你对2025年助贷行业发展印象最深的一件事是什么？一众受访行业人士默契地给出了同样的答案：监管 新规。 即将过去的2025年里，金融助贷行业在监管风暴中完成了一轮深刻的"刮骨疗毒"。4月《关于加强商业 银行互联网助贷业务管理 提升金融服务质效的通知》（以下简称"助贷新规"）出炉，在半年的过渡期 中逐渐扭转了行业此前的规模扩张惯性。从头部平台的撮合量收缩与轻重资本模式切换，到中小银行密 集缩减合作机构，再到海外业务成为头部机构的增长新引擎，全行业在合规压力下上演了一场"淘汰 赛"与"转型战"。 站在年终节点回望，助贷新规带来的强制要求，在洗牌中筑牢了助贷合规底色，又在变革中重塑了行业 格局。有行业从业人士向北京商报记者指出，助贷行业的转型与分化的本质是企业在合规、风险、成本 三重压力下的生存策略选择，核心源于经营环境的根本性变化。进入2026年后，助贷又该如何突围？ 从规模竞速转向质量博弈 "2025年助贷行业可谓是迎来巨变，一系列行业相关新规的出台，对业务的整体影响很大。"12月29日， 华东地区某助贷平台从业人员李新（化名）告诉北京商报记者。这样的感触，在其他受访从业者的回复 中也有所体现，助贷新规毫无疑问 ...

Core Insights - The performance of leading internet financial technology companies in Q3 2025 shows a trend of slowing net profit growth, with some companies experiencing revenue growth without profit increase, indicating an industry adjustment during the transitional period before the new lending regulations take effect [1][2] Group 1: Company Performance - Xinyi Technology reported revenue of 3.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.43%, and a net profit of 640 million yuan, up 2.66% year-on-year [1] - Qifu Technology achieved revenue of 5.206 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, but its net profit decreased by 20.3% [1] - Lexin's revenue was 3.417 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.64%, while its net profit increased by 68.06% [1] Group 2: Strategic Adjustments - Companies are exploring new growth points during the transitional period of the new lending regulations, which is becoming a core variable in performance differentiation [2] - Qifu Technology has established a multi-channel customer acquisition system, reducing the average customer acquisition cost from 370 yuan to 340 yuan in Q3 2025 [3] Group 3: Market Trends - The trend of lowering internet loan interest rates and expanding customer demographics is becoming inevitable [3] - The issuance of asset-backed securities (ABS) by Qifu Technology reached nearly 18.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 40%, driven by policy support and improved asset quality [6] Group 4: Business Models - The light capital model, which involves providing services without assuming credit risk, is facing challenges, leading companies to prefer a heavier capital model that involves direct lending [7][8] - In Q3 2025, Qifu Technology's revenue from heavy capital model services was 3.869 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33%, while revenue from light capital model services decreased by 54% [8]

证券研究报告|港股公司深度研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 07 日 [Table_Title] 强稀缺属性，受益于流动性改善与 IPO 加速 [Table_Title2] 香港交易所（0388.HK） [Table_Summary] 事件概述: 2025 年前三季度，公司实现收入及其他收益 218.51 亿港 元，同比+36.63%，其中 Q3 单季同比+44.73%至 77.75 亿港元； 实现归母净利润 134.19 亿港元，同比+44.8%，其中 Q3 单季利润 创历史新高，同比+55.80%至 49 亿港元。 ► 南向交易占比持续提升，成为港股市场活跃度核心驱 动力。 南向交易日均成交额占中国香港现货市场整体成交额的比重 呈现持续上升趋势，从 2019 年的 12%显著提升至 2025 年第三季 度的 53%，成为推动港股交投活跃的重要力量。2025 年前三季 度，港股通 ADT 同比大幅增长 229%至 1,259 亿港元，贡献了现货 市场 ADT 近半份额。这一结构性变化主要源于两方面因素：一方 面，港股市场中低估值、高分红资产对中国内地险资、公募等追 求绝对收益的资金 ...

