Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by a total of 125 basis points from Q4 2025 to Q1 2027, which will benefit Hong Kong real estate companies by reducing interest expenses and stimulating the real estate market [1] - The Chief Executive's recent policy report introduced more flexible land acquisition and exchange models, which is believed to accelerate the development of the Northern Metropolis and help Hysan Development (00012) monetize its substantial farmland reserves [1] - Hysan Development holds approximately 41.9 million square feet of farmland with a historical average cost of HKD 227 per square foot, while recent land acquisition prices exceed HKD 1,000 per square foot, indicating significant potential gains in the coming years [1] Group 2 - The company has slightly raised its profit forecasts for Hysan Development for 2025 to 2027, reflecting the impact of reduced interest expenses, and upgraded its rating to "Buy" with a target price increase from HKD 25.9 to HKD 32.68 [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by a total of 125 basis points between Q4 2025 and Q1 2027, which will benefit Hong Kong real estate companies by reducing interest expenses and stimulating the real estate market [1] - The Chief Executive's recent policy report introduced more flexible land acquisition and exchange models, which is believed to accelerate the development of the Northern Metropolis and help Hysan Development (00012) monetize its substantial farmland reserves [1] - Hysan Development holds approximately 41.9 million square feet of farmland with a historical average cost of HKD 227 per square foot, while recent land acquisition prices exceed HKD 1,000 per square foot, indicating significant potential gains in the coming years [1] Group 2 - The company has slightly raised its profit forecasts for Hysan Development for 2025 to 2027 to reflect the impact of reduced interest expenses and upgraded its rating to "Buy" with a target price increase from HKD 25.9 to HKD 32.68 [2]

市场预计未来18 个月内美联储将再降息5 次。据彭博的共识预测，美联储将在2025 年4 季度再降息2 次，2026 年至2027 年1 季度再降息3 次，总计将进一步降息125 个基点。我们认为，降息进程将在2025 年剩余时间和2026 年持续，这将有利于提振香港房地产公司：1）降低利息支出；2）进一步激活房地 产市场，促进房地产开发板块的销售和利润率回升；以及3）投资物业组合的潜在资产增值。 施政报告将加速北部都会区的发展。同时，中国香港特别行政区行政长官李家超在9 月17 日发布的施政 报告中，公布更灵活土地收地和交换模式，我们认为北部都会区加快开发将有助恒基地产在该地区的庞 大农田土地储备变现。恒基地产拥有约4,190 万平方尺的农地土地储备，历史平均成本仅为每平方呎227 港元（近期土地收地价超过每平方呎1,000 港元），北部都会区开发的加速或将为恒基地产在未来几年 带来可观的潜在收益、盈利和现金流。 上调评级至买入，目标价上调至32.68 港元：我们相信利率进一步下行后，公司核心业务短期风险已有 所下降，基于美联储降息带来的市场资金流动性、资产价值提升预期以及北部都会区农地可能加速变现 的影响 ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Buy" with a target price raised to HKD 32.68, reflecting a potential upside of 16.9% from the current price of HKD 27.96 [1][5]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points is expected to further lower interest expenses for the company, enhancing its valuation and performance in the real estate market [2][5]. - The acceleration of development in the Northern Metropolis area, as announced in the Chief Executive's policy address, is anticipated to benefit the company significantly due to its substantial agricultural land reserves in the region [5]. - The report projects an increase in the company's net asset value per share to HKD 65.4, up from HKD 57.6, based on improved liquidity and asset value expectations following the interest rate cuts [5]. Financial Overview - The company is expected to generate revenues of HKD 27,570 million in 2023, with a projected growth of 14.9% in 2025 [4][9]. - Core profit estimates for 2025 are set at HKD 9,257 million, reflecting a decrease of 5.3% compared to the previous year [4][9]. - The company's price-to-earnings ratio is projected to be 14.6 times in 2025, indicating a slight increase from 13.8 times in 2024 [4][9]. - The dividend yield is expected to remain stable at 6.4% over the forecast period [4][9]. Market Context - The report highlights that the anticipated further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could lead to a total reduction of 125 basis points by early 2027, which would positively impact the Hong Kong real estate sector [5]. - The company holds approximately 41.9 million square feet of agricultural land reserves, with a historical average cost of HKD 227 per square foot, which is significantly lower than recent land acquisition prices [5].

同时，施政报告将加速北部都会区的发展。新政策公布更有弹性土地收地和交换模式，该行认为北部都 会区加快开发将有助恒地在该地区的庞大农地土地储备变现。该公司拥有约4190万平方英尺的农地土地 储备，历史平均成本料每平方英尺277港元，北部都会区加速，或将为公司未来几年带来可观的潜在收 益、盈利和现金流。 基于上述因素，该行相信利率进一步下行后，公司核心业务短期风险已下降，基于降息带来的市场资金 流动性、资产价值提升预期、北部都会区农地可能加速变现的影响，调高对公司资产净值预测至每股 65.4港元，并按折让50%计算出目标价，同时轻微上调2025-2027年利润预测以反映利息支出减少的影 响。 美联储9月17日宣布下调基准利率25个基点。根据机构共识预测，美联储将在2025年第4季再降息2次， 2026年至2027年第1季再降息3次，总计将进一步降息125个基点。该行认为，降息进程将在2025年剩余 时间和2026年持续，这将有利于提振香港房地产公司：1)降低利息支出;2)进一步激活房地产市场，促进 房地产开发板块的销售和利润率回升;3)投资物业组合的潜在资产增值。 智通财经APP获悉，交银国际发布研报称，上调恒基 ...

美联储9月17日宣布下调基准利率25个基点。根据机构共识预测，美联储将在2025年第4季再降息2次， 2026年至2027年第1季再降息3次，总计将进一步降息125个基点。该行认为，降息进程将在2025年剩余 时间和2026年持续，这将有利于提振香港房地产公司：1)降低利息支出;2)进一步激活房地产市场，促进 房地产开发板块的销售和利润率回升;3)投资物业组合的潜在资产增值。 基于上述因素，该行相信利率进一步下行后，公司核心业务短期风险已下降，基于降息带来的市场资金 流动性、资产价值提升预期、北部都会区农地可能加速变现的影响，调高对公司资产净值预测至每股 65.4港元，并按折让50%计算出目标价，同时轻微上调2025-2027年利润预测以反映利息支出减少的影 响。 交银国际发布研报称，上调恒基地产(00012)目标价26.2%，从25.9港元升至32.68港元，上调评级至"买 入"。 同时，施政报告将加速北部都会区的发展。新政策公布更有弹性土地收地和交换模式，该行认为北部都 会区加快开发将有助恒地在该地区的庞大农地土地储备变现。该公司拥有约4190万平方英尺的农地土地 储备，历史平均成本料每平方英尺277港元 ...