Report Information - Report Title: Commodity Weekly Report - Report Date: September 22, 2025 - Analyst: Hu Jingyi from Guotou Futures - Investment Consulting Number: Z0019749 - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03090299 [1][5] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The commodity market rose 0.24% last week, with the black sector leading the gain at 2.27%. The Fed's 25bp rate cut and relatively stable Sino-US economic and trade negotiations create a neutral and warm macro - environment. With the support of the consumer peak season and pre - holiday restocking, the commodity market may run stably in the short term. Precious metals are likely to remain easy to rise and difficult to fall, while the short - term trend of other sectors varies [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Overall Market Performance**: The commodity market rose 0.24% last week, with the black sector up 2.27%, energy and chemicals up 1.42%, and precious metals, agricultural products, and non - ferrous metals down 0.8%, 0.78%, and 0.66% respectively. The top - rising varieties were coking coal, coke, and glass, while the top - falling ones were live pigs, soybean meal, and tin. The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market rebounded, and only the black and agricultural product sectors had net capital inflows [2][7]. - **Market Data Charts**: There are multiple charts showing the performance of different sectors and varieties, including the rise and fall of the Nanhua Index, the weekly contribution rate of each sector of the China Securities Commodity Index, the fluctuation of each variety's main contract, the performance of commodity - related sector indexes, the precipitation funds of each commodity sector, the weekly precipitation fund changes of each variety, the average trading - to - holding ratio of each variety, macro - high - frequency data, relevant ratios, and black - industry chain ratios [8][10][12] 3.2 Outlook for Different Sectors - **Precious Metals**: After the Fed's rate cut, the sector initially corrected due to profit - taking but rebounded on the dovish remarks of the new Fed governor. It is likely to remain easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: After the Fed's rate cut, the previous bullish sentiment cooled, but the restart of rate cuts still provides short - term support. With the pre - holiday restocking and improving macro - sentiment, the sector may run stably in the short term [3]. - **Black Sector**: The apparent demand for rebar improved, production continued to decline, and inventory decreased slightly. Steel mills have pre - holiday restocking needs, but low profit per ton restricts further production resumption. The iron ore port inventory decreased, and the coking coal's capacity expansion is less likely. The sector fluctuates with policy expectations [3]. - **Energy Sector**: Oil prices rose and then fell last week. The Fed's 25bp rate cut did not bring unexpected benefits, and the supply - demand contradiction after the peak oil - consumption season will gradually intensify. Geopolitical factors may cause short - term supply disruptions, but the premium space is limited. Trump's statement to lower oil prices also affects market sentiment. Oil prices may fluctuate weakly in the short term [3]. - **Chemical Sector**: For polyester, the weaving load decreased slightly, and filament inventory continued to accumulate. The downstream has pre - holiday stocking expectations, but cost support is weak. Building materials such as glass and PVC still face high - supply and low - demand situations, and attention should be paid to pre - holiday restocking demand [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: The actual export demand for US soybeans was poor, and the Sino - US call did not mention agricultural product trade. The overseas palm oil export data in the first half of September was inconsistent. The short - term domestic supply of oils and fats is relatively loose, and the sector may run in a volatile manner [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - The report provides information on various commodity ETFs, including net value, weekly return, scale, share change, trading volume, trading volume change, and underlying assets. Gold - related ETFs have different performance in terms of return and scale change, and other commodity ETFs such as energy - chemical and agricultural - product - related ones also show different trends [41]

Core Viewpoint - China National Chemical Corporation (Sinochem International) expects a significant net loss for the first half of 2025, with net profit attributable to shareholders ranging from -76,067 million to -89,490 million yuan, indicating a challenging financial outlook due to low product prices and operational difficulties [1][6]. Performance Forecast - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of -80,675 million to -94,911 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with a net profit excluding non-recurring items expected to be between -76,067 million and -89,490 million yuan [1]. - The forecast has not been audited by registered accountants [1]. Previous Year Comparison - In the same period last year, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1,232 million yuan, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was -82,525 million yuan [1]. - Earnings per share for the previous year were 0.003 yuan [1]. Reasons for Expected Loss - The primary reason for the expected loss is the impact of the main business operations, with product prices remaining at historical lows despite efforts to enhance operational capabilities [1]. - The company is focusing on improving operational management through marketing, production efficiency, and cost reduction in the supply chain [1]. Business Segments Overview - The company operates in five main segments: basic raw materials and intermediates, high-performance materials, polymer additives, chemical materials marketing, and other segments [3]. - The basic raw materials segment includes products like epoxy chloropropane and caustic soda, while high-performance materials include epoxy resins and ABS [3]. Production and Cost Management - The company has implemented strategies to increase production efficiency, achieving a 13% year-on-year increase in capacity utilization and a 2.4% reduction in production costs [2]. - Efforts to optimize procurement and logistics have resulted in a 3.5% decrease in procurement costs and a 4.2% reduction in logistics costs [2]. Market Conditions and Challenges - The company faces challenges in various product markets, with prices for key products like acetone and ABS declining due to market conditions [5]. - The ABS segment has seen a 2% decrease in revenue, while the aramid fiber segment has experienced a 23% drop in product prices [5]. Non-Operating Losses - The company has recognized losses related to the bankruptcy of a subsidiary, which has impacted its financial results [5]. - There has been a significant reduction in government subsidies compared to the previous year, further affecting profitability [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the ongoing weakness in the chemical industry chain, with various products in the energy and chemical markets experiencing fluctuations despite some temporary boosts from crude oil prices [1] - The polyester operating rate has fallen below 90%, with a significant decline of 7% in the last two weeks for both the spinning and weaving operating rates [1] - The downstream operating rates for styrene have also decreased, with the largest downstream EPS operating rate dropping by 4.8% [1] Group 2 - Crude oil prices are experiencing fluctuations as OPEC+ considers increasing production in September, leading to a continued consolidation in the market [1] - The cost support for LPG is weakening, maintaining a loose fundamental outlook, while asphalt and high-sulfur fuel oil face significant downward pressure [1] - Methanol's spot support is limited, and the market is expected to remain volatile, while urea supply and demand are both weak, with short-term fluctuations anticipated [1] Group 3 - Ethylene glycol's downstream operating rate has declined, while its own operating rate has increased, indicating a bearish outlook in the short term [1] - PX and PTA have rebounded due to a general rise in commodity prices, while short fiber operating rates remain stable, following raw material fluctuations [1] - The market outlook for the energy and chemical sectors is expected to remain weak, awaiting new supply and demand drivers [1]