投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2026-01-27 哈萨克斯坦原油供应即将回归，地缘和 预期促使能化延续震荡 原油市场延续震荡整理格局，多重因素作用于油价之上。原油实际供 需而言，彭博报道哈萨克斯坦的原油出口终端已经完成修复，田吉兹巨型 油田的生产也即将重启，这将有助于缓解欧洲市场的偏紧格局。1月20日 当周，强冬季风暴登陆美国大西洋沿岸，带来强降雪和冻雨天气，2月3日 左右美国气温又将明显回升。美国总统特朗普向中东地区派遣海军兵力 后，当地地缘紧张局势持续升级，伊朗日产原油超过300万桶，是具有地 缘意义的产油国，局势的不确定性对油价形成支撑。（以上新闻和数据均 来自彭博终端） 板块逻辑： 化工延续震荡整理态势，供需面的因素退居其次，预期的力量依旧较 强。液体化工库存周度全线增加，纯苯华东港口库存环比增2.69%，苯乙 烯华东港口库存环比增7.59%，乙二醇华东港口库存环比增7.8%，化工实 体需求即将逐步进入消费淡季，产业将逐步累库。化工整体处于震荡格 局，芳烃生产已经出现利润，但当前也看不到供给大幅增加打压价格的情 况；聚烯烃期价反弹，油制烯烃生产盈亏格 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: The current situation remains poor. Iranian plant shutdowns are slower than expected, and high imports are likely in November. The contradiction in the 01 contract is difficult to resolve. Port sanctions are expected to be resolved before the end of gas restrictions, but inventory reduction is difficult. Methanol has limited upside potential, and the downside space depends on the situation in the inland region. Recently, coal prices have strengthened, but it has no impact on profits [1]. - **Polyethylene**: Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is about -110 in North China and -50 in East China. Import profits are around -200 with no further increase for now. Non-standard HD injection molding prices are stable, while other price differentials are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. Domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US price quotes. New device pressure is high in 2025 [6]. - **Polypropylene**: Upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing. The basis is -60, non - standard price differentials are neutral, and import profits are around -700. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard price differentials are neutral. PDH profits are around -400, and propylene prices are fluctuating. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly. Under the background of overcapacity, the 01 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH device overhauls, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [6]. - **PVC**: The basis remains at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is -480. Downstream开工率 is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold inventory at low prices is strong. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. In Q4, attention should be paid to production capacity implementation and export sustainability. Near - term export orders have slightly decreased. Coal sentiment is positive, and costs are stable. Static inventory contradictions are accumulating slowly. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and开工率 [6]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From October 31, 2025, to November 6, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The prices of various regional spot and futures showed different degrees of decline, with the most significant decline in the port price of 15 [1]. - **Analysis**: The high import volume in November and the difficulty in resolving the 01 contract contradiction lead to limited inventory reduction and weak price increases [1]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From October 31, 2025, to November 6, 2025, the price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained at 740. The prices of various regional spot and futures showed a downward trend, with the主力期货 price dropping by 9 on November 6 compared with the previous day [6]. - **Analysis**: Overall inventory is neutral, and the market is affected by factors such as import profits, production, and new device pressure [6]. Polypropylene - **Price Data**: From October 31, 2025, to November 6, 2025, the prices of Shandong propylene and Northeast Asian propylene showed a downward trend, and the prices of various regional spot and futures also decreased. The主力期货 price dropped by 20 on November 6 compared with the previous day [6]. - **Analysis**: Inventory is decreasing, and the market is affected by factors such as valuation, supply, and demand [6]. PVC - **Price Data**: From October 31, 2025, to November 6, 2025, the prices of Northwest calcium carbide and Shandong caustic soda remained stable, while the prices of various PVC products showed a downward trend, with the price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China dropping by 20 [6]. - **Analysis**: The basis remains stable, downstream开工率 is weakening, and inventories are accumulating. Attention should be paid to production capacity implementation and export sustainability [6].