Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index continued to decline, and the degree of "inversion" in the China-US interest rate spread deepened. Both nominal and real yields on 10-year US Treasuries rose, indicating a rebound in inflation expectations [1][6] - Offshore dollar liquidity has marginally tightened, while the domestic interbank funding situation remained overall balanced, with a slight widening of the yield spread between 10-year and 1-year bonds [1][6] Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading heat has decreased, with most major indices experiencing a decline in volatility. Sectors such as light industry, military industry, textile and apparel, chemicals, retail, machinery, computers, pharmaceuticals, steel, and telecommunications are all above the 80th percentile in trading heat [2][6] - The liquidity indicators in the market have also receded, with the non-ferrous metals sector's liquidity indicators above the 50th historical percentile [2][11] Analyst Forecasts - Analysts have adjusted the net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025/2026, with sectors such as steel, retail, machinery, electric power, media, non-ferrous metals, and utilities seeing upward revisions [2][4] - The proportion of stocks with upward revisions in net profit forecasts for 2025/2026 has increased, while the proportion of stocks with downward revisions has decreased [4][16] - The net profit forecasts for the ChiNext Index and the SSE 50 have been raised, while those for the CSI 300 have been lowered. The CSI 500's forecasts have seen mixed adjustments [4][16] Northbound Trading - Northbound trading activity has decreased, with an overall net sell-off of A-shares. The average daily trading volume for northbound trading has also declined [3][5] - Northbound funds have primarily net bought sectors such as electric power and utilities, and electronics, while net selling occurred in sectors like computers, media, food and beverage, agriculture, and home appliances [3][5] Margin Financing - Margin financing activity has slightly decreased but remains at a high point since late March 2025. The net buying in margin financing was 12.607 billion yuan, with significant net purchases in sectors like electronics, military, chemicals, and electric power [4][6] - The proportion of financing purchases in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, real estate, telecommunications, and military has increased, with non-ferrous metals and telecommunications above the 50th historical percentile [4][8] Fund Activity - The positions of actively managed equity funds have decreased, with overall net redemptions in ETFs, primarily from institutional ETFs. Active equity funds have increased positions in sectors like military, telecommunications, computers, and pharmaceuticals, while reducing positions in agriculture, retail, and consumer services [4][8] - Newly established equity funds have seen a significant decline in scale, with both active and passive equity fund sizes decreasing [4][8]

资金跟踪系列之一百六十七 [Table_Author] | 分析师 | 牟一凌 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书： S0100521120002 | | | 邮箱： | mouyiling@mszq.com | | 分析师 | 梅锴 | | 执业证书： S0100522070001 | | | 邮箱： | meikai@mszq.com | | 研究助理 季宏坤 | | | 执业证书： S0100124070013 | | | 邮箱： | jihongkun@mszq.com | 北上继续回流，个人活跃度季节性回落 2025 年 05 月 06 日 ➢ 宏观流动性：上周(20250428-20250430)美元指数继续回升，中美利差"倒 挂"程度有所加深。10Y 美债名义/实际利率均上升，通胀预期不变。对于海外而 言，流动性边际有所宽松(3 个月日元与美元互换基差回升)。对于国内而言，银 行间资金面整体宽松，期限利差(10Y-1Y)继续收窄。 ➢ 交易热度、波动与流动性：市场交易热度略回落，波动率有所回升。行业上， 商贸零售、纺服、消费者服务、房地产、电力及公用事业、轻工、化工、机械、 银行等交易 ...