Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rapeseed meal, the domestic market is mainly trading the issue of long - term supply, with the overall performance showing a strong and volatile trend. It is recommended to maintain a bullish mindset. Although there are some suppressing factors such as high oil - mill operation rates and soybean meal inventory accumulation, factors like low near - month rapeseed arrivals, increased seasonal demand in aquaculture, and anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed support the market [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the market also maintains a bullish mindset. Despite the short - term constraints of the off - season of oil consumption and sufficient supply, factors such as low oil - mill operation rates, fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter, and anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed reduce supply pressure. The market has experienced a slight decline from its high and filled the gap, but remains volatile [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil futures closing price (active contract) was 9828 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan; rapeseed meal was 2627 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan. ICE rapeseed futures closing price (active) was 645.8 Canadian dollars/ton, down 6.9 Canadian dollars; rapeseed futures closing price (active contract) was 4874 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan [2]. - Spreads: Rapeseed oil monthly spread (1 - 5) was 145 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; rapeseed meal monthly spread (1 - 5) was 110 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan [2]. - Positions: Rapeseed oil main - contract positions were 279,566 lots, down 9038 lots; rapeseed meal main - contract positions were 436,474 lots, down 1510 lots. Rapeseed oil's top 20 futures net long positions were 7628 lots, up 4995 lots; rapeseed meal's were 5009 lots, up 2985 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipts: Rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 3487 sheets, unchanged; rapeseed meal warehouse receipts were 8633 sheets, down 88 sheets [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil spot price in Jiangsu was 10,030 yuan/ton, unchanged; rapeseed meal spot price in Nantong was 2610 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The average rapeseed oil price was 10,095 yuan/ton, unchanged; rapeseed spot price in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Basis: Rapeseed oil main - contract basis was 180 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan; rapeseed meal main - contract basis was - 17 yuan/ton, down 63 yuan [2]. - Substitute prices: Spot price of grade - 4 soybean oil in Nanjing was 8620 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; spot price of palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong was 9510 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3070 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Price differences: Rapeseed - soybean oil spot price difference was 1210 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; rapeseed - palm oil spot price difference was 320 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan; soybean - rapeseed meal spot price difference was 460 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Production: Global rapeseed production forecast for the year was 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; annual rapeseed production forecast was 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Imports: Total rapeseed import volume for the month was 18.45 million tons, down 15.1 million tons; import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil for the month was 15 million tons, up 4 million tons; import volume of rapeseed meal for the month was 27.03 million tons, up 7.56 million tons [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: Total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 15 million tons, unchanged; weekly import rapeseed operation rate was 11.94%, down 4.9% [2]. - Pressing profit: Imported rapeseed crushing profit was 596 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - Inventory: Coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 10.45 million tons, down 0.55 million tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 2.55 million tons, down 0.65 million tons. East China rapeseed oil inventory was 54.2 million tons, down 0.72 million tons; East China rapeseed meal inventory was 33.59 million tons, up 0.34 million tons. Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory was 5 million tons, down 0.5 million tons; South China rapeseed meal inventory was 21.8 million tons, up 0.8 million tons [2]. -提货量: Rapeseed oil weekly提货量 was 3.76 million tons, up 0.29 million tons; rapeseed meal weekly提货量 was 3.24 million tons, up 0.52 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Production: Feed production for the month was 2937.7 million tons, up 175.6 million tons; edible vegetable oil production for the month was 476.9 million tons, up 41.8 million tons [2]. - Consumption: Total retail sales of consumer goods in the catering industry for the month was 4707.6 billion yuan, up 129.4 billion yuan [2]. Option Market - Implied volatility: Rapeseed meal at - the - money call option implied volatility was 20.98%, down 1.43%; at - the - money put option implied volatility was 20.97%, down 1.45%. Rapeseed oil at - the - money call option implied volatility was up 0.26% [2]. - Historical volatility: Rapeseed meal 20 - day historical volatility was 31.15%, up 0.06%; 60 - day historical volatility was 21.32%, up 0.03%. Rapeseed oil 20 - day historical volatility was 13.44%, up 0.54%; 60 - day historical volatility was 13.47%, up 0.28% [2]. Industry News - ICE rapeseed futures declined on August 19. The most actively traded November rapeseed futures contract fell 5.70 Canadian dollars to settle at 646 Canadian dollars per ton, and the January contract fell 5.80 Canadian dollars to settle at 657.50 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - The US Department of Agriculture unexpectedly lowered the US soybean harvest area, reducing production and ending stocks, which was overall bullish for the market. However, the good US soybean good - quality rate still constrained prices, and the market awaited the results of ProFarmer's inspection of US Midwest crops [2]. Key Points to Watch - Monday's rapeseed operation rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventory data from My Agricultural Network, as well as the development of China - Canada and Canada - US trade disputes [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rapeseed meal, the overall view is to maintain a bullish stance. Although the domestic oil mill operation rate is relatively high and soybean meal is in a state of inventory accumulation, which suppresses the price of the meal market, the uncertainty of fourth - quarter purchases supports the forward market. Near - month rapeseed arrivals are low, reducing supply pressure, and the peak season of aquaculture boosts seasonal demand. However, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal [2]. - For rapeseed oil, it is also recommended to participate from a bullish perspective. In the short term, the off - season of oil consumption and sufficient domestic vegetable oil supply restrain the market price. But the low oil mill