宏观流动性： 上周美元指数继续回升，中美利差"倒挂"程度有所收敛。10Y 美债名义/实际利率均回落，通胀预期回升。离岸美元 流动性边际宽松，国内银行间资金面均衡偏松，期限利差(10Y-1Y)走阔。 交易热度、波动与流动性： 市场交易热度继续回升，主要指数波动率均回升。大多数行业的交易热度处于 90%分位数以上，具体而言：军工、轻 工、化工、传媒、纺服等板块的交易热度均处于 90%分位数以上。通信板块的波动率均依然处于 80%历史分位数以上。 机构调研： 电子、医药、计算机、机械、电新等板块调研热度居前，石油石化、计算机、农林牧渔、军工、汽车等调研热度上升。 分析师预测： 全 A 的 2026 年净利润预测被下调。行业上，有色、化工、交运、消费者服务、纺服等 26 年净利润预测被上调。指数 上，上证 50、沪深 300 的 26 年净利润预测被上调，创业板指、中证 500 的 26 年净利润预测被下调。风格上，大盘/ 中盘成长、大盘/中盘价值的 26 年的净利润预测均被上调，小盘成长/价值的 26 年的净利润预测均被下调。 北上活跃度继续回升，延续大幅净买入 A 股 基于前 10 大活跃股口径，北上在家电、传媒 ...

消息面上，野村发表报告，预计京东健康2025年下半年业绩将好过市场预期，主要因2025年第四季流感 病例激增带动药品需求上升。该机构预估京东健康2025年第四季营收将达200亿元人民币，按年增长 22%，受惠来自药品/营养品/医疗器材业务分别实现30%、20%及10%按年销售增长。2025年第四季流感 病例扩散带动相关药品，占药品销售额高单位数百分比，及医疗设备如家用氧气浓缩机销售。与此同 时，营养品牌在2025年第四季持续推行有效营销活动，强化其稳健增长态势。 中金发布研报称，考虑到原研品类放量趋势依旧且流感品种需求强劲，上调京东健康25年及26年收入预 测2%至725亿元及817亿元，同时考虑毛利率改善趋势及潜在利息收入波动的综合影响，该行分别上调 25年及26年non-IFRS净利润4%及1%至65亿元及64亿元。首次引入27年收入预测912亿元及non-IFRS净 利润预测68亿元。考虑到近期板块表现略有波动，基于SOTP维持目标价71.4港币不变(23%上行空间)， 维持跑赢行业评级。 金吾财讯 | 京东健康(06618)股价上行，截至发稿，涨5.58%，报61.45港元，成交额2.3亿港元。 消息 ...

