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国投期货化工日报-20250915
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 13:15
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - Propylene: ★★★ [1] - Plastic: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] Report's Core Views - The overall chemical market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. Some products are facing supply - demand imbalances, while others are affected by factors such as new device commissioning, seasonal demand, and inventory changes [2][3][5]. - In the short - term, market sentiment is mixed, with some products having potential for improvement and others being under pressure. Long - term trends are also influenced by factors like overseas policies and new capacity additions [6][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures rose with market lacking news guidance and downstream demand mainly for rigid needs, and enterprise shipment differentiation suppressing prices [2]. - Polyolefin futures fell. PE downstream has a peak season for agricultural film, with increased purchasing, but other industries have limited demand. PP supply may decrease due to maintenance, but downstream procurement is restricted by poor profits and low confidence [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices fluctuated around 6000 yuan/ton. Supply and demand may improve in Q3, but currently downstream profitability, import expectations, and oil prices are dragging down the price [3]. - Styrene futures fell. Supply pressure eased as the operating rate declined, and downstream demand was strong. Port inventory decreased with an upward - moving spot price [3]. Polyester - PX and PTA prices were in a cross - star pattern. PTA was driven by raw materials, with inventory decreasing but processing margins and basis weakening. Terminal demand was improving, but polyester yarn inventory was high and profit was poor [5]. - Ethylene glycol was pressured by new device news. Domestic production decreased slightly, and port inventory continued to decline [5]. - Short fiber supply and demand were stable, with prices following costs. It was recommended to go long on the near - month contract before the National Day [5]. - Bottle chip downstream had rigid demand, with basis and processing margins rebounding slightly, but long - term over - capacity was a pressure [5]. Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures rebounded. Coastal demand increased, and domestic device operating rates decreased. However, high inventory limited the market's upside potential, and long - term overseas gas restrictions need to be monitored [6]. - Urea futures rebounded. Supply was sufficient, and demand from both industry and agriculture improved. The market remained in a supply - demand - loose situation [6]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC was slightly stronger. It had a high - supply, low - demand, and high - inventory pattern, and new production in September increased supply pressure [7]. - Caustic soda fluctuated. The industry's inventory decreased, but supply pressure remained due to high profits, and prices were expected to be in a wide - range oscillation [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash was slightly stronger. Inventory decreased, and supply was high. In the short - term, it was at a low valuation, and long - term supply was in surplus [8]. - Glass was stronger. Inventory decreased, and processing orders improved. It was at a low valuation and expected to follow macro - sentiment [8].
化工日报-20250620
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 12:12
| Million | 国收期货 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年06月20日 | | 尿素 | ななな | 甲醇 | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 苯乙烯 | ★☆★ | 塑料 | ★☆★ | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 影丙烯 | ★☆★ | PVC | ☆☆☆ | | | 烧碱 | ★☆☆ | PX | ★☆★ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | PTA | ★☆★ | 乙二醇 | ★☆★ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 短纤 | ★☆☆ | 玻璃 | ☆☆☆ | 王雪忆 分析师 | | 纯碱 | 文文文 瓶片 | | ★☆★ | F03125010 | | | | | | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | | | | | F03089068 Z0016691 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【聚烯烃】 聚烯烃期货主力合约日内窄幅波动。聚乙烯国内货源供应窄幅减少,随着前期远洋 ...