BZ&Eb周报：BZ处于区间上沿，关注逢 高空的机会 • 2）跨期：关注EB02-03反套 国泰君安期货研究所·黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 日期：2026年01月11日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周纯苯、苯乙烯总结：原油地缘风险高开之后，关注逢高空的机会 • 纯苯国产：12月检修11万吨，1月检修维持11万吨（假设考虑浙石化检修带来4.5万吨减量），主要是中化泉州、丽东、浙石化等装置检修量大。部分山东 地炼在解决了配额问题之后仍会提高负荷，弥补部分产量损失。1月关注巴斯夫湛江新投产带来的纯苯增量。 • 纯苯进口：外盘压力仍然偏大，韩国纯苯抛压在12月仍然偏大，进口居高难下。1月目前进口分歧较大，预计仍然在48万吨左右的高进口，2月之后的进口 仍然在45万吨左右。 • 苯乙烯：12月检修8.5万吨，1月检修6.5万吨。12月之后装置开工逐步恢复，关注山东国恩化工装置开工带来的增量。 • 己内酰胺：CPL负反馈开始，工厂逐步降低负荷，12月预计4万吨检修,1月有6万吨检修，主要是福建永荣、天辰 ...

（来源：紫金天风期货研究所） 来源：紫金天风期货研究所 【20260106】聚酯周报：估值有修复，预期尚可 PTA观点小结 核心观点：中性 假期PTA变化不大，聚酯略降负，近端平衡偏紧，1-2月季节性累库压力不大，现货加 工费走扩较明显，估值修复后驱动一般，短期关注成本和资金影响。 现货：中性 PTA现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差偏强，1月在05-40~45附近商谈。 成本：中性 PX供应有提负计划，PXN高位持稳，估值有修复。 装置变动：中性 PTA装置检修中，关注加工费修复后检修是否存在变数，YS3套检修中，中泰重启，独 山1重启，独山3检修，威联提负至9成，1月新材料、英力士有检修计划。 下游需求：中性 需求织造季节性略走淡，聚酯大厂有减仓，节后负荷90.8%不低，聚酯12-1月开工评估 91%、88%。加弹、织机、印染有降负至74%、59%、69%。 供需平衡：谨慎偏强 PTA国内检修高位，聚酯负荷持稳，12月平衡偏紧去库，1-2月累库压力季节性同 比不高。 加工利润：谨慎偏空 PTA-布油价差修复较多，PXN至350+美元偏高，PTA加工费修复至300+元。 PX观点小结 核心观点：中性 PX供需尚 ...

Summary of Epoxy Reactive Diluent Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The epoxy reactive diluent industry is facing significant supply chain disruptions due to a fire incident at Anhui Xinyuan Chemical, which has halted production in its main facility for an estimated recovery period of six months to one year, impacting global supply, particularly in glycerol ether products [1][8]. - Global demand for epoxy reactive diluents is approximately 250,000 to 300,000 tons, with the Chinese market accounting for around 160,000 tons [2][16]. - Anhui Xinyuan holds over 20% of the global market share, and its production halt is expected to exacerbate supply-demand imbalances, leading to price increases, with general product prices potentially rising to 30,000 to 40,000 yuan [1][24]. Key Points and Arguments - Epoxy reactive diluents constitute 5-10% of the epoxy resin system, and while price increases may affect downstream product costs, the overall impact is considered limited. If prices exceed 30,000 yuan, the pace of substitution may accelerate, especially in sectors like wind turbine blades [1][7]. - Domestic competitors such as Jiangshan Sanmu and Hubei Green Home have some market share but lack the production capacity to fully cover the market gap left by Xinyuan in the short term [1][5]. - Xinyuan's products are priced 500 to 1,000 yuan higher than competitors, with a gross margin exceeding that of bisphenol A epoxy resins, indicating a strong brand premium and technical barriers [3][28]. - The traditional application areas for epoxy resins, including composites, coatings, electronics, and adhesives, account for over 90% of the market, with composites representing about 50% [12][13]. Market Dynamics - The current most scarce type of epoxy reactive diluent is glycerol ether products, with limited production capacity from other suppliers, which may not be able to meet the increased demand due to safety and environmental regulations [9][5]. - The price of epoxy resins is currently around 20,000 yuan, with potential increases of 30% to 40% for general products, indicating significant upward price pressure in the near future [11][24]. - The fire incident at Xinyuan has raised concerns about the safety and environmental standards in the industry, prompting potential regulatory scrutiny and operational adjustments among other manufacturers [14][23]. Potential Opportunities and Risks - Companies like Kanda New Materials and Huangma Technology may have opportunities to partially fill the supply gap, but their ability to do so is contingent on regulatory approvals and product specifications [10][6]. - The overall market for epoxy reactive diluents is expected to remain tight, with historical precedents indicating that supply shortages can lead to significant price volatility [17][11]. - The wind turbine blade market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 10.8% to 12.5% from 2025 to 2030, representing a promising area for future investment [13]. Conclusion - The fire incident at Anhui Xinyuan Chemical has created a critical supply shortage in the epoxy reactive diluent market, with significant implications for pricing and availability. The industry is likely to experience increased prices and potential shifts in supplier dynamics as companies seek to adapt to the changing landscape [30][1].