operation rate reduces the output pressure, fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter ease supply - side pressure, and the temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed weaken long - term supply [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil's active - contract closing price is 9850 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan; rapeseed meal's is 2604 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; ICE rapeseed's is 652.7 Canadian dollars/ton, down 7.8 Canadian dollars; and domestic rapeseed's is 4919 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil's 1 - 5 spread is 151 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; rapeseed meal's 1 - 5 spread is 99 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan [2]. - Main - contract positions: Rapeseed oil's main - contract position is 288,604 lots, down 2034 lots; rapeseed meal's is 437,984 lots, up 3654 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil's is 2633 lots, down 175 lots; rapeseed meal's is 2024 lots, up 7061 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil's is 3487 sheets, unchanged; rapeseed meal's is 8721 sheets, down 1100 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10,030 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan; rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged; rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged; fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8820 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9710 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan; and soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3070 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Average price: Rapeseed oil's average price is 10,095 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan [2]. - Import cost: The import cost of rapeseed is 8220.57 yuan/ton, down 86.21 yuan [2]. - Basis: Rapeseed oil's main - contract basis is 204 yuan/ton, up 61 yuan; rapeseed meal's is 46 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [2]. - Price spreads: The rapeseed oil - soybean oil spot price spread is 1200 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the rapeseed oil - palm oil spot price spread is 460 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan; the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spot price spread is 420 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production forecasts: Global rapeseed production forecast is 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; domestic rapeseed annual production forecast is 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Import quantities: Rapeseed import quantity is 18.45 tons, down 15.1 tons; rapeseed oil and mustard oil import quantity is 15 tons, up 4 tons; rapeseed meal import quantity is 27.03 tons, up 7.56 tons [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: Rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 15 tons, up 5 tons; the weekly operation rate of imported rapeseed is 11.94%, down 4.9 percentage points; the imported rapeseed crushing profit is 596 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: Coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 10.45 tons, down 0.55 tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 2.55 tons, down 0.65 tons; East China rapeseed oil inventory is 54.2 tons, down 0.72 tons; East China rapeseed meal inventory is 33.25 tons, up 0.68 tons; Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory is 5 tons, down 0.5 tons; South China rapeseed meal inventory is 21.8 tons, up 0.8 tons [2]. -提货量: Rapeseed oil's weekly提货量 is 3.76 tons, up 0.29 tons; rapeseed meal's is 3.24 tons, up 0.52 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: Feed production is 2937.7 tons, up 175.6 tons; edible vegetable oil production is 476.9 tons, up 41.8 tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly value of catering revenue in social consumer goods retail is 4707.6 billion yuan, up 129.4 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Industry News - ICE rapeseed futures closed lower on August 18, trading within the previous week's range. Tight supply limited the decline. The most actively traded November contract closed down 9.20 Canadian dollars at 651.70 Canadian dollars/ton, and the January contract closed down 9.40 Canadian dollars at 663.30 Canadian dollars/ton [2]. - The US Department of Agriculture unexpectedly lowered the US soybean harvest area, reducing production and ending stocks, which is overall bullish. However, the good condition of US soybeans restrains the market price, and the market is waiting for the results of ProFarmer's inspection of Midwest crops [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 13, both equity indices and CGB futures rose; oils and oilseeds led the gains, while energy and chemicals performed weakly [10][12]. - China implements the fiscal interest subsidy policy for personal consumer loans and operating loans in the service industry [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 期货异动 3.1.1 Overview 行情概述 - On August 13, equity indices and CGB futures rose, oils and oilseeds led gains, energy and chemicals were weak. Top gainers were rapeseed oil (3.6% rise, 23.1% open interest increase m - o - m), soybean meal (2.9% rise, 10.2% open interest increase m - o - m), and No.2 soybean (2.7% rise, 0.2% open interest decrease m - o - m). Top decliners were SCFIS(Europe) (5.6% fall, 8.6% open interest increase m - o - m), silicon metal (3.4% fall, 2.0% open interest increase m - o - m), and coking coal (3.0% fall, 4.6% open interest decrease m - o - m) [10][11][12]. 3.1.2 Daily Raise 上涨品种 3.1.2.1 Rapeseed Oil 菜籽油 & Rapeseed Meal 菜籽粕 & Rapeseed 油菜籽 - On August 13, rapeseed oil rose 3.6% to 10064 yuan/ton, rapeseed meal rose 2.3% to 2723 yuan/ton, and rapeseed rose 2.2% to 5136 yuan/ton. On August 12, China announced a preliminary ruling on anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed, imposing a 75.8% deposit. China's high dependence on Canadian rapeseed imports led to market concerns about supply of rapeseed meal and oil, causing price increases. Short - term market sentiment for rapeseed meal may remain strong, but mid - term substitutes may cause negative feedback, and after October it enters the off - season. Anti - dumping ruling is beneficial to domestic rapeseed oil prices, and factors like expected increase in overseas biodiesel demand for palm and soybean oil, palm oil entering production reduction season after September, and high market expectation of Fed rate cut in September may drive oils to operate strongly later [15][16][19]. 3.1.2.2 Copper 铜 - On August 13, copper rose 0.6% to 79380 yuan/ton. Supply constraints remain and inventory is low, but demand is weakening marginally and U.S. tariffs on copper are unfavorable. Copper may show a fluctuating trend. Copper ore and blister copper processing fees are low, raw material supply is tight, and new low long - term processing fees increase smelter production cut risks. Downstream replenishment willingness is weakening, copper inventory is rising, and price upward momentum is weakening [26][27][29]. 