Core Viewpoint - The traditional success model of large tech companies is being challenged by the increasing capital intensity required for AI development, which could fundamentally change their business dynamics [1][4]. Group 1: Capital Expenditure Trends - Major tech companies like Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft are projected to spend over $380 billion on capital expenditures this fiscal year, a significant increase of over 1300% compared to a decade ago [1]. - Microsoft's capital expenditure now accounts for 25% of its revenue, more than triple the level from ten years ago, indicating a shift towards a more capital-intensive business model [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Stock Performance - Despite uncertainties regarding future returns, investor confidence in the AI initiatives of these tech giants remains high, with stock prices generally rising; for instance, Microsoft's stock increased by 15% in 2025 [2]. - Meta's stock faced a significant drop of 11% following its third-quarter earnings report, reflecting market concerns over the lack of a clear path to profitability from increased AI spending [2]. Group 3: Financial Implications and Risks - The rising depreciation costs associated with AI chips and servers could severely impact profit growth, as suggested by hedge fund manager Michael Burry [3]. - Companies are increasingly turning to debt and off-balance-sheet financing to fund their expenditures, which introduces additional risks; for example, Meta issued $30 billion in bonds, marking the largest public offering of high-rated corporate bonds this year [3]. - The shift from a low-capital to a capital-intensive business model may lead to lower valuations, as investors typically pay less for companies with higher capital intensity [3][4].

Core Insights - The valuation increase of overseas financial institutions is driven by both regulatory easing and business model innovation, providing a reference for Chinese financial institutions [1] Group 1: Valuation Evolution - The evolution of overseas financial institutions' valuations can be traced through three distinct transformation phases over the past 20 years: 2000-2008 was characterized by scale-driven growth, 2009-2019 saw a shift towards structural optimization due to regulatory pressures, and from 2020 onwards, technology and ESG factors have become key drivers [1] - The subprime mortgage crisis marked a pivotal point in the valuation logic, leading to a focus on wealth and asset management as core engines for valuation enhancement [1] Group 2: Regulatory Environment - A relatively loose regulatory environment has been a crucial foundation for valuation increases, exemplified by the U.S. investment banking sector during the Trump administration (2016-2018), where regulatory relaxation coincided with significant valuation gains [2] Group 3: Business Model Innovation - Overseas financial institutions have achieved sustained profitability through business model innovation and capital management, focusing on optimizing capital structure, enhancing capital efficiency, and transitioning to light capital models [3] - High-valuation banks, such as JPMorgan, have successfully developed high-return, low-risk businesses like wealth management, with non-interest income accounting for over 50% of their revenue [3] Group 4: Implications for Chinese Financial Institutions - The valuation transformation of overseas financial institutions offers valuable lessons for domestic institutions facing long-term "broken net" pressures, emphasizing the need for a balance between international alignment and local adaptation in building a Chinese valuation system [4] - The current reliance on indirect financing in China, with a high proportion of interest income, suggests that not all banks are suited for a transition towards retail banking and wealth management [4]

Core Viewpoint - The appointment of Huang Liming as the new president of WeBank marks a significant leadership transition as the bank faces challenges in performance, asset quality, and structural transformation amid a tightening regulatory environment and shrinking consumer loans [1][2]. Leadership Transition - Huang Liming will be the third president of WeBank, following the tenure of Li Nanqing, who led the bank for ten years and significantly expanded its asset scale [2]. - Huang has been with WeBank since its inception and has a deep understanding of its operations, having previously served as the deputy president [2][3]. Business Performance - As of mid-2025, WeBank's total assets reached 714.72 billion yuan, maintaining its position as the leading internet bank, but it reported a decline in both operating income (189.63 billion yuan, down 3.44%) and net profit (55.66 billion yuan, down 11.86%) for the first time [4]. - The proportion of personal consumer loans has decreased, with total loans and advances amounting to 435.976 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.18%, while consumer loans fell by 5.53% [4]. Regulatory Environment - The new lending regulations have compressed the leverage space for joint loans, impacting WeBank's reliance on products like "Weilidai" that depend on external funding [5][6]. - The regulations require internet banks to assume more risk capital in joint loans and restrict outsourcing of core risk control functions, challenging WeBank's "light capital" operational model [6]. Strategic Adjustments - WeBank is undergoing a transformation focusing on cost reduction, structural optimization, and technology-driven growth, with an emphasis on corporate loans and wealth management as new growth areas [7][8]. - The bank has established partnerships with numerous financial institutions for wealth management and has developed a comprehensive AI infrastructure to enhance its digital banking capabilities [8][9]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that WeBank's strategic adjustments should focus on enhancing middle-income through high-value services, leveraging technologies like blockchain for risk control, and exploring new financial sectors [9]. - Huang Liming's leadership is expected to strengthen the integration of WeBank's consumer and business ecosystems, fostering innovation and compliance in product development [9].