宏观流动性： 上周美元指数有所回升，中美利差"倒挂"程度有所加深。10Y 美债名义/实际利率均回升，通胀预期回升。离岸美元 流动性边际宽松，国内银行间资金面均衡，期限利差(10Y-1Y)收窄。 交易热度、波动与流动性： 市场交易热度继续回升，主要指数波动率均回升。军工、纺服、轻工、商贸零售、消费者服务等板块的交易热度均处 于 80%分位数以上。通信、电新、电子、化工板块的波动率均依然处于 80%历史分位数以上。 机构调研： 基于前 10 大活跃股口径，北上在有色、军工、汽车等板块的买卖总额之比上升，在电子、通信、电新等板块回落。基 于北上持股数量小于 3000 万股的标的口径：北上主要净买入电子、军工、有色等板块，净卖出食品饮料、纺服等板 块。综合来看：北上可能主要净买入军工、有色、汽车、机械、非银等板块，净卖出食品饮料等板块。 两融活跃度有所回落，但仍处于 2025 年 11 月以来的相对高位 上周两融净卖出 22.73 亿元，行业上，主要净买入军工、电力及公用事业、传媒等板块，净卖出非银、通信、电子等 板块。电力及公用事业、家电、食品饮料等板块融资买入占比上升。风格上，两融仅净卖出中盘成长、大盘价值。 龙 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Liquidity - The US dollar index continued to decline, and the degree of "inversion" in the China-US interest rate spread has deepened. The nominal and real interest rates of 10Y US Treasuries have both rebounded, indicating a rise in inflation expectations [1][14][18]. - Offshore US dollar liquidity remains marginally loose, while the domestic interbank funding environment is balanced and slightly loose. The yield spread between 10Y and 1Y government bonds continues to widen [1][20]. Group 2: Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading activity has continued to decline, with trading heat in sectors such as textiles, light industry, consumer services, and military industry remaining above the 80th percentile [2][26]. - The volatility of major indices has mostly continued to decrease, while the volatility in the communication, electric power, and electronics sectors remains above the 80th historical percentile [2][32]. Group 3: Institutional Research - Research activity is high in sectors such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, machinery, electric power, and non-ferrous metals, with rising research interest in the automotive, electronics, and military sectors [3][42]. Group 4: Analyst Forecasts - The net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted, with increases in the real estate, steel, consumer services, light industry, and pharmaceutical sectors [4][21]. - The net profit forecasts for the CSI 300 index for 2025 and 2026 have been raised, while the forecasts for the SSE 50 have been lowered. The net profit forecasts for the CSI 500 and ChiNext indices have been adjusted in opposite directions [4][23]. Group 5: Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has continued to decline, with a net sell-off in A-shares. The ratio of buy and sell amounts in sectors such as communication, non-ferrous metals, and non-bank financials has increased, while it has decreased in electric power, automotive, and home appliance sectors [5][29]. - Northbound trading primarily net bought in the communication, military, and machinery sectors, while net selling occurred in the media, real estate, and electronics sectors [5][33]. Group 6: Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity has again declined, remaining at low levels since late July 2025. The net buying was mainly in the military, non-ferrous metals, and communication sectors, while net selling occurred in chemicals, electric power, and construction sectors [6][35]. - The trading heat in the "Dragon and Tiger List" has slightly decreased, with military, building materials, and light industry sectors showing relatively high trading amounts [6][41]. Group 7: Fund Activity - The positions of actively managed equity funds have continued to decline, with a slight net subscription in ETFs. Active equity funds have mainly increased positions in media, consumer services, and banking sectors, while reducing positions in non-ferrous metals, electronics, and automotive sectors [7][45]. - The newly established equity fund scale has continued to decline, with active funds seeing a rebound while passive funds have decreased. ETFs related to TMT, pharmaceuticals, and electric power sectors have been primarily net bought, while financial real estate, military, and chemical sectors have seen net selling [7][52][53].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that China COSCO Shipping Holdings maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook on long-term freight rates due to over 25% of existing cargo ships being over 20 years old and needing to be scrapped between 2028 and 2030 [1] Group 1: Industry Outlook - The management highlights strong growth in cargo volume, particularly on routes in Southeast Asia, Europe, and Africa [1] - There is a noted rebound in spot freight rates in October, driven by Black Friday and the anticipated tariffs on Chinese goods leading to early shipments [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - The third-quarter earnings exceeded expectations, attributed to strong freight performance, especially in Asia routes, and better cost control compared to peers [1] - Based on the performance, net profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been raised by 25% to 46%, reflecting better-than-expected third-quarter earnings and delays in port fees between China and the U.S. [1] Group 3: Target Price Adjustments - The target price for H-shares has been increased from HKD 11.5 to HKD 12.5, while the target price for A-shares has been raised from CNY 14.7 to CNY 16 [1] - The rating remains at "Neutral" [1]

Group 1: Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index continued to rise, and the degree of "inversion" in the China-US interest rate spread deepened, with inflation expectations increasing [1][14] - Offshore dollar liquidity has generally loosened, while the domestic interbank funding environment remains balanced and slightly loose [1][18] Group 2: Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading activity has rebounded, with volatility in major indices, except for the Shenzhen 100, also increasing [2][25] - Trading activity in sectors such as telecommunications, electronics, electric new energy, chemicals, machinery, and real estate remains above the 80th percentile [2][25] - The volatility of major indices has mostly increased, with telecommunications and electronics remaining above the 80th historical percentile [2][31] Group 3: Institutional Research - Research activity is high in sectors such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, food and beverage, and telecommunications, with a month-on-month increase in research intensity for pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, electronics, textiles, and retail [3][43] Group 4: Analyst Forecasts - Net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025/2026 have been adjusted, with non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, electric power, and public utilities seeing upward revisions [4][21] - The proportion of stocks with upward revisions in net profit forecasts for 2025/2026 has decreased [4][17] - The net profit forecasts for the CSI 500 index for 2025/2026 have been downgraded [4][23] Group 5: Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has rebounded, with a net buying of A-shares overall [5][31] - In the top 10 active stocks, the buying and selling ratio in sectors such as electric new energy, telecommunications, and non-ferrous metals has increased [5][32] - For stocks with northbound holdings of less than 30 million shares, net buying was mainly in the computer, electronics, and chemicals sectors [5][33] Group 6: Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity has continued to slightly rebound, reaching a three-week high [6][35] - The main net buying in margin financing was in electric new energy, telecommunications, and machinery sectors [6][36] - The proportion of financing purchases in banking, media, and pharmaceuticals has increased month-on-month [6][38] Group 7: Fund Activity - The positions of actively managed equity funds have increased, with net subscriptions in ETFs overall [7][45] - Actively managed equity funds have mainly increased positions in telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, and electric new energy sectors [7][46] - New equity fund establishment scales have rebounded, with both actively and passively managed funds seeing increases [7][50]

Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index has rebounded, and the degree of "inversion" in the China-US interest rate spread has narrowed. The nominal/real interest rates of 10Y US Treasuries remained unchanged or declined, with inflation expectations rising [1][15]. - Offshore dollar liquidity has generally loosened, and the domestic interbank funding environment is balanced and slightly loose, with the term spread (10Y-1Y) narrowing [1][22]. Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading activity has continued to decline, with volatility across major indices also decreasing. More than half of the sectors still have trading activity above the 80th percentile [2][29]. - The volatility of major indices has decreased, while the volatility of the communication and electronics sectors remains above the 80th percentile [2][34]. Institutional Research - The electronic, pharmaceutical, non-ferrous metals, communication, and machinery sectors have seen high research activity, with consumer services, light industry, chemicals, steel, and non-ferrous metals sectors experiencing a month-on-month increase in research activity [3][46]. Analyst Forecasts - Analysts have continued to raise net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025/2026. The proportion of stocks with upward revisions in net profit forecasts has increased [4][52]. - The net profit forecasts for the financial, non-ferrous metals, machinery, coal, and electric new energy sectors for 2025/2026 have been raised [4][21]. - The net profit forecasts for the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and ChiNext indices for 2025/2026 have been increased, while the CSI 500 index has seen mixed adjustments [4][23]. Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has declined, continuing a net selling trend in A-shares. The trading volume ratio in sectors such as communication, non-ferrous metals, and banking has increased, while it has decreased in automotive, non-bank financials, and electronics [5][31]. - Northbound trading has mainly net bought in the pharmaceutical, non-ferrous metals, and electric new energy sectors, while net selling occurred in electronics, communication, and food and beverage sectors [5][33]. Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity has seen a slight rebound, with a net purchase of 27 billion yuan last week. The main net purchases were in the electronic, communication, and non-bank financial sectors, while net sales occurred in automotive, non-ferrous metals, and machinery sectors [6][35]. Hot Stocks Trading - The trading volume on the "Dragon and Tiger List" has continued to decline, but the total trading volume on this list as a percentage of total A-share trading has increased. Sectors such as coal, building materials, and oil and petrochemicals have a relatively high and rising proportion of trading volume on this list [7][41]. Active Equity Fund Positions - The positions of actively managed equity funds have decreased, while ETFs have seen overall net redemptions. Actively managed equity funds have mainly increased positions in communication, electronics, and computing sectors, while reducing positions in home appliances, banking, and food and beverage sectors [8][45]. - The correlation between actively managed equity funds and large/mid-cap growth and small-cap value has increased [8][48]. - New equity fund establishment has increased, with the scale of actively managed funds decreasing and passively managed funds increasing [8][50].

Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index has declined, and the degree of "inversion" in the China-US interest rate spread has narrowed. The nominal and real yields of 10Y US Treasuries have decreased or remained unchanged, driven by a decline in inflation expectations [2][13][19]. Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading activity has decreased, with the volatility of major indices showing mixed trends. The trading activity in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, electric vehicles, steel, electronics, automotive, and real estate remains above the 80th percentile [3][25]. - The volatility of major indices, including the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300, has increased, while the volatility of the ChiNext and STAR Market indices has decreased. Sectors like electronics, automotive, and chemicals have seen a rapid increase in volatility [3][31]. Analyst Predictions - Analysts have continued to raise net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025 and 2026. The proportion of stocks with upward revisions in net profit forecasts has increased across various sectors, including retail, finance, light industry, and public utilities [4][50]. - The net profit forecasts for major indices such as the CSI 300, CSI 500, and SSE 50 have been adjusted upwards for 2025 and 2026, while the ChiNext index has seen mixed adjustments [4][23][24]. Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has decreased, with an overall net sell-off in A-shares. The trading volume ratio in sectors like non-ferrous metals, electronics, and banking has increased, while it has decreased in pharmaceuticals, machinery, and communications [5][29]. - Northbound trading has shown a net buying trend in sectors such as electronics, automotive, and electric vehicles, while net selling has occurred in computing, pharmaceuticals, and communications [5][33]. Margin Financing Activity - The activity of margin financing has dropped to its lowest point since mid-September 2025, with a net sell-off of 12.812 billion yuan. The main net buying has been in sectors like non-ferrous metals, military, and pharmaceuticals, while net selling has occurred in TMT, finance, and automotive sectors [6][35]. Fund Activity - The positions of actively managed equity funds have continued to increase, with significant net subscriptions in ETFs, primarily driven by individual investors. Active equity funds have mainly increased their positions in electronics, automotive, and media sectors, while reducing exposure in communications, finance, and real estate [6][8][52]. - The newly established equity fund scale has rebounded, with both active and passive funds seeing an increase in size. ETFs related to financials, non-ferrous metals, and electronics have been the main net buyers, while those related to communications, chemicals, and transportation have seen net selling [6][53].

Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index has declined, and the degree of "inversion" in the China-US interest rate spread has narrowed [2][13] - The nominal and real yields of 10-year US Treasuries have decreased or remained unchanged, with inflation expectations also falling [2][19] - Offshore dollar liquidity has tightened, while domestic interbank liquidity remains balanced and slightly loose [2][19] Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading activity has decreased, with the volatility of major indices showing mixed trends [3][25] - Trading heat in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, electric vehicles, steel, electronics, automotive, and real estate remains above the 80th percentile [3][25] - The volatility of the communication and electronics sectors remains above the 80th historical percentile [3][31] Analyst Predictions - Analysts have continued to raise net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025 and 2026 [4][43] - The proportion of stocks with upward revisions in net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 has increased [4][43] - Sectors such as retail, finance, light industry, and public utilities have seen upward revisions in net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [4][43][44] Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has decreased, with overall net selling of A-shares [5][29] - In the top 10 active stocks, the trading volume ratio for sectors like non-ferrous metals, electronics, and banking has increased [5][32] - Northbound trading has shown net buying in sectors such as electronics, automotive, and electric vehicles, while net selling occurred in computing, pharmaceuticals, and communications [5][33] Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity has dropped to its lowest point since mid-September 2025 [6][35] - The main net buying in margin financing has been in sectors like non-ferrous metals, military, and pharmaceuticals [6][38] - The proportion of financing purchases in sectors such as oil and petrochemicals, steel, and public utilities has increased [6][38] Fund Activity - The positions of actively managed equity funds have continued to rise, with net subscriptions in ETFs persisting [8][45] - Actively managed equity funds have mainly increased positions in sectors like electronics, automotive, and media [8][46] - New fund establishment has seen a rebound, with both actively and passively managed funds experiencing growth [8][50]

Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index continued to decline, and the degree of "inversion" in the China-US interest rate spread has narrowed [1][13] - Both nominal and real yields on 10-year US Treasuries have decreased, indicating a slight decline in inflation expectations [1][13] - Offshore dollar liquidity has become more accommodative, while the domestic interbank funding situation has remained balanced, initially tightening and then loosening [1][20] Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading activity has continued to decline, with major index volatility also decreasing [2][27] - Trading activity in sectors such as consumer services, retail, chemicals, electric power, light industry, and real estate remains above the 80th percentile [2][27] - Most industry volatility remains below the 80th percentile, with notable increases in volatility for sectors like real estate, electronics, and transportation [2][33][37] Institutional Research - Research interest is highest in sectors such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, communications, non-ferrous metals, and computers, with a rising interest in machinery, chemicals, food and beverage, light industry, and electric power [3][45] Analyst Forecasts - Analysts have continued to lower net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025/2026 [4][52] - Net profit forecasts for sectors including real estate, building materials, electric power and utilities, and banking have been raised for 2025/2026 [4][52] - The net profit forecasts for the ChiNext Index have been lowered, while those for the CSI 500, SSE 50, and CSI 300 have been adjusted up or down [4][52] Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has decreased, continuing a trend of net selling [5][31] - In the top 10 active stocks, the buy-sell ratio for sectors like electronics, communications, and electric power has increased, while it has decreased in finance, food and beverage, and automotive sectors [5][32] - Northbound trading has shown net buying in sectors such as electronics, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and construction, while net selling has occurred in computers, communications, and chemicals [5][33] Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity has rapidly increased, reaching the highest point since "924" [6][35] - The main net buying in margin financing has been in sectors like electronics, electric power, and non-ferrous metals, with significant increases in financing buy-in ratios for coal, home appliances, and consumer services [6][38] - Margin financing has shown net buying across various styles of stocks, including large, mid, and small-cap growth and value stocks [6][39] Active Equity Fund Positions - Active equity funds have seen a decrease in positions, while ETFs have continued to experience net subscriptions [7][45] - Active equity funds have primarily increased positions in sectors such as communications, computers, and real estate, while reducing positions in pharmaceuticals, media, and machinery [7][46] - The correlation between active equity funds and mid-cap growth/value has increased, indicating a shift in investment strategy [7][48]