3.1.3 Daily Drop 下跌品种 3.1.3.1 SCFIS(Europe) - On August 13, SCFIS(Europe) fell 5.6% to 1333.1 points. Prices fluctuate, and attention should be paid to shorting the October and December contracts on rallies. The China - U.S. economic and trade talks in Stockholm suspended the 24% tariff for 90 days starting from August 12, 2025, retaining 10%. In weeks 34 - 35, shipping companies face increasing cargo solicitation pressure, and ship transfer to the Europe route in October may exacerbate pessimistic expectations. MSK freight rate fell sharply this week, and the SCFIS index at the end of August will narrow the disk discount. August - September is the traditional price decline cycle, and full shipping schedules may bring downward pressure to break below $2000/FEU. Attention should be paid to HPL's additional ships and shipping companies' suspension plans around the National Day [31][33][34]. 3.2 China News 中国要闻 3.2.1 Macro News 宏观新闻 - On August 12, the Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, and the National Financial Regulatory Administration issued the "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy on Personal Consumer Loans". The scope includes single - transaction consumption under 50,000 yuan and key - area consumption over 50,000 yuan. For consumption over 50,000 yuan, the subsidy is capped at 50,000 yuan. After the policy expires, extending the period and expanding the scope may be studied based on implementation effects [38][39]. 3.2.2 Industry News 行业新闻 - On August 13, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.48% to a nearly 4 - year high, and the two - market turnover exceeded 2.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 269.4 billion yuan from the previous trading day, returning to above 2 trillion yuan after 114 trading days [39]. - The Korea Exchange will launch semiconductor index futures and other derivatives [39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rapeseed meal, the overall USDA August supply - demand report is bullish, but domestic soybean meal inventory accumulation suppresses the rapeseed meal market. However, factors such as low near - month rapeseed arrivals, peak aquaculture season, and anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed support the market. Despite the good substitution advantage of soybean meal, the market should be treated with a bullish mindset due to increased volatility [2]. - For rapeseed oil, international factors like rainfall in Canada and anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed put pressure on prices, while domestic factors such as low oil mill operating rates, fewer third - quarter rapeseed purchases, and anti - dumping measures reduce supply pressure. The market should be mainly participated in with a bullish approach [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil (active contract) is 10,064 yuan/ton, up 262 yuan; rapeseed meal (active contract) is 2,723 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; ICE rapeseed (active) is 650.7 Canadian dollars/ton, down 31.1 Canadian dollars; rapeseed (active contract) is 5,136 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (1 - 5) is 228 yuan/ton, up 61 yuan; rapeseed meal (1 - 5) is 112 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil is 282,665 lots, up 165,186 lots; rapeseed meal is 178,669 lots, down 27,971 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil is 14,214 lots, down 2,606 lots; rapeseed meal is 17,393 lots, up 15,262 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil is 0, down 3,487; rapeseed meal is 0, down 9,821 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9,760 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2,660 yuan/ton; rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6,000 yuan/ton; fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8,840 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan; palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong is 9,380 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,090 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan [2]. - Average prices: Rapeseed oil is 9,825 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan [2]. - Import cost price of rapeseed: 4,656.83 yuan/ton, down 194.33 yuan [2]. - Oil - meal ratio: 3.73, up 0.15 [2]. - Basis of main contracts: Rapeseed oil is - 42 yuan/ton, down 94 yuan; rapeseed meal is - 63 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan [2]. - Spot price differences: Rapeseed - soybean oil is 1,090 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; rapeseed - palm oil is 500 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan; soybean - rapeseed meal is 430 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast: 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; annual rapeseed production forecast is 12,378 thousand tons [2]. - Rapeseed import volume: 18.45 million tons, down 15.1 million tons [2]. - Rapeseed inventory in oil mills: 15 million tons, up 5 million tons [2]. - Weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed: 16.84%, up 0.32 percentage points [2]. - Imported rapeseed crushing profit: 455 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil: 15 million tons, up 4 million tons; rapeseed meal import volume is 27.03 million tons, up 7.56 million tons [2]. - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory: 11 million tons, up 0.35 million tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 3.2 million tons, up 0.5 million tons [2]. - Rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi: 54.92 million tons, down 0.2 million tons; rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 32.57 million tons, down 0.84 million tons [2]. - Weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil: 3.47 million tons, up 1.77 million tons; rapeseed meal is 2.72 million tons, down 0.15 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Feed production: 2,937.7 million tons, up 175.6 million tons; edible vegetable oil production is 476.9 million tons, up 41.8 million tons [2]. - Social consumer goods retail sales of catering: 4,707.6 billion yuan, up 129.4 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options: Rapeseed meal is 27.39%, down 1.72 percentage points; rapeseed oil is 19.15%, up 2.5 percentage points [2]. - Implied volatility of at - the - money put options: Rapeseed meal is 27.39%, down 1.71 percentage points; rapeseed oil is 19.15%, up 2.5 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility (20 - day): Rapeseed meal is 23.19%, up 2.17 percentage points; rapeseed oil is 13.9%, up 2.13 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility (60 - day): Rapeseed meal is 18.19%, up 0.9 percentage points; rapeseed oil is 12.89%, up 0.66 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On August 12, ICE rapeseed futures tumbled 4.5% after China's anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed, but prices rebounded from the intraday low [2]. - The USDA's August supply - demand report showed changes in US soybean forecasts for the 2025/26 season, with lower harvest area and slightly higher yield, and lower production and ending stocks [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Overall**: The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the rapeseed - related industries, including futures, spot, upstream, industry, and downstream situations. It offers short - term trading suggestions for both rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil based on various factors such as supply, demand, and market trends [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Although near - month rapeseed arrivals are low, reducing supply pressure, and there is a seasonal increase in aquaculture