Core Viewpoint - The leading lending platforms have shown significant growth in Q2, with a focus on adapting to the upcoming regulatory changes in the lending industry, which are expected to accelerate industry consolidation and enhance risk control and consumer protection requirements [1][2][3]. Overall Performance Growth - The top three platforms, Qifu Technology, Lexin, and Xinye Technology, reported loan balances of 140.08 billion, 105.78 billion, and 75.4 billion RMB respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.4%, -8.1%, and 17.4% [2]. - Lexin achieved a net profit of 510 million RMB in Q2, a 126% increase year-on-year, while Qifu Technology and Xinye Technology reported revenues of 5.216 billion and 3.578 billion RMB, reflecting year-on-year growth of 25.38% and 12.94% respectively [2]. - Qifu Technology's net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders reached 1.734 billion RMB, up 25.6% year-on-year, and Xinye Technology's net profit was 751.3 million RMB, a 36.35% increase [2]. Changes in Business Models - The business structure of platforms has shifted, with a decrease in loan volume under the light capital model due to the upcoming regulatory changes, leading to increased funding costs for both light and heavy capital models [4][5]. - Lexin reported a decrease in the light capital model's share of GMV from 27% in Q1 to 20% in Q2, while the heavy capital model's share increased from 73% to 80% [4]. - Qifu Technology's total loan volume reached 84.609 billion RMB, a 16.1% increase year-on-year, but a 4.8% decrease from the previous quarter, with light capital loans accounting for 41.4% of the total [5]. New Growth Opportunities - Platforms are actively seeking new growth points outside traditional loan facilitation, with Xinye Technology reporting international market revenue of 1.5072 billion RMB in H1 2025, a 30.2% year-on-year increase [7]. - Lexin's credit facilitation service revenue was 2.27 billion RMB, down 15.0% year-on-year, while technology-enabled service revenue grew by 55.3% to 830 million RMB [8]. - Qifu Technology emphasizes AI-driven financial technology as its core growth potential, with its subsidiary achieving a 150% year-on-year growth in business scale [8]. Industry Trends - The industry is expected to focus on three main directions: deepening scenario finance, enhancing small and micro finance services using AI models, and strengthening data asset operations to improve risk control accuracy [8][9]. - The upcoming regulatory changes are anticipated to accelerate industry consolidation, favoring platforms with strong compliance capabilities and high technological barriers [9].

