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 66%, lower than the market expectation of 67% [2].

相关链接 期货热点追踪 ICE油菜籽期货逼近720加元，中国买家重返市场，时隔一月加拿大油菜籽突现对华出口，需求拐点已 至？ ...

菜籽系产业日报 2025-06-11 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) 菜油月间差(9-1):(日,元/吨) | 9149 141 | -39 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) -1 菜粕月间价差(9-1)(日,元/吨) | 2638 289 | 9 | | 期货市场 | | | | | 16 | | | 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 287128 | -1958 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 547917 | -4152 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | 30959 | -12008 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | 3306 | 15019 | | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) 期货收盘价(活跃):ICE油菜籽(日,加元/吨) | 0 692.8 | 0 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) ...

周度展望：ICE油菜籽期货市场预期转变，供应紧张缓解，天气因素能否推动价格上涨？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

| | 项目类别 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9272 | -76 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2557 | -80 | | | 菜油月间差(9-1):(日,元/吨) 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) 期货市场 | 162 295183 | -17 菜粕月间价差(9-1)(日,元/吨) 2199 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 244 552037 | -31 -18839 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | 26574 | -3638 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -27832 | -25527 | | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | 0 | 0 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) | 27429 | -162 | | | 期货收盘价(活跃):ICE油菜籽(日,加元/吨) | 686.1 | -24.9 期货收盘价(活跃合约):油菜籽(日,元/吨) | 5266 | 19 | | | ...