demand, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. The market is volatile, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: In the domestic market, the off - season of oil consumption, high inventory pressure of rapeseed oil mills, and abundant vegetable oil supply restrain prices. However, the decrease in the oil mill operating rate and less rapeseed purchase in the third quarter reduce supply pressure. The short - term trend is range - bound, and short - term participation is advised [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - **Prices**: The futures closing prices of rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, ICE rapeseed, and domestic rapeseed all decreased. For example, the futures closing price of rapeseed oil (active contract) was 9496 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan; the futures closing price of ICE rapeseed (active) was 669.8 Canadian dollars/ton, down 2.3 Canadian dollars [2]. - **Spreads and Positions**: The month - to - month spreads of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal decreased, and the net long positions of the top 20 futures holders also decreased. The main contract positions of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal decreased. The rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal warehouse receipts changed differently, with rapeseed oil unchanged and rapeseed meal increasing by 2753 [2]. Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot prices of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu increased by 20 yuan/ton, the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu remained unchanged at 6000 yuan/ton, and the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong decreased by 60 yuan/ton. The oil - meal ratio decreased by 0.05 to 3.55 [2]. - **Substitute Prices**: The spot prices of palm oil and soybean oil increased, and the spot price of soybean meal remained unchanged. The price differences between rapeseed oil and soybean oil, and rapeseed oil and palm oil decreased, while the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal increased [2]. Upstream Situation - **Production and Imports**: The global rapeseed production prediction increased slightly, while the domestic rapeseed import quantity decreased by 15.1 tons to 18.45 tons. The import quantity of rapeseed oil and mustard oil increased by 4 tons to 15 tons, and the import quantity of rapeseed meal increased by 7.56 tons to 27.03 tons [2]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills decreased by 5 tons to 10 tons, and the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed increased by 1.59 percentage points to 16.52% [2]. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The coastal and regional inventories of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal changed. Coastal rapeseed oil inventory increased by 1.1 tons to 10.65 tons, and coastal rapeseed meal inventory increased by 0.8 tons to 2.7 tons. The inventories in different regions such as East China and Guangxi also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Production and Consumption**: The monthly production of feed and edible vegetable oil increased, and the monthly social retail sales of catering also increased [2]. Key Points - **Market Trends**: The rapeseed futures in ICE closed slightly lower due to the lukewarm vegetable oil market and Canadian rainfall. The good condition of US soybeans and the high inventory of domestic soybean meal suppressed the price of rapeseed meal. The change in the weather in Canada and the possible resumption of rapeseed trade between China and Australia affected the supply of rapeseed [2]. - **Suggestions**: For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, short - term participation is recommended due to the complex market situation and large price fluctuations [2]. - **Focus**: It is necessary to focus on the rapeseed operating rate and the inventories of rapeseed oil and meal in various regions released by Myagric on Monday, as well as the trends of China - Canada and Canada - US trade disputes [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Overall Market Situation**: The overall situation of the rapeseed - related market is complex, with various factors influencing the prices of rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal. The market is affected by international trade, weather conditions, supply - demand relationships, and related policies [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic rapeseed meal market is under pressure due to high oil - mill operating rates, soybean meal inventory accumulation, expected decline in pig存栏, and policies for reducing soybean meal substitution. However, the uncertainty of fourth - quarter ship purchases and the seasonal increase in aquaculture demand provide some support. The market is volatile and short - term trading is recommended [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed oil market is constrained by the off - season of consumption, high inventory in oil mills, and sufficient domestic vegetable oil supply. But the reduction in oil - mill operating rates and fewer third - quarter rapeseed purchases ease the supply pressure. The market is in an overall volatile state with increased short - term fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: The futures closing prices of rapeseed oil (active contract) were 9542 yuan/ton (up 18 yuan), rapeseed meal (active contract) were 2678 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan), ICE rapeseed (active) were 682.9 Canadian dollars/ton (down 12.1 Canadian dollars), and rapeseed (active contract) were 5122 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan) [2]. - **Spreads and Positions**: The 9 - 1 month spread of rapeseed oil was 70 yuan/ton (up 12 yuan), and that of rapeseed meal was 246 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan). The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil were 24449 lots (up 6537 lots) and for rapeseed meal were 20192 lots (up 3504 lots) [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 3487 (unchanged), and that of rapeseed meal was 1200 (unchanged) [2]. Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9600 yuan/ton (unchanged), rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2600 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan), and the import cost of rapeseed was 4855.38 yuan/ton (down 69.12 yuan). The oil - meal ratio was 3.64 (up 0.05) [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract was 76 yuan/ton (down 14 yuan), and that of the rapeseed meal main contract was - 78 yuan/ton (up 7 yuan) [2]. - **Substitute Prices**: The spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing was 8420 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan), palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong was 8820 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan), and soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2920 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan) [2]. Upstream Situation - **Production and Imports**: The global rapeseed production forecast was 89.77 million tons (up 0.21 million tons), and the annual forecast production of rapeseed was 12378 thousand tons (unchanged). The total rapeseed import volume was 18.45 tons (down 15.1 tons), and the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 15 tons (up 4 tons) [2]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 15 tons (down 5 tons), and the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 16.52% (up 1.59%) [2]. