春节前一周美元有所回落，中美利差"倒挂"程度继续收敛。10Y 美债名义/实际利率均回落，通胀预期同样有所回落。 离岸美元流动性边际有所收紧，国内银行间资金面均衡，期限利差(10Y-1Y)收窄。 交易热度、波动与流动性： 市场交易热度继续回落，多数指数的波动率回升。传媒、建材、轻工、通信等板块的交易热度均处于 90%分位数以上。 军工板块的波动率处于 80%分位数以上。 机构调研： 银行、电子、计算机、电新、军工等板块调研热度居前，纺服等板块的调研热度环比仍在上升。 分析师预测： 宏观流动性： 全 A 的 26/27 年净利润预测分别被下调/上调。行业上，有色、传媒、建材、化工、电子等 26/27 年净利润预测均被 上调。指数上，中证 500、创业板指、上证 50 的 26/27 年净利润预测均被上调，沪深 300 的 26/27 年净利润预测分别 被下调/上调。风格上，大盘/中盘价值 26/27 年净利润预测被上调，大盘成长、小盘价值均被下调，中盘/小盘成长 的 26/27 年净利润预测分别被下调/上调。 北上活跃度有所回落，重新小幅净买入 A 股 基于前 10 大活跃股口径，北上在通信、电子、电新等板块的买 ...

创新医疗公告，预计2025年度净利润为负值，归属于上市公司股东的净利润预计在-3300万元至-2600万 元之间，上年同期为-9395.4万元，比上年同期增长64.88%～72.33%。扣除非经常性损益后的净利润预 计在-7500万元至-6800万元之间，上年同期为-5957.41万元，比上年同期下降14.14%～25.89%。营业收 入预计在7.8亿元至8亿元之间，上年同期为8.16亿元。 ...

珂玛科技公告，预计2025年度净利润为2.86亿元至3.36亿元，同比下降8.00%至增长8.00%。预计营业收 入为10.6亿元至10.8亿元，较上年同期增长23.63%至25.96%。 ...

本报告期营业收入、归属于上市公司股东扣除非经常性损益后的净利润较同期增长，主要原因是新产品 推出、市场拓展及费用有效控制。归属于上市公司股东的净利润较同期下降，主要是非经常性损益本报 告期较上年同期下降。本报告期非经常性损益主要包括政府补助、现金管理收益以及证券投资的投资收 益等。预计2025年度归属于上市公司股东非经常性损益对归属于上市公司股东净利润的影响金额约900 万元，上年同期对2024年度归属于上市公司股东净利润的影响金额为2,972.50万元。 格隆汇1月21日丨维宏股份(300508.SZ)公布，预计2025年归属于上市公司股东的净利润7,906万元～ 9,663万元，比上年同期变动-17.15%～1.26%，扣除非经常性损益后的净利润7,060万元～8,629万元，比 上年同期增长7.46%～31.34%。 ...

Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index continued to rise, and the degree of "inversion" in the China-US interest rate differential deepened. The nominal and real interest rates of 10Y US Treasuries both increased, indicating a rise in inflation expectations [1][16]. - Offshore dollar liquidity showed marginal easing, while the domestic interbank funding situation remained balanced, initially tightening and then loosening. The yield spread between 10Y and 1Y bonds widened [1][23]. Market Trading Activity, Volatility, and Liquidity - Market trading activity continued to rise, with the volatility of the CSI 1000, STAR 50, and ChiNext Index all increasing. Sectors such as military, media, computing, retail, and consumer services had trading activity above the 80th percentile [2][28]. - The volatility of the CSI 1000, STAR 50, and ChiNext Index increased, while the volatility of various sectors remained below the 80th historical percentile [2][35]. - Market liquidity indicators improved, but all sectors remained below the 50th historical percentile [2][40]. Institutional Research - The electronic, pharmaceutical, computing, non-ferrous metals, and machinery sectors had the highest research activity, while banking, real estate, transportation, petroleum and petrochemicals, and retail sectors saw a month-on-month increase in research activity [3][47]. Analyst Forecasts - The net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2026/2027 were adjusted, with increases in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, chemicals, light industry, electronics, and real estate [4][21]. - The net profit forecasts for the ChiNext Index and CSI 500 for 2026/2027 were raised, while the forecasts for the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 were adjusted up and down, respectively [4][23]. - Mid-cap and small-cap growth sectors saw upward adjustments in their net profit forecasts for 2026/2027, while mid-cap and small-cap value sectors were adjusted down [4][27]. Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity rebounded, continuing to net buy A-shares. The trading volume ratio in sectors such as computing, home appliances, and non-bank financials increased, while it decreased in communication, electronics, and electric new energy sectors [5][32]. - For stocks with northbound holdings of less than 30 million shares, the main net purchases were in TMT, machinery, and military sectors, while net sales occurred in electric new energy, construction, and agriculture sectors [5][33]. Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity slightly declined but remained at a relatively high level since November 2025. The net purchases were mainly in TMT, non-bank financials, and electric new energy sectors, while net sales occurred in building materials and petroleum and petrochemicals [6][35]. - The proportion of financing purchases in the pharmaceutical, construction, and coal sectors increased month-on-month [6][38]. Hot Stocks on the Dragon and Tiger List - The trading activity on the Dragon and Tiger list continued to rise, with the total trading volume and its proportion of total A-share trading both increasing. The military, media, and automotive sectors had relatively high and rising trading volumes on this list [7][41]. Active Equity Fund Positions and ETF Trends - Active equity funds significantly reduced their positions, while ETFs experienced substantial net redemptions. Active equity funds mainly increased positions in petroleum and petrochemicals, real estate, and coal sectors, while reducing positions in TMT, military, and machinery sectors [8][46]. - The correlation of active equity funds with small-cap growth and large/small-cap value increased, while the correlation with large/mid-cap growth and mid-cap value decreased [8][48]. - New equity fund establishment scales increased, with both active and passive funds seeing a rise in establishment [8][50]. - ETFs tracking indices such as the Shanghai 300, STAR 50, and Shanghai 50 saw major net redemptions, while those tracking computing, non-ferrous metals, and media sectors saw major net purchases [8][52].

