Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report In the context of weakening cost - end support and the expectation of a weakening supply - demand structure, the domestic styrene futures are expected to have limited upward momentum in the future and may maintain a volatile and stable trend [2][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Supply Situation - In recent years, the domestic styrene supply side has shown the dual characteristics of "accelerated capacity expansion + high inventory". From 2021 - 2023, styrene capacity expanded by 9.25 million tons/year, an increase of 76.81%. In 2025, the capacity increased by 11.46% year - on - year, with new production capacity of 1.87 million tons/year, mainly in East China and coastal areas, and the annual output is expected to increase by 14.26% year - on - year [3]. - The annual maintenance loss decreased by nearly half compared with last year, and the overall industry operating rate remained high. Only in the fourth quarter, there were plans to reduce the load or conduct maintenance on devices with a capacity of 4.08 million tons/year, which partially relieved the supply pressure. As of the week of December 26, 2025, domestic styrene production was 354,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.25%, and the factory capacity utilization rate was 70.70%, a week - on - week increase of 1.57% [3]. - Inventory accumulation has been one of the main driving factors for the price decline throughout the year. Although the main ports in China showed a continuous de - stocking trend in mid - to - late December, the de - stocking space was limited due to high source concentration. After the festival, with the resumption of maintenance work, the inventory accumulation pressure reappeared [3]. Demand Situation - The total demand of the three major downstream industries of styrene, EPS, PS, and ABS, accounts for more than 70%. In 2025, although there was new capacity of 2.115 million tons/year put into production, the demand growth rate of 10.93% still lagged behind the supply growth rate, and the supply - demand mismatch problem was prominent [4]. - The ABS industry performed well, with the cumulative output from January to October increasing by 27.53% year - on - year, but the high output was not fully digested, and the accumulation of finished product inventory led to intensified industry losses. The EPS industry showed structural differentiation. The demand for cold - chain logistics packaging was stable, but the real - estate downturn suppressed the consumption in the building insulation field. The PS industry was in the dilemma of "excess in the low - end and shortage in the high - end", and the industry operating rate was only 55%, at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [4]. - In terms of terminal demand, white - goods had policy support but with mixed results. In November 2025, the production of air conditioners and color TVs in China decreased by 23.4% and 5.0% year - on - year respectively, while the production of washing machines and refrigerators increased by 5.5% and 5.6% respectively. From January to November, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 4,440.35 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.6%. The real - estate market remained weak, making it difficult to change the demand expectation for styrene [4]. Cost Situation - Styrene has a strong correlation with the price of upstream pure benzene, which accounts for nearly 80% of its production cost. In 2025, due to the bottom - oscillating international oil price and the loose supply - demand of pure benzene, the price center of pure benzene continued to move down. The continuous inventory accumulation in the main ports of pure benzene and the abundant import resources made its price difficult to rise, weakening the cost support for styrene [5]. - After the recent decline of domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices, the downward pressure on pure benzene increased, further weakening its support for styrene. In terms of industrial chain profit distribution, the downstream industries of EPS, PS, and ABS had poor profitability due to the difficulty of following the raw material price increase, which further suppressed the enthusiasm for raw material procurement [5].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry No information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Views of the Report - OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, suggesting the bottom of crude oil prices may have been reached. Polyolefin overall profits are declining, and the inventory at the mid - and upstream levels is being reduced. Given the low valuation of polyolefins, once the cost - end crude oil starts to rebound, polyolefins may rise significantly [16][17]. - The recommended strategy is to go long on the LL - PP spread at low prices [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Valuation**: OPEC+'s plan to suspend production growth in Q1 2026 may indicate the bottom of crude oil prices [16]. - **Cost End**: WTI crude oil dropped by 3.45%, Brent by 2.95%, coal price remained unchanged at 0.00%, methanol fell by 6.73%, ethylene by 8.75%, propylene by 10.23%, and propane remained unchanged at 0.00%. The low - level rebound of oil prices has a significant impact on the cost end under the background of weak supply and demand [16]. - **Supply End**: PE capacity utilization was 83.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.76% and a year - on - year increase of 4.75%, 5.42% lower than the 5 - year average. PP capacity utilization was 78.55%, a month - on - month increase of 1.76% and a year - on - year increase of 5.46%, 5.87% lower than the 5 - year average. There were differences in the supply end of the polyolefin 2601 contract, with only 400,000 tons of planned PE capacity and 1.45 million tons of planned PP capacity [16]. - **Import and Export**: In September, domestic PE imports were 1.0222 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.58% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.04%. PP imports were 177,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.18%. The export season arrived. In September, PE exports were 99,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.48% and a year - on - year increase of 63.54%. PP exports were 208,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.82% and a year - on - year increase of 21.14% [16]. - **Demand End**: PE downstream operating rate was 45%, a month - on - month increase of 1.44% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.09%. PP