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 10.65 tons (up 1.1 tons), rapeseed meal inventory was 2.7 tons (up 0.8 tons); the East China rapeseed oil inventory was 55.5 tons (down 0.77 tons), rapeseed meal inventory was 33.41 tons (down 1.72 tons); the Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory was 5.7 tons (up 0.15 tons), and the South China rapeseed meal inventory was 26.1 tons (down 0.9 tons) [2]. - **提货量**: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 was 3.27 tons (up 0.36 tons), and the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 was 3.43 tons (up 1.11 tons) [2]. Downstream Situation - **Production**: The monthly production of feed was 2762.1 tons (up 98.1 tons), and the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 476.9 tons (up 41.8 tons) [2]. - **Consumption**: The monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 4707.6 billion yuan (up 129.4 billion yuan) [2]. Option Market - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 22.58% (down 2.02%), and that of put options was 22.57% (down 2.04%); for rapeseed oil, the implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options was 13.16% (down 2.15%) [2]. - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 19.06% (up 0.1%), and the 60 - day historical volatility was 17.35% (up 0.08%); for rapeseed oil, the 20 - day historical volatility was 11.5% (down 0.16%), and the 60 - day historical volatility was 12.39% (down 0.02%) [2]. Industry News - **Rapeseed Futures**: On Friday, ICE Canadian rapeseed futures closed lower, with the benchmark contract down 1.9% to a two - week low due to heavy selling by speculative funds [2]. - **Soybean Conditions**: As of the week ending July 27, 2025, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%, higher than the market expectation of 67%, and the previous week was 68%, and the same period last year was 67% [2]. Key Points to Watch - **Data**: The rapeseed oil - mill operating rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventories in each region reported by Myagric on Monday [2]. - **Trade Disputes**: The development of trade disputes between China and Canada, and between Canada and the United States [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - For rapeseed meal, the high-quality rate of US soybeans is at a high level in the same period, with strong expectations of a bumper harvest. Domestically, the high oil - mill operating rate and the accumulation of soybean meal inventory suppress the price of the rapeseed meal market. The future decline in pig inventory and the promotion of soybean meal reduction substitution also reduce demand expectations. However, the uncertainty of fourth - quarter purchases supports the forward market. Near - month rapeseed arrivals are low, reducing supply pressure, and the seasonal increase in aquaculture demand is offset by the good substitution advantage of soybean meal. The market fluctuates greatly, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. - For rapeseed oil, high - frequency data shows that palm oil production increases while exports decline, which restricts palm oil prices. However, increased exports from Indonesia, low inventory, and positive news in the US and Indonesian biodiesel sectors boost the oil market. Domestically, it is the off - season for oil consumption, with ample supply and high inventory pressure in rapeseed oil mills, which restricts prices. But the reduction in the oil - mill operating rate and fewer third - quarter rapeseed purchases ease supply - side pressure. The short - term volatility of rapeseed oil has increased [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of the active rapeseed oil contract is 9510 yuan/ton, down 111 yuan; the closing price of the active rapeseed meal contract is 2699 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan. The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed contract is 696.2 Canadian dollars/ton, down 4.9 Canadian dollars [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: The rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread is 61 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the rapeseed meal 9 - 1 spread is 288 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: The main contract position of rapeseed oil is 194,637 lots, down 20,837 lots; the main contract position of rapeseed meal is 442,990 lots, down 3,790 lots [2]. - Top 20 net long positions: The top 20 net long positions of rapeseed oil are 16,891 lots, down 7,830 lots; the top 20 net long positions of rapeseed meal are 29,067 lots, down 6,136 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: The warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed oil is 3,487 sheets, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed meal is 1,200 sheets, an increase of 1,200 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9,680 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the average spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,745 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2,610 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Import costs: The import cost of rapeseed is 4,942.03 yuan/ton, down 33.88 yuan [2]. - Oil - meal ratio: The oil - meal ratio is 3.61, down 0.08 [2]. - Basis: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 59 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is - 89 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan [2]. - Substitute prices: The spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8,350 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8,920 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2,890 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Price spreads: The spot price spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1,290 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spot price spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 690 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot price spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 280 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Global production: The predicted annual global rapeseed production is 89.77 million tons, an increase of 0.21 million tons; the annual predicted rapeseed production is 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Import quantities: The total monthly rapeseed import quantity is 18.45 tons, down 15.1 tons; the monthly import quantity of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 34 tons, an increase of 10 tons; the monthly import quantity of rapeseed meal is 28.79 tons, an increase of 4.13 tons [2]. - Mill inventories: The total weekly rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 15 tons, down 5 tons [2]. - Operating rates: The weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 14.93%, down 0.79 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Regional inventories: The weekly rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas is 9.55 tons, an increase of 0.3 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal inventory in coastal areas is 1.9 tons, an increase of 0.7 tons. The weekly rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region is 56.27 tons, down 2.18 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal inventory in the East China region is 33.41 tons, down 1.72 