1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The PVC market rebounds due to macro - sentiment, with marginal improvement in supply - demand. The overall supply is still abundant, and the improvement in supply - demand is limited. Attention should be paid to subsequent device maintenance and macro - side policy dynamics. The caustic soda spot price is stable with a downward trend, showing regional differences. The supply - side starts to increase slightly, and the demand - side has mixed performance. Key factors to watch include liquid chlorine price fluctuations, device dynamics, and the implementation of macro anti - involution details [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - **Futures Price and Basis**: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,757 yuan/ton (- 24), the East China basis is - 277 yuan/ton (+ 24), and the South China basis is - 237 yuan/ton (+ 44) [1] - **Spot Price**: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,480 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,520 yuan/ton (+ 20) [1] - **Upstream Production Profit**: The semi - coke price is 750 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide price is 2,780 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide profit is - 110 yuan/ton (+ 0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is - 986 yuan/ton (+ 116), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is - 469 yuan/ton (+ 51), and the PVC export profit is - 11.7 US dollars/ton (- 5.7) [1] - **PVC Inventory and Start - up**: The in - plant PVC inventory is 32.9 million tons (- 1.6), the social PVC inventory is 51.1 million tons (- 0.7), the start - up rate of PVC calcium carbide - based production is 77.46% (+ 0.45%), the start - up rate of PVC ethylene - based production is 70.73% (- 3.33%), and the overall PVC start - up rate is 75.42% (- 0.70%) [1] - **Downstream Order Situation**: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 76.2 million tons (+ 11.4) [1] Caustic Soda - **Futures Price and Basis**: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,233 yuan/ton (- 17), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1 yuan/ton (+ 1) [1] - **Spot Price**: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 715 yuan/ton (- 5), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,140 yuan/ton (+ 0) [2] - **Upstream Production Profit**: The single - product profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,214 yuan/ton (- 16), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 529.4 yuan/ton (- 55.6), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 222.58 yuan/ton (+ 4.38), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 423.99 yuan/ton (+ 30.00) [2] - **Caustic Soda Inventory and Start - up**: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 44.22 million tons (- 2.25), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.97 million tons (- 0.54), and the caustic soda start - up rate is 86.00% (+ 1.50%) [2] - **Caustic Soda Downstream Start - up**: The alumina start - up rate is 85.00% (- 1.11%), the printing and dyeing start - up rate in East China is 61.28% (- 0.78%), and the viscose staple fiber start - up rate is 87.03% (- 2.59%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - **Macro Factors**: The "15th Five - Year Plan" draft compilation meeting and the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development's emphasis on stabilizing the real estate market boost PVC demand expectations. The statements of the financial regulatory authorities and the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission strengthen the policy atmosphere [3] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply decreases slightly due to new and continued device maintenance, but the supply side is still abundant. Downstream start - up decreases slightly, and the export orders remain resilient before the double festivals. Social inventory is slightly reduced but still at a high level year - on - year [3] - **Profit and Market Pressure**: The comprehensive chlor - alkali production profit of the upstream PVC has some recovery, but it is still at a low level year - on - year. The calcium carbide and semi - coke production are both in the red. The high - level warehouse receipts put pressure on the PVC futures price [3] Caustic Soda - **Price and Inventory**: The caustic soda spot price is stable with a downward trend, showing regional differences. Shandong's inventory pressure is partially relieved, while Jiangsu's caustic soda inventory accumulates [3] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply - side start - up rate increases slightly, and the overall start - up is at a high level. The liquid chlorine price is positive but is expected to decline further, which may strengthen the cost support. The alumina plant's demand is relatively stable, while non - aluminum demand weakens [3] Strategy - **PVC**: The unilateral strategy is to oscillate, the inter - period strategy is to wait and see, and there is no cross - variety strategy [5] - **Caustic Soda**: The unilateral strategy is to oscillate, the inter - period strategy is to wait and see, and there is no cross - variety strategy [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - PVC is affected by macro - sentiment and rebounds, with a slight improvement in supply - demand. The overall supply decreases slightly, but the supply end is still abundant. The downstream开工 drops slightly, and the export orders remain resilient. The overall supply - demand improvement is limited. [3] - The caustic soda futures price rebounds due to the anti - "involution" sentiment, with a slight improvement in supply - demand. The spot price is mainly stable, and the demand for low - priced goods improves slightly. The inventory pressure in Shandong is partially relieved, but the national caustic soda inventory accumulates slightly. [4] Group 3: Summary of Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,738 yuan/ton (+147), the East China basis is - 298 yuan/ton (-67), and the South China basis is - 288 yuan/ton (-97) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide method quotes 4,440 yuan/ton (+80), and the South China calcium carbide method quotes 4,450 yuan/ton (+50) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 780 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2,780 yuan/ton (-50), the calcium carbide profit is - 134 yuan/ton (-50), the PVC calcium carbide method production gross profit is - 986 yuan/ton (+116), the PVC ethylene method production gross profit is - 469 yuan/ton (+51), and the PVC export profit is - 0.9 US dollars/ton (+4.7) [1] - Inventory and operation: The in - factory PVC inventory is 32.9 million tons (-1.6), the social PVC inventory is 51.1 million tons (-0.7), the PVC calcium carbide method operation rate is 77.01% (-2.12%), the PVC ethylene method operation rate is 74.06% (-2.61%), and the PVC operation rate is 76.12% (-2.27%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 76.2 million tons (+11.4) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,219 yuan/ton (+38), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 31 yuan/ton (-38) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 720 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,140 yuan/ton (+0) [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,229 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 585.0 yuan/ton (+0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 246.96 yuan/ton (+130.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 340.39 yuan/ton (+30.00) [2] - Inventory and operation: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 46.47 million tons (+0.76), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 3.51 million tons (+0.06), and the caustic soda operation rate is 84.50% (-1.70%) [2] - Downstream operation of caustic soda: The alumina operation rate is 85.00% (-1.11%), the dyeing and printing operation rate in East China is 62.06% (-0.68%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 89.62% (+0.00%) [2] Group 4: Summary of Market Analysis PVC - Macro factors: The "15th Five - Year Plan" and the emphasis on stabilizing the real estate market boost the demand expectation of PVC. The statements of the financial regulatory authorities and the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission strengthen the policy atmosphere [3] - Supply: One more enterprise conducts maintenance this week, and some calcium carbide method enterprises continue to reduce production. The overall supply decreases slightly, but the supply end is still abundant as all new PVC installations in 2025 have been put into production [3] - Demand: The downstream operation drops slightly, with pipes remaining stable and profiles and films decreasing. The downstream purchases at low prices, and the trading volume is light when the futures price rebounds. The export orders remain resilient before the double festivals [3] - Profit: The comprehensive chlor - alkali production profit at the upstream PVC end is repaired to some extent, but it is still at a low level year - on - year. The calcium carbide price drops, resulting in a loss in production profit, and the semi - coke price also drops slightly, with the profit end remaining in a loss state [3] - Other factors: The high - level warehouse receipts put pressure on the PVC futures price. The news of overseas factory closures or bankruptcy applications supports the market sentiment to a certain extent [3] Caustic Soda - Market trend: The caustic soda futures price rebounds due to the anti - "involution" sentiment, with a slight improvement in supply - demand [4] - Supply: The supply - end operation rate drops slightly, but the overall operation is at a high level. The liquid chlorine price is still positive, and the high - level operation of caustic soda is maintained. However, the liquid chlorine price in Shandong is expected to drop in late December, and the cost support may strengthen [4] - Demand: The alumina factory operation is relatively stable, the purchase price is stable, and the non - aluminum demand weakens. The demand for low - priced goods improves marginally, but the supply - end pressure remains as there is no reduction in supply [4] Group 5: Summary of Strategies PVC - Single - side: Fluctuate strongly with the macro situation - Inter - delivery spread: Wait and see - Inter - commodity spread: None [6] Caustic Soda - Single - side: Fluctuate strongly with the macro situation - Inter - delivery spread: Wait and see - Inter - commodity spread: None [6]

Group 1 - The company, Chenming Paper Industry, is taking measures to ensure orderly resumption of production at its main production bases and to enhance its operational sustainability by addressing debt risks [1][2] - The local governments of Weifang and Shouguang have established a wholly state-owned company, Weifang Xingchen, to support the company's recovery efforts [1][2] - Weifang Xingchen has collaborated with financial institutions to secure a syndicated loan of RMB 2.31 billion specifically for the company's resumption of production, with all participating banks having completed their approval processes [1] Group 2 - To meet the loan disbursement conditions, the company's subsidiary, Shouguang Kunhe, will provide collateral in the form of land and property located in Shouguang City, with a maximum guarantee amount of RMB 206.35 million and a term not exceeding 5 years [1] - Another subsidiary, Chenming Leasing, will also provide collateral for the syndicated loan, with a maximum guarantee amount of RMB 23.35 million and a term not exceeding 5 years [1] - For the funding needs of the Jilin base, Weifang Xingchen's wholly-owned subsidiary, Jilin Xingchen, will collaborate with Jilin Bank to secure additional loans, with the company providing joint liability guarantees [1][2] Group 3 - The establishment of Weifang Xingchen and Jilin Xingchen aims to assist the company in mitigating debt risks and facilitating the resumption of production, ensuring timely procurement and supply of raw materials [2] - The company intends to provide guarantees for both Weifang Xingchen and Jilin Xingchen to ensure smooth financing operations, thereby enhancing profitability and debt repayment capabilities [2] - Both Weifang Xingchen and Jilin Xingchen have good credit status, with no default risks or adverse effects on the company and its shareholders, particularly minority shareholders [2]