Core Viewpoint - Jiahe Food (605300.SH) expects a significant decline in net profit for the fiscal year 2025, projecting a decrease of 46.38% to 64.25% compared to the previous year [1] Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 30.01 million to 45.01 million yuan for 2025, which represents a reduction of 38.93 million to 53.93 million yuan year-on-year [1] - The expected net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between 8.57 million to 12.85 million yuan, indicating a decrease of 57.68 million to 61.96 million yuan compared to the previous year [1] - This results in a year-on-year decline of 81.78% to 87.85% in the adjusted net profit [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Shenyu Co., Ltd. (300563.SZ), expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 70.5 million to 79.5 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 11.37% to 0.05% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between 70.08 million and 79.08 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 83.86% to 107.47% [1] - The company sold subsidiary equity in Q1 2024, which increased investment income from the previous year, but the investment income for the reporting period decreased significantly, leading to a year-on-year decline in net profit attributable to shareholders [1] - The main business revenue of the parent company increased year-on-year due to expanded demand in downstream application fields and market consumption upgrades, resulting in an increase in operating profit [1] Group 2: Cost and Incentives - The share-based payment expenses related to the company's equity incentive plan decreased year-on-year during the reporting period, contributing to an increase in operating profit [1] - The estimated impact of non-recurring gains and losses on the company's net profit for 2025 is approximately 420,000 yuan, compared to 41.42 million yuan in 2024, primarily from investment income obtained from the sale of subsidiary equity [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company Shenyu Co., Ltd. (300563.SZ) expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 70.5 million to 79.5 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 11.37% to 0.05% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between 70.08 million and 79.08 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 83.86% to 107.47% [1] - The company sold subsidiary equity in Q1 2024, which increased investment income from the previous year, but the investment income for the reporting period significantly decreased, leading to a reduction in net profit attributable to shareholders [1] - The main business revenue of the parent company increased year-on-year due to expanded demand in downstream application fields and market consumption upgrades, resulting in an increase in operating profit [1] Group 2: Cost and Expenses - The share-based payment expenses related to the company's equity incentive plan decreased year-on-year during the reporting period, contributing to an increase in operating profit [1] - The estimated impact of non-recurring gains and losses on the company's net profit for 2025 is approximately 420,000 yuan, compared to 41.42 million yuan in 2024, primarily from investment income obtained from the sale of subsidiary equity [1]

Group 1 - The company expects a net profit for the fiscal year 2025 to be between 792 million to 910 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 0.00% to 15.00% [1] - The projected operating revenue for 2025 is estimated to be between 8.559 billion to 9.337 billion yuan [1] - The company aims to achieve over 10% growth in operating revenue while maintaining a steady approach, although increased market competition is expected to lead to a decline in gross margin year-on-year, resulting in profit growth lagging behind revenue growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - Dongfeng Technology (600081.SH) expects a significant decline in net profit for the year 2025, projecting a decrease of 74% to 80% compared to the previous year [1] Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company ranging from 18 million to 24 million yuan for 2025, which represents a reduction of 6,728 million to 7,328 million yuan year-on-year [1] - The expected net profit, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, is projected to be between -50 million to -40 million yuan, indicating a decrease of 294% to 343% compared to the previous year [1]