downstream operating rate was 52.61%, a month - on - month increase of 1.74% and a year - on - year increase of 1.23%. During the seasonal peak season, the overall operating rate reached the same level as previous years, and the demand for PE agricultural film raw materials was good [17]. - **Inventory**: PE production enterprise inventory was 490,200 tons, a month - on - month inventory accumulation of 0.33% and a year - on - year inventory accumulation of 20.44%. PE trader inventory was 50,100 tons, a month - on - month inventory reduction of 7.28% and a year - on - year inventory accumulation of 0.58%. PP production enterprise inventory was 599,900 tons, a month - on - month inventory reduction of 11.96% and a year - on - year inventory accumulation of 12.11%. PP trader inventory was 228,600 tons, a month - on - month inventory reduction of 12.45% and a year - on - year inventory accumulation of 87.68%. PP port inventory was 64,600 tons, a month - on - month inventory reduction of 5.97% and a year - on - year inventory accumulation of 5.04% [17]. - **Next - Month Forecast**: The reference oscillation range for polyethylene (L2601) is (6600 - 6900); for polypropylene (PP2601), it is (6300 - 6600) [17]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Multiple charts are presented, including PE and PP term structures,主力 contract prices, basis, spreads, trading volumes, open interests, registered warrant volumes, and virtual - to - real ratios, showing the historical data trends from 2021 to 2025 [34][49]. 3.3 Cost End - The cost - end crude oil prices are oscillating at the bottom. The report provides price trend charts of WTI crude oil, steam coal, methanol, propane, etc., as well as data on LPG supply, production, import, and related profit margins and capacity utilization rates [85][96]. 3.4 Polyethylene Supply End - **Raw Material Proportion**: Charts show the proportion of PE production raw materials and their annual changes, including oil - based, coal - based, methanol - based, and light - hydrocarbon - based PE [131][133]. - **Capacity and Production**: PE capacity, production, and capacity growth rate data from 2014 to 2025E are presented. In 2025, there are multiple domestic polyethylene production projects, with 4.63 million tons already put into production and 400,000 tons yet to be [136][137]. - **Capacity Utilization and Maintenance Loss**: PE capacity utilization and maintenance loss data are provided, showing historical trends from 2021 to 2025 [138][140]. 3.5 Polyethylene Inventory and Import - Export - **Inventory**: Charts display the trends of total inventory, production enterprise inventory, two - oil inventory, and trader inventory of PE from 2021 to 2025 [146][148]. - **Import - Export**: Charts show the monthly and cumulative import and export volumes of PE from 2021 to 2025, including LLDPE export volume [151][156]. 3.6 Polyethylene Demand End - **Demand Proportion**: Charts show the proportion of polyethylene downstream demand and terminal demand, including packaging film, hollow products, pipes, injection molding, agricultural film, etc. [163][164]. - **Related Indicators**: Charts show CPI year - on - year and month - on - month changes, downstream demand cumulative year - on - year changes, and the operating rates of various downstream industries of PE from 2021 to 2025 [167][168].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★☆★ [1] - Plastic: ★☆★ [1] - Propylene: ★☆★ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - PX: ★☆★ [1] - PTA: ★☆★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆★ [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆☆ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆★ [1] Core Views - The methanol market trading sentiment is high, and the short - term main contract will maintain a strong operation, but there is a risk of a mid - term high - level decline [2]. - The urea futures main contract is expected to oscillate and decline in the short term [3]. - The polyolefin futures main contract fluctuates narrowly, and the cost - end oil price has a strong leading effect on polyethylene prices [4]. - The styrene futures main contract fluctuates narrowly, and the cost - end drives the price up, but there is supply - side pressure [6]. - The polyester market is short - term strong with potential negative factors, and there is a risk of a mid - term decline [7]. - The PVC price may oscillate at a low level in the medium - to - long term, and the caustic soda price is under high - level pressure [8]. - The glass market is driven weakly, and the soda ash market is expected to adopt a high - level short - selling strategy [9]. Summary by Product Methanol - Iran's methanol plants have large - scale shutdowns and production cuts, and the shipping safety risk in the Strait of Hormuz has increased. The port inventory is low and in a destocking cycle, and the import volume in China's coastal areas may be much lower than expected [2]. Urea - The agricultural demand is gradually coming to the end of the peak season, and downstream resistance to high - priced urea is increasing. The inventory of production enterprises has decreased, and the port inventory has increased. There are rumors about export policy adjustments [3]. Polyolefin - The domestic supply of polyethylene has decreased slightly, and there is an expected increase in some imports. The demand is mainly based on rigid needs. The cost - end oil price has a strong impact on polyethylene prices. The supply of polypropylene has increased, and the demand is in the off - season [4]. Styrene - The cost - end oil price is expected to be strong in the short term, which boosts the styrene price. The styrene operating rate has been rising, and the supply - side pressure is prominent [6]. Polyester - Affected by the decline in oil prices, PX and PTA prices have oscillated and declined. The pressure on polyester filament enterprises is not large, but the demand is weakening. The ethylene glycol supply is expected to decline, and the downstream demand is weakening. Short fiber and bottle chip follow the raw material price fluctuations [7]. Chlor - Alkali - The PVC price is strong due to the rise in energy prices caused by geopolitical conflicts. The ethylene - based profit has decreased, and the calcium carbide - based profit has increased. The caustic soda price has declined due to the downstream suppression [8]. Glass and Soda Ash - The glass in the Shahe area is running strongly, but the overall industry has high inventory and weak demand. The soda ash inventory is accumulating, and the supply is under high pressure [9].