Core Insights - The financial technology industry has shown strong performance in Q2 2025, with leading players like Qifu Technology, Xinyi Technology, and Xiaoyin Technology reporting significant net profits [1][2] - The overall growth in net profits is attributed to supportive policies aimed at boosting consumption and the competitive advantages of leading firms in the market [1][3] Financial Performance - Qifu Technology reported a net profit of 17.31 billion yuan, followed by Xinyi Technology at 7.5 billion yuan, and others like Jiayin Technology and Lexin exceeding 5 billion yuan [2] - Jiayin Technology's revenue increased by 27.8% year-on-year to 18.86 billion yuan, with loan facilitation volume reaching 371 billion yuan, a 54.6% increase [2] - Lexin's net profit growth was driven by a significant turnaround in fair value gains from financial guarantee derivatives, moving from a loss of 3.68 billion yuan in Q2 2024 to a gain of 1.84 billion yuan in Q2 2025 [2] Market Dynamics - The recovery in credit demand, improved risk control models, and deeper collaboration with funding sources have contributed to enhanced asset quality and reduced funding costs [3] - The trend towards a "light capital" model is becoming a consensus among financial technology companies, allowing them to focus on customer acquisition and risk management without directly bearing credit risks [4][5] Technological Advancements - The second quarter saw a surge in the deployment of AI technologies across the financial technology sector, with companies like Jiayin Technology and Lexin investing heavily in AI-driven solutions to enhance operational efficiency [7][8] - Jiayin Technology launched a suite of AI assistants to improve data research efficiency and risk management, while Lexin expanded its AI capabilities significantly [7][8] International Expansion - The international market has emerged as a new growth engine for listed financial technology companies, with Xinyi Technology's international business revenue growing by 41.5% year-on-year [9][10] - Jiayin Technology reported over 200% growth in loan amounts in Indonesia, while Lexin is optimizing its customer acquisition strategies in overseas markets [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The "New Lending Regulations" have impacted the performance and strategies of leading lending institutions, with each showing distinct growth trajectories and challenges. Group 1: Company Performance - Xinyi Technology reported a net income of 3.578 billion RMB for Q2, a year-on-year increase of 12.94%, and a net profit of 751 million RMB, up 36.35% [1] - Q2 loan facilitation service fees contributed significantly to revenue growth, reaching 1.515 billion RMB, a 36.45% increase year-on-year, driven by expanded transaction volume and higher average service fees [1] - Q2 loan balance for Xinyi Technology was 77.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year growth of 18.1%, with domestic loans at 75.4 billion RMB (up 17.4%) and overseas loans at 2.1 billion RMB (up 50.0%) [1][3] - Q2 revenue for Qifu Technology was 5.216 billion RMB, a 25.38% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.731 billion RMB, up 25.72% [2] - Qifu Technology's total loan facilitation and issuance reached 84.609 billion RMB, a 16.1% increase year-on-year [6] - Lexin's total revenue for Q2 was 3.587 billion RMB, down 1.5% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 126% to 511 million RMB [2][4] Group 2: Market Trends and Strategies - The "New Lending Regulations" have led to tighter funding supplies and increased costs for lending institutions, prompting Lexin to adjust its business model by shifting from light capital to heavy capital modes [7][8] - Lexin's light capital model accounted for 20% of GMV in Q2, down from 27% in Q1, while heavy capital mode increased from 73% to 80% [7] - Qifu Technology's user base grew significantly, with over 60 million borrowers, a 12.3% increase year-on-year, and a high repeat borrowing rate of 93.8% [2] - Xinyi Technology's international business revenue reached 796.7 million RMB in Q2, a 41.5% increase year-on-year, representing 22.3% of total revenue [2][3] Group 3: Risk Management - Lexin's non-performing loan rate was the highest among the three companies at 3.1% [5] - Both Lexin and Qifu Technology have increased their provisions to enhance risk buffers, with Lexin raising provisions by 13.6% to 1.04 billion RMB, achieving a coverage ratio of 270% [9] - Qifu Technology's provision coverage ratio reached a historical high of 662% [9]

Core Viewpoint - The retail banking sector, once a significant profit driver, is now facing challenges, with a notable decline in profitability and a shift in strategic focus towards digital transformation and diversified revenue sources [1][4][23]. Retail Business Performance - In 2024, the pre-tax profit from retail financial services for China Merchants Bank (CMB) was 87.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.56%, leading to a drop in retail profit contribution to 50.74% [4][7]. - Wealth management fees and commissions fell by 25.24% to 20.19 billion yuan, while credit card fees decreased by 14.23% [4]. - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio for retail loans rose to 0.96%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points from the previous year [4][5]. Interest Margin and Loan Performance - The net interest margin (NIM) fell below 2% to 1.98% in 2024, further declining to 1.91% in Q1 2025, although still above the industry average of 1.43% [7][8]. - Retail loan growth was 6.06%, with a total balance of 3.58 trillion yuan, but this growth rate lagged behind the 11.58% growth in corporate loans [10][12]. Strategic Shift in Retail Banking - The retail banking sector is transitioning from a profit-centric model to a foundational asset configuration aimed at supporting inclusive finance and stimulating consumption [11][12]. - CMB is focusing on optimizing risk management and prioritizing low-risk customer segments while acknowledging the need for a strategic shift in retail banking [12][13]. New Growth Engines - CMB is exploring new avenues for growth, with its wealth management assets under management (AUM) reaching 14.93 trillion yuan, a 12.05% increase, and a significant portion of AUM being non-deposit [16][19]. - The bank's strategy includes international expansion, diversified operations, differentiated competition, and digital transformation, with a notable increase in bond investment returns by 34.74% to 29.88 billion yuan [17][18]. Market Confidence and Future Outlook - Long-term investments from entities like Ping An Life reflect market confidence in CMB's transformation strategy [18][22]. - CMB is not abandoning retail but is reconstructing its value chain, emphasizing customer base as a core asset, with over 210 million retail customers in 2024 [19][20].