tons. The weekly rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region is 5.55 tons, down 0.05 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region is 26.1 tons, down 0.9 tons [2]. - Weekly提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 3.27 tons, an increase of 0.36 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 3.43 tons, an increase of 1.11 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly feed production is 2,762.1 tons, an increase of 98.1 tons; the monthly edible vegetable oil production is 440.4 tons, down 87 tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 4,707.6 billion yuan, an increase of 129.4 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 24.6%, up 0.49 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 24.61%, up 0.5 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 15.31%, down 1.48 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 15.31%, down 1.48 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 18.97%, up 0.72 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 17.27%, up 0.21 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 11.66%, up 0.75 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 12.41%, down 0.01 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On July 30, ICE rapeseed futures fell due to the weakening of CBOT soybean oil futures and good weather in western Canada. The most actively traded November rapeseed futures closed down 5.70 Canadian dollars at 696.60 Canadian dollars per ton, and the January rapeseed futures closed down 5.00 Canadian dollars at 707.50 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - As of the week ending July 27, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%, higher than the market expectation of 67%, 68% in the previous week, and 67% in the same period last year [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Overall Market Situation**: On July 28, ICE rapeseed futures weakened due to the decline of some competitive vegetable oil prices and the good weather in Canada boosting the yield expectation of current field crops. The U.S. soybean good rate is at a high level in the same period, with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. The Sino - U.S. economic and trade talks are ongoing, and the market is closely watching whether a trade agreement can be reached [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: In the domestic market, the high probability of oil mills operating and the continuous inventory accumulation of soybean meal suppress the price of the rapeseed meal market. There is an expectation of a decline in pig inventory and the government's emphasis on reducing the use of soybean meal, which reduces the demand expectation. However, the uncertainty of fourth - quarter ship purchases brings support to the forward market. Near - month rapeseed arrivals are scarce, and the seasonal increase in aquaculture demand for rapeseed meal provides some support. But the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The rapeseed meal market continues to fluctuate weakly [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: High - frequency data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil increased while exports declined in July 1 - 25, which restricts palm oil prices. However, the significant increase in Indonesian exports, low inventory levels, and positive news in the U.S. and Indonesian biodiesel sectors boost the oil market. In the domestic market, it is the off - season for oil consumption, and the supply of vegetable oil is relatively loose. The high inventory pressure of rapeseed oil mills restricts market prices. But the decrease in the oil mill operation rate and fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter reduce supply - side pressure. Supported by the strengthening of soybean oil, rapeseed oil prices rose synchronously, with increased short - term fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil futures is 9492 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 2660 yuan/ton, unchanged; the active contract of ICE rapeseed is 696.5 Canadian dollars/ton, down 3.4 Canadian dollars; and the active contract of rapeseed is 5140 yuan/ton, down 57 yuan [2]. - **Spreads**: The rapeseed oil monthly spread (9 - 1) is 50 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the rapeseed meal monthly spread (9 - 1) is 281 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan. The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 134 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan; that of the rapeseed meal main contract is - 130 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The main - contract positions of rapeseed oil are 196655 lots, down 4683 lots; those of rapeseed meal are 453220 lots, down 15106 lots. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil are 19614 lots, up 3865 lots; for rapeseed meal are 19712 lots, down 5128 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 3487, unchanged; that of rapeseed meal is 0, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9540 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the average price is 9580 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2530 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import cost of imported rapeseed is 4948.52 yuan/ton, down 32.85 yuan [2]. - **Substitute Prices**: The spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8340 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8920 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2850 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Price Differences**: The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1220 yuan/ton, unchanged; between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 570 yuan/ton, unchanged; between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 320 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The oil - meal ratio is 3.63, up 0.02 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Production and Imports**: The global predicted annual production of rapeseed is 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the annual predicted production of rapeseed in some regions is 12378 thousand tons, unchanged. The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 18.45 million tons, down 15.1 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal in the current month is 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons [2]. - **Inventory and Operation Rate**: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 20 million tons, up 5 million tons; the weekly operation rate of imported rapeseed is 14.93%, down 0.79%. The import rapeseed crushing profit is 185 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: Coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 9.55 million tons, up 0.3 million tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 1.9 million tons, up 0.7 million tons. In the East China region, rapeseed oil inventory is 56.27 million tons, down 2.18 million tons; rapeseed meal inventory is 33.41 million tons, down 1.72 million tons. In the Guangxi region, rapeseed oil inventory is 5.55 million tons, down 0.05 million tons; in the South China region, rapeseed meal inventory is 26.1 million tons, down 0.9 million tons [2]. - **提货量**: The weekly rapeseed oil delivery volume is 3.27 million tons, up 0.36 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal delivery volume is 3.43 million tons, up 