1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry No information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Views of the Report - OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, suggesting the bottom of crude oil prices may have been reached. Polyolefin overall profits are declining, and the inventory at the mid - and upstream levels is being reduced. Given the low valuation of polyolefins, once the cost - end crude oil starts to rebound, polyolefins may rise significantly [16][17]. - The recommended strategy is to go long on the LL - PP spread at low prices [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Valuation**: OPEC+'s plan to suspend production growth in Q1 2026 may indicate the bottom of crude oil prices [16]. - **Cost End**: WTI crude oil dropped by 3.45%, Brent by 2.95%, coal price remained unchanged at 0.00%, methanol fell by 6.73%, ethylene by 8.75%, propylene by 10.23%, and propane remained unchanged at 0.00%. The low - level rebound of oil prices has a significant impact on the cost end under the background of weak supply and demand [16]. - **Supply End**: PE capacity utilization was 83.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.76% and a year - on - year increase of 4.75%, 5.42% lower than the 5 - year average. PP capacity utilization was 78.55%, a month - on - month increase of 1.76% and a year - on - year increase of 5.46%, 5.87% lower than the 5 - year average. There were differences in the supply end of the polyolefin 2601 contract, with only 400,000 tons of planned PE capacity and 1.45 million tons of planned PP capacity [16]. - **Import and Export**: In September, domestic PE imports were 1.0222 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.58% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.04%. PP imports were 177,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.18%. The export season arrived. In September, PE exports were 99,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.48% and a year - on - year increase of 63.54%. PP exports were 208,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.82% and a year - on - year increase of 21.14% [16]. - **Demand End**: PE downstream operating rate was 45%, a month - on - month increase of 1.44% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.09%. PP downstream operating rate was 52.61%, a month - on - month increase of 1.74% and a year - on - year increase of 1.23%. During the seasonal peak season, the overall operating rate reached the same level as previous years, and the demand for PE agricultural film raw materials was good [17]. - **Inventory**: PE production enterprise inventory was 490,200 tons, a month - on - month inventory accumulation of 0.33% and a year - on - year inventory accumulation of 20.44%. PE trader inventory was 50,100 tons, a month - on - month inventory reduction of 7.28% and a year - on - year inventory accumulation of 0.58%. PP production enterprise inventory was 599,900 tons, a month - on - month inventory reduction of 11.96% and a year - on - year inventory accumulation of 12.11%. PP trader inventory was 228,600 tons, a month - on - month inventory reduction of 12.45% and a year - on - year inventory accumulation of 87.68%. PP port inventory was 64,600 tons, a month - on - month inventory reduction of 5.97% and a year - on - year inventory accumulation of 5.04% [17]. - **Next - Month Forecast**: The reference oscillation range for polyethylene (L2601) is (6600 - 6900); for polypropylene (PP2601), it is (6300 - 6600) [17]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Multiple charts are presented, including PE and PP term structures,主力 contract prices, basis, spreads, trading volumes, open interests, registered warrant volumes, and virtual - to - real ratios, showing the historical data trends from 2021 to 2025 [34][49]. 3.3 Cost End - The cost - end crude oil prices are oscillating at the bottom. The report provides price trend charts of WTI crude oil, steam coal, methanol, propane, etc., as well as data on LPG supply, production, import, and related profit margins and capacity utilization rates [85][96]. 3.4 Polyethylene Supply End - **Raw Material Proportion**: Charts show the proportion of PE production raw materials and their annual changes, including oil - based, coal - based, methanol - based, and light - hydrocarbon - based PE [131][133]. - **Capacity and Production**: PE capacity, production, and capacity growth rate data from 2014 to 2025E are presented. In 2025, there are multiple domestic polyethylene production projects, with 4.63 million tons already put into production and 400,000 tons yet to be [136][137]. - **Capacity Utilization and Maintenance Loss**: PE capacity utilization and maintenance loss data are provided, showing historical trends from 2021 to 2025 [138][140]. 3.5 Polyethylene Inventory and Import - Export - **Inventory**: Charts display the trends of total inventory, production enterprise inventory, two - oil inventory, and trader inventory of PE from 2021 to 2025 [146][148]. - **Import - Export**: Charts show the monthly and cumulative import and export volumes of PE from 2021 to 2025, including LLDPE export volume [151][156]. 3.6 Polyethylene Demand End - **Demand Proportion**: Charts show the proportion of polyethylene downstream demand and terminal demand, including packaging film, hollow products, pipes, injection molding, agricultural film, etc. [163][164]. - **Related Indicators**: Charts show CPI year - on - year and month - on - month changes, downstream demand cumulative year - on - year changes, and the operating rates of various downstream industries of PE from 2021 to 2025 [167][168].

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