1.11 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Production**: The current - month production of feed is 2762.1 million tons, up 98.1 million tons; the current - month production of edible vegetable oil is 440.4 million tons, down 87 million tons [2]. - **Consumption**: The current - month total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 4707.6 billion yuan, up 129.4 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 24.53%, up 0.66%; that of at - the - money put options is 24.53%, up 0.66%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 16.48%, down 0.04%; that of at - the - money put options is 16.48%, down 0.04% [2]. - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 15.79%, down 0.05%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 16.15%, down 0.57%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 11.14%, up 0.24%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 12.28%, up 0.14% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On July 28, ICE rapeseed futures weakened due to the decline of some competitive vegetable oil prices and the good weather in Canada boosting the yield expectation of current field crops. The most actively traded November rapeseed futures closed down 4.90 Canadian dollars, with a settlement price of 695.90 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - As of the week ending July 27, 2025, the good rate of U.S. soybeans was 70%, higher than the market expectation of 67%, 68% in the previous week, and 67% in the same period last year. The good rate of U.S. soybeans is still at a high level in the same period, and the weather in the U.S. soybean - producing areas is good, with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest [2].

1. Core Views - For rapeseed meal, the current stage of Canadian rapeseed growth is "weather - dominated". The reduction of hot weather and beneficial rainfall in the Canadian plains this week bring pressure. Domestically, with the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans, the oil - mill operating rate is at a high level, and the short - term supply is loose, suppressing the price of the rapeseed meal market. However, the uncertainty of fourth - quarter ship purchases supports the forward market. The peak season of aquaculture boosts the feed demand for rapeseed meal, but the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. The market is waiting for news on Sino - US trade negotiations. Recently, rapeseed meal has risen and may remain volatile in the short term [2]. - For rapeseed oil, although the production of Malaysian palm oil declines against the seasonal pattern, the unexpected drop in export data makes the MPOB report bearish. High - frequency data shows that the export improvement from July 1 - 10 provides some support, and the rebound of international oil prices also supports the oil market. Domestically, it is the off - season for oil consumption, the supply of vegetable oil is relatively loose, and the inventory pressure of rapeseed oil mills is high, which restricts the market price. However, the decline in the oil - mill operating rate reduces the output pressure. The uncertainty of third - quarter rapeseed purchases and the potential tightening of Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations may affect future rapeseed exports to China. Affected by the weakening of Canadian rapeseed, rapeseed oil has declined in a volatile manner and may continue to fluctuate in the short term [2]. 2. Summary by Directory 2.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The futures closing price of rapeseed oil (active contract) is 9424 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the futures closing price of rapeseed meal (active contract) is 2659 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan; the futures closing price of ICE rapeseed (active) is 683 Canadian dollars/ton, down 0.9 Canadian dollars; the futures closing price of rapeseed (active contract) is 5099 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan [2]. - **Spreads and Positions**: The rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (9 - 1) is 81 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (9 - 1) is 355 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil are 16649 lots, up 1298 lots; for rapeseed meal, they are 4915 lots, up 6885 lots. The main - contract positions of rapeseed oil are 256301 lots, and for rapeseed meal are 560897 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 3510 sheets, and for rapeseed meal is 12466 sheets [2]. 2.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9610 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2550 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the average price of rapeseed oil is 9650 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the import cost of imported rapeseed is 4893.66 yuan/ton, down 30.48 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The oil - meal ratio is 3.69, down 0.02; the basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 171 yuan/ton, up 59 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is - 109 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1400 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 810 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 280 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. 2.3 Upstream Situation - **Production and Imports**: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 12378 thousand tons, unchanged. The total monthly import volume of rapeseed is 33.55 million tons, down 15.37 million tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal is 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons [2]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 200 thousand tons, up 50 thousand tons; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 9.86%, down 2.67 percentage points. The imported rapeseed crushing profit is 304 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan [2]. 2.4 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 92.9 thousand tons, down 7.2 thousand tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 15.1 thousand tons, up 10.5 thousand tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 592.7 thousand tons, down 6.8 thousand tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 355.8 thousand tons, down 13.2 thousand tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 69 thousand tons, down 3 thousand tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 293 thousand tons, down 8 thousand tons [2]. - **Delivery Volume**: The weekly delivery volume of rapeseed oil is 21.1 thousand tons, down 8.9 thousand tons; the weekly delivery volume of rapeseed meal is 23.2 thousand tons, down 11.6 thousand tons [2]. 2.5 Downstream Situation - **Production**: The monthly output of feed is 27.621 million tons, up 981 thousand tons; the monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 4.404 million tons [2]. - **Consumption**: The monthly social retail sales of catering revenue is 457.82 billion yuan, up 41.12 billion yuan [2]. 2.6 Option Market - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 18.17%, up 0.72 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 18.02%, up 0.56 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 12.45%, down 0.13 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 12.48%, down 0.1 percentage points [2]. - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 0.49%; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 11.82%, down 2.17 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 13.19%, down 0.3 percentage points [2]. 2.7 Industry News - On July 11th, ICE rapeseed futures closed lower due to the improved weather conditions in the Canadian plains. The most actively traded November rapeseed contract closed down 2.40 Canadian dollars at 682.70 Canadian dollars per ton, and the January contract fell 2.50 Canadian dollars to 691.10 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - As of the week ending July 6, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 66%, in line with market expectations, the same as the previous week and lower than 68% in the same period last year. The current weather in US soybean - producing areas is good, and the good - to - excellent rate is relatively high. The US tariff issue may damage the downstream demand for US soybeans and restrict the market price [2]. 2.8 Key Points of Concern - Monitor the rapeseed operating rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventory in various regions released by myagric on Monday, as well as the development of Sino - Canadian and Canada - US trade disputes [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **菜粕**: The current stage of Canadian rapeseed growth has entered the "weather - dominated" stage. Weekend rainfall in western Canada and expected heavy rainfall this week have alleviated the previous drought. In the US, the soybean good - rate is relatively high and the domestic soybean supply is increasing, which suppresses the meal market. Domestically, the demand for rapeseed meal in aquaculture is rising, but the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. The market is waiting for Sino - US trade negotiation news. The rapeseed meal closed up in a volatile manner today and may maintain volatility in the short term [2] - **菜油**: Internationally, the palm oil inventory in Malaysia is expected to decrease, and international biodiesel policies support the palm oil market. Domestically, it is the off - season for oil consumption, the supply of vegetable oil is loose, and the inventory pressure of rapeseed oil mills is high, which restricts the market price. However, the decline in the mill's operating rate reduces the output pressure, and fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter and potential tensions in Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations may affect future rapeseed exports to China. The rapeseed oil closed down with reduced positions, and short - term fluctuations may intensify [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil was 9510 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed meal was 2586 yuan/ton, up 88 yuan; the closing price of the active ICE rapeseed contract was 704.6 Canadian dollars/ton, up 9.6 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed was 5079 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2] - **Spreads and Positions**: The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil was 60 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed meal was 273 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil were 15732 lots, down 2370 lots; the net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed meal were - 11828 lots, up 2352 lots. The positions of the main contracts of rapeseed oil were 281867 lots, down 712 lots; the positions of the main contracts of rapeseed meal were 567429 lots, down 12874 lots [2] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 3021, up 301; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts was 15663, down 136 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9630 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2480 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of rapeseed oil was 9670 yuan/ton, down 62.5 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed was 5041.46 yuan/ton, up 52.97 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The oil - meal ratio was 3.77, unchanged [2] - **Substitute Prices**: The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing was 8140 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8700 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2800 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1530 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 1080 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 320 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Production**: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year was 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the annual forecast production of rapeseed was 12378 thousand tons, unchanged [2] - **Imports and Processing**: The total rapeseed import volume in the current month was 33.55 million tons, down 15.37 million tons; the import rapeseed crushing profit was 155 yuan/ton, down 81 yuan. The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 20 million tons, up 5 million tons; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 12.53%, up 1.07 percentage points [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - **Imports**: The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month was 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal in the current month was 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons [2] - **Inventory**: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 10.01 million tons, down 1.14 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 0.46 million tons, down 0.64 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China was 59.95 million tons, down 1.64 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China was 35.58 million tons, down 1.32 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi was 6.9 million tons, down 0.3 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China was 29.3 million tons, down 0.8 million tons [2] - **Delivery Volume**: The weekly delivery volume of rapeseed oil was 2.11 million tons, down 0.89 million tons; the weekly delivery volume of rapeseed meal was 2.32 million tons, down 1.16 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Production**: The monthly production of feed was 2762.1 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 440.4 million tons, down 87 million tons [2] - **Consumption**: The monthly catering revenue in social consumer goods retail was 4578.2 billion yuan, up 411.2 billion yuan [2] 3.6 Option Market - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 14.25%, down 0.1 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil was 13.34%, down 0.09 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 17%, up 0.02 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal was 17.01%, up 0.3 percentage points [2] - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 14.54%, up 0.4 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 13.52%, up 0.07 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal and other related data were not fully provided [2] 3.7 Industry News - On July 8, ICE rapeseed futures rebounded, with the most active November contract up 7.30 Canadian dollars to 704.10 Canadian dollars/ton [2] - As of July 6, 2025, the good - rate of US soybeans was 66%, unchanged from the previous week and lower than the same period last year [2] - The average forecast of analysts before the MPOB report was that the palm oil inventory in Malaysia in June would drop to 1.99 million tons, a decrease of 0.24% from May [2]